Saturday Forecast

71 Comments

2:53AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 4-8)…
A split weekend. Though not totally sunny today, the feel of summer will be there as dew points are up around 60 or in the lower 60s. However, with weak pressure gradient, even though the air mass is warm, there will be a sea breeze near the coast, making it cooler there. Look for low cloudiness in some locations to start the day, even some areas of fog around Cape Cod and the Islands, with that burning away and then some pop up fair weather clouds during the day. A broad area of low pressure will track through the Great Lakes and eventually north of New England Sunday and Monday. The approach of this low will be the reason why Sunday’s weather will be overcast with periods of rain, and though any rain is needed, this particular rain is poorly timed in terms of outdoor activities, many of which are planned graduation ceremonies. By Monday, drier air will arrive and only a few instability showers are possible in the westerly flow on the back side of the low. On Tuesday, another disturbance will come along and produce the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms, but at this moves by, it will sharpen up the trough over the northeast and pull down some cool air from Canada by the middle of next week.
TODAY: Areas of low clouds favoring eastern MA and NH Seacoast and some fog especially Cape Cod and Islands early into mid morning, otherwise sun mixed with clouds. Highs 65-70 outer Cape Cod and Islands, 70s other coastal areas but warmest late morning then cooling, 80-85 interior locations. Wind light variable with sea breezes developing.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-60. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY: Overcast. Patchy rain areas in the morning favoring locations west and north of Boston. More widespread areas of rain arriving during the afternoon with a slight chance of embedded thunder. Highs 65-72. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy with numerous to scattered showers. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the 70s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Late day or evening showers and thunderstorms possible. Lows around 60. Highs around 80 except cooler South Coast.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Lows in the 50s. Highs around 70.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 9-13)…
Mainly fair but below normal temperatures June 9-11. Shower risk increases as temperatures moderate toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 14-18)…
Another cool-down early to mid period with a shower threat to start, then drier weather. Brief wet weather may introduce warmer air by the end of the period.

71 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. TK thank you. It seems as if a prolonged stretch of hot weather is still a ways off.

    I also believe we are looking at the possibility of a sub-tropical low in the Carribean that has a chance of becoming a stronger, more tropical storm.

  2. Lawn question….I was going to put down some lime tomorrow morning (the ph in my lawn is below 5 and is hurting my sod, I only mowed it 2 times this year) and a fertilizer but I am not sure if it will get washed away. I saw on channel 4 that we could get 1/2 to 1 inch of rain tomorrow, is too much rain?

  3. Thanks TK.
    Looks like will be dodging the bullet tomorrow here in SNE in terms of severe weather. Could be a nasty day for the Mid Atlantic region.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Starting the day with a fairly heavy overcast, but 65.8 here at 7:24 AM. Not too shabby.

  5. Now, I fully realize that the Euro temperature grids are often inaccurate, however, this is looking PITIFUL!

    High Temps For Next week and beyond:

    Wed, 6/8 67
    Thu, 6/9 61
    Fri, 6/10 61
    Sat, 6/11 59
    Sun, 6/12 61
    Mon, 6/13 59

    Is this June? Is this a “cool shot” OR an ARCTIC INVASION?

    1. Save those forecasts and then we’ll compare the actual highs to that set of forecast highs. 🙂

      1. Yes, I understand. That is why I prefaced it.
        Let’s see how that plays out. 😀

    1. Yes. I will not say he was the “greatest athlete of all time” because that’s a matter of opinion, but he was a legend, roll model, and I loved what he stood up for. He threw punches for a living, but he preached and practiced peace in life.

      1. I agree, TK. He certainly stood among the greatest. I feel a true sense of loss this morning.

      2. Amen. Ali gave a commencement address at Harvard many moons ago. During that address he delivered perhaps the shortest poem of all time: “Me, we.” His message of unity and peace was inspiring. Ali was a master of many things, including language, in spite of a lack of formal education.

        For those of you who haven’t seen “When We Were Kings” I encourage you to do so.

        2. I would like to be remembered as a man who won the heavyweight title three times.

          Who was humorous and who treated everyone right.

          As a man who never looked down on those who looked up to him.

          And who helped as many people as he could.

          As a man who stood up for his beliefs no matter what.

          As a man who tried to unite all humankind through faith and love.

          And if all that’s too much then I guess I’d settle for being remembered only as a great boxer who became a leader and a champion of his people.

          And I wouldn’t even mind if folks forgot how pretty I was.

          Muhammad Ali

    1. 69.8 here

      Now partly to mostly Sunny, as I look out my observation Window.

      Really a nice day shaping up.

  8. Ali prior to the “rumble in the jungle:”

    “I done wrestled with an alligator, I done tussled with a whale; handcuffed lightning, thrown thunder in jail; only last week, I murdered a rock, injured a stone, hospitalized a brick; I’m so mean I make medicine sick.”

      1. No, I’m waiting for my old jalopy to (not) get its inspection sticker at a gas station in Brookline. Actually, I’m at a Starbucks close to the station. I have a vivid recollection of much of what Ali said.

        2. Ahhh. It was funny as NPR had a long time friend of Ali’s from San Diego on. And they were talking about that famous quote.

  9. I guess I’ll dissent on the Ali stuff. I didn’t care for him one bit. I found his views on segregation very racist. I had relatives killed in Vietnam. Nuff said by me.

  10. I still have people asking me why the weather pattern hasn’t changed yet. Let’s clarify. It has. We were in a blocking pattern for a long time, that more than once took on the classic omega configuration. One of these times we were stuck in the nasty weather portion of this pattern, while two times we were stuck in the fair weather side, making the blocking pattern actually more fair than foul. Since about May 20, the pattern has changed to a more progressive pattern, however the mean trough has been located in the northeast. This is not the same trough, block up and stuck in place, but a series of them, and this particular pattern is not quite done with us yet, and was outline in some of my outlooks as keeping temperatures closer to and even at times below normal in the first half of June. Am I still calling for a hotter than average summer? Absolutely. But it’s spring right now, and this is the pattern we have. Even the significant cool shot upcoming later next week will be part of a progressive trough. This was also accurately predicted by Dr. Cohen, who I agreed with when he posted the blog (check earlier blog entries to find this if you wish).

    More and more I have noticed that the public in general is trying to verify long range forecasts before the forecast period has even started. When did people forget how to listen to their information? Are weather apps to blame? Is ignorant social media sites to blame? Is it a combination? Is it something entirely different? I’m not quite sure what the answer is.

  11. I’ll tell you what it is. People are tired of the cool downs. Most of us are ready for better, sustained warmth. As much as its “still spring”, schools almost out, summer activities are gearing up, and when they see highs in he 60’s and cool weather, it makes people restless. You have to remember that your a met, and have a different perspective than most. People also are more mobile than before. Both in real time and virtually. People are more hooked in to friends and family who live in other parts of the country that have better spring weather than we do. They see friends and family posting stuff with flowers blooming, green grass and trees, in April and it makes them long for nice weather. When the calendar flips to June and cool shots come in its depressing. I know it’s not in the cards for day after day of 80 in early June at our latitude and longitude, but it does get old.tgats my theory anyway.

    1. But in late May and early to even mid June we almost NEVER have “sustained warmth”. The weather has always been like this. But you are completely right about the connection with people in other parts of the country. I just don’t get how in their minds this translates to somehow it should be different than it is here. This is the climate we have here. We’ve always had it here. Some springs are warmer than others, yes. I just don’t know how people can expect something that virtually never happens. It is rather amusing in some ways. 😀

      If you look at the stats, we’ve had a fabulous spring overall. Below normal precipitation (which is not good for water supply or agriculture but has supported many many days of outside activities), and temperatures that have been a shade cooler than average overall but with some significant shots of early warmth. Even many of the “east wind” days have been fair, even mostly sunny. It really is about as good as it gets here. We’re in New England, not the Ohio Valley. And so many seem so bent out of shape about a few cloudy and cool days when people are washing away in Texas and things are blowing away in Kansas. We’re the lucky ones. 🙂

      1. Yes and yes and I agree to a point, however, whether it’s always been like this or not, it is our nature to bitch when things don’t
        go our way and this includes the weather.

        This time of year we want it to be nice. Doesn’t matter that
        it has always been this way. That is the problem.

        I know it’s always been this way. I have seen MORE SPRINGS
        than anyone else on this blog. I KNOW what Springs are like and it is a rare year to have a truly nice Spring. Doesn’t mean that
        we wouldn’t like to see one.

        Yes I know, IF I want nice weather in the Spring I should move, but where? Not the Midwest, not Folorida. Where? California?
        NOPE. There is no place else I’d rather live, yet I still complain.

        It just comes with the territory.

        I will not be changing anytime soon. 😀 😀 😀

        1. Oh believe me I know it’s most folks’ nature to bitch. I just choose not to be like most folks. For me it was an easy choice and very easy to maintain that outlook.

          First fair-weather cumulus popping up now. They should remain fair as they pop underneath variable high cloudiness. So remote is the shower risk that I didn’t even include it in the forecast above.

        2. I have a theory ……

          Take out 6 weeks of last winter, centered around February, and it’s been a stretch of mild autumns and winters and so, when you get many 50 and 60F days during the cold season, like the mid 60s of last Christmas Day, I wonder if people are adjusting to the milder cold season and then expecting more out of May and June ???

          It seems to me the northeast has had many seasons now of warmer than normal cold seasons and slightly cooler than normal springs and it’s almost like the difference between the 2 is slowly disappearing.

          1. I think it’s human nature to expect more out of May and June than what SNE can deliver.

  12. I will never forget Ali lighting the Olympic caldron at the opening ceremony of the 96 Olympics in Atlanta.
    As I said earlier looks like we miss out on big storms tomorrow. Don’t agree with SPC putting western CT in marginal risk. I think it should come up to about NYC area. Will see with the new update around 1:30pm shows.

    1. I think southwestern CT could be in line to get some significant wind with collapsing storms that are more severe to the southwest, so that is likely their reasoning. I did not read any discussions yet today.

  13. Certainly looks like some of the more impressive severe parameters in the warm weather season for the Mid Atlantic region.

  14. Thanks TK. Tried to post yesterday but WordPress ate it 😛

    Had a great week in Silver Spring. Learned a lot about NOAA and received a lot of information. Concluded things Thursday with a tour of the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, which houses the WPC, CPC, and OPC, among others. I’d love to work there someday.

    And as for the cooler weather, I say bring it on. Not a fan of HHH weather, although I’m sure we’ll see our fair share this summer, as usual. I don’t really understand the complaints either; we had a dismal start to May, but even so the month was near to above normal, so everything after the first week had to really be above normal. And June is starting off right where it should be.

    1. I got that fixed and eventually posted. It was a WP issue that was sending some message to spam that should not have been.

    1. Maybe. I’ve seen that on the 384 HR gfs before, only to get pushed out.
      Sorry, I’m just skeptical that’s all.

    2. Oh boy, Can never have it just right. It’s either too cool or too hot.
      That looks like a TORCH!!!

      How about some Goldilocks weather? Impossible save for a day here and there, eh? 😀

  18. AH C’MON!! Not again!

    63 at the facuckta Airport.

    It’s 74.8 here in JP after being 80 or a tad above.

    On a good note, Boston Buoy:

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 60.6 °F

  19. Logan’s new motto should be “welcome to the cool side of Boston, where everything’s chill.”

  20. Question…

    If weather that is doing what it is supposed to do makes you bitch, does bitching make the weather better?

    1. Just trying to figure it out. There may be a second part to this question if anyone answers.

          1. My uncle and aunt lived in Eastie for years and were big fans of it because of the “natural air conditioning”. 🙂 They moved to Malden some years later and my aunt passed away several years ago but my uncle continues to live there. He is 90 and still very alert, can drive, and goes out to dinner with friends and dancing on a regular basis. I hope to grow up to be just like him, ‘cept I won’t want to live in Malden or East Boston. 😀

          2. I lived in Winthrop….even more out there than Eastie…Didn’t mind the weather there one bit.

  21. The process of a seabreeze is simple yet fascinating. A real life weather lab and wonderful teaching tool for young scientific minds. 🙂

    2. Yes, it is and I have well understood it from a young age. I’m just thankfull to be 5-6 miles inland from the water.

      1. It was one of the first processes I learned in meteorology at a very young age. 😀

  22. CPC has finally abandoned their idea, once again, of the wet patterns through day 14. We had one semi-significant rain event for southeastern MA on Memorial Day, tomorrow’s is going to be OK but not super beneficial as again the heaviest will run off quickly and many areas will under-perform model forecasts.

    They still have below normal temps for 6-10 and 8-14. It will hold true easily for the 6-10 but we start to lose the ability to stay cool by the end of the 8-14 so we’ll see the 8-14 trend much warmer in the next couple days as the dates just beyond it now are added.

  23. TK do you agree with the latest SPC outlook putting all of western CT in marginal risk for severe storms tomorrow? I don’t think the warm front gets that far north to warm sector us.

    1. I think it’s a safe forecast because there may be some strong wind gusts associated with weakening storms. Marginal covers it, as the conditions will literally be..marginal..for severe storms there.

  27. this is to do with the Patriots
    At the red sox last night. Arian foster was seen and saying he was here to sign with the patriots.

    If Brady needs to serve a suspension and even when Brady returns, A good running game could help big when it comes to games against Denver and Cardinals.

  28. According to Barry at 6:00 pm obs. Logan was 64 while Fenway was 75. The distance between the two locals can’t be no more than two miles as the crow flies, correct?

  29. Man long 12 hr job today over 10 yds of mulch spread and removing of old mulch . I’m hurting . Sometimes I wonder what the hell did I get into starting this up 9 weeks ago . I just can’t catch my breath it’s off to red hot start and no sign of stopping . I need a dry am so I can get the pool area cleaned and remove the cover.

  30. Already seeing hints of a different set of atmospheric variables in play for the northern hemisphere warm season.

    By today’s date in 2015, the eastern Pacific had already had 2 major hurricanes and a 3rd hurricane within another week.

    At the same time, the Atlantic side seems to be giving off early season signs of being more active compared to 2016.

    So, does that offer any hints for possible dominant patterns during this thermal summer ? Don’t know, but I think it portends to likely differences in the hemisphere’s overall pattern compared to last summer. I’d be surprised if by mid September, we compared new England’s summer 2015 to summer 2016 and saw something very similar.

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