Sunday Forecast

106 Comments

2:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 5-9)…
All is on track as a broad area of low pressure has spread its canopy of cloudiness across the region. Initial rain from this system will be spotty, light, and mostly northwest of Boston through early afternoon, and then a couple to a few rounds of moderate to heavy rain will cross the region from southwest to northeast later in the afternoon into tonight, with a good chance of some embedded thunder too. There will be no severe storms, however, as that support for that activity will be far to the south, across the Middle Atlantic States. Behind this rain, drier air moves in Monday on the south side of this elongated low, and it will be rather warm, but still unstable enough so that a shower or thunderstorm may pop up during the day. Another disturbance comes along with a risk of additional showers later Tuesday. A shot of unseasonably cool air will follow this for midweek, with a few instability showers Wednesday and dry weather Thursday.
TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog Cape Cod early. Scattered very light rain mainly northwest of Boston at times through early afternoon. General areas of rain, some moderate to heavy, and a chance of embedded thunder, moving in from southwest to northeast later in the day. Highs 64-72, coolest South Coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast through midnight with episodes of rain and possible thunder. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 57-64. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible. Highs 78-86. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered midday and afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Lows 55-62. Highs 68-76.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Morning showers likely. Isolated afternoon showers. Lows 55-62. Highs 66-74.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 48-55. Highs 65-72.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 10-14)…
Cool with risk of rain late June 10. Isolated showers and cool June 11. Fair and milder June 12. Mild with a risk of rain or showers June 13. Chance of showers/thunderstorms June 14, warmer at that time.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 15-19)…
Fair and cooler early in the period. Risk of brief rain mid to late period with moderating temperatures.

106 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Sure looks like a pretty good slug of rain for this morning and then perhaps a break.

    I am wondering IF the Sox can get their game in during that break?

    It will probably fill in? We shall see.

  4. Thanks TK. Today’s rain will probably disappoint in eastern MA. The latest HRRR shows amounts generally near half an inch, with spotty higher/lower amounts. Not the widespread inch most seemed to be banking on. Higher amounts in NH. Will get rid of some pollen at least, but not at all a drought buster.

    1. Last night Barry indicated over 2 inches for Boston.

      I don’t trust the Hrrr, so I wouldn’t count on that 1/2 inch.

      We shall see.

  5. Thanks TK!

    Also Thanks JPD for sharing those “wildlife” photos from yesterday especially the goslings with their parents. 🙂

    Unfortunately, goslings are no longer seen in the Public Garden. Their eggs are “oiled” so they can’t hatch and special dogs are used to chase any adult geese away. I do understand the poop and all, but still…

    1. Those were taken by my son on his run around Jamaica Pond.
      There are usually several Goose families around, not only the pond but farther along towards the Muddy River. The source of the Muddy River is Jamaica
      Pond via Ward’s pond. There is an outlet from Jamaica pond that feeds
      Ward’s pond across the road. Ward’s pond empties into the Muddy River.

      I have seen Eagles in the trees that line Jamaica Pond.
      Also swans and cormorants.

      1. That is nice to have wildlife in the neighborhood that is no threat whatsoever to humans. You are very fortunate in that regard especially in a relatively urban area.

        As for the Muddy River, I find it interesting that it can flood Green Line subway if it rains hard enough. The last time was in October 1996.

      2. I had missed the photos so am glad Philip mentioned them. Very nice. I love that wildlife is in the city. I would also love to see an eagle and with all my time spent outdoors am surprised I have not in my life. There are many cormorants at Humarock. I do not remember them from time I was young. We have at least seven nesting swans out this way but They seem to disappear once babies hatch as we have seen only one couple with babies.

          1. Thanks Mass Bay. I believe there are a couple in the west river dam area of Uxbridge and I do have to make it a priority.

    1. Yes! Saw that too. GFS moves that ridge east and moves some really warm 850’s in here around the 15th. Decent ensemble support too. Euro looks similar with ridge placement but lags the GFS a little. Hopefully this has legs and keeps showing up on future runs.

      1. Most signs point to positive AO and shortly after that positive NAO. That will help.

  10. The more widespread forecasts of 1-2+ inches will likely not verify.
    The widespread amounts will be in the 1/2 to 1 inch range with a few heavier swaths being the exception and not the rule. HRRR trend should verify, as it tends to when it downplays things, versus its more typical habit of overdoing it. Still don’t know why this is the case with this model, but there you have it.

  11. I placed a very rare comment on the most recent WBZ weather blog entry this morning. Hoping Barry writes one up today.

  12. In other news, Tropical Depression Three has formed near the Yucatan Channel. Will likely become “Colin” and bring a lot of wet weather to Florida. Not an issue for us. Should it become Colin, it’ll be the earliest formation of the third named storm on record. Still not necessarily an indicator of the season to come, however. More to do with the MJO. We should enter a more typical quiet period for this time of year in the tropics soon.

    1. Of course the only reason it’ll set that record is because of anomalous Alex, which was probably subtropical, and Bonnie, which was named even though it was never actually a tropical storm. Ah well, details!

      You are spot on regarding MJO and the upcoming quiet period. In fact the only reason we may reach about “average” in terms of storm # this year is because we had an aided head start. 😀

      1. re: Alex

        Was that really this season? Technically yes, as it was January,
        BUT in reality, wasn’t Alex really a hold over from the previous
        Hurricane Season that ended in December?

        Of course NO ONE listens to me, But I would place Alex
        with LAST YEAR’S stats. It has nothing to do with this season.

        Oh well.

        1. The season runs June 1-November 30, but is expanded with off-season margins that are just for the calendar year, so it would count as the 2016 season. It may have been a “hold over” but in the world of climatology that becomes too nit-picky as this is really more about statistics. The line was always drawn at the border of the calendar year for the sake of simplicity and statistics.

          1. Oh, To be sure, I understand that.
            BUT for all intents and purposes, Alex was
            a “Last Season” event. 😀

            1. I don’t think it was connected to either season, really. It was just an event stuck in the middle, that probably didn’t even deserve a name. Colin should actually be Alex, as Bonnie didn’t deserve a name either.

    1. I see the dewpoints are 70F +, Washington DC southward. I wonder what happens down there later this afternoon ?

  15. If they get breaks of sun certainly enough juice for potent storms to form down there.

      2. On the other hand, the 0Z Euro looks interesting.

        Let’s see what the 12Z runs show on that. 😀

        12Z GFS not so much.

        1. Vickie is right and I almost never do –

          Thank you x 365 x approximately 5 years? I believe that equals a free drink every day for the rest of eternity….

          Seriously TK – enormous thank you from the shadow people too!!! Don’t know what I would do without the info provided on this blog that exists only bc of your commitment and work. Thanks!

  20. TK – Has there ever been a “Clyde” named storm? Vicki had jokingly suggested that since the list has a Bonnie, the next should be Clyde. I got a kick out of it myself. 😀

    Also, if Bonnie never reached TS status then why did the NHC name it as such? What was its actual maximum?

    1. It would have been so clever, wouldn’t it have been?

      And I wondered about the criteria also and why Alex and Bonnie were named and stats as to why they should not have been.

    3. Officially, it reached tropical storm status twice. However, I am in agreement with our illustrious blogger that the system probably was never a tropical storm. It never looked that healthy on satellite (except right at the end), and there were no reports of sustained tropical storm force winds that I ever saw.

          1. That reporter needs to get his facts straight.

            1. There is no warning (or watch) in effect for Charleston related to TS Colin.
            2. The system is moving north now, but not along the coast.
            3. It’s the National Hurricane Center, not the “National Hurricane”
            4. The “weather service” forecast is for waves of 9-14 feet, not 10-18 feet.

  21. JPDave will see what the 12z EURO says. NWS discussion from earlier makes it sound if we could get some good CAPE there are ingredients there for what could be some potent storms Tuesdays.

  29. If it wasn’t for this crappy pitching, the Red Sox would have practically wrapped up the AL East by now. At last check they are down 4-0, top of 5th and with rain about to move in. Still tons of time left in the season of course, but still they are making it so hard on themselves right now.

  31. Very little rain here this morning and it’s been a cloudy kind of humid day if you will. Rain getting heavier later as I hope it does . Pool cover off and in clearing mode now 16 gallons of chlorine so far . 30,000 gallons of water .

  32. Humid today. The temperature is deceiving as it feels tropical, in my view.

    We’ll see on whether it heats up consistently. I trust TK on the expectation that we will get consistent heat, but reserve the right to be skeptical.

    On the Sox I’ve never been sold on this team. They remind me of the `77 Sox. Great offense, but poor pitching. Good first half, but sputtering in the second half. I don’t expect this team to be a true playoff contender. Perhaps a Wild Card, but wouldn’t be surprised if they do not make that either. I think Toronto is a better team, and the Orioles may be better, too. Not to be too pessimistic, but I think fans need to be real about the Sox offense. Bradley, Ortiz, Betts, and Bogaerts will not be the forces they’ve been in the first two months. They’re good – especially Ortiz and Bogaerts – but they’re not all going to be 200 hit guys with gaudy numbers all year. Pitching is the name of this game, particularly as the season moves along. The Red Sox have mediocre pitching across the board.

    2. Always wise to remember at least two things. TK has an impressive batting average. Pretty much the same folks on here calling off winter before it was winter in December 2014 are calling of summer before it is summer. Oh and three….also same who said Pats were toast in the fall of both 2015 and 2014.

      Just Sayin’

  33. AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1. What is the most hail-prone city in the United States?

    A. Cheyenne
    B. Tampa
    C. Denver
    D. Witchita

    2. At any moment, how many thunderstorms are occurring around the world?

    A. 200
    B. 2,000
    C.20,000
    D. None of the above.

    Answers later today.

  34. Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan regarding Tues Thunderstorm Potential
    18z NAM has a pretty impressive looking thunderstorm threat Tuesday here in SNE. We’ll see if it holds

  35. TK – When you get a chance, can you respond to a couple questions I posted at 1:41 pm please? Just curious more than anything else. Thanks. 🙂

    1. No Clyde. 🙂

      And my fellow meteorologist SAK answered your other question. 🙂

  37. Up to about 1/2 of rain here in Brockton. Haven’t had much of a chance to look at what’s going on around here today, so I can’t comment (yet) on anything for the upcoming week. I’ll delve into that late this evening when I do my Weekly Outlook for my blog.

    TD 3 has become TS Colin in the Gulf (which I did dedicate a blog post to). It’s going to bring a lot of rain to Florida and possibly the Southeast this week. Another disturbance south of Mexico is going to create some serious flooding for southern Mexico and adjacent Central America this week. Don’t be surprised if you start seeing that in the news in a few days.

  38. Over half an inch of rain here in Wrentham as well. Doing better than I thought. Just had a couple downpours roll through.

    1. And ahead of it, it’s getting very tropical down here. Nearing 70F, with mid to high 60F dewpoints. Feel like they’ve both climbed 3 to 5F the last hour or two.

  41. Where there is a special marine warning in Long Island Sound, the radar sort of gives the appearance of a bow echo.

  42. Pretty decent like be running along the Mass and NY border. Let’s see if they hold together by the time they get to Worcester.
    0.48″ so far.

  43. Answers to AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1. What is the most hail-prone city in the United States?

    A. Cheyenne
    B. Tampa
    C. Denver
    D. Witchita

    The answer is A.

    2. At any moment, how many thunderstorms are occurring around the world?

    A. 200
    B. 2,000
    C.20,000
    D. None of the above.

    The answer is B.

  44. I am now obsessed with that line….and I know it will lead to nothing but disappointment

    Apparently, I can be negative too 🙁

    2. Im waiting on it too, but I’m afraid it’s going to be a big bust. Some rain, but I’m wanting thunder.

  45. Had a few claps thunder flash of lightning and briefly heavy rain with that line as it went through.

  46. The 18z GFS operational is too fast and too strong with the ridge. It’s back to its old habit of rushing things.

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