Monday Forecast

120 Comments

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 6-10)…
Drying out today and quite warm on the back side of the broad low pressure area that brought yesterday’s wet weather. A trough hangs out over the Northeast this week and after today’s warmth we have a shot of showers and thunderstorms from a passing disturbance aloft and stronger cold front at the surface moving through on Tuesday. Cooler air arrives Wednesday but another potent upper level disturbance may kick off some additional showers and a few thunderstorms Wednesday, and with very cold air aloft some small hail is a possibility as well. Drier but quite cool weather is expected Thursday and Friday.
TODAY: Partly cloudy early, then mostly sunny. Highs 70s Cape Cod, 80s elsewhere (may hit 90 a few interior valley areas). Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with a few strong storms possible. Highs in the 70s coastal locations, lower to middle 80s interior. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lingering scattered showers possible early. Lows in the 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon, a few of which may produce small hail. Highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s to middle 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 11-15)…
The weekend of June 11-12 is uncertain because of the timing of a couple disturbances moving northwest to southeast out of the Great Lakes region, and how close they will be to New England. For now will go with a risk of a couple showery periods from later June 11 into June 12 but a large portion of the weekend will likely end up rain-free with temperatures remaining generally below normal. This may repeat again during the June 13-15 period as heat builds in the Midwest and cool weather tries to hang on to New England.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 16-20)…
The struggle between a trough and cool weather and some building heat to the west continues early in the period with some unsettled weather and variable temperatures, and then it turns warmer to possibly hotter by the end of the period.

120 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Thanks for the Marshall Crenshaw video. I like it. Had never heard that one before.

    Here is the tune I know him by:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sgQYHQSqjQ&list=PL9B43746CF5D42006&index=2

    Oh, and btw, is the thunderstorm threat for tomorrow real?
    And is there any severe threat with these storms.

    I keep looking at the models and they are all over the place with severe parameters.
    Many inconsistentsies to be sure. I see thunderstorm possibilities, but is severe in the cards? We shall see what the 12Z runs show.

    Here is the latest from the SPC, marginal risk for severe

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif?1465213387745

  7. Thanks TK.
    Will see what tomorrow’s outlook from the SPC shows around 1:30pm this afternoon.

  10. If anything tomorrow I think the activity is more isolated in nature and not widespread.
    The majority of storms form will most likely be non severe.
    Looking ahead to Saturday and taking quick peak at GFS a good amount of instability just to our south and west.

    1. Yes, Saw that. SREF is slowly coming on board. A bit less with 9Z run over 3 Z run. We shall see what the 15Z run has to say later.

  13. From Taunton NWS office A bit ago:

    Will push chance PoPs more N/W with the expected threat of showers
    and thunderstorms. Expected scattered nature of activity makes it
    difficult to go with likely. Given the absence of deeper forcing
    with the latest forecast guidance, not comfortable jumping in
    with any strong to severe weather wording with expected
    thunderstorm activity, but do not fully rule out potential severe
    weather outcomes.

  14. Certainly when you see those numbers getting close to the one range you start to pay attention and look for any cells that could potentially rotate.

    1. Indeed.

      Although my Dad was not in the initial assault, he did land there on a follow-up landing and marched all the way to Germany with unbelievable fire fights and German shellings. He told of many horror stories.

      What these soldiers went through was incredible. We owe much to their sacrifice.

  16. I wasn’t that impressed with the severe potential around here for Tuesday when doing an update on my blog early this morning.

      1. Here’s what I had in my Weekly Outlook:

        Saturday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers late. High 67-74.

    2. 😀

      Thank you. It means that I have been reading the charts correctly.
      Given that, we can’t let our guard down and must diligently review the
      next runs.

  18. From Dr. Gregg Forbes:

    TUESDAY 6/7
    A cold front moving into the Northeast gives a chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in New England, east NY. TORCON – 1

  20. GFS has been consistently wimpy with this thunderstorm potential.
    Curious for Saturday and if there is any slight shift in track with some pretty good instability just to our south and west.

  21. JP Dave, On this day of commemoration of the Allied landing on the Normandy beaches to liberate Western Europe from fascism we thank your father for his service. Despite the fact that most veterans from WW II are no longer with us, I feel indebted to them. The scourge of fascism and intolerance, as well as communism, plagued Europe for many decades, killing tens of millions of mostly innocent civilians. Europe’s battle scars are unfathomably large. My strong feelings about this formed around the time I moved to the Netherlands at the young age of 16. In 1980, the “war” as the Dutch still call it today (every other `war’ is ultimately a footnote by comparison) was a comparatively recent memory. History was therefore not as abstract. On remembrance days then, and even today in Holland, you really got a sense of the absolute horror and destruction that occurred between 1939 and 1945. Europe had been a battlefield for centuries with ethnic tensions, land grabs, and empires. But nothing compared to WW II in terms of the scale of destruction. Holland was not as affected as Poland, Russia, Belgium, or France. But, to put things into perspective, even Holland suffered enormously as it saw entire cities destroyed (eg, Rotterdam), widespread famine, brutal occupation, suspension of anything remotely democratic with respect to governance, 75% of the Jewish population wiped out, tens of thousands of resistance fighters and dissidents killed, thousands of homosexuals, children with Down’s Syndrome or other disabilities murdered. Your father, JP Dave, helped to topple Hitler’s evil regime, laying a foundation for peace and prosperity for West Europeans. The East Europeans unfortunately had to wait another 40 years for their liberation from the clutches of an equally evil force: communist dictatorship. For all the problems Europe faces today, they pale in comparison to what it endured over 70 years ago.

    1. Thank You Joshua and very well stated and I agree 100%.

      My Dad is no longer with us as he passed 5 years ago next month.

      He and his 3 brothers all fought in that war and all 4 of them returned relatively unscathed, a few shrapnel wounds is all (My Dad received the purple heart). Pretty amazing.

      If you don’t mind, I will tell one of my Dad’s favorite memory of the War.
      One night he was in his foxhole withstanding a German artillery barrage, when
      all of sudden another American soldier jumped into the same hole for cover.
      My Dad looked at him and it was his Brother Jack, from a different company
      altogether. Pretty amazing. Still gives me the chills.

      2. Gave me chills just reading it. Funny how things like that happen and it truly is amazing.

  22. Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan for tomorrow
    Forecast challenge tomorrow is how much low level moisture is around. Considerable spread/uncertainty

    1. If and or buts, that is the story.

      We shall see, but I’d lean towards nothing very serious happening.

  23. I’m in agreement with SAK on the not too impressive look for Tuesday storms. Still risk of one or two strong ones but the big exception as most won’t see this.

    1. Thank you for sharing this story! It’s always nice to see positive collaboration and a rebuilding of something that once was. And, on a warm June day, as crazy as it seems, I find it refreshing to imagine the snow falling in the (still) distant future.

      1. Skiied there once, in Feb 1969. Not a bad little area, although it’s
        location precludes it receiving some of the true mountain snows
        that Waterville, Loon and Cannon might receive.

        It Must have extensive snow making equipment to survive.

      2. There was another little ski area up in that area and I’m trying to recall the name. You used to park at the top and ski down.

          2. That was it – thanks – King Pine. Or was it Kings or King Ridge?? Well done and thanks. We would go there during the week for day trips. We skied nearly every weekend at Cranmore and then at Tyrol when it was born. It is since gone.

              1. No, I probably just confused the 2 is all. King Pine/King Ridge
                what’s the diff? 😀

    2. I am not familiar with Tenney which surprises me as it was my dad’s area to ski. I will have to ask my brother about it as he lives and skis in that area and has worked at Sunapee in various capacities on the mountain for decades. My nephew went to Plymouth State. This is an uplifting story.

        1. Thanks Keith. I have posted on your second link. It brings back so many stories my dad told. We went to the one in new London.

        2. You and I both stayed at same place in Madison I believe. And I’d bet crossed paths at red jacket. Small world

          1. We used to rent in the Eidelweiss complex in the mid and late 70s. Spent many a night listening to some great bands and hoisting a few at the Red Jacket, Red Parka, Up Country Saloon..to name a few.

    1. SPC has always, by their own admission, struggled mightily to forecast severe weather in New England. I can’t count the number of times they’ve issued boxes up here that don’t get more than 1 or 2 reports of actual severe weather at most. The running joke in my office is that once a box goes up for New England we can relax because nothing is going to happen.

      1. Thank you for that information.
        I always wondered about that.

        Still looks like we fall short of severe, but thunderstorms are probably likely.

        We shall see.

    2. Marginal, eh?

      Doesn’t even rate a “slight”.

      Still not impressed. Will check Euro shortly.

          1. This is not high, however, the SREF has had
            a history of sniffing out possible tornadic storms
            for our area with as low as 5% in the shaded
            areas.

            1. When that model highlights an area it should be monitored. This short range model in my opinion does a decent job with severe weather.

              1. I remember at least 2 instances where it highlighted 5% and in each case there was an EF-0 tornado.

                One was Worcester and the other was Wrentham each in a different year.

                It also sniffed out the Revere Tornado, but I think that area
                was 15% if I am not mistaken.

                point is, it is particular good for our area, or at least it was in those instances.

                1. That Revere tornado EF 2 in strength happened in the morning hours and not during the time of peak heating. If I remember correctly I don’t believe a tornado warning was issued even though there were signs of the storm rotating as you pointed out that day Dave.

  26. I agree with the SPC marginal risk. As I said earlier I think most of the storms tomorrow should be non severe maybe one or two go severe.

  27. From Eric Fisher for tomorrow
    Main issues in any t’storms that fire up tomorrow will be some locally heavy rain and strong wind gusts

    On the graphic with tweet
    Hail at 1 which is low
    Wind Gusts and Damage at a 2 which moderate
    Tornado at 1 which is low

  28. JJ with the Revere tornado, a Warning was issued, but it was too late.

    That storm showed signs of rotating many miles SW of the city and then it stopped.
    It passed over the city and started rotating again and dropped that tornado
    in Revere.

    I actually saved the radar image showing the rotation.

    http://imgur.com/r4TufPv

  29. Thanks for the link.
    You could see that tight rotation with that storm that produced that EF 2 tornado in Revere.

    1. Well, anytime from about 11AM through say about 5PM or so.
      However, some of the models are showing the best instability around
      15Z, which would be 11AM. Early to say the least. Not sure IF the trigger
      is available that early.

      We’ll have to watch and see and also look at 18Z and then 0Z runs. 😀

      1. Thanks – will change appointment I have for car service. Not a fan of being out and about in storms…mostly because I like watching from my perch by the window but also not driving in them.

        1. Didn’t have to switch – Toyota called me to see if I could switch. Must read WHW 🙂

  31. Vicki just looking at a tweet from the NWS out of Boston timing is noon to 10pm tomorrow.

  34. 18Z NAM is pretty robust for tomorrow with sufficient Cape and LI
    with Bulk shear 40-50 knots and EHI of about 1.5 to nearly 2.o in places.

    Getting interesting.

  35. As you pointed out earlier EURO run of 12z was showing a moderate chance for severe in Boston.
    Certainly what the short range models are showing NAM and SREF are more than enough for thunderstorm development should things come together.

    1. yes, and from what I can tell, the Euro is rather conservative with the
      Severe parameters. So there actually may be something to this for tomorrow.

      We’ll know more later this evening and tomorrow AM. 😀

  36. One thing NWS out of Taunton points out
    there is a limiting factor and that is
    the entrainment of some dry air at the mid to upper levels which
    could inhibit updraft development. Even so, have enough confidence
    to include small hail and gusty winds in the wording

  37. Thanks TK. Almost an inch of rain here yesterday, just what we needed.

    Matt, thanks for your link earlier. I go to Plymouth State as I’ve said many times, I hadn’t heard of this though. Great to see that collaboration.

    Was in at the NWS for my first day interning there today. Great people; was fun to listen in on them going over the potential thunderstorm threat tomorrow.

  38. Two hundred years ago today Boston received a coating of snow!

    The Year Without A Summer…1816

      2. That was nothing 🙂 🙂 🙂

        I remember 10,000 years ago having to walk forever south to flee the oncoming glaciers.

  41. Even the 18Z GFS is a little more robust for tomorrow, certainly so over the 12Z run.

    So, it is beginning to look like we have to watch the skies tomorrow.

  42. Top 10 day. Just came in from deck. Perfect night to sit and listen to the wind in the trees.

  43. Still not that impressed with the severe threat for tomorrow. Maybe from Worcester westward and northward into SW New Hampshire, but I think we’ll have a tough time getting anything into eastern Mass/RI.

    Colin looks like another “Tropical Storm” that isn’t really a tropical storm. I posted my thoughts these topics as well as the TD in the Pacific in my own blog this evening.

  44. Well, we seem to be starting out with decent low level moisture this morning, with dewpoints near or slightly above 60F.

    1. Looks like we’re going to get several hours of sunshine also to destabilize. I think eastern MA, especially near Boston and Cape Ann, is the place to watch for a couple strong to severe storms. They could fire off fairly early in the day as well, in the 12-2PM window.

      2. Pretty decent cell in the ocean just east of Cape Ann from the departing early morning activity.

  45. The entity that is named Colin has a southwestward extension this morning through central Florida, accompanied by a line of training thunderstorms that has flash flood warnings centered on the Tampa area.

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