Tuesday Forecast

182 Comments

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 7-11)…
A cold front and an upper level disturbance will set of scattered showers and thunderstorms today. A second disturbance will set off additional showers and storms Wednesday. There is a slight risk of a few severe storms today, and much less of a risk of severe storms Wednesday through some of those storms may contain small hail due to cold air aloft. Dry weather is expected Thursday and Friday, and may last at least into Saturday though we’ll have to watch a disturbance coming out of the Great Lakes by the start of the weekend.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with a few strong storms possible. Highs in the 70s coastal locations, lower to middle 80s interior. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible before midnight. Lows in the 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon, a few of which may produce small hail. Highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s to middle 50s. Highs in the 60s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s to middle 50s. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 12-16)…
Risk of rain or showers at times as we’ll be in a boundary zone between cool air hanging on over New England and the Canadian Maritimes and building heat in the Midwest.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 17-21)…
The struggle between a trough and cool weather and some building heat to the west continues early in the period with some unsettled weather and variable temperatures, and then it turns warmer to hotter later in the period.

182 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    SPC has a bulls eye of Slight Severe, that includes Boston.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif?1465302912443

    Tornado Chances

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif?1465302938262

    2% is very low, however, we have seen them before when the SPC has only a 2% chance. Something to monitor for sure, even with the low percent.

    SREF has the 5% bulls eye North of Boston

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f012.gif

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f015.gif

    But has severe parameters fairly high

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_CB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f015.gif

    1. It’s looking like someone in the area could see a severe thunderstorm.

      The 9Z SREF will be out around 10 AM. We’ll see if there are any changes
      there.

      Will now look at HRRR and Euro.

      1. From what I can see, both the Euro and HRRR show marginal
        conditions for severe. Could be some severe and equal chance
        of No severe. Waiting on next runs.

    2. Thank you JPD for taking the time to post all of those.

      I don’t want anything that is rotating, but if you could move the severe a bit south and west, I’d sure appreciate it!

  6. One other thing I would like to state before any action develops later.
    We were “supposed” to have some convection earlier this morning. Well, it did happen here (not a stinken DROP!), but did N&W of the City and into Southern NH. Therefore, around these parts there is NO convective Debris clouds hanging around. The atmosphere has a free hand and the signal is GO to de-stabilize.

    I am wondering IF the worst of it later today will be in the Boston area and to
    the W and SW of the City and not N&W of the City? Just a thought. I sure don’t
    know that for sure. Again, waiting on more model runs.

    1. We had pure blue sky earlier. Some very interesting and big clouds now building to my ESE – can’t see any other directions from my office window.

        1. Thanks TK and thank JPD for posting the maps. Didn’t receive anything in Sterling. Has been sunny all morning so the atmosphere is open for destabilization.

    2. Rain lulled me out of sleep (and then back into sleep) this morning. Very interesting sky now, sun and dark clouds. I don’t want any damage to come to anyone, but I would love some decent thunderstorms when I get home from work (like Vicki, I prefer to watch them from home, rather than be in a car or at work).

  7. Thanks TK
    If that sun is out and there was no rain earlier the atmosphere will have plenty of time to destabilize.

  8. Very interesting.

    Have a look at the 6Z High Resolution Short Range Canadian.
    CMC-HRDPS / Quebec (mesh: 2.5 km interpolated to 5 km)

    Cape

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/cmc_hrdps_amer_qc_06/BE_BE_010_12000.gif

    Lifted Index

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/cmc_hrdps_amer_qc_06/LI_UU_VV_010_0000.gif

    EHI

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/cmc_hrdps_amer_qc_06/HI_010_0000.gif

    Those EHI numbers are off the charts.
    Please understand that this model seems to be the OUTLIER with the severe
    parameters, however, ALL of the models show severe potential.

    This also shows that the worst of it would be around the NOON hour. We shall
    see.

    Here is a nice explanation of EHI (Energy Helicty Index) by METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY

    METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY

    You will not that most of the Boston Area Northward is in an area of EHI of 4+.

  10. Special Weather Statement from NWS out of Taunton.
    …A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
    AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS EASTERN MA AND
    POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF RHODE ISLAND…

    AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER HIT AND MISS
    SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THOSE
    STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE…PRODUCING ISOLATED REPORTS OF
    LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
    IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION…THE HIGHEST RISK APPEARS
    TO BE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF RHODE ISLAND.
    HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO
    POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS.

    THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS BETWEEN 1 AND 10 PM WITH
    THE GREATEST CONCERN BETWEEN 3 AND 8 PM. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
    THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND SEEK
    AN INDOOR SHELTER IF A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

    1. Thanks JJ, I was going there next and you saved me the step.

      “Could” really get interesting.

      SPC just updated with no changes to the earlier outlook.

  11. From everything I am looking at looks like I will not be in the bullseye for these storms today.

    1. No But I and the rest of us in the Boston area and Eastern MA, “may” very well be in the bulls eye.

  12. I cant help but notice that the dewpoints are running in the low to mid 60s and the surface winds are light S and SW.

    I got the idea that the biggest thing working towards scattered storms as opposed to a greater aerial coverage of storms was the potential lacking of moisture in the column.

    So far, the column seems more moist than I would have expected. Perhaps some mixing with all the sun will dry the column out a bit more, knocking down the dewpoints.

    But, if the dewpoints stay in the low to mid 60s, given all the sun we are seeing this morning, then I think this event may overachieve in terms of coverage later today.

    1. Indeed. I am slowly getting concerned, where I was NOT before.

      This is just the type of sneaky little set up that brings our area some
      surprises in the way of severe weather.

      The super hyped events almost never materialize. This one has been sneaking up on us, which worries me.

  13. Tomorrow while maybe no severe weather could see some potent storms with some small hail and gusty winds.
    Those dew points in the 60s today as long as they stay there and don’t drop due to dry air coming in certainly is potential for some strong to possibly severe storms.

  15. Latest HRRR has main activity in Eastern sections around 19Z
    Which would be around 3PM.

    Shows Cape of 1500 Joules and EHI of 1.0.

  17. Even though the SPC only shows 2% for tornado which is a low threat there have been many instances where we see a tornado with that low of a percentage. I am not saying that will be the case here today but something certainly to monitor.

  18. If I am not mistaken, Charleston has that tropical storm warning the Post and Courier mentioned a few days ago….foreseeing the future were they?

  20. 10AM Obs

    DEW POINTS

    Boston 63
    Blue Hill 64
    Bedford 64
    Norwood 64
    Worcester 61
    Fitsburg 62
    Marshfield 64
    Taunton 64
    Westfield 61
    North Adams 61

    So, it appears that EAST of Worcester is where the low levels are more moist.

    We’ll keep monitoring those dew points.

  23. From NWS Taunton at 10:36 AM

    TODAY…

    Upper level low in the Hudson Bay will put southern New England
    in southwest flow.

    A more robust shortwave will approach the region this afternoon.
    Destabilization will occur as heights begin to fall due to
    approaching cold front. Anticipate thunderstorm development as
    CAPE values will be close to 1000 J/kg combined with 40-50 kts of
    0-6 km bulk shear and mid-level lapse rates near 6.5-7 C/km. These
    parameters will yield strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. We
    could see damaging wind gusts and large hail within any of the
    stronger thunderstorms.

  24. This is not a scientific observation, but atmosphere, clouds, looks unstable where I am (Providence) right now. Earlier this morning on my way down here it did not look unstable. So, something’s up.

  25. It looks like some stuff is starting to getting going in western parts of Upstate NY. Now we watch what happens as this activity tracks towards us.

  26. 11:30 obs – 77* with a dp of 64* at my house in Chelmsford, 76* with a dp of 60* in Nashua (4 miles from my office in Hudson and 10 miles from home). Interesting that the dew points are 4* difference within 10 miles.

  27. first radar returns have shown up in the lower Merrimack River Valley, with the first heavy shower quickly pushing east thru Essex County Per mn.

      1. Looks like one popping SSW of the City down around Norwood/Sharon or so.

        ACE can you confirm?

  28. Latest HRRR indicates convection around the 1PM hour with MUCH lightning.
    Then it show off and on convection until 10 or 11PM tonight. Not sure of that.
    We shall see.

    In any case, I don’t trust the HRRR radar reflectivity charts at all.

    Something is likely to happen. We just don’t know exactly where or when.

    BTW, HRRR now showing CAPES in the 1500 to 2000 range and EHI values around 1.

  33. Special Weather Statement on that storm for north central Essex county with radar indicating pea size hail and winds in excess of 40mph possible with this storm
    Along with special marine warning north shore area.

  34. There “appears” to be a bit of rotation with the storm up in Essex County, the most
    Northern of the 2.

    2. 20 knots in each direction. Not major rotation, but something is going on
      with that storm.

  36. This storm went from a strong storm then just before noon became a severe thunderstorm.

  37. Well, other activity now dying down.

    Will there be more? that is the question.

    I have a feeling yes. These were the precursors, maybe?

    We shall see.

    Heading out for a bit. 😀

  38. There is more activity forming over parts New York State. I would not be surprised if we see another warned storm before the day is out.

  40. Towering clouds here but still sun. Nothing more. Was out so missed the north shore action on radar.

    A friend is driving to and from Wellesley to Hingham 4:30 to 8:30 pm. I had the sense that was an area of concern. Am I correct or is there less of a chance there?

  41. I hope this is just the start and not the end. Maybe tk can tell us. I have a feeling this is all the action we are getting today. I hope I am wrong

  42. I think there’s 2 boundaries …… One in easternmost New England, where these storms are firing. You’ll notice from obs a wind shift from S to WSW and a difference in dewpoints from mid 60s to upper 50s. I don’t think this is a cold front, but perhaps a pre frontal trof.

    Then, there’s the actual cold front in western most New England. I think as this front moves eastward, it will generate scattered storms because it’s running into slightly drier air (dewpoints in the m-u 50s.)

    Interesting weather day.

  45. HRRR timing off but idea ok. Slight rotation risk North Shore and nearby southern NH this afternoon.

    1. TK – not sure you saw my question above re drive to Hingham. I see you are more concerned with north of here so perhaps that will be clear later. Thank you.

  46. Back from Lunch. We had a brief shower in JP between 12:30 and 1PM.

    Towering cumulus all over the place.

    One of these is going to pop a storm.

    1. Convergence zone sitting in that area but right now the strongest convergence is just offshore and another area is forming on the South Shore.

    1. They’ve been “in the zone” and the mountains really enhance storms there.

  50. SPC took down the Mesoscale discussion for our area and
    did NOT post a watch. So there you go.

  52. I hope nobody is expecting a widespread severe storm outbreak. The conditions are good for showers/storms to pop today, but marginal for any severe weather. A sunny slot may not be as supportive for convection since there are zones in which subsidence is taking place. Storms don’t grow very well in these areas. They need upward motion, which has been occurring along a line just south and east of Boston in the last hour or 2, further northwest before that.

    Better support will come in from the west this evening and try to counteract the loss of heating. We’ll see what the result is.

    1. Thank you TK. You are exactly describing what I am seeing on radar.

      That short wave moving in “may” just fire a few more storms. We shall see.

    1. There will be activity tomorrow, but it will probably be in a different form than today’s stuff is. There is a very concentrated vort max that may put most of the activity in one cluster.

      1. Oh, I expect that. Just saying that when all is said and done, tomorrow will lay down more qpf across the region that today did (Other than a few isolated locations).

      2. As I read that, my brain lit up and asked, “different form? Snow?” I know, I’m a goof… 😉

  54. Hmmm,

    Convection approaching from the West is passing the CT Valley and Fizzling out.

    It’s hitting something it doesn’t like.

      2. Well, all I can say is that it looked interesting for a while.
        not so anymore.

        Personally, I am ready to call it all off. Who was it, KANE?
        who said that the noon time action was it and there would be
        nothing else. A prophet? Maybe so. 😀

  55. JP – the picture you shared from your office is pretty much what I’ve been seeing out my window all day. Nothing more 🙁 But still awesome to watch.

    I always think of rainshine when I enjoy the clouds. We have not heard from her in a while and I do hope all is ok.

    1. I am here. Lots of frustrations going on. Left FB – took up too much time – not planning to go back again. Hadn’t looked at the weather blog in awhile but just looked in as I still look to TK and JP Dave for the best information. Hope all is well with you, Vicki.

      Just a guess – but I bet we get stronger storms tomorrow – but just scattered.

      1. My guess is that the storms may not be super strong, but I think coverage will be greater. Plenty of downpours (icepours) to go around. 😀 Just my thinking. I guess we’ll find out tomorrow.

  56. New England is pee poor if you like severe. We get a few, but conditions have to be juuust right like goldilocks.
    Laspe rates are too shallow, and little to no dry line set up. Storms don’t get tall enough to move the air around. We get a few rotators, but nothing of consequence. Don’t get me wrong, if we do have severe or a funnel, they can be as destructive as stuff out in the plains. But the conditions 90% of the time don’t line up for it.

    1. It’s all about location. Kind of like why it doesn’t snow much in Ecuador. 😉

      1. ROTFLMAO!!!!!

        That one made my day. Thank you.

        BUT, ALAS, it does snow in Equador!!!! As you say location, location. In the case of Equador, that location is UP as in altitude. 😀

        2. Yes, indeed it does. 🙂
          I was once a forecaster of weather in all the Central American countries. We didn’t have to mention snow much even when the mountains had it because we forecast mainly agricultural areas. 🙂

            1. I could have said Hawaii too, but we know they can snow like heck up on those volcanic peaks!

              1. Indeed. We have had fun posting
                blizzard warnings for Hawaii right here on this blog. 😀 😀 😀

  57. Let’s nut-shell it a bit…
    When we have a big day, like 6-1-11 for example, it’s proven that yes we do get big several days here. And yes the fact is, we don’t get many of them. Most of the time severe storms in this area are pretty isolated and impact a fairly small area, even if the damage is significant. It’s a very rare occasion when you have your Springfield-Monson event, or your Windsor Locks, or Worcester 1953, etc. Problem is, the news media in partial ignorance and partial “we have to be first and most exciting” mode, does the real story no justice when they treat ordinary storms with the slight threat of a severe cell or 2 the same way they treated Springfield, or worse yet, they try to treat it like a Moore, Oklahoma, style event. When that’s done for storms that are impacting like 5% of the area, and only about 1% of the area in any real impact, the other 95-99% of the population is going to look at it as complete hype or whatever term they choose to apply. There is a better way to do this from both a media standpoint and the way the public needs to learn how to hear and see information. I wish I had the magic answer as to how to go about that…

    1. Well said chief. I think we all knew the real score for today, but even so,
      for a bit it was looking more real that reality. I got sucked in for a while just
      from the SPC and NWS, not any media source. There were a “couple” of
      really decent storms. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if we see damage reports
      from the North Shore on the news this evening and tonight. But as you say, that was very isolated.

      Use your influence with your fellow Mets and effect change.

    2. Is it the fault of the media or the fault of the reader. The average reader seems to think that if the storm didn’t occur over them that it simply didn’t ever happen. We had two with some rotation today. To my a typical summer day is a pop up thunderstorm but not widespread. Rotation in two of the cells to me is not average and I think wise to report as a possibility.

      Maybe it is the fault of both. I’m not convinced it is the fault of just one

  58. Afertnoon musings upon staring out my office window.

    The atmosphere appears to be STABILIZING right before Our eyes.

    Just does NOT look the same out there at all.

    1. Dew points 60-65 in the convergence zone, yet in the 50s elsewhere. That’s telling.

  59. At least it gave us something to talk about for a day or so besides temperatures.
    Speaking of, looks cooler for a few days. Nothing out of the ordinary for early June, but it does look like some chilly mornings, which I hate this time of year.
    I do see some heat building though. Maybe get some in here around the solstice, or a bit before if we are lucky. (I guess the luck part depends on your perspective. I love it).

    1. If it’s mostly sunny and it gets to 72 or so, I don’t give a rat’s ass if it’s 32 in the morning. That is perfectly OK with me.

      I just don’t want the cold, cloudy, dreary, drizzly, misty type days.

  61. I’m not going to completely call off the storm risk because there is another spoke of the wheel coming in this evening. I’d be extremely surprised if any severe storms took place in southeastern New England, however.

      1. I was never that bullish on it to begin with. 🙂

        A couple nice supercells up in Maine, one with rotation.

        1. No, you weren’t and rightly so.

          I like the DE-HYPED style we get from you.

          I still say you should be on TV and tell it like it is.
          (IF THEY WOULD LET YOU!!!)

  62. NWS won’t give it up:

    .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/…
    4 PM Update…

    ***Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms possible across eastern
    Massachusetts and Rhode Island this afternoon***

    This afternoon…Mostly sunny skies are in place across much of
    southern New England. The sunshine has allowed us to destabilize
    with 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE over E MA. There is some CIN still
    indicated over SE MA currently.

    While activity has seemingly come to a halt over the last hour or
    so, as the cold pool starts to move over western MA, mid level
    lapse rates will steepen. This will allow for further
    destabilization and another round of showers and thunderstorms to
    develop, likely over eastern MA.

    Dewpoints are already falling through the western half of the
    area, with values in the mid 50s. At the same time, dewpoints in
    the mid to upper 60s continue across the eastern half of the area.
    This should result in the best instability over eastern MA and RI
    through the afternoon. This is exhibited in much of the near term
    guidance, including SPC and the RAP.

    1. Those guys are just so inconsistent. I HATE the inaccuracies they throw out there.

      Let me amend it for them. Chance of a few storms well SE of the
      Boston/Providence corridor where dew points remain in the 60s.

      This contradicts what they just posted, 4PM observations.

      Dew point 56 at Boston.
      BlueHill 56, Norwood 56
      Providence 60 and Taunton 60

      So much for the Providence/Boston Corridor!!

      http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=RWR

      1. And as I complete writing the above, NEW convection is
        erupting just West and SouthWest of Providence.

        Still looks like new activity will remain SE of the Boston/Providence Corridor. We shall see.

        1. Latest HRRR still has convection in the Boston Area
          for 5 PM or so. Of course it has not verified just yet.

        2. Shower in Providence right now. Nothing severe, but sky looks threatening. Has all day, really. I believe that often these storms are hit or miss and hard to predict, at least in New England.

    1. The systems have been progressive for quite some time, and these, I think, makes storms less predictable. Contrast this is what has been going on in Central and Western Europe where a stationary low has spun its wheels for weeks above Europe, bringing rather incredible instability and rains to many regions. Nothing progressive about the systems over there at the moment. Usually, systems over there are quite progressive.

  64. According to JR…HAIL will be the main concern tomorrow and much more widespread than today.

    TK – Do you agree? Could some grassy landscapes be covered in white?

    1. It’s due to how incredibly Cold it will be aloft tomorrow.

      Btw, just took a look at the Euro to see what the temps would be at each level
      and I see quite a bit of shear for tomorrow.

      Look at this surface to 850MB Shear map. Pretty impressive

      http://imgur.com/bisZ61i

    2. I agree that it will be the main threat because of the cold aloft. It may only occur in a relatively very small area though.

    3. Freezing level tomorrow afternoon is going to be LESS than 10,000 feet.
      It will be around 6C at 850 MB or “about” 5,000 feet
      and -2 or -4 C at 700 MB or “about” 10,000 feet.

      So I’d say freezing level somewhere around 7,000 to no more than 9,000 feet.

      That would be the reason for hail, IF we can get enough vertical motion
      to force rain drops up that high.

  66. Well, the shower activity down around Providence didn’t amount to much. What a surprise. 😀

  68. New decent convection in SE CT.

    We shall see.

    Cell out by North Adams looks decent as well. And with a 48 dew point at that.

    1. Cell in North Adams seemed to have slowed down and fall apart some although northern part of it still looks healthy.

    1. It’s likely real, but if they want you to believe that the lightning was striking the rainbow, that part is not happening.

      1) The lightning is far behind where the rainbow colors that would be visible by the photographer would be originating.

      2) A rainbow is not an actual physical entity, so it cannot be “struck” or “touched” by anything.

      This is purely a mix of optics and perspective.

  70. Driving home, noticed some really fine towering cumulus.
    Now storm around quincy or so.

  71. Some rumbles of thunder and a little light rain as a cell passes by (the bulk just slightly north of me).

  76. Sat on deck. Was enjoying wind. Looked to north and got to see an amazing bolt of cloud to cloud lightening. Needles to say I am no longer on deck.

    Some rain just starting

  78. Getting closer. Really dark clouds. Cool. Didn’t think it would make it. Great call TK.

    1. On the scale of things not terribly exciting here but still tons of fun. I agree with blackstone. Has been fun just anticipating and following

  79. In West Roxbury. Pouring buckets with thunder and lifgtning. While in dedham tried to get shot of lightning.
    Could not get it. Awesome lifhtning.

  80. Rainshine. Just saw your post above. Glad you still read. Sorry a it frustration. We are always here. Things are good here. Some good days and some tough ones. But friends and family sure help. Miss you!!!

  81. Clouds have been the order of the day here. They built to towering all day then to thicker and darker and now to our south they are black as ink. I do hear thunder in distance but think it will stay well south

    1. Oops I forget where I am located so maybe not stay too far away. This is fun. Where is blackstone

    1. Looked massive as it went over and just past JP on radar. Had two go rounds here. Nothing grand but still better than nothing

    2. It was warranted. The waterfront got blasted with strong wind and torrential rain. That storm almost went severe just before it got offshore.

  85. City of Boston narrowly escaped a severe storm. 10 more minutes over land and it would have been there. It was ready to go nuts just in time to be over water and accelerating away.

        1. As that cell is leaving Boston Harbor I see what you mean TK! Boston dodged a bullet for sure. 😀

    3. Where I was, not warranted. Apparently, it was truly warranted for parts
      of the area. So all is good. :F

  86. The more I look at tomorrow’s event the more it looks to me like CT will be the place that sees some activity and it dives ESE and misses almost everywhere else, but may catch part of RI and POSSIBLY the South Coast of MA. Elsewhere, just isolated instability showers with a remote risk of small hail.

    2. I have similar thoughts, but I think it looks like most of CT/RI/SE Mass gets the action, though it may be just downpours and gusty winds but the time it reaches SE Mass. Not sure there will be much of anything north of the Pike, especially north of Route 2.

      GFS painting a not-so-lovely picture for the latter half of the weekend and start of next week. Not sure I buy it yet as the earlier Euro wasn’t as pessimistic. The new GEM is similar, but sets up the low a couple of hundred miles farther east, keeping most of the precip out of New England. It also has support from the 18z GFS Ensemble.

  87. 00z GFS Ensemble supports the idea of a close low in the Gulf of Maine milling around for Sunday/Monday, resulting in a couple of not-so-nice days around here.

    Inside joke for our host – freeze in Brazil Thursday? Someone alert Reuters!

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