Friday Forecast / Fast Flow

94 Comments

3:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 10-14)…
As we enter the middle of June, we continue in the pattern of holding the heat well back to the west of New England while a series of troughs swinging through the Northeast hold the temperatures generally lower than seasonal averages. A very fast-flowing jet stream will be nearby or over New England during this time, and will play a role in this weekend’s forecast. First though, we start with today being a similar day to yesterday in that we’ll see a sun/cloud mix, dry and cool air, and a gusty breeze, though not nearly as strong as it was yesterday. Energy coming over the top of a ridge in central Canada will ride the jet stream rapidly southeastward into New England this weekend. As warm air tries to advance in but is deflected mainly southwest of New England, cloudiness and some passing wet weather is probable on Saturday. The uncertainty is how far eastward any rain will be and exact timing, though I favor midday to late afternoon. We’ll barely get into the warmer air briefly for the early hours of Sunday, but it will really be noticeable in terms of an increase in humidity for a few hours and not so much in terms of actual warmth as it will coincide with the time of minimal heating in the overnight to early morning hours. A cold front will drop through the region by the middle of Sunday with passing showers or thunderstorms possible ahead of it. Behind this front another shot of cool air along with windy conditions will overtake the region later Sunday and continue on Monday into Tuesday as low pressure intensifies over the Canadian Maritimes.
TODAY: Isoalted early-morning light showers, otherwise cloud/sun mix. Highs from middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind W 5-15 MPH but may turn onshore immediate coast by afternoon.
TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows from middle 40s to lower 50s. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Passing showers and a slight risk of thunderstorms northwest to southeast midday and afternoon. Highs from upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. More humid. Lows from upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy through midday with isolated to scattered showers and a slight risk of thunderstorms. Mostly sunny afternoon. Humid early, then drying. Highs from upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind W to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs around 70.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 15-19)…
A brief blocking pattern will set up with a trough slowly dropping southward through the northeastern US as a ridge builds in central to east central Canada then starts to push the trough southeastward by the end of the period. This pattern will result in below normal temperatures with one or two disturbances bringing a shower risk during the June 15-17 period followed by dry weather and a potential rapid warm-up at the very end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 20-24)…
Upper level high pressure is expected to dominate with a dry pattern and temperatures near to above normal during much of this period, but the jet stream close enough means a disturbance may arrive with a risk of showers/thunderstorms at some point later in the period.

94 thoughts on “Friday Forecast / Fast Flow”

  4. Both 6z runs of the American models get some instability into far western parts of SNE.

  5. Thanks Tk. I’m just hoping the rain can hold off in Pembroke till at least after 5 so I can get tomorrow’s job completed in one day . Typical Saturday is usually 8am to 6 pm.

    1. It may, but it may be a situation where we have about 1 hour of sprinkles to light rain from mid-level clouds with only isolated heavier embedded in that. It may be a typical decaying MCS characteristic.

  7. If you are not a fan of either meterological summer or astronomical summer, there is thermal summer for the Boston area.

    Thermal summer is June 10 through September 10, when the average high temp at Logan is 75F or higher.

    1. “Thermal Summer”. That’s a good one Tom. I like it.

      You perhaps should modify to the time period average highs are 80 or above. Pretty short Summer then. 😀 😀 😀

      1. It would be very short at that threshold. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        I wish I remember where I heard/learned this from. I think out of a New England weatherbook ??? But, I always thought it was a neat, different way to measure summer.

    1. Awww that is wonderful news. I have always thought she is excellent. I’m happy to see her career taking off and now her personal life although I haven’t watched the Today show in months.

      Thank you for sharing, Philip!

  11. NWS discussion re: Tomorrow Night

    Saturday night and Sunday …

    Warm front crosses the region with warm sector overspreading the
    area with dew pts climbing into the 60s. Thus a mild night along
    with patchy fog. More importantly an impressive (by June standards)
    and anomalous amplifying northern stream short wave trough races
    southeastward thru Ontario/Quebec and to the Canadian/New England
    border by daybreak Sunday. Very strong forcing for ascent associated
    with this feature along with strong wind fields. Meanwhile steep mid
    level lapse rates (Elevated Mixed Layer – EML) advects off the
    Rockies and Front Range up and over the central US/Canada mid level
    ridge and then into New England with H7-5 lapse rates of 7C/KM Sat
    night. These lapse rates combine with dew pts in the 60s to yield
    MUCAPES of 1000-2000j/kg across southern New England Sat night. Thus
    instability of this magnitude combined with strong jet dynamics/wind
    fields yields a risk for strong to perhaps damaging storms. However
    models are struggling with the magnitude and convection associated
    with the lead short wave/warm front Sat. Will this lead wave rob
    much of the moisture from the stronger trailing short wave trough?
    Thus will there be sufficient deep layer moisture for instability to
    be realized Sat night? Way too early to answer these questions and
    may not know until Sat when warm frontal convection develops.
    Therefore at this time range will just highlight the potential for a
    few strong storms Sat night. Unfortunately with these EMLs it`s
    typically all or nothing (i.e. a high end severe weather event or
    nothing much at all).

    1. I wonder if this scenario took place in later July, when the warm sector is a bit warmer but much more humid ( ie dewpoints in the low 70s as opposed to the projected 60s) that this would have a higher thunderstorm threat. Of course, maybe we’ll get storms out of this scenario too.

      1. Seriously, what do you think?

        Here is a sure forecast. It will be dark tomorrow night.
        Other than that it’s all up for grabs. 😀

        I think we “may” see some showers. Severe? Hardly
        Thunder? “maybe”

        Waiting on 12Z runs to see what, if any changes there are.

        1. Showers with the warm front Saturday.

          Very late Saturday night or pre dawn Sunday, a cluster of showers w/embedded storms in northern New England, closest to the best dynamics. A separate area of scattered thunderstorms in far SW CT, SE NY and northern NJ where the best surface instability is due to the location of the highest dew points being there. Leaving most of our region with a few sprinkles or light showers at most.

          1. Yep, that is the problem. We shall see if the models interpret the conditions differently with the next runs.

  12. Thank you, TK.

    Grateful for the cooler temps for two reasons: 1. selfish; I don’t like it warm (used to as a child, but that was a very long time ago); 2. drought; with warmer temps the effects of the water deficit would be more pronounced.

  13. Too cool for me, Joshua, but warm to hot is my preference this time of year.
    Hopefully after next week we see some more summer like weather. Models this morning show that we could warm up in 7-8 days. I’ve seen it show up before like that only to get dashed by day 5, so I’ll temper my excitement. BUT, both the GFS and Euro operational and ensemble means are showing some heat coming in, at least more average to modestly above temps. So maybe the model “rush” of warmer weather we’ve seen in the past is actually not rushed this go around. The solstice is in 10 days, so in my book its time for some summer weather.
    On another note, and a few have mention this before, but the call by some outlets (cough, cough, Accuweather, cough, cough) for an above to much above normal spring temp profile couldn’t have been more wrong. Not sure what they were looking at, but Judah nailed it.
    FWIW, Judah thought/thinks that once we get through this stretch, summer will turn out rather warm. We’ll see. I still have lingering doubts, but I am hopeful.

    1. BTW, I have a dew point of 48 degrees right now at my house. It’s 67 degrees, but that dew point is really dry making it feel too cool to me.

      1. Sure, it’s cool, but it is what I like to call
        Comfortably cool. With the sunshine, I am good with it.

        Went off to work today in a tee shirt, no problems (casual Friday). Wasn’t a bit cold.

        1. I have thin blood 🙂
          I had to wear a light jacket this morning. It was 51 when I left the house at 6 am. 48 when I got up at 5 am.

    1. Do you really understand what it will take to have ALL of the ice melt in the summer? The odds of that happening next summer are roughly the same odds the Roger Goodell decides to drop DeflateGate completely and reinstate Brady this afternoon.

      2. I believe it was last year or the year before the Navy predicted the Arctic could lose its summer ice this year. Not gonna happen but it is losing ice at a high rate.

  16. Totally out of left field question, but weather related. Has anyone ever found a weather balloon radiosonde? I think there’s a return address attached.
    Anybody ever see a weather balloon in the air while flying? I saw one once on my way down the coast one morning. It was right over western Long Island while we were flying just to west of Manhattan one morning. I think there’s an official launch site in Pittsfield.

    2. The launch sites in this area are:

      Chatham. MA
      Gray, ME
      Caribou, ME
      Burlington, VT
      Albany, NY
      Upton, NY

      We used to launch balloons as part of a research project when I was at ULowell. During the “Perfect Storm”, myself and another student along with Dr. Frank Colby were launching balloons from the top of the meteorology building at MIT as part of the project.

      If you’ve found a radiosonde, the instructions for what to do with it ca be found here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ops2/ua/radiosonde/

  17. Both the GFS and EURO have anywhere btwn a 588 and 594 dm 500 mb ridge developing in the central US and moving eastward some towards New England a couple days before to a couple days after the solstice (20th).

    Appears signal is for significant warmth to build in Canada northwest of New England and settle in from WNW to ESE.

    I think if that comes to fruition, given its at the solstice and this type of building in of the heat, it could be some serious warmth, especially inland away from potential coastal sea breezes.

  18. 12z NAM goes a little bonkers with instability for my part of CT.
    It does show instability expanding east across SNE between 3z – 9z but not anywhere near the level over my area at 0z. Be surprised if this model gets this one.

    1. Not impressed. Some decent instability sneaks into far Western CT, with
      a very very sharp cutoff to the East.

      The GFS and CMC has Diddly Squat, so there ya go.

  20. There leaving it the same due to uncertainty. Uncertainty seems to be the weather word of the day as NWS out of Taunton used that word in their morning discussions.

    1. I’ll take the uncertainty out it. There ain’t gonna be severe thunderstorms in
      New England the entire weekend.

  22. Interesting about the radiosonde.

    Blackstone, you said you have thin blood which brings a question to mind. I did some looking into that years back when Mac’s mom was taking coumdin. I thought she might be cold a lot because of the blood thinner. But everything I found said blood thickness doesn’t change a person’s body temp.

    My daughter’s last horse was a Swedish warmblood. Somewhere, way back in his day, I read that warmbloods tend to have their veins run deeper in their body than some other horses. Therefore the body keeps the blood warmed more. Your comment made me remember that and I wonder if location of veins makes a person more sensitive to heat/cold, etc. My veins are darned near impossible to find which – maybe – is why cold never bothers me. In my mother-in-law’s case, I wonder if her skin thinned as she aged. Just a thought. Or maybe it is normal body temp. Mine is over a degree lower than what is considered average.

    Ramblings for a Friday afternoon that may have a tad to do with weather but not much.

      1. I suspect it may have to do with his skin thinning. I think most older folks are more sensitive to cold. Maybe not. Just a theory although most research says thinner blood doesn’t matter – although what do they know 🙂

          1. 🙂 I think we are solving the age old problem of why some like hot weather and some like cold.

        1. Thanks ….. I’m also old….according to my grandson the other day who meant no disrespect…..and don’t get cold. So maybe we are back to depth of veins

  24. Funny about the discussion of being cold, veins and thin skinned.
    Sometimes I am cold and sometimes the cold doesn’t bother me.

    Long ago, I was cold and my uncle said to me: “what’s the matter, you got piss for blood” as he was not cold.

    I am not cold today, not was I outside. Sometimes I am not cold at home while my
    wife is freezing.

    It probably has to do with my increased weight as I aged.

    Now that I am losing weight, I wonder if I will feel cold more often?????

  25. World of Confusion.

    For a very confusing read, have a look at the Taunton NWS discussion re: tomorrow
    IF, ANDs OR BUTS.

    Seriously If you can figure out what they are saying, good for you.

    There may be sever, but there might not be and if not in the afternoon, maybe at night, but then again could be nothing at all??????????

    WOW! what a forecast.

    Have a look:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

    1. I got the synopsis part…..and the near term through tonight. What part did you mean? I didn’t go further because my eyes kept trying to close 🙂

  26. More questions than answers with that discussions.
    Nowcasting will be the word of the day tomorrow.

    1. I’d be very surprised if we see severe anywhere in NE. We shall see.
      Certainly worth monitoring as surprises are common around these parts.
      Even so, so far I am not feeling it that’s for sure. 😀

  27. Far western parts of SNE to me have the best shot at anything locally strong or severe.
    18z NAM has pretty impressive EHI values for that area tomorrow.

  30. IS THE BLOG FULLY OPERATIONAL?????
    SOMETHING DOESN’T SEEM CORRECT. nO POSTS SINCE 5pm YESTERDAY??????

          1. Apparently. Busy Friday for folks.
            We watched a movie, “Fathers and Daughters”
            Excellent with Russel Crowe and Amanda Seyfried.

  31. Expect a change when the next update from the SPC comes out around 9am according to NWS out of Taunton.
    Latest hi res guidance including the 03z SREF and 00z SSEO from
    SPC suggest severe weather threat for later this afternoon and
    early evening has shifted farther to the southwest…with the
    eastern edge of the threat area only extending into Western
    portions of MA and CT. This thinking was collaborated with SPC and
    the new day1 outlook issued at 13z will pull back the slight risk
    area farther to the southwest

    1. Agree 100%. I was looking at the guidance. Main threat will be NY and PA.
      We pretty much sensed that all along.

      Barry was not on last night, but rather Pamela Gardner. Man is she awful!
      She made it sound like Boston would get Strong to perhaps severe storms.
      Right and I’m Santa Claus. 😀 😀 😀

  32. Take the slight risk out of all SNE and just put the western areas in a marginal risk and that should be good for today.

  33. I thought it was suppose to rain tonight not during the day? That batch of rain looks to be here right at the start of my sons birthday party. All that work on the outside only to bring everything in. What a bummer.

    1. I’ll bet anything that convective complex falls apart before it ever makes
      it to Eastern Massachusetts. We shall see.

    2. I hope it falls apart. Good luck and happy birthday to your son. Lots of birthdays this weekend.

    3. I hope your right OS. Vicki I think this is the busiest time of the year for outdoor events.

      1. Between birthdays and graduation and Father’s Day as well as wedding, I’d say you are right. I always say there is no month like June…..next of course is December. Nice that they are six months apart 🙂

      2. Then there is discussion from earlier this morning from NWS.
        Apparently, they expect some of this complex to survive the
        trip SouthEastward. Typically, they don’t survive. They say it will. So I was probably premature in saying it fall apart.
        I still think it might, but not so certain now. Sorry.

        Convection coming across Lake Ontario this morning is elevated and
        is on the nose of a strong mid level jet. This area of elevated
        convection will move rapidly across the region this afternoon…
        beginning around midday over western MA/CT then between 2-5pm into
        Boston-Providence corridor and 4-7 pm Cape Cod & the Islands. Not
        expecting severe weather with this first round of
        showers/t-storms. However could see some heavy rainers with pwats
        +1 to +2 standard deviations above climo.

  35. That complex is rocketing SouthEastward, however, it does “appear” to be slowly
    weakening. We shall see.

  36. Update will be after 10AM.
    Yes the remains of the complex are hauling. They always do this which is why in my Friday update I mentioned showers for this afternoon and not so much tonight.

  37. Sun is out in Sudbury; showers in Berkshires; could sun cause more instability w/stronger storms around here?

    1. I don’t think so in this case. Storms/rain caused by elevated instability, not
      surface based.

      Tk can confirm or correct.

    2. Don’t think so. This is existing and weakening elevated based convection which will actually prevent surface based convection from building. That may happen, in isolated cases, tonight during a period of more unstable, humid air.

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