11:17AM
DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 11-15)…
A warm front approaches today. A weakening complex of storms, in the form of mainly elevated-base rain showers, will cross southern New England this afternoon as the border of warmer air nears. This warm air will arrive tonight for a short stay, limiting the temperature drop and increasing the humidity. We’ll have to watch for a couple isolated showers or thunderstorms forming and moving across parts of the region during the night, but this seems most likely in far western MA and western to south central CT. On Sunday, we’ll be shown that the fairly frequent visits of cool air are not quite done yet, as a cold front will whistle through from northwest to southeast in the morning. The timing of this front is not such that big storms will be likely as it will come well before the time of maximum heating from the sun, and also much of the support for storms will have moved away before the front arrives, so will just call for an isolated shower in the morning-midday then a windy, dry, cool afternoon with a sun/cloud mix and possibly an additional instability shower especially southern NH and northern MA later in the day. Monday will continue that breezy and cool theme before it relaxes a little on Tuesday (similar to the Thursday/Friday set-up from this week). Wednesday looks like a dry and warmer day as high pressure takes control.
TODAY: Clouds thicken through early afternoon followed by areas of rain which will be variable in nature with the better chance southwest of Boston and lesser chance toward southeastern NH, then clouds may thin by early evening but risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm at that time too. Highs from near 70 coast to upper 70s interior. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Sun/cloud intervals. Isolated showers possible morning and midday and again late day. Highs around 70 by midday but cooling in the afternoon. Wind W to NW increasing to 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a risk of isolated showers. Lows in the 50s. Wind NW to N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Highs around 70.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 16-20)…
Mainly dry with a trend to near to above normal temperatures by the end of the period.
DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 21-25)…
A couple disturbances bring brief shower/thunderstorm threats otherwise overall pattern is likely to be dry with near to above normal temperatures.
Good morning and thank you TK.
Thank you for your reply, too, JP Dave. Sun was out quite strong for some time but now it’s cloudy again.
Thanks, TK.
And thank you for your reply to my question earlier.
Once midweek hits, I think we break out of this troughy pattern and a more summer-like pattern establishes itself over the northeast for many weeks to come as the ridge continues to build in the central US and nudges east.
Thanks TK. After today’s rain and perhaps a sprinkle tomorrow, probably no rain for close to 10 days for most.
Scary thought. That is a long time to go without precipitation this time
of year with the high sun angle. Will dry out things in a hurry.
Thank you.
And as always, thank you TK for a great discussion
Thank you TK
Rain started here just about noon
Rain started here just about…Well not yet. 😀
Ah ha my snark is contagious. 😉
Yup, just call me Mr. SNARKY.
The surface convection is holding on barely in southwestern MA and northwestern CT otherwise this thing is dying rapidly, as expected. Just takes a while to rain itself out completely.
Just got my nine holes of golf in before the downpours came. Will see if anymore activity develops later.
12z NAM certainly thinks so for my area. Will see with latest SREF shows and if it highlights an area like one of the runs did yesterday.
Just imagine if this pattern was around during the winter…..
Thanks TK !
Seeing light rain.
Didn’t rain much here. We’re DONE. Pavements are drying off.
Done here as well. Clouds will remain and may break apart this evening. Once we get past the next couple of windy days, more seasonable weather ensues and then we break into summer.
Still steady light to moderate rain here still. 0.16
SPC mesoscale discussion.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0875.html
I bet a watch is NOT issued. WE shall see.
SPC has just moved threat even farther South and West. Gee, what a surprise.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.gif?1465675799924
No Watches OR Warnings up.
We’ve been saying all along the greatest threat, and a slight threat at that, would be far southwestern New England. By their own admission, they do not forecast severe weather very well in this area, though I’m not sure why.
Yup, great call as usual.
Wow how misleading was last night’s BZ forecast!!#
I didn’t see it. 😉
Done here also. Last bit was just heavy misty stuff. Total ended at 0.17. That is a grand total of 4.09 since noon on May 2
Slight risk should be out of SNE. To me only place far western areas in marginal risk.
What temperature disaster. 57 degrees is UNACCEPTABLE on June 11.
Not like it’s the first time it’s ever happened. It’s still spring. 😉
I don’t care if it’s the millionth time it’s happened. It’s still a disaster and I don’t like it.
I’m still not convinced this summer isn’t going to be a cool disaster. And yes I know I know I know, it’s not summer til the 21st. But I’m impatient.
And yes, this mess has me in a rotten mood.
I agree it’s a mess, but i’m
Not bummed out by it. Right now I could give a rat’s ass.
I was thinking high tempersture forecasts were a bust for sure!
Well y’all can look on the bright side(s)…
We’re essentially at our low temps for the night right now. 😀
Also, with highs around 70 or in the lower 70s tomorrow and Monday, the wind chill temps from the NW winds gusting 30-40 MPH should only be in the lower 60s. No threat of frostbite. 😀
Oh goody, more wind.
I think when JPDave said warmer by the 4th of July, he was joking, but I think he was prophetic.
A bit early to verify that prophecy. 😀
Interestingly enough, my own and CPC’s temp forecasts are verifying and will likely continue to do so. The pattern is behaving exactly as outlined time and again during the last couple weeks, so we have stability in the predictions. Transition begins just beyond the 5-day period, and not long after that, it’ll be warmer than average more often than not. Dr. Cohen’s temporary interruption was perfectly forecast. Kudos to the doc!
I said a couple blogs ago he nailed it pretty well. My crap mood not withstanding, it does start to look up by mid week. And yes, the pattern had been well pedicted, at least here, so it was expected. But it’s still pretty annoying when you work all week and only get 2 days off and you get this stuff.
Great stretch of weather this week and if anyone picked this week for vacation you picked a winner.
Terrible story coming out of Orlando with at least 20 dead and 42 wounded at a night club. Thoughts and prayers are with those families.
JJ I just saw the story. Horrific. My thoughts and prayers are also with the victims and their families. I don’t know how we will stop this the way we are headed.
Unbelievable!! Tragic and senseless.
It looks as though it may have been some sort of homophobic act.
Disgusting. I just don’t understand the nature of some people.
We were all put on this earth, so we need to live with and support each other. This intolerance in people is sending me over the edge!! Race, religion, sexual preference, doesn’t matter, it’s all the same and it HAS TO STOP!!
Amen.
So very well said, JPD.
Its sad.
On a lighter note, nothing like a COLD FRONT to warm us up. Gotta love that.
74.3 here at 8:39 AM. 73 at the Airport as of 8AM.
Transition week before finally a real summer pattern establishes itself over NE next week!
With a heavy heart overshadowing the morning, I will say it is a spectacular start to the day. Warm and a bit breezy. Heading to a meeting later today…my only Sunday meeting of the year…but enjoying coffee on the deck before I have to go dig out the ironing board which the movers put somewhere. I hope.
Up in Bedford NH at baseball playoffs, cold front just blew it seems, wind and drop in temp, big dark clouds.
Updating the blog now…
Cold front about to come through Boston area. Nice warm up ahead of it but that will be capped shortly.
So how many pessimists will look at the bogus 06z GFS operational run, which is a complete turnaround from any previous run and a complete outlier from all other models, and still make this the official forecast for next weekend and claim it’s ruined? I’m sure they’re out there barking it already… and that none of them are actually meteorologists with any ability to apply the craft/science to come up with a prediction.
Anyway, here it is: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016061206/gfs_z500a_us_31.png
Nice surface feature to go with that. 😀
Maybe it’ll snow!
It could snow, produce a monsoon, sleet, hail or be sunny….it cannot determine weather (pun intended) it will be a nice weekend. Saturday will of course be a celebration …..did I say of course…..and Sunday will be special for all but with some bittersweet built in also.
Well if I’m wrong about the weather part of it, and it does rain, it would likely be somewhat beneficial. So there would be a bright side even to that. 😉
Yes there would
77 here now. 😀
NEW POST!