Monday Forecast

91 Comments

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 13-17)…
Cold pool of air continues to sink southeastward and will sit just east of New England for a couple more days before finally sinking southward and elongating into the eastern Middle Atlantic States as high pressure ridging builds across the Great Lakes and nearby Canada later in the week. There are no significant changes to the forecast posted yesterday, so onto its update.
TODAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Brief passing showers possible southern NH and northeastern MA late day. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Brief passing shower possible eastern MA early. Lows from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 70s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs around 80.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows around 60. Highs around 80.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 18-22)…
High pressure will dominate during the weekend with fair and warming weather here as low pressure hangs out well to the south of New England. A rapidly weakening version of this low will drift northward and may bring a few showers to the region June 20-22 with near to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 23-27)…
Flat ridge of high pressure centered in the Midwestern States pushes the jet stream further north and allows more persistent warmth but with a few disturbances producing brief episodes of showers and thunderstorms among otherwise mainly dry weather. Temperatures near to above normal.

91 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Thanks TK.

    Terrible tragedy in Orlando and that’s what it should be called. 1.5 billion Muslims in the world and 99% are peaceful, loving people so to group them together and label hem is exactly what we shouldn’t do. Too much hate etc… in this world and this country.

    Anyway loving the forecast.

  5. This comment is to Blackstone from previous blog, yes Catholics aren’t doing this but they sure did at points in their history and did far worse than any terrorist organization does now. Doesn’t negate anything Isis or any other group does but can’t lump people like that in a group bc of the acts of a few.

    1. Like I said yesterday, my politics and world view just doesnt line up with a lot here, so I’ll keep it to weather.

    2. It is a terrible tragedy and like you said 99% are peaceful. I wish more of the 99% would stand up and condemn these terrible acts.I saw a couple did yesterday and that’s great, but we need more. We have a huge problem that is permeating throughout the world. I would like to say more, but will leave it at that since this is a weather blog.

      1. Scott they do and they have. The media just chooses not to cover it. It makes more controversy for it to cover. And that is sad.

    3. Hadi, you are right and it doesn’t have anything to do with politics. It has to do with understanding you cannot blame all for the actions of one. If we get to that point, we then sink to their level.

  7. Thank you, TK.

    What a beautiful morning. Earlier I spotted a heron gulping a fish in the Esplanade lagoon. Yes, there are herons that live along the banks of the Charles in the hearts of Boston. It’s said that they selected the Esplanade for better viewing of the July 4th fireworks.

    Hadi, I echo your sentiment. Religious strife has torn peoples apart for centuries. And it’s not just the distant past – the Crusades, the Inquisition – that we should have as a reminder of the bloodshed committed in the name of religion. No religion is spared from having in its midst a radical fringe that seeks to kill in order to divide and conquer. Whether it’s Protestants and Catholics killing each other in Northern Ireland in a decades long struggle, the Balkan conflict that pitted religious and ethnic factions and resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people in the 1990s, or ISIS, Al Qaeda, and the Taliban aiming their homicidal venom at the infidels (which include, by the way, any Muslims that don’t adhere to their extreme interpretation of the Koran). And we mustn’t forget that terrorism is not a tool unique to religious fanatics. In recent times, secular terrorist groups have murdered thousands across Europe in the name of their disparate causes, whether it’s above-mentioned troubles in Northern Ireland with the IRA and several paramilitary Protestant factions being the culprits, the ultra-left wing RAF in Germany, the Basque separatists in Spain, the Italian fascist collective called Nuclei Armati Rivoluzionari (responsible for among other acts, the bombing of the Bologna station that killed 85 people), and others, especially small fascist groups in Eastern Europe that target immigrants and the Roma. Then there are the anti-government extremists like the Norwegian Anders Brevnik who killed 90 people (most of whom were children) a few years ago. I urge everyone to put all acts of terrorism or psychopathic violence into perspective.

    1. Again, Joshua, excellent commentary. You so often echo Mac’s views and the words he would use. I wonder if it is because you, like Mac, spent so much of your life in other countries. It was just a given for his family to accept everyone for what they are and to embrace the differences. Thank you.

      1. Agreed. As I have said before, when it comes to non-weather
        issues, Joshua is the Blog voice of reason. Well, my opinion anyway fwiw.

  8. Did we have answers to the quiz yesterday and I missed them. I saw SAK’s comment about none of the above and wondered also. I did think hail was a criteria but then realized it said 1″ so wondered if that were true. I do enjoy the quizzes 🙂

    1. I do not believe none of the above was correct.
      It said which one was a criterion. Which is just ONE of the necessary criteria.

      Here is the definition:

      How does the NWS define a severe thunderstorm?
      A severe thunderstorm refers to a thunderstorm producing hail that is at least 1 inch in diameter or larger, and/or wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, and/or a tornado. Although lightning can be deadly, the NWS doesn’t use it to define a severe thunderstorm. If it did, every thunderstorm would be severe, by definition. Also, excessive rainfall may lead to deadly flash flooding, but heavy rain is not a severe criterion either. The flood threat is handled through a separate set of watches and warnings from your local NWS office.

      Therefore, I believe the answer which ever it was that had 1 inch hail
      was correct.

  11. From 0Z Euro

    Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday, ALL very cool with temps in the LOW 60s
    except for Sunday the 19th!!!! when they will be in the upper 50s!!!

    I know TK will caution that the Euro temperature maps are never accurate.
    That may be so, but it is showing a trend that is DISGUSTING!!!
    Let us hope it was full of shit last night!!!

    Friday

    http://imgur.com/cR3zf82

    Saturday

    http://imgur.com/oCPrz8b

    ****Sunday*****

    http://imgur.com/CT2SAFz

    Monday

    http://imgur.com/TAJBElo

    TRULY DISGUSTING.

    I may join Blackstone at the top of the Prudential building for the ultimate jump!

      1. Well Tk would say something along the line of:
        “Let’s see IF that verifies”

        Whether it verifies or not, it’s pretty disturbing that it is there
        for this time of year.

        FWIW the last time it predicted 4 or 5 days of this, the actual
        temps ended up in the low 70s, which was far better than
        the original prediction.

        Let us hope that is the case this time around.

        1. In the FWIW department, the 6Z GFS (have no clue if it is a valid run or not) has temps in the mid 70s for Friday, Sat and Sunday with mid 80s for Monday, a week from today.

          Far better than the Euro.

          Which one is correct?

            1. Actually, it has some support now. The Ensemble mean is still WELL south, but about 1/4 of the members have it much farther north now.

  13. Blackstone, I respect your political views, and not just your keen eye on weather. I think it’s important that you and others express your political views openly and as part of civil discourse. Disagreement is actually a good thing, I think. It’s the beauty of living in a democracy that we do not all share the same opinion and yet can get along as friends, colleagues, WHW acquaintances.

    I’m happy you’ve joined this blog.

    I’ll return to posting tidbits about weather.

  14. Coastal lows have the potential to wreak havoc at any time of year. And the one that we may (I emphasize “may” because nothing is etched in stone) get this weekend could remind us that nor’easters are not unique to winter and spring. The definition of nor’easter comes from the wind direction coming from a coastal low as its counter clockwise rotation brings in a northeasterly flow. In spring and summer this generally means cooler temperatures with the cool ocean to our east and northeast, some rain, and lots of clouds. Let’s hope this low doesn’t stall.

  15. Answers to yesterday’s Accuwether Trivia Quizzes.

    1. The destructive and deadly Worcester tornado occurred Jun 9th in …
    A. 1953
    B. 1963
    C. 1973
    D.1983

    The correct answer is A.

    2. A criterion for a severe thunderstorm is …

    A. Frequent lightning strikes
    B. Flash flooding
    C. 1″ diameter hail or larger
    D. All of the above

    I believe the answer is C.

  16. The media is now using the number “49” as the death toll. IMHO the shooter’s life should NEVER be included at any point in the investigation even at the very beginning.

  18. Regarding this weekend, needless to say all will depend on the track of the low. And this will depend in part on the positioning of a high pressure area that comes in later this week. Should it sit on top of us it won’t `allow’ the low to track north. But, should the high be located to our north I do think our weather will be impacted by the low. This will be a sizable system producing clouds, rain, and some wind across a a large swath of land. Even if the low only tracks as far north as the mid-Atlantic we will likely see some of its effects.

  19. Philip I heard on CBS This Morning the number was revised to 49 and if you add to gun man than you have 50. One of the people killed was a native of CT.
    Its just sad every time we have one of these situations whether its in Orlando Newton or Aurora. Innocent people losing there lives who were watching a movie at movie theatre going to school or enjoying a night out on the town and that’s just to name a few of these mass shooting we have had. I don’t know how you ever get over it if your loved one was one of those who was killed.

    1. I am just hoping that the stats for previous mass killings haven’t been including the killer’s life as well. Up until now I never really thought about that.

      1. With Sandy Hook Adam Lanza killed 20 children 6 adults but they count him and say 27 died that day.

  22. I will take the article and read it but quite honestly where it came from WGBH already tells me all I need. They are slanted too!

    1. I agree that all are slanted, Aidan, with the exception of a few – the CSM being one. That’s why I feel it is best to ignore the part about Trump. The rest IMO is accurate.

  24. It’s interesting …..

    I think the one thing we all have in common is that we are horrified by what happened in Orlando and also want to never see it again.

    Yet, since yesterday, I have read posts on here debating how to frame it which seems to claim all the energy away from working together to find a solution to this grave problem.

    A microcosm of what ails the country in problem solving.

    1. I’m not sure that is entirely true, Tom, so am curious as to what I missed or what part I played in that conclusion. I, for one, support Sanders approach. He quickly states that his state has many gun owners whose rights need to be respected. I would sure appreciate it if you would use specific examples. If not here, on FB. Those are the type of views I think we can all learn from. You are quietly observant so I am more than interested.

      1. Id probably need an hour or 5 pages to list all the examples from this and/or recent similar horrific events ……

        What I’d like to see is a course of action chosen. At this point, though I have my own belief of how to respond, I would be happy with going with another approach that I don’t agree with. At least we could implement something and if it doesn’t work, then we can try the next option.

        But, will that happen ….. of course not.

        Instead, we will have a non productive back and forth, with half the country favoring one approach, half favoring the other and neither side willing to budge. Nothing will happen and then these people will have died for nothing.

        So, I guess my point is …. watch the dialogue on this. It will never really get to trying to solve the problem, it will only debate the fringes of the issue ….. (ie : is it terrorism, who did it, were they targeting a group or just trying to get a place that was packed …. all important questions, but to prevent the next one, we’ve all got to pick an actual solution to try and that wont happen). So, to me, its all wasted energy. I guess that’s my take and what I was trying to say.

        I’ll give you an example. A student comes in without their homework done. The student would rather spend all of my time explaining why the homework did not get done. For me, I would like to spend the time figuring out a plan to help the student get that missed hw done and keep up with the next night’s assignment too. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

        Class arriving, I’ll check back in later.

        1. Thanks, Tom, for taking the time to explain. I think I understand and did address some below. Please correct me if I am wrong in my interpretation.

  25. My neighbor and I have done this for a few years of trying to figure out population shifts in the Marsh and surrounding areas
    Population shifts around my area
    Increase in Dragonflies
    Increase in Lady Bugs
    Increase in Honey bees (this is huge)
    Increase in Bats ( this is huge)
    Increase in Frogs/Toads (indicator species of a healthy ecosystem)
    River otters are back
    6 different Marsh Hawks
    2 Red tails.
    To many Bunnies to count
    Year of the grey squirrel

    Decrease in Hornets
    Decrease in wasps
    decrease in Caterpillars in the trees
    Tree’s much healthier and green than last year.

    A side note I have not been eaten alive by mosquito’s

    1. Nice, Matt. Thank you. I’m not commenting on last sentence as I don’t want to jinx anything.

      We have so many more dragonflies here but I cannot compare because I’m new to the area.

      Here we have more gypsy moth caterpillars than I’ve seen in a long while. But they are moving up from the south. I know they destroyed the very southern part of RI last year. I have not seen the winter moths which were so destructive in Framingham the past two summers.

      1. yeah the winter moths are not as bad as the past few years, probably because of the rather wet and cooler conditions of the Marsh and woods.

  26. yes I am catholic, but everything single religion have done something terrible in their pass and or future.

    What is being an American. Here it is……. This country is a MUT…. Mix of all religions of different strengths. Muslim, Catholic, other Christians, Jews , Buddhists, atheists etc. We are White, Black, Brown, red (orange) 😉 Gay or Straight. We are all called Americans, We need to remember there is bad and good in everything. There are bad christians, there are bad Muslims. Do not classify a group because of a few bad eggs. Why the hell did someone that was being watched, get his hands on a freaking automatic weapon. that is the bigger question. We have so much violence here in the USA… We are in a time in which we need to make sure we do not give more reasons for them to hate us and become radicalized. We need to work with those who do not want to harm us, not alienate them. The amount of violence and hate, will just give more fuel to the fire.

  27. RE: article Vicki Posted

    This says it all:

    Dylann Roof was inspired by hateful ideology just as thoroughly as Omar Mateen.

    The operative word is hateful ideology

    Most religions are GUILTY of this.

    Protestants
    The Catholic Church
    Islam

    They ALL denounce homosexuality, ALL of them. When a person’s religion is spewing that kind of garbage rhetoric, it is quite easy for an “unbalanced” person
    to take action that they deem appropriate.

    I am NOT a religious person, however, let’s assume I am.

    My argument would be: God created ALL of us. That means he created gay persons as well. If God can create them, then who the hell are these religious zealots
    to say it is wrong and to denounce it and those who practice it! Homosexuality
    has been around since the beginning of mankind.

    The HATRED in this world HAS TO STOP!!!!!!

    1. I don’t think all denounce homosexuality. I attend the Congregational Church and they do not. I know the Unitarian does not as well. However, Your “argument” is identical to mine.

      All of that said, I have been giving a lot of thought to what Tom said. I do think we did not post here with the intent of solving any problems. I think our intent was to voice our sadness and anger and fear. However, he is right (if I am interpreting his comments as he intended). We all have a voice and we need to use it.

      So how do we stop the hate that exists? How do we address a problem that has so many layers that is seems impossible to solve? In frustration, I wrote to our senior senator yesterday. I listened to a bit of HRC today and found her comments wanting. So I’ll write to her. But what more can we do?

      1. Vicki, I was more referring to the Bible Belt Protestants.

        I witnessed it myself while in Texas a few years back.

        But we get the idea.

        This country is so polarized.

        A good “start” would be to BAN assault weapons and institute
        nation-wide mandatory thorough background checks before
        one can purchase a gun. But we have to go well beyond that.
        The hatred has to be stopped and love started and needs to be
        started at a young age.

        The leader of my most favorite band, Mike Ness of Social Distortion, said it best in one of his tunes: “Don’t Drag Me Down”

        Here are the lyrics

        http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/socialdistortion/dontdragmedown130948.html

        Here is the tune:

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvfhgH3RbzM&list=RDbvfhgH3RbzM

        1. Love at a young age. What an important key ingredient. I think the Millennials get this far better than our generation does. That is the first thing in two days that has given me some hope. Thanks. And Tom, I’m not sure if you agree because I’m still a bit fuzzy (my fault not yours), but I think that is one of the big solutions.

  28. Thanks for your post, Matt. I’m Jewish. Like people of all other faiths, Jews are not immune to becoming terrorists. The vast majority don’t, but there are a few who do. While Jews have been the target of Islamist and state-sponsored terrorists for as long as one can remember, some bad eggs have committed terrorist acts themselves. Indeed, the concept of a zealot comes from perhaps the world’s first terrorist group – a 1st century Jewish movement called Zealotry. In more recent times, the Irgun group in the 1930s killed many civilians in the name of establishing a Jewish state. And in the 90s factions such as Kach (now outlawed in Israel) fanned the flames of hatred and inspired Baruch Goldstein to murder 29 Muslim worshippers in Hebron. In recent years splinter groups have sporadically carried out killings of Palestinians and Israeli Arabs.

  29. TK thank you for giving us the time and the forum to speak out. I think we are all raw with emotion. On WHW we are not only weather enthusiasts but also “family” so it seems natural to open up on here. I know it has absolutely nothing to do with weather but I feel completely consumed by emotions and cannot seem to keep them in check although I am trying. I suspect I am far from alone.

    1. Well, after 9/11, nothing was completely “in format”. I know this was no 9/11 but for those impacted, what’s the difference? People are keeping it civil and agreeing to disagree. That’s all I ask.

            1. Love the wind. Love the feel. No problem grilling though so I guess love grilling. Love that I am here to be able to love all of these things 🙂

              1. I had the worst experience here last night grilling because of the wind , the pool is a mess and an umbrella went airborne into the woods and I’m not going after it. So the wind has caused issues here lol .

                1. I always take umbrellas down when I know it will be windy. And we have an excellent stand. On the scale of things, it’ll be fine. I promise. 🙂

  30. 12Z ECMWF continues to insist on a not-so-nice Sunday with a coastal low south of New England. We’ll see how much support it has form the Ensembles in a while.

    The GFS meanwhile leaned towards the CMC’s idea last night of drifting the low south and moving into NE Florida. The 12z CMC keeps it weak, drifts it south, across Florida and into the Gulf briefly, before moving back into the FL Panhandle. The CMC also has a hurricane make landfall just south of Brownsville next week.

    1. CMC makes me laugh, though I do agree with its handling of things through about June 20.

      I also favor GFS over ECMWF on the 12z run, which I don’t always do, but my feeling for this has been the same all along. I didn’t initially think that we’d see any impact from that thing once it got shunted south, but I’m open to a much weaker or dying version of it giving a shower threat sometime between June 20 and 22.

    2. BTW I’ll be out doing yard work for a couple hours starting at 3PM so feel free to jump on with the story on the Ensembles.

        1. ECMWF Ensemble mean is considerably south and east of the Op run, with only a few members impacting New England.

  31. Here’s some weather John.

    There will be weather today whether you like it or not. 😀

  33. I hope we see that image a lot next winter with low pressure systems forming off east coast to at least give us opportunities for wintry weather.

    1. Indeed, that would be a great map in January!

      As Philip mentioned, Mt. Washington is poised to have one of its snowiest Junes on record. Added 3.6 inches in the past 24 hours. Could add a little more tonight. Not sure what the rest of the week entails, but if that weekend low tracks farther north and gives us cool, rainy conditions, it’s not out of the question that the summits get some snow (though more than likely it’ll be a mixed bag of precipitation types).

      You gotta love New England. Parts of NNE got very little snow this past winter. And that includes Mt. Washington. But, April through June have partly made up for the snow deficit. I’d be shocked if it snowed in July – I’ve never seen it snow on Mt. Washington in July and I’ve climbed it many times in July. But perhaps this is the year.

  34. GFS wants nothing to do with that thing next Sunday. I just checked the ‘BZ 7 day, and even they don’t have much except for a chance of showers. They’re usually all over the euro. At any rate, it still looks like some summer temps are in here around the 20th. That’s still showing up now over the last several days of runs.
    I’ll believe the euro solution for Sunday if its still showing it by Thursday and/or the GFS come around to it. I still think its analogous to a euro phantom snow storm 7 days out that goes poof inside 4 days.

    1. FWIW, ‘HDH isn’t buying what the euro is selling either. They have 84 and sunny for Sunday. But its all 6 days out, so there’s that.

          1. I suppose, but in general, I stick with:

            Eric Fisher
            Barry Burbank
            Harvey Leonard
            Matt Noyes

            And that is pretty much it for TV Mets.

            I am Extremely fussy when it comes to my TV Mets. 😀

          2. I agree. Interestingly, there was a photo of the two of them together on FB the other day. Glad to see since I know they admired each other.

  35. Something I have noticed is that there is a huge area of high pressure over the Atlantic, Mainly eastern Based instead of western Based, Could this lead to less Hurricane formation in the Atlantic.

  36. Encouraging to see the summit of Mt Washington above 32F. Gives me hope that with less diurnal cloudiness the next few days, we might see temps get around or just above 75F, which would be nice.

    Dry, dry times. A bit of my lawn in patches here and there is already showing signs of stress. I would think the region is being primed for some very hot weather in July. Certainly under a decent ridge, the dry conditions will help temperatures overachieve.

  37. So now there are 2 forecast questions.

    Thursday – The 00z NAM brings clouds into the region with showers at least to the South Coast if not farther north. The 00z GFS barely gets the cloud deck to the South Coast.

    Weekend – New ECMWF is not in yet. The GFS continues to bury the low down off the Southeast coast. The new CMC however backs the low in on Monday, similar to the past few ECMWF runs. This would bring clouds and windy conditions to the coast, with rain at least across the Cape if you take it literally.

    The ECMWF should be interesting to see.

    1. ECMWF looks like it favored high pressure a bit more compared to previous runs ….. to be able to initially suppress this system further south and east than it had been. Eventually, it lifts it back to the north and northwest. Tight circulation on its feature as it moves northwest.

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