Tuesday Forecast

100 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 14-18)…
Upper level low pressure slowly elongates and drifts to the southeast and south of New England the next few days as high pressure builds north of the region. This will allow for fair weather but still with a lack of heat, though it will be somewhat warmer through midweek before cooling down slightly late in the week. A surface low pressure system will be stretched out southwest of the region later Thursday and will bring some cloudiness into the region at that time with rain most likely staying southwest and south of New England.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 70s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows in the 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs around 80.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows around 60. Highs around 80.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 19-23)…
High pressure will dominate with dry and warmer weather June 19 to end the weekend. We’ll watch an old low pressure area to the south that may send at least some moisture northward with a risk of showers at some point during June 20-23 with temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 24-28)…
Flat ridge of high pressure centered in the Midwestern States pushes the jet stream further north and allows more persistent warmth but with a few disturbances producing brief episodes of showers and thunderstorms among otherwise mainly dry weather. Temperatures near to above normal.

100 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  4. Thanks TK !

    Canobie Lake field trip. This is our first sunny day for Canobie in years. 🙂

    One year rather recently, we had torrents with a stream of draining water running through the middle of the park.

    1. Enjoy, Tom. I never hear Canobie but I think of Mac. He told me decades ago his parents had visited and he took them to Cah – ohhh – be (emphasis on the middle) and Centipede both in New Hampshire. The latter I soon discovered was Sunapee.

      With any luck for all of you that will be the only Vicki moment for the day.

      Otherwise, WOW what a great week weatherwise.

  5. Have fun Tom and thank you TK! My parents are taking the kids to Canobie this weekend. Love that amusement park. I unfortunately have to work:( Anyways, it may not be HHH weather but a more summer like pattern has arrived!

  8. Cool June so far?
    Not at Boston, running at +0.5°F for the first 13 days of June. 😉

    1. Surprising. Just doesn’t seem that way. Of course, in early June Boston’s averages are lower than inland areas due to that COLD Ocean out there.
      So it just appears cooler than we would like.

      Thank you for sharing that. Very interesting.

      After what happened this weekend on top of all of the previous events, I am rethinking ever complaining about the weather. It’s the least of our problems.
      And believe me, I am one of the biggest offenders here when it comes to
      complaining. Let’s see if I can calm it down some. 😀

      1. It is simply human nature not to; but it sure changes things when we put it in perspective, doesn’t it?

  9. Good morning and thank you TK for the update.

    Forgot my glasses today so I am having trouble seeing. I have a sprae in the car.
    I’ll have to go down and get them in a few.

  12. Good ole Boston traffic. Don’t most people need to be in the office by 9am ? 🙂 🙂 Where are all these people going ? Made decent progress in the HOV lane.

    Beautiful out, few fair weather puffies with deep blue skies.

    1. Welcome to the City Tom. I’ll wave as you go by.
      They don’t call that the Southeast DISTRESSWAY for nothing!!

      It’s ALWAYS like that, morning noon and night. ALWAYS!!!

      I’d jump off the Tobin Bridge IF I had to drive that route every day.
      I cannot tolerate heavy traffic. Not in the least. No way!

        1. They frown on people jumping off the bridge. I’m surprised they have not asked you to stop 😉

    2. 🙂

      I could not do it. I have trouble thinking about commuting five minutes away let alone through Boston. I have clearly worked from home far too long I guess.

  13. No complaints with this weather. Enjoying that crispness to the air and dew points in the 40s for June. One thing we can all enjoy whether you like the heat or humidity or not were saving on our electric bills and I don’t think will mind a few extra bucks in our wallets.

    1. Some are . I have a spa that never shuts off and now the pool is up and running ugh. Although we did an amp reading on the spa and now understand what cranks the meter and what does not because she was spinning in overdrive . Very big unit 1,500 gallons .

    2. That is a SCARY thought.

      Took the family to Virginia Beach that Summer and it was BRUTAL HOT!
      As in BRUTAL! I “think” Boston had something like 30 90+ days that
      Summer.

      Is that what you see in the cards now?

      1. I remember that summer well. We joined Framingham CC the year after – not necessarily for just the golf as the pool was more of a draw after the 88 summer.

      1. 1988 was one of the most gawdawful summers we’ve ever had around here. Using data for Lowell (since I am the unofficial climatologist for UMass-Lowell), we had 38 days with a high of 90 or high (average is 14), punctuated by a record 15-day stretch (August 1-15) which included 9 days with a high of 96 or higher. The 38 days is 5th most all-time in Lowell, trailing 1955 (46 days) 1983 (45 days), 1949 (42 days), and 1959 (41 days).

        If you define a heat wave as 3 consecutive days with a high of 90 or higher, then Lowell had four of them that summer:
        6/12-16
        7/4-11
        7/16-18
        8/1-15

        In terms of the country as a while, 1988 was a brutally hot and dry summer. The drought across the nation’s midsection was the costliest disaster in US history up until Katrina.

        That summer also featured Tropical Storm Alberto forming just south of Nantucket on August 7 and passing offshore. Later that summer, Hurricane Gilbert wreaked havoc on the Caribbean. At the time, Gilbert had the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere (888mb), since surpassed by Hurricane Wilma.

        Someone asked when I first started posting what my specialty was. Well, obviously it’s forecasting, but as our blogger can tell you, I’ve always been a numbers guy as well. I created a climate database at UMass-Lowell and still maintain it to this day. I have over 125 years worth of daily climate data in that database now. I also have a love of hurricanes, and have done extensive research on tropical systems that have impacted New England (more personal research than professional).

        But getting back to the original point, I don’t know what the original “secret” was, but if he’s talking about 1988 on a weather blog in June, there’s only one reason. And I want nothing to do with it at all, as I cannot stead heat and especially humidity.

        2. Thank you and I remember that summer as I have said. We didn’t have AC. I have a flaw. I love to be outside. Extreme heat makes that difficult. I can say with all honesty that it will take every ounce of reserve for me to welcome 38 days above 90. However, it will be what it is and complaining won’t change it so…….bring it on.

          I won’t promise not to post Christmas songs daily, however.

  15. GFS monthlies show 2M temp anomalies of
    about 1-2 Degrees Centigrade. That represents above average to be
    sure. But I wouldn’t exactly say it represents a torch.

    Do you have some new Euro monthly information?

  16. 1988 fact: Mount Washington NH received 4 inches of snow as a result of a cold upper cut off low on June 30 and July 1.

    2. Interesting factoid which I did not know. But, what I do recall from the summer of `88 is the heat and the brief but potent cool-down’s.

      I climbed Mt. Washington with my ex-wife between the 20th and 25th of June of 1988. Arrived at Pinkham Notch on a hot day. But, on our climb up Lion’s Head the next day we encountered ferocious wind, rain, and temps dipping into the low 40s. We did make it to the top, but only stayed briefly and had to overnight at Hermit Lake Shelter as the rain was pelting down and it was getting dark on the trail (Tuckerman’s). Whatever low arrived stuck around the next two days as we were poured on intermittently and the fog was low allowing for very little visibility. All in all, it was not the best of trips weather-wise.

      1. Been on both trails. Once in June and it was mild and once in Sept and it was 30 degrees on the summit. A nice climb to be sure. Thanks for sharing

  17. TK, the June statistic for Boston (0.5F above normal thus far) is a shock to me. Thanks for letting us know. While it hasn’t felt unusually cool, I’ve been under the impression that we’ve had more cooler days than normal. Evidently, I’m wrong in my perception.

  18. Regarding the Orlando shooting, it now seems that the gunman’s wife accompanied him to purchase ammunition and even drove him to the club to scope it out. She knew about his intent the entire time. Authorities are considering pressing charges. If this is true let us hope they throw the book at her, to say the least. I have to say that this gets more disgusting every day. 🙁

  20. TK – Are you hinting that this summer will be similar to 1988? I remember it well. That was a HOT one to say the least. The following winter not much snow as Logan only received 15.5″.

          1. No,,,,I meant starting in September. And can we skip mid July please. Or if we cannot can you arrange for a string east wind

      2. You’ve been saying hot summer all along and I’ve been telling that to everyone. I believe you also said this coming winter might not be good for snow I believe . I’ll be happy if both work out . I love heat and hate winter .

  21. Beautiful weather day today.
    I’ll post this since there is nothing really exciting about our current weather. Here is a 12z GFS fantasy special on thunderstorms. This is similar to this model forecasting 12 plus inches of snow so far out. Unlikely to verify. Instability through the roof on 6/27
    CAPE
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016061412&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=300
    LIFT
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016061412&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=300

      1. Even though this is likely to be fantasy, Notice the sharp
        west to east cutoff of the severe parameters? 😀

      1. If and I say a MIGHTY IF that were to verify, we could possibly
        looking at a severe weather outbreak with possible tornadoes.
        LOOOOOOOOONG WAY OFF!

        1. If this was 24 to 48 hours prior I would be a little nervous. This will be like your fantasy snowstorm in winter next run it goes poof.

  22. Model looks to be picking up on some stable air which thunderstorms don’t like.
    12z GFS showing another thunderstorm potential week from Wed but now where near what is being shown for 6/27.

  23. If you were to show me a map and say guess what model this is I would say NAM since as you said Dave the NAM over cooks everything.

  24. I’m not sure which is more disheartening to me as a professional – people looking at fine details from a model 13 days out, or the fact that the model in question is the GFS, which routinely is one of the worst models out there in getting the bigger-scale items correct more than 5 days out.

    2. SAK, we do this all of the time. Wait until Winter.
      It keeps us minions busy and amused.

      Believe me, we know full well that something depicted 13 days out
      is extremely unlikely to ever verify. 😀 😀

    3. And that means I will never leave you disheartened….even if you can’t keep a secret 😉

  25. Oh trust me, I see it all over Twitter and Facebook too. It’s a bit of a pet peeve of mine, though less on the comments section of a blog than on Facebook and Twitter. That’s where you get the people who think they really are meteorologists and have lots of blind followers that don’t know they’re really trusting the forecast from a 20-year old that works at K-mart or a landscaper who has “really liked weather since he was 10”, but never went to school for it.

    TK has seen me ranting about it on Facebook before. Time and time again I’ve said how my job was much easier before the models were freely available on the Internet, because now everything thinks that because they can read the models they can do my job. Just because I used to watch Boston Legal and L.A. Law doesn’t mean I can go into court and represent someone.

    (The preceding paragraph was not directed at anyone in particular. Please don’t take offense at my rantings.)

    1. They know you’re speaking in general terms. I’ve seen the rants, and performed a few myself.

      Here on the blog I always remind (and many don’t need reminding) that such computer prognostications are less than likely to verify, but it still is a fun activity for them. 🙂

    2. Well hell, you are a debbie downer today. My favorite movies are Pirates of the Carribean and I thought I was a pirate. Now you have gone and spoiled my entire day. And ranting? I don’t know what that is. Can someone help a bit with that?

      Seriously, though, TK is right. We know your comments are not directed at any of us….well, except to me about the pirates….and your input is always appreciated and respected!

      1. SAK and I go back the late 1980s. We look at weather and media much the same, generally agree on the forecast (not always but that just isn’t going to be the case between any 2 forecasters), etc. You’ll have fun with his posts here. 😛

  26. Vicki asked whether I was stuck on Mt. Washington in June of 1988 (at the Hermit Lake Shelter). The answer is sort of. We took a bus (the old Concord Trailways, which still does the same route) to get to Pinkham Notch from Boston. Then, we had our adventure on the trails and Hermit Lake. Unfortunately we missed the bus back to Boston and had to stay for a day at Pinkham Notch. With no cash, credit card, or ATMs close by, the only thing we could afford was to pitch a tent in the woods illegally and hope we’d wake up the following morning on time to take the bus back to Boston. This did work out, although more rain overnight caused us some misery.

    1. Thank you, Joshua, for answering. An adventure. I love it. Nice memory and perhaps the memory is a bit better than the actual event!

    1. Just like the Accuweather forecast for Labor day is 78 degrees with “a couple of thunderstorms possible”.

        1. Lol, indeed, in a few days, Blackstone, we’ll be able to nail down the Halloween forecast with 100% accuracy. 🙂

  28. With a 48 DP I would never have guessed it is 82. The NE wind is blowing in my front windows and out my back….Windows that is….and feels glorious.

    1. shows you why the white mountains have barely gotten out of the 50s lately, little things I have been trying to keep an eye on and look into is the white mountains

  29. Middleton MA has imposed watering restrictions. Outdoor watering is allowed from 7PM to 10PM on Tuesdays and Saturdays until further notice.

    I expect we’ll see many more restrictions going into effect in the weeks ahead.

    1. unfortunately no one seems to follow them being the environmentalists like myself, it sickens me, then again, I do have a pool 😛 My family do have rain barrels even though the town of Billerica does not allow them…. there not going in the back yard anytime soon 😛 😀

      1. We’ve always followed them here. Always try to do our part. Been a while since Woburn’s had one but I suspect it may happen this summer.

        2. it effects the water companies, which effect the towns, Some towns have rules against them others do not.

  30. Sak, I know where you are getting at, and agree. I do how ever believe I have a right to have a blog about the weather (which I do) to say that People who have taught themselfs, by reading, experimenting themselfs, (which I actually have People looked at me crazy but i did not care.) Learning the weather maps and basic ideas of how these computers make their forecast and have a good idea of when to throw it in the garbage can. I also know how to look at the clouds and look at my weather station at home to make a general idea of the next few days just by eye balling it. You probably won’t like me come winter time 😀 😀

Comments are closed.