Wednesday Forecast

66 Comments

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 15-19)…
High pressure will be in control through the period. Elongated low pressure will slide out south of the region later Thursday to early Friday with some high cloudiness, and that will be about the most eventful weather there is during this 5 day period.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 50s. Wind light N.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s. Wind light N with sea breezes developing.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the lower to middle 70s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 20-24)…
High pressure gives way to a broad trough this period and also have to watch for some moisture trying to come northward from an old low pressure area to the south. A few episodes of showers and thunderstorms are possible, favoring late June 20 to early June 21 and later June 23 to early June 24, based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 25-29)…
Limited shower/thunderstorm chances, largely dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

66 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  5. As we fully expected, those GFS elevated severe parameters went poof for the 27th.
    With the 6Z run, there is still some instability for the 27th with more for the 28th, but
    NOTHING compared to what showed with the 12z from yesterday.

    We shall continue to monitor to see what shakes out.

    What it depicted yesterday are conditions that can lead to severe weather here.
    In the Midwest, often times the shear comes from SE surface winds and SW winds
    aloft. If we have that set up here, the marine layer at the surface would KILL any
    convection or at the least would keep it sub severe.

    With what was depicted, it was surface winds SW with NW winds aloft. Nothing
    to inhibit the instability and thus severe would have been possible, even at the coast.

    So the situation bears watching, just in case everything lines up, but just like the Winter storms, it all has to align properly, else nothing, or a greatly reduced threat.

    This is the kind of situation that keeps my interest in the Summer and I do not
    think I am alone.

    Enjoy another 10 day! What a beauty out there. I mean absolutely beautiful.

  6. Logan is 71 as of 8 AM. Nice launching point as this dry air mass modifies.

    Regarding the ocean temperatures. I haven’t posted much lately because I was
    so disappointed and down.

    Current water temperature at Boston Buoy:

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 56.5 °F

    Pretty Pathetic. We have lost ground over the past 2 weeks.

    I have seen it 62 Degrees this time of year. Still in the 50s is gruesome!

  7. GFS does show some instability for next week but nothing that impressive at the moment. I am not surprised that 27th thunderstorm potential went away on the 18z run yesterday.
    That is a setup what the 12z GFS was showing yesterday if it was 24 hours prior would be concerning.

    1. There are still “some” possibilities down the road. We just have to wait and see as we get closer.

      The Weather for Father’s Day is looking mighty fine at the moment.
      Cookout at my Daughter’s is looking good.

        1. 😀

          I’ll have to go off my diet for a day.
          I don’t consumer sugar anymore. Ice cream is my
          Achilles tendon.

          Down 41 pounds since 2/5.
          Exactly 1/2 way to my goal.

            1. I like any flavor. Chocolate is my least favorite, with believe it or not, Vanilla
              my most favorite.

              I could eat 1/2 gallon at one sitting.
              Once I start eating ice cream I cannot stop.

              Of course it is one of the worst possible foods anyone could ever eat. Instant heart attack!!!

  8. Thanks TK !

    If the weather did this from now to September 15th, I would be content for the warm season.

    Low 80s, sunshine, low humidity. Warm enough for the beach or warm season activities with comfortable nights.

    I saw the reference to summer of 1988 yesterday. Wasn’t that the year of Hurricane Gilbert ……. I might have the name wrong, but the very intense hurricane that slammed the Caribbean and the Yucitan Peninsula ……

    1. I believe you are correct and I agree with the weather. It would be awesome.

      How was Canobie Lake?

        1. Excellent. What grade as I do not remember.
          Was it just your class? the whole school? all of a certain grade? Curious.

            1. whole cluster? Never heard that term in this regard. So I would guess there
              are about 3 or 4 6th grade classes and therefore the whole cluster meant
              ALL 6th grade classes?

              6th grade…hmmm I have no idea how
              it is set up these days. When I was in the 6th grade, I had one teacher that taught all subjects. My understanding is that
              you teach Math. Do they have it set up
              differently these days? Just curious.

              I couldn’t imagine trying to teach multiple subjects other than say Math and a Science.

              I was thinking of teaching Math at one point. Happy I didn’t and the students would be happier still. I would have made the worst possible teacher of all time. If a student didn’t get it, I’d get very impatient and probably not be very nice to them.

              I am CERTAIN that you are the exact opposite and are wonderful to/for your students.

              1. In Marshfield, 6th grade begins middle school. In some districts, 6th grade is still elementary.

                Because its middle school, the students have 1 teacher for each subject.

                Each grade is broken up into 3 fairly equal clusters. For whatever reason, the clusters don’t choose the same field trips.

                Thanks …. I’d like to think my patience is constant positive feedback is one of my strengths. Its a big part of my teaching philosophy that students will overachieve their abilities in a structured but relaxed environment. I personally never did well with teachers that were excessive with discipline or intimidating.

                3. Tom I lived in fear of math in sixth grade and into 8th. I spent more time in tears than doing anything positive. Then in 9th I got geometry…no thanks to the teacher. And in 10th I finally had a teacher with your approach. I learned to love math and was surprised it was my strength. I also ended up the only girl in my trig class as a senior. I’m not surprised at your approach but as a person who struggled wanted to thank you because you are doing exactly what most of us need

                4. Joe starts middle school next year . Pembroke is grade 7 & 8. I liked how elementary school was 6 yrs. promotion night is this Monday night where they get shirts and yearbooks and 1/2 day Tuesday . Not sure why they don’t cut them loose Monday night after the ceramoney

  10. Thanks TK! JP–great news that you lost all that weight. That is not an easy task. It takes a strong-willed person to accomplish that so kudos to you! Tom, glad you had fun yesterday at Canobie. The weather surely cooperated!

    1. Thanks Arod. I am getting used to it.
      It’s a life style change and I had a health scare to force me to take action, else I’d still be eating my face off. Turns out the health scare was a false alarm (mis-Diagnosis) and all is very well, but I wasn’t about to quit the weight loss since I was well on the way. My wife has been after me for years, but I wouldn’t listen.

      Reaching the 1/2 way point is a nice accomplishment, but I can’t stop now.

      This was no miracle diet, no fade diet, no weight watchers or any other program. It was simply stopping sugar consumption and watching my
      portion sizes. Nothing else. Not even exercise, although that would be a nice addition. (I do, however, take the stairs at work ALL of the time and NEVER take the elevator. My office is on the 3rd floor. When I run errands, I always park in the farthest space from the door. Little things) That is all it took. I used to consume 27 ounces of coke at lunch and dinner in addition to crap loads of cake and cookies on top of that not to mention at least 2 mugs of coffee each morning with about 10 teaspoons of sugar in each.

  11. What beutiful day! Sun, decent temps, and finally got rid of the strong winds. Picture perfect late spring early summer day in my book.

  12. Looks like a good next 7 days, Most days in the 80s but upper 70s Friday… Looking good… beach day coming on the Monday…. 😀

    1. Not sure about upper 70s on Friday. I’m thinking lower to middle at best. Some coastal spots may not even make 70.

      Tuesday could be interesting around here in terms of thunderstorms, but it depends on the timing of the front. I’ll worry about that closer to the weekend when the details start becoming a little less murky.

      12z GFS is forecasting an 850mb temp of 34.3C in Phoenix Sunday evening. We haven’t been that warm at the surface yet this year.

      1. 93.74 at 5,000 feet. I suppose that isn’t so impressive, given
        that Denver routinely spikes into the 90s during the
        Summer season. But that would be pretty damn hot at
        the surface for Phoenix, elevation: 1,086′.

        If you are saying Tuesday, 6/21 could be interesting that is
        saying something. I kind of poo pooed the Euro severe parameters. I just looked again. Something is there, but not
        alarming just yet. Please keep us up-to-date with your thoughts.

        GFS shows some instability then, but outrageous.

        Something to watch for sure.

          1. 12z GFS has LIs to -7 and CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg in a narrow stripe from N/W CT into Central/NE MA ahead of the front Tuesday PM.

            http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016061512/150/sbcape.us_ne.png

            http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016061512/150/sbli.us_ne.png

            Given that it’s still 6 days away I’m not too worked up about it yet, because as I said, a lot will be determined by the timing of the front. However, it’s close enough that it caught my attention, and is something I’ll be keeping an eye on over the next few nights at work.

            1. Appreciate your thoughts as always.

              If I haven’t said it already, I for one, really
              am happy that you are here and participating. TK is wonderful, but it is fantastic to have another Met chiming in and sometimes filling in the blanks when TK is otherwise tied up.

              We are MORE tuned into the weather here than by watching any weather outlet around.

              I saw those GFS parameters as well.

              Over time, I have simply learned NOT
              to get too excited (whether or not I post about it) when it’s many days out.
              We get a few days out and all over it like flie on S**T!! I’ll still look at the stuff many days out, but I know that generally it ain’t gonna happen. 😀

              Well we have 2 models pointing at this.

              Interesting that the CMC isn’t even at
              the same dance.

              1. SAK catches plenty of details that I may miss. We’ve always kind of done that, though I’d say he tunes me into something I miss more often than I catch something he hasn’t. It’s his keen eye. 😉 So listen to him. He’ll have much to offer. 🙂

      2. Sak you will find that I tend to worry about the Merrimack Valley. Area tends to be a bit warmer than others during the Late spring through Mid summer time. I was stating the highest extent that we could see. My point is that it looks like warmer weather is likely than what we have been having. Looks like a small shift in the weather pattern.

      1. Turn around is fair play, no?

        Let’s see what the 12Z Ensembles show. Need to wait a bit for those.

        1. The 12z Euro actually has a LOT of support from the Ensembles now. However, it’s also just one run. While the Op run has been fairly consistent, the Ensembles haven’t, If I start to see some consistency from the Ensembles, I’ll give it some more credence.

  14. 12Z Euro shows thunderstorm potential for the 21st and the 22nd.
    I would say marginal for severe. Nothing terribly major at this point.
    We shall see.

  15. That low ain’t comin’ up here on Sunday. It never was, except in some simulations gone awry. 😛

  16. The Euro may be poised for a win, at least in a sense. It’s idea of bringing the low back in increasingly appears to be a good one, especially in light of the 18z GFS. Still, it’s not quite the same as what the Euro showed a couple days ago. Timing is pushed back so that it won’t ruin the weekend even if it happens, and it looks like even if the low does push up here it’ll be running out of gas big time. It may end up backing in too far south to worry us. Have to watch the incoming cold front as well, as that will surely sweep out anything left hanging around.

  17. Also, just one run of one model, but the 18z GFS has some pretty big severe parameters for Tuesday, especially areas south of Boston. I think that one will all come down to the timing of the front. Should be HHH weather out in front of it. Plenty of time to watch.

    2. Thank you weathewx. South being southeast? Southern MA even central? I’m never sure what south means but suspect south of Boston means south shore areas.

      1. On this run, pretty much everywhere south of the Pike. But that will surely change run to run 🙂

    1. The bulk shear on that run is 50-60 knots. Impressive. Also check out the cross over chart on pivotal weather. I am mobile and it is too much of a pain to post.

  19. I’m sure BRG will agree with me on this, but the 6z and 18z runs of most of the models carry significantly less weight with me. The 00z and 12z runs have the benefit of all of the upper air data from the weather balloons. That data doesn’t exist for the 6z and 18z runs. Instead, they get initialized with a blend of some aircraft and satellite data and the 6-hour forecast from the previous run.

    1. Thank you for that information. We’ll continue to watch as those ate pretty juicy parameters and the gfs does not usually over cook these.

  20. Morning…6Z GFS mot out far enough. 0Z gfs has made the severe parameters
    for Tuesday go poof. What a surprise. 😀

    1. 6Z GFS far enough now. Also POOFARAMA!
      Has some instability up North, but ZIPPO down here.

      1. Hehe. I do remember actual temps of 114 in Spokane years ago as I’ve said here. It is hot but a different heat. However, as Maca cousins in AZ say…..110 is 110 – don’t let anyone tell you it isn’t hot.

  22. Of course, it hasn’t verified yet, but seems to me the GFS’ long term vision of this ocean system might perform better than the EURO’s take. The further S and E idea of the GFS seems to be the more accepted scenario as we get closer.

    00z GFS is quite summary in its entire run. Jet stream fairly far to the north, 850 mb temps consistently at 12C or higher:

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