Thursday Forecast

55 Comments

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 16-20)…
High pressure will be in control through Sunday. Elongated low pressure will slide out south of the region through tonight with some high cloudiness. This low cuts off well offshore and eventually may drift close enough to bring some cloudiness and possibly a shower risk in by Monday.
TODAY: Filtered sunshine. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s. Wind light N with sea breeze developing.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs from the lower to middle 70s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the 80s.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs 70s coast, 80s interior.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 21-25)…
A broad trough of low pressure will traverse the northeastern US sending a couple fronts through the region with air mass changes and a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms. This may sound like a wet forecast, but rain may be quite limited overall. Temperatures not far from normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 26-30)…
The final days of the month still look like they will present limited shower/thunderstorm chances and mainly dry weather. Temperatures near to above normal.

55 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    It’s really looking DRY for quite a ways out there.

    I could see it going weeks without any rain here.
    Yes, “perhaps” we’ll see a shower or thunderstorm, but I am not impressed
    with those possibilities at the moment.

    Waiting on 12Z runs for any changes.

      1. Of course. We’ll have a tropical Deluge! 😀

        Hope not, not that weekend anyway. Days before or days after
        but NOT on that weekend.

        Right now long, long range has it looking aok, but it is so far out there, we KNOW that will change.

    1. Right in Northern NE and perhaps far Western NE.

      And right on, 6Z went totally poofer on us.

      Right now, it’s really not the thunderstorms I care about, it’s the rain.
      It is getting very dry around these parts. Without T-storms, we don’t exactly
      get a lot of rain in Summer time.

  5. Had an unexpected shower a few hours ago that did nothing more than wet the ground. We need a lot more than that.

  8. Where the U.S. Open is being played currently in weather delay and getting rain that we could use here in SNE.

    1. I don’t see anything even remotely concerning with the 12Z GFS all the way
      out to 384 hours. Ho Hum Of course, things can change.

  10. I would agree nothing at all impressive. Boring weather but hopefully this changes since as indicated earlier we do need rain. Almost all of CT is abnormally dry and I noticed parts of North Shore in moderate drought.

  11. This is why I don’t focus too much on the details except for the 1st few days. Things will always change from run-to-run. The setup is still there for thunderstorms on Tuesday. We’ll have a cold front approaching from the west and a warm/humid airmass ahead of it. That got my attention. I’ll worry about the details in a few days, when its closer. Those details won’t become clearer until Saturday or Sunday at the earliest.

    I forecast for a lot of clients around central and southern New England as part of my job. The forecasts I write tonight go out 5 days, so Day 5 will be Tuesday. For the 1st 3 days, I have to go into detail, breaking the day down into 3-hour segments with weather/sky cover, temperatures, wind, precip amounts. For Days 4/5, all I have to do is a general summary of the day and a high/low temp. We do this because beyond Day 3, the details are too murky to pin down. So tonight, my Day 5 forecast for all of my Southern New England clients will probably say something to the effect of “partly sunny with a chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. Yes, it’s pretty vague, but I don’t have to worry about specifics for a few more days.

        1. Yup and it works very well. That’s why we like
          the NO-HYPE style, yet when need be, he let’s loose and it sounds like SAK will as well.

        2. We both learned how to forecast when the models were very basic. We also had to learn how to forecast for places that had extremely limited data. (We also both worked with some REALLY great forecasters who taught us a lot.) We didn’t/couldn’t rely on the models. We had to actually make a forecast.

          My current boss (who worked with TK and I back in the day) said it best – most of the people who graduate with meteorology degrees today aren’t forecasters, they are ‘data analysts”. They look at the models and that’s their “forecast”.

          Oops, showing my age again.

          2. Thank you SAK.

            You stated: “most of the people who graduate with meteorology degrees today aren’t forecasters, they are ‘data analysts”. They look at the models and that’s their “forecast”.

            Truer words were never spoken. EXACTLY the problem out there. There are still some old school Mets like Harvey Leonard and Barry Burbank and we can probably throw Eric Fisher in there even though he is considerably younger.

            Most especially most of the Weekend Mets.
            See model, spout forecast. We here on this blog can even tell which model they are spewing.

            In any case, it is very refreshing to see
            TK’s and your approach here.

            I still catch the weather on TV, but my best source is ALWAYS right here.

            Not only do we get an accurate forecast, but we
            get instantaneous updates when conditions are
            changing.

            Love it.

            THANK YOU TK again and again.

  12. Get a lighter gradient and Viola, instant sea breeze.
    Even if there isn’t a rip roaring sea breeze along there coast, there is one
    and the Ocean temperature is responding.

    The latest from Boston Buoy at 1:50 PM:

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 62.8 °F

  13. 2PM, 75 at the airport with an EAST wind at 11.5 mph.

    At 12:30PM it was 79 at my house in JP.

    1. No more bone chilling sea breezes for awhile. You really can’t tell the difference anymore.

      1. With a lighter sea breeze, agree 100%.
        Let me know how you feel about it tomorrow. 😀

        You WILL feel it tomorrow.

  14. Dr. Gregg Forbes take on Tuesday thunderstorm chances.
    Since when does TWC stick it’s neck out this far?

    TUESDAY 6/21
    Isolated severe thunderstorms along a cold front in north south and west ME, NH, VT, central and west MA, CT, east and southeast NY, NJ, east and south PA, MD, DE, VA (except southeast), WV, southeast OH, west NC, TN, north MS, northeast AR, extreme north AL, extreme southeast MO. TORCON – 2 or less. A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in east KS, central and east OK, west AR, south MO (models differ on exact threat area). TORCON – 1

    https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/t31.0-8/13412110_10153676419343201_7806239560299788100_o.jpg

      1. I was just thinking the same thing.

        Health reasons? who knows.
        He is a pleasant enough fellow. Quite likable.

        Perhaps he is being pressured by executives?

    2. I have not watched the Everything-But-Weather Channel for probably a decade or more. However, I agree with the basics of that. it matches what I said earlier. A cold front slicing across a warm/humid airmass. That’s always a basic recipe for at least some severe weather.

      1. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds as we get closer.
        Of course, if that front slices through in the middle of the night, well say no more. 😀

      2. Two of the best cable creations of all time, TWC & MTV, with such promise at the start, both turned out so unwatchable that it was laughable.

  15. The CMC severe parameters for next week are laughable. He he he
    What parameters???????????????????????????

    1. The 12Z Euro severe parameters for next week are equally laughable.

      So what does this mean? We get nothing or do we get a sneak attack and get
      blasted?

      One thing I do NOT want and that is another Hail Storm like we had
      what last Summer or 2 Summers ago?

  17. Most of the models and what I thought would happen are slowing the Front, Sending the bulk of the precipitation over night Tuesday, Thus also allowing it to warm into the mid to upper 80s. Could see some good activity to the west of the area

  18. Timing will be key and plenty of time and things will change. Certainly an air mass will be in place that will be conducive for thunderstorm development should that front come through during peak heating.

  20. Sorry link didn’t work
    AT 423 PM EDT…A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MARTINSBURG…
    MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. PEOPLE IN BERKELEY AND MARTINSBURG
    SHOULD TAKE COVER NOW.

    HAZARD…DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

    SOURCE…EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

    IMPACT…FOR THOSE IN THE DIRECT PATH OF A TORNADO
    TOUCHDOWN…FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT
    WITHOUT SHELTER. DAMAGE TO ROOFS…SIDING…AND WINDOWS MAY
    OCCUR. MOBILE HOMES MAY BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. TREE
    DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

    THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR…
    MARTINSBURG AROUND 430 PM EDT.

    OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
    HEDGESVILLE…JONES
    SPRINGS…VANVILLE…TOMAHAWK…BERKELEY…ARDEN… JOHNSONTOWN AND
    MARTINSBURG AIRPORT

  21. This same system is the reason play was suspended at the U.S. Open. The players with afternoon tee times today did not even tee off.

  22. Over 2″ of rain at Dulles Airport in 1 hour this evening, most of it in a 20-minute span between 8:55 and 9:15pm. While that much falling that quickly is bad, we really could some some rain like that up here.

  23. For those of you who love a good old-fashioned East Coast Storm, there is one on the horizon. A developing storm will move up the coast this weekend bringing winds of 30-50 mph and 2-5″ of rain to the big cities…..of Brisbane and Sydney. What, you thought the US was the only place in the world that gets storms that move up the East Coast? This is the 2nd one for Eastern Australia this month, and winter officially starts next week.

    1. I remember forecasting some pretty decent coastal bombs down there in my “Reu” days.

      1. They get about 6-8 really good ones every winter, which isn’t that much different from here.

        Although I don’t have to forecast for there, most nights I take a look at weather around there world. Always looking for interesting things to tweet about (on both my and the company’s Twitter feeds).

        Might be some severe weather across Central/Eastern Europe today. A little closer to home, frost advisories have been posted for this morning for parts of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. (It’s 38 in Estcourt Station, Maine right now).

        1. There’s still a chill up there, but it happens.

          I’ve been glancing at the maps around the world again a bit more of late, just more from curiosity than anything else.

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