Saturday Forecast

103 Comments

8:13AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 18-22)…
No significant changes today. Still the only rain risk this period comes Tuesday with the passage of a cold front, the timing of which is being slowly nailed down and we now have a 12 hour window of between noon and midnight on Tuesday. Upper level low pressure will indeed stay offshore through Monday far enough to be of essentially no influence and high pressure will be the controlling force until Tuesday’s front arrives, along with a general warming trend. Another high pressure area will move in behind the front with dry weather Wednesday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s but cooling down at the coast during the afternoon. Wind light N to E.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from the lower 50s interior to upper 50s coast. Wind light SE to S.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from the upper 70s South Coast and Cape Cod to the 80s elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SW.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from the upper 70s to upper 80s, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms from late morning through afternoon. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s to lower 90s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 23-27)…
A disturbance will bring a chance of some wet weather later June 23 into June 24 with cooling temperatures. Mainly fair and warming temperatures June 25-27.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 28-JULY 2)…
Risk of a few showers/thunderstorms early in the period then trending drier again. Temperatures near to above normal.

103 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK. Looks like the timing on that front has sped up a lot, might be too early to give us much in the way of showers/storms as it stands now. Better chance over the mid-Atlantic.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Still waiting for an explanation of what caused those thunderstorms last night.
    In JP we got the light show and could hear awesome thunder, but hardly a drop of rain
    as the rain was “just” to the East and SE of us.

    I saw Pamela Gardner last night on the 11PM Broadcast. Her explanation was
    Pathetic! She basically said it was due to the heating of the day.

    It must of been some sort of energy rotating down from the North and/or northeast.
    It seemed to intensify right over Boston. Some sort of convergence going on.

    TK? SAK? anyone. I won’t rest until I know exactly what caused that convection.

    Many thanks all.

      1. I just read last nights comments. Seems a lot had storms ….was it just along the coast? Very very cool

      2. Yes Vicki at 11PM of all things.
        Yes right along the SHore.

        Boston’s observation at 11PM

        HEAVY THUNDERSTORM

    3. We had thunderstorms pop up Northwest of my area, basically forming right along the worcester hills, then moved southeast. Had a few lightning strikes, small weak rumbles of thunder, surprise showers as well when I was in the pool lol

    4. I found this comment from a local Meteorologist. Can you guess which one?

      This rode right down a boundary left behind by the sea breeze earlier today.

      1/2 an explanation is better than none. 😀

  8. Loved reading about the musical artists.

    Someone mentioned one I hadn’t heard of in a long time.

    The BoDeans.

    I liked them, but I couldn’t put them in a top 10.

    An honorable mention for me would be

    The Who, Tom Petty and Joan Jett.

    There are not many new artists that I like. I guess I’m old and don’t care for most of the new stuff. Occasional artists I still like. I actually don’t mind
    One Direction, One Republic and Imagine Dragons.

    Fun stuff. Thank you all for sharing.

    And thank you SAK for that new link. I need to add that “everywhere”. 😀

  9. Thank you TK and Happy Bday Vicki!

    I too was quite surprised about last night’s rain. I saw lightning out in the distance but could not hear thunder. We had quite the downpour though.

  11. First the timing for the front Tuesday was too late, then it was just right and now
    it is too early.

    In weather, it’s timing like location in real estate.

    timing appears to suck.

  14. Thanks, TK. We were out early last evening and I noticed in the Sudbury-Wayland area how unusual and beautiful the clouds and the sunset were. I had no idea there were thunderstorms developing until I looked at the radar later. I said to my husband, “that wasn’t supposed to happen!” I wonder what caused them?

  15. Thanks TK !

    Happy Birthday Vicki !!

    http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12&region=us

    Here’s the water vapor loop, last 12 hrs. I think there was an upper level disturbance rotating south last night. The heart of it passed east of us, but it looks like the western edge of it clipped eastern New England.

    Also, the surface winds turned S and SW yesterday evening, probably in advance of this feature. Meanwhile, at the harbor buoy, they were still SE.

    So, perhaps a bit of convergence and then the lift provided by the western edge of the upper level disturbance ????????

    1. Thanks Tom. That sounds very reasonable especially since it echoes
      what My guess was above.

      Beautiful Day!

      Hope to go fishing after lunch. Going for a drive to pick up some baits
      as I today I don’t feeling like tossing lures all afternoon.

      Bait of choice: Live Night Crawlers
      Large Mouth Bass LOVE them! Only problem: Smaller fish peck away
      at the night crawlers. Side benefit: even IF I don’t grab a large mouth,
      I will catch many other kinds of fish. I love the variety.

        1. Hopefully, the fish will be around. Just a couple of hours to
          relax. My wife has some other things to do.

          Thank you.

          I’m really not fishing (well I am) but rather Bass Hunting. If you find them, usually you can get them to take the bait. On the other hand, if you redropping bait into the water where there are no fish, well then good luck. 😀 😀 😀

          Sometimes, a decent sized chain pickerel will grab
          that night crawler.

          Over the years, I have a decent sense of where they might be. Doesn’t always work of course, but I usually have pretty good luck.

          Thanks again.

  16. Thank you everyone for the birthday wishes. It sure is a lovely day.

    Did folks post their top 10 and I missed them yesterday? I still have two to eliminate. Old salty, I also like older artists but you sell yourself short as you list newer artists than I know 🙂

      1. As long as we are having fun, how about a list of
        Artists we have seen in concert? That should be interesting.

      2. Thanks TK. I smiled at your opening sentence today. Do no significant changes apply to getting a year older? Or is it just a day older 🙂

  17. NWS just a few minutes ago re: Tuesday

    Tue and Tue night…
    With low pres offshore, warm advection and increasing dwpts,
    atmosphere looks primed for convective activity to be ignited
    along cold front and pre frontal trof.

  18. Friday night thunderstorms…

    I was aware the conditions were there but under the impression we needed more trigger. We did not, so I blew that forecast. Basically the storms were born initially of orographic lift in western Maine and east central NH that got the cumulus growing. Instead of dissipating with the setting sun as I thought the showers that resulted would, a combination of outflow boundaries from the initial showers, a sea breeze boundary left behind from the daytime that had not washed out, a sharp temperature gradient with advancing cold air aloft from the north northeast, just the right amount of wind shear, and a small but strong jet streak about 25,000 to 30,000 above us which provided air evacuation out the top allowed the storms to build and sustain well into the night. They were not super thunderstorms, but nice decent surviving storms in a very dry atmosphere, which was impressive.

    1. It was impressive. IT become particularly strong right over Boston.
      It was an awesome light show. It didn’t rain here, other than a few sprinkles.
      But the lightning appear close and so did the thunder. Heavy rain was not
      far from here.

  19. Thank you TK. Absolutely gorgeous morning. Enjoyed a nice breakfast at a little place on Monponsett Lake with my youngest son. Perfect start to the day. Now it is time to watch the skydivers.

  20. As we have been saying during the week, trying to do anything beyond wild speculation almost in the land of fantasy about details regarding the thunderstorm threat for Tuesday is not going to get you very far in terms of making a decent forecast. Ideally when we get to about 48 hours out we should be able to start outlining details, so we’re just beyond that at this point with the potential / likely event now 3 days away. The initial concerns I have are the following:

    In favor of storms: A decent pre-frontal trough and cold front slicing into a warm and somewhat humid air mass.

    Not in favor of maximizing the potential: The chance that the pre-frontal trough timing is such that it is coming through between 15z (11AM) and 18z (2PM), cutting off the sun at max heating and not having had enough time to build a decent line or area of storms, then stabilizing the atmosphere long enough so that by the time it “recovers”, the front is coming through by late afternoon and anywhere north and west of Boston get basically nothing, and storms are limited to CT, RI, and southeastern MA. This is an issue we have dealt with before.

    Again, speculation. It’s 3 days away still. We’ll revisit this tomorrow and of course input from anyone is always welcomed. SAK if you are out there I’d love to hear your thoughts when you have a chance.

    One thing we don’t have to speculate on, just enjoy, is the fabulous weather weekend. 🙂

    1. Thank you for your thoughts.

      Just came back from Quincy along Quincy Shore Drive. Brrr chilly there
      with the wind really blowing in from the Atlantic. Car was reading just 70.

      It’s 75 here with and East wind.

    3. Looks like 12Z GFS wants to rocket the front through over night Monday into
      early Tuesday AM.

    4. That’s pretty much the briefing I gave my replacement in the office this morning. I did post some initial thoughts on the 00z GFS in the comments late last night. I have not looked at anything yet today, as I’ve only been up since Noon. (If you got home from work at 5:00am, you’d sleep until Noon too).

      1. I did that for a while in the early days of REU. Hated it. 😛

        Thankfully my doctor advised against such activity once I was diagnosed with my autoimmune disease in 1994. 😉

  24. Tuesday looks like the only day with some weather action especially if that front comes through during peak heating. Otherwise its a boring weather pattern.

    1. Figures. I know how to pick days to travel (next Tuesday). Well, this one was picked for me by the conference organizers. I’ll let you all know how I fared drugged out on Dramamine (my go-to `tranquilizer’ on flights) as my Delta flight rocks and rolls down the Eastern Seaboard.

      1. My sister in law is scheduled to fly the Boston Atlanta route coming up. I wonder if you’ll be on her flight

  25. June is a great month for birthdays. I remember when I was a kid and LOVED summer because it meant time off and no school (Alice Cooper’s song was stuck in my head then), I was jealous of friends who had birthdays in June. Later in life, I was blessed to have a son whose birthday is in June (the 24th).

  26. Blackstone, you mentioned the poor state of Sox pitching in a post yesterday. I agree with you. Wright is great, but he’s a knuckleballer and we know how inconsistent that pitch is. Price is doing well, finally, but he’s the only starter I truly trust. Their bullpen isn’t anything special, either. Pitching is their Achilles heel and it may be their undoing. Toronto is a better team, I think. It may be difficult for the Sox moving forward. Can’t count the Yankees out. They have excellent pitching. With an added bat or two they’re a contender for the Al East title. I hope I’m wrong, but I see the Sox finishing 3rd or 4th this year, with around 82-84 wins.

    1. Keep the faith Joshua. Dombrowski is not going to let this season be
      wasted. He will pick up the desperately needed pitcher to put them over
      the top. Also, you neglected to mention Porkcello whose ERA is now at
      3.81. He is NOT a #1 pitcher, but he is a solid #3 type of guy. If Dombrowski could add a #2 or 1A type, we’ll be fine. 😀

  27. First and, most importantly, Happy Birthday, Vicki!
    Hope you’re enjoying your special day!

    It is the best weather day of the spring!

    Does anyone know, off hand, what the yearly precipitation/rainfall average is for Boston?

    I am curious to know where we stand for drought/rainfall long term. I know we are running a deficit for this year and we were way off in 2015 despite the record snows.

    We reset the precipitation data to 0.00″ on January 1, but nature doesn’t. Does this make sense? Lakes, rivers and watersheds don’t return to normal every New Year’s Day.

    I wonder what our total rainfall rate is for the last 18 months, 2 years, this decade, etc….I can “crunch the numbers” when I get a free hour. Right now, that will be in 2021! Final exam time.

    I am working on my Top 10 all-time rock group list. Hint for my number one: It’s where I got my WHW blog name from…

    Enjoy this magnificent day, and Happy Birthday again, Vicki

    1. Thank you, Captain. I’m anxious to see everyone’s top 10

      Your points are great on deficit. If we are below average at the start of the year (and I thought we had been for a couple of years), it seems it should be cumulative. But then when would you start?

      Are you working the data? She said hopefully 😉

  29. Vicki, I am on the 2:48pm flight (Delta) to Atlanta on Tuesday, coming back to Boston on Wednesday on the 6:55pm flight.

  31. going to the beach for fathers day goin to be a nice day going to Salisbury…. Love the the beach, still do not understand them saying We can not skimboard, This is why I can not wait for them to leave when it comes to Salisbury, friends of mine and many other people have argued, that most states, do limit the activity to certain areas of beaches but they do not ban them entirely, Usually have an area set a side for the water sports. Massachusetts not so much. Which I think needs to change, Would like to hear your thoughts on this. Would you guys support setting a portion of the beaches to allow skimboarding. Many private beaches allow them on the cape.

    1. Most beaches are big enough that there could be an area set aside for such activities.

  32. Average rainfall
    total 43.77
    winter 10.39
    spring 11.55
    summer 10.46
    fall 11.37

    The average for boston is about 8 to 10 inches less than the rest of the State.

    Fore example Billerica (Just south of Lowell)
    average 48.8
    Winter 11.15
    spring 13.3
    summer 11.7
    fall 12.2

    and just for fun for the new members boston average snowfall
    43.8

    Billerica 56.9 inches is the average

    Also remember Boston gets its information at the Airport 😉

    1. Not quite sure where you got those numbers for Billerica, but I have 125 years of climate data for Lowell.

      Based on the 1981-2010 Averages:
      Annual: 45.09″
      Winter (Dec-Feb): 10.36″
      Spring (Mar-May): 12.06″
      Summer (Jun-Aug): 10.96″
      Fall (Sep-Nov): 11.72″

      Based on the 1889-2016 Averages:
      Annual: 42.82″
      Winter (Dec-Feb): 10.29″
      Spring (Mar-May): 10.89″
      Summer (Jun-Aug): 10.74″
      Fall (Sep-Nov): 10.91″

      Snowfall 1981-2010 Average: 54.6″
      Snowfall 1929-2016 Average: 55.8″

  33. Top 10 caliber day today for sure. There’s potential, finally, for a good region-wide soaking late this week, but lots of model divergence. ECMWF doesn’t have anything, while the 18z GFS shows significant rain Thursday-Friday.

    Also, in the tropics, it’s increasingly likely we will see “Danielle” in the Bay of Campeche tomorrow or Monday. It would be the earliest fourth named storm on record. While this still doesn’t say much for the rest of the season, most of the signs to me seem to point towards activity being at least a little above normal.

    1. Increasingly likely we see Danielle? No, it isn’t. The vast majority of the models never get the system to tropical storm strength before it moves into Mexico.

      1. We shall see. NHC is now at a 70% chance of development. Reconnaissance is scheduled to investigate later today. Models, especially global ones, can struggle to resolve Bay of Campeche cyclones due to resolution issues. The bowl shaped topography of the surrounding land is famous for helping spin up tropical storms. Of course, given numerous limiting factors, it’ll be another weak storm if it develops.

  35. Happy Birthday Vicki! 🙂

    Just for the record regarding last night’s thunderstorm, it did rain here in Dorchester briefly. It started just before 11:00 and lasted until almost midnight.

    The usual nighttime scary storm. 🙁

    1. That’s the other restaurant owned and operate by the Wahalbergs, Mark and Donnie and their brother
      PAUL.
      I believe their mother is Alma. Enjoy.

    2. Love Alma Nova. Mac and I went many times. I sure do like the way they have redone the area. Hingham sure has some great restaurants.

  37. Was a pretty cool day in the city. I had to make a side trip
    To Marshfield this pm. Was on the beach for a few minutes. It was 66.

  39. Some power outage issues here early today, fixed now but I have an errand to run so the update will be a little later (around 10AM or so).

  40. Good morning and a very happy Fathers Day to all the dads. TK…..no hurry with update. It is your day.

    1. Thank you, JPD

      Daughter got call at 1:00 am. We are less than 10 minutes from their house so are shower and cooking and washing central.

  43. Happy belated birthday, Vicki.
    I like to wait til the next day to send good wishes…..makes the celebration last longer.

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