Sunday Forecast

147 Comments

11:04AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 19-23)…
And after having a 12 hour window of the PM hours on Tuesday, today I make an adjustment back slightly to account for the increasing chance of a morning to early afternoon cold frontal passage on Tuesday. This would limit the risk for showers and thunderstorms. Will monitor for any changes. Otherwise, high pressure remains dominant today and Monday. Low pressure passes well offshore late Monday and early Tuesday with no impact, then after the cold front a low pressure trough at upper levels and northwest flow at lower levels will deliver some slightly cooler and dry air for Wednesday. A disturbance may come along as early as later Thursday with a risk of some unsettled weather but there is also a shot this system misses to the south late in the week.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from the upper 70s South Coast and Cape Cod to the 80s elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SW.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from the upper 70s to upper 80s, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms from morning through early afternoon. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 24-28)…
Slight wet weather risk early or middle part of June 24 depending on the track of a disturbance. Fair weather most of the June 25-26 weekend with a warming trend, but a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms late in the weekend. Fair June 27. Showers/thunderstorms possible June 28.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 29-JULY 3)…
A mostly dry pattern with limited showers/thunderstorm chances. Temperatures near to above normal.

147 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  4. Sure looks like frontal passage will be Tuesday AM. Nam delays it a tad to allow
    activity SE of the City. GFS rockets it through with virtually nothing as does the Euro.
    When it’s dry, it’s dry.

    We shall see.

  5. 12z NAM the only American model showing instability Tuesday and that is in the southern areas of SNE.

  6. Happy Fathers Day to all of the dads, step-dads, grandpas and all who fulfill those roles in life!

    Drought: (awkward transition!)
    I looked up precip numbers for Boston-Logan short and long term and measured them again the average precip for Boston which is 43.76″

    So far this year through June 19 we’re -3.10″ which is 15.0% below normal.
    For the last 18 months (almost) since January 1, 2015 -12.11″ (18.8% below normal)
    Since January 1, 2012, -24.82″ (-12.7%)
    This decade since January 1, 2010 -12.94 which is -4.6% below normal.

    For what I can read and understand, drought is measured using five measures of criteria, two of which are lack of precipitation and soil conditions for crops. Drought is also measured short term (present back to the last 6 months) and long term (6-60 months).

    So we’re hurting in the short term and in the immediate long term. But this decade, we’re somewhat close to normal. That doesn’t help my browning grass, but it’s what TK has been preaching to us: That weather and climate is cyclical.

    That’s the best I can do. It gets far too complicated for me from here. That’s why I am a high school Spanish teacher and not a meteorologist.

    1. Captain, I’m sorry it took me so long to post. I read your comment and then headed out. Thank you for the incredible amount of information. I’d say the best you can do was very excellent!!

  7. Now, something that I totally get:

    My Top 10 Rock Star/Band list:

    1. Elton John
    2. The Rolling Stones
    3. U2
    4. The Who
    5. Dire Straits
    6. David Bowie
    7. Queen
    8. The J. Geils Band
    9. The Police
    10. (tie) Simon and Garfunkel/Paul Simon
    and Stevie Wonder

    Bubbling Under the Top 10: Bruce Springsteen, Chicago, Prince, The Talking Heads

    1. “bubbling under” A great term from Billboard magazine.
      Love your list..About the only group I was not big fan of was Queen..nor am I big solo Paul Simon fan.

    2. J Geils. Awesome. I have one of their albums in vinyl kicking around here somewhere.

      Don’t care for Elton John’s music, but recognize and appreciate his greatness.
      I don’t care for and never did care for Steve Wonder. Hated his music
      since the day he was called “little Stevie Wonder”.

      Nice list.

    3. One of my favorite Elton John songs (among the dozens that I love) is “Blues for Baby and Me” on the “Don’t Shoot Me I’m Only the Piano Player” album (yeah I still call ’em albums). The song is beautiful and Paul Buckmaster’s orchestration is fantastic (he really made a lot of Elton’s early stuff shine).

    4. Great list. Many are on my big list. Odder girlie (am I being sexist) ones are making their way to the top 10 🙂

  8. Bonus: My All-Time Top 10 Favorite Songs:
    (in no particular order):
    “Driver’s Seat” by Sniff ‘N The Tears
    “Gimme Shelter” by The Rolling Stones
    “Sympathy for the Devil” by The Rolling Stones
    “Rocket Man” by Elton John
    “Funeral for a Friend/Love Lies Bleeding” by Elton John
    “Heroes” by David Bowie
    “Lawyers, Guns and Money” by Warren Zevon
    “All Mixed Up” by The Cars
    “You’re So Vain” by Carly Simon
    “Hurricane” by Bob Dylan
    “Somebody to Love” by Queen

    Oops, that’s 11.

    2. Lobe Hurricane as well and love Zevon. It’s a shame he is no longer with us.

      Driver’s Seat is a classic. Love that tune.
      Sympathy for the Devil may be my all time favorite (Get Your Ya Yas Out version only)

  9. Top Live Songs:

    “Free Bird” by Lynyrd Skynyrd (“One More From The Road”)
    “Stairway to Heaven” by Led Zeppelin (“The Song Remains The Same”)
    “While My Guitar Gently Weeps” by All-Star Band from Rock and Roll Hall of Fame honoring George Harrison with an incredible solo by Prince
    “Comfortably Numb” by Pink Floyd
    “In Your Eyes” by Peter Gabriel (“POV” concert)
    “One O’Clock Jump” by Benny Goodman, 1939 Carnegie Hall concert

    1. Nice. Don’t know that Pink Floyd tune nor the Benny Goodman tune, although
      I assume it is swing and I don’t care for swing. My musical range is limited
      to Rock, Blues and limited Pop & classical. Don’t care for country, Hip hop, Rap, R&B, Swing and I loathe Jazz. (but given that I have thoroughly enjoyed seeing
      Cher, Celine Dion, Madonna, Kelly Clarkson, James Blunt, Bryan Adams, Train and Maroon 5 in concert)

    2. Wow….I’m loving reading these. All but pink Floyd song which I do not know are very much on my list of favorites.

  10. Enjoy this beautiful day, everyone.
    Great sports day on TV: Red Sox, US Open and Game 7 of the NBA Final

    2. Hoping for a great game seven. All six games winner has one double digits. I want to see some drama in the final two minutes.

  12. Yes, today was that day everyone was dreading…even the TV people… You know, that huge upper low that was supposed to cause rain, northeast winds, and temps in the 60s? What a lousy day it turned out to be! 😛

    “Meteorology, not modelology.” 😉

    1. TK, I fell for that model forecast. Remember what I said on Monday. I was completely wrong.

      Speaking of droughts and flooding, sometimes it’s hard to find an equilibrium. A large portion of the Lower 48 is suffering from drought or at least water deficit, while a large portion of Northern Europe is being inundated by rain in the form of soaking rainstorms and periodic thunderstorms. Tomorrow will feature a soaker moving across the low countries, adding lots of water to an already saturated area. And more storms and plain rain are in the forecast later this week in that part of the world.

    2. Yea well haven’t I mentioned the Mac factor. Perhaps the tv folks didn’t know to take that into account

  13. So school ends tues in Uxbridge. But is cancelled tomorrow because of water situation and my guess is will be cancelled tomorrow. Snow days are bad enough. Cannot imagine having to make up last two days

    1. That’s my guess will be cancelled tues and not tomorrow. Already said that. Perhaps I could learn to read before hitting post

        1. by the way, the last song in this past season one is not part of the show it is the stupid fight song

  15. Comfortably Numb by Pink Floyd. Easily one of the top classic / progressive rock songs of all time. It doesn’t rank way up on my list but I understand why many would put it quite high on the list. Very well-written tune on an iconic album.

  16. Some of my favorite albums –
    Graceland – Paul Simon
    Abbey Road – The Beatles
    Cream of Clapton – Eric Clapton with various bands and solo
    Blood, Sugar, Sex, Magic – Red Hot Chili Peppers
    Achtung Baby – U2
    Synchronicity – Police
    White Album – Beatles
    Take 5 – Dave Brubeck Quartet
    Faith – George Michael
    Disintegration – The Cure
    Brothers in Arms – Dire Straights
    Songs in the Key of life – Stevie Wonder

    Way past my bedtime – I’m sure I’m forgetting lots. But pulled an all nighter last night so that’s the best I can do with just two neurons firing!

  17. If I’m stranded on a desert island and can only bring 20 albums with me, they’d be the following, in no particular order:

    “Destroyer” – Kiss
    “Master of Puppets” – Metallica
    “Operation: Mindcrime” – Queensryche
    “Metropolis Part 2: Scenes From a Memory” – Dream Theatre
    “Pyromania” – Def Leppard
    “Escape” – Journey
    “Boston” – Boston
    “Surfing With the Alien” – Joe Satriani
    “Moving Pictures” – Rush
    “Innuendo” – Queen
    “Led Zeppelin IV” – Led Zeppelin
    “Appetite For Destruction” – Guns ‘N’ Roses
    “The Joshua Tree” – U2
    “Raising Hell” – Run D.M.C.
    “Shout at the Devil” – Motley Crue
    “Vulgar Display of Power” – Pantera
    “Dark Side of the Moon” – Pink Floyd
    “No Fences” – Garth Brooks
    “Van Halen” – Van Halen
    “The Number of the Beast” – Iron Maiden

  18. 0Z Euro, 6Z GFS and 6Z NAM want to bring a slug of rain in here on Thursday.
    we could use the rain. This feature was mentioned in TK’s discussion, which is the
    ONLY place I have seen it discussed. Looking more likely now.

  20. Will our wind direction be South or SouthWest today?
    HUGH impact on High temperature.

    My guess is more South, limiting Boston to low to mid 80s while say Merrimack
    Valley could reach or exceed 90.

      1. I agree with you. Natural southern to southeastern New England A/C. By about 5pm yesterday, the shade was a bit cool with the beautiful southerly breeze.

        1. We were out in Hopkinton, and I could not believe
          how much it cooled off by about 6PM. I was quite surprised. It was still very nice by cooled from about 82, 83 down to about 72.

  21. Hi all!

    I have to wait until my techie is available to fix the login page before I can update, so I’ll get a cheap mobile one in a bit later. In the mean time, carry on here. 🙂

  22. Looks like another nice day on the way. Quite a dry streak though…

    A little bit of history in the southern Gulf of Mexico this morning, as the tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche has become “Danielle”, the earliest fourth named storm on record. It will make landfall later today.

    1. It’s probably a good thing Danielle is about to make landfall. Looking at the satellite loop, it appears there isn’t much wind shear and usually that Bay of Campeche has extremely warm water temps.

      1. Speaking of Danielles, I just found out that this was Danielle Vollmar’s last weekend at WCVB. She’s going to Nashville – her new role will be Chief Meteorologist at WKRN, their ABC afflilate.

          1. I do too. I’ve been to Nashville and watched WKRN. Danielle will be stellar there, they’re very lucky to have her.

    1. Do you wrap up tomorrow, Captain? Hope you have a great summer planned!

      Sutton wraps tomorrow. I don’t know if you saw my earlier post that Uxbridge was supposed to wrap tomorrow but with the ecoli in the water school is cancelled today. Gotta be the worst kind of mishap to make up the last day or two of school!

      1. I’d like to know HOW Ecoli managed its way into the water supply. Is the water supply from a Lake/pond? OR Wells?

        Sometimes from lakes/ponds it can be due to water fowl.

        If it’s wells, then it is usually from inadequate or poorly designed
        septic systems (Or a septic system(s) TOO close to the wells) or it’s animal feces. (These also apply to lake/pond source as well) Hard to imagine anything else.

        Curious to know what it was.

        1. They have well water. My son in law was saying there was ecoli in Bellingham water a bit ago and it was due to a huge ants nest in the well and the ants feces. That really caused me to scratch my head. Son in law has a plumbing business so suspect he will understand it more once it plays out if they release information. Their neighbor has been in Uxbridge 25ish years and it has never happened in that time.

          1. WOW! That’s a new one on me.
            Just out of pure curiosity, can you please share
            when you know.

      2. Final exams today (full day); Half day of finals tomorrow; Teacher day on Wednesday to turn in grades; clean up the classroom, etc.
        Beach chair with my name on it Thursday!!!!
        The state does not waive the 180-day rule.

        1. I smile at the vision of the beach chair. And no they do not waive the 180-day rule. Plus, these are the days the kids find out their new teachers in the younger grades which, as you know is a big deal, and have pizza parties and clean out desks. So they want to go to school.

  24. After dieting for nearly 5 months, I simple ate too much yesterday.
    I’m paying for it today as I really feel sick. STUUUUUUUUUUUUPID ME!!!!

  26. Interesting, Now the latest experimental HRRR has KILLED all convection
    for the Boston area for tomorrow morning.

  27. For Thursday instability on the 6z GFS gets a close by as Fairfield County CT which is in southwestern CT. Looks like we should remain on the cooler more stable side but something to watch as instability is not that far away. 6z NAM only goes out to 18z Thursday and has it in Mid Atlantic. It was at 21z the 6z GFS was showing what I mentioned above.

  28. Alone on a deserted island – and assuming I have an iPod or CD player around with a power outlet (I’m an economist, so I’m allowed to make grand assumptions) – my 10 albums would be:

    1. Beatles, Abbey Road
    2. The Cars, debut album called “The Cars”
    3. Talking Heads, Stop Making Sense
    4. Modern Lovers, debut album called “Modern Lovers”
    5. Cat Stevens, Tea for the Tillerman
    6. Joe Jackson, Night and Day
    7. Rolling Stones, Still Life (live album from 1981)
    8. Joe Cocker, Sheffield Steel
    9. R.E.M., Reckoning
    10. Dire Straits, debut album called “Dire Straits”

    1. I should have added 1 album: Jimi Hendrix, Band of Gypsies – hard to know which of the ones above I’d then remove from the list.

    2. Cool.

      Amazing how many of the albums and tunes make virtually all of our lists and we all have a few that no one has. I find it all fascinating. Thank you for sharing.

      I am thinking about a top 20/25 tunes list and not albums or groups.

      I’d have to get a big list, pare it down and move the order around. Would take some doing. 😀

      1. I’m paring down slowly but my list will be pretty different…although I enjoy most all folks have listed. I didn’t know a bunch of SAK’s but that would be an age gap I think.

  29. Interesting situation with our Daughter and SIL out in Hopkinton.
    Vicki, you may appreciate this:

    Our Daughter and SIL were awoken yesterday morning at 4:30AM but the sound
    of Hoofs pounding the driveway. My SIL first thought it was the Mother of all Deer, but when he looked out the window to his dismay, he saw 4 horses running up the driveway to proceed to frolic and run around in the back yard. It necessitated a call to the Hopkinton Police department who came and chased the horses presumably to find
    the rightful owners.

    We could see the hoof prints all over the back yard.

    Pretty funny story, but we all felt bad for the owners. At least the horses were
    in excellent shape and appeared to be cared for quite well.

    1. Am laughing. Will tell my daughter as she knows several in Hopkinton with horses and teaches one of the owners and her daughter riding.

      My youngest’s pony was a Houdini. He was forever opening the paddock gate and leading whatever horses were turned out with him on a merry frolic through the neighborhood. We finally had to padlock the gate because nothing else would deter him. Funny now but there was always a worry of liability.

  30. Wouldn’t it be funny if she knew who the owners were.
    It was very clear that the owners took excellent care of the horses. My SIL told me they were well fed and groomed. So I am sure it was a crazy situation much like you
    describe.

      1. They are about 1 mile from rt. 85 with a lot of open woods/fields
        between them and rt. 85. So it is “possible”. Who knows.

        1. Daughter said owner of horses that she teaches txt’d her this am to say she had to take one of horses to vet with a puncture wound so daughter wondering if it could have been her horses.

  32. Lucking out with the timing of the front coming through.
    Hopefully some much needed rain later this week.

    1. NADA! as far as I can see. All the instability is off shore by about 8AM.

      Discrepancy between NAM and HRRR re: convection for tomorrow AM.
      NAM=Yes
      HRRR=No

      Will continue to monitor.

  34. We may also be lucking out on Thursday not getting into the unstable air.
    Interesting little note from NWS out of Upton which makes me want to keep an eye on it just in case.
    Consensus currently keeps the track to the south of the
    region…targeting the svr/flash flood threat more across
    central/southern nj down to the mid-atlantic. SBU sensitivity
    analysis indicates a stronger pac shortwave and resultant upstream
    ridging though would track this low farther north. Should see more
    clarity on this over the next couple of days as shortwave energy
    works from western into central us…although ongoing convection
    with this system will play a part in modulating the track of this
    system as well.

  36. That run of the 12z NAM keeps the instability way south of us. Of course this is still out there and the NAM isn’t the best that far out in time.

    1. That is why I am keeping an eye on it. When you see the SPC highlight an area beyond day 3 something is up.
      Of note the 6z GFS did get instability into southwestern CT.

  41. Ok my ability to edit is back but now I have 3 crazy hours ahead so the update today wI’ll be after 3PM. See you then!

      1. I know. I want it frequently updated though and now my day just get moreget more complex. I’ll still update asap. 😛

    1. JJ that link directs us to the main College of DuPage website, which is fine
      because I just chose all of the maps I wanted to see. You may have to open
      image in a new tab and link to that for a specific map.

      True, the GFS is never that aggressive with the severe parameters and the
      gfs get them well into Mass even touching on the Boston Suburbs.
      It clearly has the low passing farther North that the NAM and shows dew points in the lower 70s across CT and Western MA with a dew point of 69 all
      the way to Boston. And there is still time for this to change a bit.

      The helicity values are very high.

      Will look at the Euro in an hour or so. 😀

  43. Thanks for that info JPDave.
    Will see if the GFS stands alone here. Clearly big difference in terms of instability with the two American models. I wonder if this going to be like tracking a snow threat in the winter where each runs it keeps creeping further north. In this case were talking instability and not snow. As we get closer the SREF model and see if its highlighted area moves to the north.

    1. Could be. We shall see. If that low tracks farther North, we’ll be in it for sure.

      Will check on Euro now to see IF far enough out.

      1. At 96 hrs, it’s south of Cape Breton Island Nova Scotia.

        Assuming no coastal redevelopment, if one were to draw a line btwn the 72 hr low position and the 96 hr low position, the sfc low probably does track across southernmost CT, RI and MA.

      1. However, Euro takes Low out to the coast in Southern NJ, completely eliminating ANY threat up here.

      2. This is a watcher, at least for sfc low track the next 24 to 36 hrs to see if this northward trend continues …….

  45. One common signal the GFS and EURO both have ……. About a day or 2 after this low passes by, it starts to warm up and by late in the weekend to early next week, a strong signal is there for it to be very warm to hot.

    1. Shhhh, we can do without that, or at least My wife and I can do without that.
      How it has been would be just fine with us. 😀

  47. Station 44013 (LLNR 420) – BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA Image indicating link to RSS feed of recent meteorological observations for station 44013
    Boston Approach Lighted Buoy BF NOAA 44013

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 60.4 °F

    We had it this warm 2 full weeks ago.

  49. GFS and EURO don’t agree what else is new.
    From NWS out of Upton, NY on positioning of low for Thursday which is key.
    The resulting track and intensity of the surface low is
    uncertain with the European model showing the wave moving south of
    the area across central NJ while the GFS model shows the low moving
    across central NY State. Sensible weather north of the low includes
    widespread rain with embedded convection, while south of the low
    there is both severe weather and flash flood threats

    1. Exactly and therein lies the problem.
      Waiting on the 18Z NAM. Coming out now.

      Latest SREF shows very high severe parameters in the Ohio Valley leading
      up to Thursday, but it is not out far enough yet.

      ALL high including tornado ingredients, tornado parameters, super cell,
      and derecho.

  50. In real estate is location location location
    In weather its track track track
    Perfect example on Thursday how a track of low pressure is going to make a big difference in outcomes whether like Upton, NY said were dealing with some much needed rainfall and some convection or something more.

    2. When? During day “should” be fine. There may be some showers around
      first thing in the morning. Latest 18Z NAM has precip from “about 6AM”
      to about “10 or 11AM”. After that aok. Again, this is from the NAM run.

      1. Hrrr has showers blow through about 6AM and out of even the South Shore by about 7AM. Pick you poison.

  52. 18Z NAM takes the low for Thursday and tracks it right along the New England South
    Coast delivering a huge slug of rain to all of SNE. That would be welcomed.
    Keeps any severe threat to the South of SNE.

  53. Ya know that song penned by “Christopher” a.k.a. Prince and made famous by The Bangles? Yup…that describes today. Update shortly after 5. PROMISE.

    1. John, I simply gave you what the 18Z NAM showed. The HRRR is a totally different story. personally, I’d go with the HRRR. It looks to rain, but perhaps
      not for very long if you believe the HRRR.

      I would listen to TK that’s for sure. I just responded because you had asked.

    1. Worst case scenario is a line of convection holds together and gets everyone. But even if that happens, it’s going to be out of here by mid morning at the latest.

  58. Uxbridge going with 179 days. Half day tomorrow. No one can drink. And school is over. Not sure what they r doing for those with finals.

  60. At midday today the nation’s cold spot and hot spot were in the same state at the same time…

    59 at Eureka CA
    117 at Palm Springs CA

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