Wednesday Forecast

84 Comments

3:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 22-26)…
A disturbance passes by later this morning and early this afternoon from west to east and may kick off a few showers and even thunderstorms with a slight risk of small hail. Severe weather is not expected to occur with this passing system, which will be gone by late in the day. A large part of the day will be rain-free and quite nice. The system producing the rain threat for Thursday is largely dependent on the development and movement of a complex of thunderstorms in the Upper Plains to Upper Midwest, and indications are that this initial batch of thunderstorms will move in such a way that the resulting blob of rain will stay largely south of New England as the energy passes by Thursday morning and midday. High pressure will move in Friday with great weather then settle to the south during the weekend, which will feature a significant warming trend, with the feel of summer heat before it’s over.
TODAY: Variably cloudy through mid afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with possible small hail, from late morning to mid afternoon, favoring northern MA into NH. More sunshine later in the day. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy morning and midday with a period of rain possible near the South Coast. Increasing sun later in the day. Highs in the 70s. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s South Coast, middle 80s to lower 90s elsewhere.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27-JULY 1)…
Fair, very warm, and humid June 27. A weakening front is expected to move into the region and slowly dissipate, but cause a daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)…
Look for mainly dry and warm to hot weather during this period as a high pressure ridge builds in the region.

84 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thank you TK

    Been watching the clips on the medical rescue from Antarctica. Amazing. 24 Hr dark with -100 wind chill in their winter. The plane was able to depart this am which was good news

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Will it rain today or will it not? Ah, that is the question.

    btw, BB last night said NO RAIN tomorrow with partly cloudy skies. Now that
    would be really nice.

  5. FWIW, the HRRR shows some showers in the Boston area around 16Z
    and again around 18Z (Noon and 2PM). We shall see. 😀

  7. From NWS

    Shortwave over the Eastern Great Lakes will swing across New
    England this afternoon. This crossing will take place at the time
    of maximum heating. While it is dry at the surface, with dew
    points in the 40s and low 50s, cloud level moisture is higher and
    will generate some sky cover later this morning and afternoon.
    This and some marginal instability will be able to generate a few
    showers and possibly isolated thunder. Best chance will be in
    areas north of the Mass Pike.

  8. So far, the HRRR depicted shower activity in Southern NE is NOT verifying.
    So far on Radar ONLY the Northern NE convective activity is verifying.
    Unless something changes soon, SNE may be left out of the shower activity.

    There is still time, so we shall see, but I am thinking that this convective activity
    may be confined to Northern areas, mainly North of the MA/VT and MA/NH border.

    Again, we shall see as the day progresses.

  9. Probably a big rain opportunity now largely missing Thursday.

    Have to figure as we get deeper and deeper into summer, the rain chances are going to be reliant on scattered showers and thunderstorms.

    1. and I have conflicting wishes on this because I love all the sunny, warm weather we have been having and want it to continue.

      But looking at the landscape, it is more obvious by the day of the growing need of a day long rainy day.

      1. Yes, Noticed that Sunday on our drive out to Hopkinton.
        All of the lawns that have not been watered are stressed and/or
        turning brown already.

        And agree, unless there is some sort of tropical connection, most summer rain is convective in nature. Not all, but most.

        re: Today
        It keeps looking more and more like activity will be confined
        to areas North of here. Still some time, but it is running out.

        1. Our new neighborhood has irrigation systems. Even those lawns are showing some green but are still stressed but all have nearly full sun exposure.

  10. Confirmed tornado yesterday near Baltimore.
    Howard Co. tornado confirmed by NWS 1 mi. SW Poplar Springs, PRELIM. RATING EF0, 80 MPH WIND, WIDTH 500 YARDS, LENGTH 12.75 MI., ENDED 148PM

    1. Interesting. I think the rotation I saw yesterday, was leftover.
      OR I just plain couldn’t find it, but the area and timing was really close.

      Thanks for the info JJ

  12. There was another tornado warned storm near Cape May, NJ and looking at those pictures it looks like a tornado touched down there.
    I was thinking thankfully that front came through when we didn’t have peak heating or we could have been dealing with the storms the Mid Atlantic region saw.

  13. re: rainfall deficit and overall dryness

    I read an article (trying to find it again) that the rise in gypsy moth population this spring, while still somewhat cyclical, has been exacerbated due to the lack of rainfall. When trees have adequate water, they produce a natural fungus on the bark surfaces around the trunk. This fungus slows down and controls the gypsy moth larvae as they hatch thus limiting the population. Without adequate rainfall, the trees don’t produce this fungus and rather go into energy conservation mode. This has been going on now for the past 5 or 6 years as each spring/summer gets dryer and dryer. This also has complications for elevated fire danger as we get into the summer months. Deforested trees and continued lack of rainfall is a recipe for forest fires.

  15. Now we are getting some action in the 496 belt, both North and South.
    South is out by Hopkinton.

      1. Yes, it runs under a certain house in Woburn.
        I think some guy that runs a weather blog lives there.

    3. It was looking a bit threatening out there with some low top cumulus clouds. Showers dancing around us but one hasn’t hit our neighborhood yet.

  16. HRRR was making an attempt to depict thick mid level convective clouds as precipitation.

  17. 12z GFS even further south on tomorrow’s system.

    If you take the current location of the mid west precipitation, factor in the upper flow and kind of extrapolate its future trajectory, it’s going to be tough perhaps for even the south coast to see any worthwhile rain.

  18. A shower here in Boston. Nice to at least see a little rain again. Heard some very early yesterday morning as well as cars drove by my apartment on the wet pavement.

  19. Rain along Rt 16 Wellesley to natick/sherborn line

    Dry through Hollidton. Nothing but clouds in auto on/uxbridge

  20. 12z GFS has a nutty with a tropical system in the Gulf very late in the long range.

    Will have high pressure there in same time period on next 00z run 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Odd as it was just past there at newton wellesley where I ran into rain at noon when I left NWH

    1. Stopped to treat myself and my kidney stone, which is behaving quite well, to Chinese on way home from newton wellesley so just came through Uxbridge and into Sutton and it was pouring. Biggest thing through was wind. A couple of big branches across two different roads in Uxbridge. Small branches and leaves down elsewhere. Temp also dropped from 79 to 64 on car thermometer in minutes.

  25. Since June 11th have only had a brief shower last week. Missed out on the showers and storms yesterday morning. Tomorrow looks like a miss with the rain.

  26. I just heard that there was a shooting at or near the New England Baptist Hosptial.
    The Hospital is on lock down. This comes from a Mission Hill Resident. I do not
    know about the accuracy.

          1. I am beginning to think the source was mistaken and it was/is a false alarm. Will continue to monitor just in case.

  28. Imagine being a Wampanoag Indian in the 1600s. You’ve had little or no rain during planting season. There’s no irrigation system in place. It must have been a hard life during years that saw uneven precipitation. I can understand the Native American polytheistic rituals which included praying to a rain God.

    1. You suppose they were smart enough to irrigate from the many local
      rivers, ponds and lakes?

      1. Sometimes I think we are learning what was already discovered prior to our era. In this instance, the Tivoli gardens in Italy came to mind. The Native People coule have had knowledge we have yet to figure out.

      2. Yes, I think so. They were not far from water sources, unlike, say, many African tribes. And surely their crops were growing in proximity to ponds and other water sources. But, a lot of manual labor would be involved in irrigating crops the way they did.

        1. Of course, it should be said that many of the crops native to America – all squash types, for instance – were/are relatively hardy as the Pilgrims found out after arriving here in 1620. Prior to 1620, they had never eaten squash of any kind. The Indians showed them which crops to plant. Here’s where I imagine myself being a Puritan cook, having to deal with a totally different set of ingredients. No longer pork and cabbage-based, along with a game sort (Turkey) they had never seen or eaten before, foreign-looking and tasting berries (cranberry), different starch (potatoes of both the regular and sweet kind).

    1. It is out here as well but just south of us continues to be covered by layers of thick clouds.

  30. Just had 0.68″ in a little under 20 minutes here in the City of Champions from a storm that rolled through. It was coming down hard for a while.

    1. Nice. Didn’t happen up this way.

      City of Champions….Hmmm

      Rocky Marciano
      Marvin Hagler

      Are 2 that come to my mind.

      1. (Except when Woburn beat Brockton in the superbowl … IN Brockton…) 😉

        Heeheehee

        1. What about 1987, when Brockton beat Woburn 28-0 in the Super Bowl? I remember it – I was in Foxboro for that game (my sophomore year at BHS).

          They were 41-2 in my 4 years there, and 1 of the 2 losses was to a team from NY that later admitted to using ineligible players.

          Oh, and did I mention that Brockton has won more football games than any other high school in this state?

            1. Oh I never denied that overall they have had far more wins / championships. But given the size difference in the schools our win down there was pretty cool. 😉

              Woburn had an anomalous team that year. They were basically unbeatable.

    2. Do they eat the Breakfast of Champions in the City of Champions? (sorry, couldn’t resist)

  32. 1. Native Americans had their version of irrigation
    2 they usually planted by the rivers or in areas in which held water.

    I also know from my mother who is int ancestry site , that I am a relative to one of the pilgrims. and one of the higher ups

    2. If your ancestors were at Plymouth you must have read “Mayflower” by Philbrook. If not you have to.
      Unbelievable what they went through.

        1. I would also be interested in reading. I work with someone who is a direct descendent of Bradford and Alden

  34. How many days of perfect weather have we had? They just keep on coming and I’m too busy enjoying them to count. Spectacular.

  35. Small tornado box southwest of Chicago and a Tstorm warnjng south of it. The cells coming off Lake Michigan look strong

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