Thursday Forecast

44 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 23-27)…
A low pressure disturbance and weakening complex of thunderstorms will pass south of New England today and we’ll only see some of the high cloudiness from it, which will be a little thicker along the South Coast for a while. High pressure will move in Friday with great weather then settle to the south during the weekend, which will feature a significant warming trend, with the feel of summer heat before it’s over. By Monday, we’ll add some humidity to the mix as well.
TODAY: Sunniest north, less sun south through midday, then mostly sunny all areas later. Highs in the 70s. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s. Wind N to variable 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s South Coast, middle 80s to lower 90s elsewhere.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s except cooler South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 28-JULY 2)…
A weakening frontal boundary in the region and an overall warm and humid pattern will allow for a daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 3-7)…
Look for mainly dry and warm to hot weather during this period as a high pressure ridge builds in the region.

44 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK. Amazing that 48 hours ago today looked like a washout. The US models really blew this one bad.

    2. I have a friend who works out at the NWS in Michigan. On Facebook the other night, he had shared a blog of someone who detailed how the American models have fallen either further behind in performance verification after recent upgrades. The physics of the atmosphere was lagging in American models.

      I think I also read recently that Panasonic has an upgraded version (of the GFS) that kicks ass.

  6. The Euro may not be stellar with it’s temperature predictions, BUT the 0Z Euro
    has six (6) consecutive days of mid-70’s high temperatures starting with Monday.
    The Mrs. would be extremely grateful for that.

    Not sure what it is seeing, but that’s what it has.

  8. Thanks, TK.

    We’re mired in a drought. Well, “mired” is the wrong operative word as the weather has been dandy, it’s just that the water deficit is alarming. Central and Western Europe continues to suffer from a deluge of flooding rains, thunderstorms, wind, and weather havoc. Serious flooding now in the Western flank of Holland. Any time that happens it’s worrisome, as the Western part is below sea level. The dike system is extremely sophisticated and reliable. The 1953 disaster in which thousands lost their lives in Zeeland triggered massive investment in dike infrastructure. Nevertheless, there are occasional mandatory evacuations from areas considered at risk for dangerous flooding. I’ll try and picture this for you. Many cities, towns, and villages are situated in what are essentially flood plains surrounded by dikes and waterways. Driving next to a dike you can see ships sailing above you on the waterways. It’s rather incredible the first time you see it. I like to use the bath tub metaphor. The cities, towns, and villages are basically at the bottom of a massive bath tub, with the sides of the tub representing dikes. If there’s a breach, the inhabited areas will quickly fill up with water.

      1. Again, you and Joshua bring Mac to mind. Joshua, I believe of all of the wonders he saw, seeing ships sailing above was one of the most impressive. Thank you for your wonderful visual.

        MassBay…a hauntingly beautiful song. I had not heard it. Thank you also. I had heard Mac reference the Zuider Zee and the project to reinforce the dike system.

  11. Models…

    Normally they have trouble resolving energy associated with thunderstorm complexes. Nothing new here. This is why I played more the fence instead of diving fully into the soaker. You don’t have to shift as much once you figure it out.

    ECMWF sfc temp forecast too cool again.

  12. Outside shot that a few locations see 90+ Sunday thru Tuesday. Will NOT be widespread.

  13. for those that like to go to the cape. There have been more and more Grey and Harbor seals. Colonies have been breaking up and sub sections moving all over the place, The increase has led to an increase of north Atlantic white sharks which were around but not being seen, rarely known not being studied, believed to be hunting big fish in deeper water before their more preferred food (seals) increased. Long Island is now a Nursery for white sharks. (studies still going on) People are saying we need to start hunting seals again… Hunting seals is what started the imbalance in the first place. In my opionion, we need to leave them alone and let the sharks deal with the population. Nature balance’s itself out eventually. The swings between Prey and Predator will be extreme at first, but over time the change will be no really notice able. People just need to learn that we go into their realm. People need to realize this. The reason why I say this is that they have found a couple of white sharks moving a bit further northwest than usual, up by Province town. usually they stay further south and east. Just respect their presence, Do not fear them. An other reason why I mention this is because of the stupid movie the shallows.

  14. for those that like to go to the cape. There have been more and more Grey and Harbor seals. Colonies have been breaking up and sub sections moving all over the place, The increase has led to an increase of north Atlantic white sharks which were around but not being seen, rarely known not being studied, believed to be hunting big fish in deeper water before their more preferred food (seals) increased. Long Island is now a Nursery for white sharks. (studies still going on) People are saying we need to start hunting seals again… Hunting seals is what started the imbalance in the first place. In my opionion, we need to leave them alone and let the sharks deal with the population. Nature balance’s itself out eventually. The swings between Prey and Predator will be extreme at first, but over time the change will be no really notice able. People just need to learn that we go into their realm. People need to realize this. The reason why I say this is that they have found a couple of white sharks moving a bit further northwest than usual, up by Province town. usually they stay further south and east. Just respect their presence, Do not fear them. An other reason why I mention this is because of the stupid movie the shallows.

    there is my rant for the day

  15. Thank you TK. Haven’t been able to get on here much lately. My poor stepdaughter has a very rare tachycardia and has been experiencing frequent episodes. I know you can relate TK. She is now scheduled for her second cardiac ablation on July 13th. I sure hope it works this time.

    1. Sue, I am so sorry to hear your stepdaughter is struggling with heath issues. My prayers and thoughts are with you all along with big hugs and lots of love.

    2. Let’s all send our positive energy. It will work and she will be better. 🙂

  16. Sad story out of China today, where a strong tornado reportedly struck an urban area, killing 78 and injuring hundreds.

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/23/asia/china-tornado/

    The US fared better overnight, as while there were some tornado reports in Illinois and a swath of sporadic wind damage reports from the ensuing line that developed, overall damage was minimal. Certainly we avoided a repeat of the June 2012 derecho, though the line of storms last night might still qualify as a derecho.

  18. Sue, I hope your stepdaughter gets better soon. That’s a difficult condition to deal with. Good luck to her.

  19. Our poor Red Sox are faltering again. I mentioned 1977 as a parallel, but one need not go back that far. In the early 2000s the Sox had several rather incredible starts to the season. Better than this year. And, by late June they were also faltering, only to crumble completely by September. Hopefully my gut feeling is wrong, but I’m not seeing a positive outcome for this team. Cherington’s blunders that amount to hundreds of millions of dollars are still part of the problem. Farrell is a concern as well. His in-game management leaves a lot to be desired. And this includes his selection of pitchers to go to from the bullpen. The offense was bound to revert to more normal output. But, when all is said and done the name of the game is pitching and this team has limited talent at best, aside from Price, Wright, and Kimbrel (and even Price and Kimbrel have not exactly been consistently lights out this year).

    1. I can point to 3-4 losses this year so far where the manager has had a major hand in the outcome

      1. Indeed. Farrell is intelligent. Probably a nice guy to deal with for players (though probably not so nice in the eyes of his ex-wife; she’s hardly ever mentioned in the media and the Jessica Moran saga must have been really hard for her). But, he’s horrible at in-game decision-making. I think he’ll be gone by the end of this year. Perhaps as early as August.

    2. You only need to go back to 2011 and the September disaster. I’ve been on the #FireFarrell bandwagon since April.

    1. Don’t laugh but…IIRC it is almost similar to TK’s thinking. If I am not mistaken, the only difference is that TK believes that most of our cold & snow will occur during the first half of winter as opposed to Accuweather’s second half.

      Regardless, my money is always on TK’s forecasts. 😉

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