Tuesday Forecast

79 Comments

7:31AM

Going to mess with the format slightly here and you’ll see why…

DAYS 1-3 (JUNE 28-30)…
This covers the final 3 days of June, 2 of which will carry unsettled weather as a cold front slowly passes through the region today and Wednesday with a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms. The greatest chance of activity comes first thing today over RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH, tonight anywhere in the region, and favoring eastern areas Wednesday. Though a few downpours may occur, a widespread beneficial rain is not very likely. High pressure will move in during Thursday and provide some very pleasant summer weather.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers moving across much of northern RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH through mid morning and into parts of southern RI and southeastern MA later in the morning. Isolated showers possible anywhere during the remainder of the day. More humid. Highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Wind S to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs in the 70s. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy morning. Sunny afternoon. Less humid. Highs in the 80s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 4-7 (JULY 1-4)…
High pressure will be in general control for the holiday weekend Friday July 1 through Monday July 4, with the only interruption coming in the form of a weak cold front which will cross the region in the early hours of Saturday with a risk of a shower or thunderstorm in a few areas.
FRIDAY: Sunshine, late clouds. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
SATURDAY: Clouds overnight with a risk of shower or thunderstorm, lingering into early morning, then clearing. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
MONDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 8-15 (JULY 5-12)…
Transitional pattern during this time with a warm to hot and dry start for the first couple to few days, a risk of showers/thunderstorms mid period with a trough passage, and a shift back to warm to hot conditions by the end of the period as the jet stream lifts a bit to the north and a ridge of high pressure builds in the upper Midwest to Great Lakes.

79 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    YUP, got the change. Wasn’t obvious at first until I did a quick compare with some
    previous days blogs. 😀

  7. Thank you, TK.

    The `height’ of summer may be on our doorstep, 6 months removed from its counterpart, the `trough’ of winter. Of course, when we get our hottest and coldest periods changes from year to year, but on average mid July is hottest, and mid January coldest, in these parts.

    This morning’s brief downpours in Boston felt really good as I was doing my morning run. Yes, I got completely drenched, but it was warm rain and sort of refreshing.

  9. And the Sox “JUNE SWOON” continues. They look absolutely pathetic, although
    they did manage to score 7 runs and that “should” be enough to win, but since
    they have ZERO pitching, how on earth can they win???

    PISS POOR PITCHING = PISS POOR PERFORMANCE!!!

    I am about ready to completely give up on this season. POOOOTHETIC!!!!

    FIRE the MANAGER! He couldn’t manage his way out of a wet paper bag.

    There, now back to weather. Wish it rained more this morning. It still looks like
    there “may” be another shower but that will be it until late tonight I think.

    1. Eduardo Rodriguez has been optioned back to Pawtucket where he will probably stay until given his outright release. See Ya. Nice knowing you.
      Btw, they should do the same with Buckholz!

      That leaves 2 gapping holes in the rotation to be filled by 2 Mystery players to be named later. They have NO pitching.

    2. Firing this manager should be a no-brainer. The problem isn’t the pitchers, its the manager’s inability to get the best out of them. Farrell was always touted as a pitching guru, especially when he was with the sox as a pitching coach. He was able to get the best out of that bunch in 2007. Until recently, I thought it was just his in-game management that was lacking, but with the recent pitching woes, if he can’t even get the best from this group of pitchers (which I don’t think are as bad as they’ve been as a staff), then what good is he? Bad in-game manager and now can’t get anything from his pitchers? FIRE HIM. What are they waiting for?

  10. Not to mention Price who is suppose to be the ace of the staff has a 4.68 ERA. 7 yrs 217 million for a guy who can’t get it done in the postseason.

    1. He can’t get it done in the regular season either based on his performance to date and we are just about 1/2 way through the season. He’s no #1 starter. He has been performing like your average #4 or #5 starter or worse even.

  11. Your best starter is Steven Wright with a 2.18 era. Just looking quickly at the stats for some of the other starters Porcello 3.93 era Price 4.68 era Buccholz 5.90 era.
    Tough to be a good team when you have those types of era’s. Same situation with the Yankees three out of the five starters have over a 5 era.

  12. From NWS, best bet for rain late tonight into the wee hours.

    Tonight…

    Showers and thunderstorms will be on going across Eastern NY early
    this evening. This activity will attempt to work into western
    MA/Northern CT by mid to late evening, but should weaken with
    diminishing instability/poor mid level lapse rates. Still may see
    some thunder and brief locally heavy rainfall in these locations.
    Greater threat for scattered showers/thunderstorms with brief
    locally heavy rainfall may set up across Eastern MA/Eastern CT and
    RI near or after midnight. This on the nose of a 30 to 40 knot
    southerly low level jet, MUcapes between 200 and 500 J/kg, and PWATS
    between 1.5 and 2 inches. Guidance not completely sold on where and
    if this sets up, but given the above parameters certainly a
    possibility. Severe weather threat looks rather low given limited
    instability/timing. Bulk of the activity should be offshore near
    daybreak. Low temps will mainly be in the 60s and may see some
    patchy fog develop

  13. 12Z NAM is NOT sold on much precipitation for our area overnight. a tenth or 2 is all.
    Not good. It would have been nice to pull at least 1/2 inch out of it. Does not look
    to be in the cards, unless things change.

  15. I wish the front wasn’t so slow. Been having breaks of sunshine and the air is humid and any sun on days where you have humidity and a front coming through during peak heating things could get interesting.
    Just watch those storms fade as they get into western SNE later today.

  16. Wright’s ERA when all is said and done will be what most knuckleballers’ ERAs are: between 4 and 4.50. I like knuckleballers. I wear my Wakefield t-shirt proudly. But, I’m realistic about their ability to be aces. It just doesn’t happen. So, the Sox problems run very deep. Their entire staff is suspect. Their bullpen is inconsistent at best. They have hitting, but that only gets you some exciting comebacks and some blowouts here and there. I’m serious when I say that this team’s around a .500 club right now, which means it’ll be hard for them to even win 85 games. I’ll go with 82, which is a marginal improvement over last year. Farrell is part of the problem, but lack of pitching talent is the much bigger issue.

    1. Agree Farrell is USELESS. He is an atrocious in game manager. Brutally atrocious!!!

      They are not a 500 team right now, having LOST 10 of their last 15 games.
      They are playing like the CELLAR TEAM they have been the last 2 years.

      And agree totally, the pitching is pathetic!

      re: Knuckleballers
      I disagree with the ERA assessment for Wright. ALthough you are correct for the overwhelmingly vast majority of knuckleballers, I disagree with your assessment of Wright.
      Reason: Most knuckleballers through 1 speed, something like 65-72 mph.
      And when they attempt a fastball it is also about 70-75 mph. Very dangerous
      with major league hitters.

      Here is what is different about Wright and the reason I believe when all is said and done he will have a decent ERA. Perhaps not in the 2’s but certainly the low 3’s.

      1. He changes the speeds on his knuckleball.
      2. He has a fastball at up to 87 mph. When he throws this pitch, it is a change-up in reverse. The hitters are used to seeing that knuckler floating up there
      at 65-72 mph and then wham, an 87 mph heater. That makes it tough to hit.

      The reason he was clocked in Texas was because for whatever reason, his
      knuckler was not knuckling. It happens on occasion. I think he will be just fine.

  19. Re : pattern change ….. Shows up beautifully on 500 mb at 240 hrs on 00z EURO, at least I believe that’s the pattern TK has been expecting to see.

    Wow, the ground is primed to help us overachieve on temps as it did some already the past few days.

  20. Here is a photo of one of the places I fished on Sunday, Clay Brook in Dover.
    This is just before it enters the Charles River which is “just” out of view ahead.

    http://imgur.com/Kuex4eE

    This spot is over fished, but I managed to haul out one Medium sized Large Mouth Bass.

  21. I’m actually enjoying today’s weather, even though it’s a bit humid. A change of pace is good for the mind 🙂

    1. Most especially your area of Ct and neighboring Eastern NY.

      Not too shabby for tomorrow either even for Boston. 😀

    1. Yup, it begins. But the usual story will likely take place. They will weaken and/or die before reaching the coast. Even NAM and HRRR are backing off
      on overnight precipitation. We can only hope.

      We actually might get more in the way of precip tomorrow from
      PM convection. 😀

  25. NWS regarding tomorrow T-Storm potential:

    Wednesday…

    The actual surface cold front will sweep across the region on
    Wednesday. While the vast majority of the day will be dry, there is
    a low risk for a few strong thunderstorms developing Wed afternoon
    ahead of the front. Whether or not this activity develops hinges on
    if enough mid level moisture remains. While this is uncertain, the
    highest risk is across Eastern MA/RI where moisture will be a bit
    deeper.

    We should see 1000+ j/kg of Cape develop across Eastern New England
    ahead of the front along with 0 to 6 km shear values of 30 to 40
    knots. Colder air moving in aloft will result in somewhat steeper
    mid level lapse rates, but nothing too extreme.

    The above parameters are supportive for the possibility of a few
    strong thunderstorms Wed afternoon. However, mid levels of the
    atmosphere will be drying out and may limit or prevent convection.
    So in a nutshell, there is a low risk for a few strong thunderstorms
    Wednesday afternoon with an isolated strong wind/hail threat if dry
    mid level air can be overcome. Highest risk across Eastern MA/RI
    between noon and 6 pm.

      1. Not quite. I looked at the severe parameters from the 12Z Euro.
        Pretty damn impressive off to our West and NorthWest at 12Z
        on 7/8. I am extrapolating some.

        Vorticity Generation Potential (VGP) of .7 near the Buffalo, NY
        area. That my friends is mighty mighty impressive and downright scary. The good thing is, it is 10 days off so we know what that means.

        The VGP climatology shows that supercell tornadoes rarely happen with VGP less than 0.3, and go from unlikely to likely as VGP goes from 0.5 to 0.6, and are likely above 0.6. It’s also possible that the larger the VGP the stronger the tornado.

    4. Interesting, earlier today I cautioned some of my fellow enthusiasts to watch July 7-8, regarding all of New England. Euro is probably a touch slow here, but again with the overall pattern. As for the individual parameters, too early for me to speculate on that.

    1. A push of low level moisture from the south should take care of the sunny breaks for a while soon.

        1. Is that why they call it “partly sunny”????

          You sent the sun here. It just popped out.

  30. Sounds like we might have our first watcher for thunderstorms in the warm weather season.
    Before we get there this from NWS discussion from Taunton
    The attention is more towards Friday night into
    Saturday. Still a timing difference as the GFS is faster pushing the
    front through by 12z Saturday. However the EC is about 12 hours
    slower, which could result in more widespread thunderstorms. In
    fact, the conservative EC show surface based CAPEs around 1000 j/kg,
    with increasing 0-6km shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates.
    This may result in a few strong storms Sat morning

    1. Yes, that caught my attention, but not that much. Still time. We shall see.

      In all honesty, the next real threat will be around the July 8th time frame and that is a long way out, so anything can happen.

      In the meantime, let’s see if more develops for Friday.

      I have to drive to HarwichPort on July 7th for Dinner at 6 PM (Bucca’s Tuscan Road House).

      I sure hope the action doesn’t speed up and I end up missing it on the 7th.
      Let us hope it comes on the 8th or 9th.

    1. Quite a spread there. Euro, clearly the warmest solution, Gfs in the middle
      and the CMC the coolest.

      Throw out the CMC and we’re left with, well, you pick.

      I’d like the GFS for selfish reasons, but it will probably be the Euro that wins out. 😀

    1. Indeed it does. And we know why, a no-nonsense, no-hype approach.
      So when something is up, we take notice. He never sounds the alert unless
      it is a real possibility. Doesn’t always materialize, BUT the possibility was
      very real.

  35. 18Z NAM shows Nothing here for FRIDAY. Appears to slow things down with the
    action either late at night or on Saturday. We shall see.

  36. Quick peak at the 18z NAM looks like an overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Some instability getting into SNE but this a time when we don’t have peak heating.

    1. It is hard to determine that. You could be 100% correct. It also may be
      that it slows it down enough such that the main action is during the
      heat of the day on Saturday. Stay tuned to the latest model runs for changes.
      “could” be very interesting.

  37. I may be all wet OR dry as the case may be, BUT it appears to me that the action
    is NY state is already beginning the decaying process. They do NOT seem as intense to me.

    1. Those storms never had a chance to get too far east.

      Examine the loop. The surface convection (the red/orange echoes) where the storms are being fed has been moving very slowly NNE or even stationary/backbuilding. The more eastward movement noted on radar is due to mid and higher level moisture, or rain falling from a more elevated part of the storm (anvil, etc) blowing along in the stronger upper winds.

      The updrafts will be continuing to weaken in general, with the exception of a few that are orographically forced or the product of a boundary or two from previous storms, and those will be short lived. Otherwise we’re left with remnant rain that will exhaust itself as it moves eastward during the night.

  38. 18z GFS a bit faster getting instability in here on Friday compared to 18z NAM. Bucket load of salt taken since it is the 18z run

  39. So far what I can see from the 18z GFS operational run is that it is worth about as much as a telephone booth in 2016.

  41. Great sky. Low clouds look like snow covered mountain peaks against the higher, more solid, cloud layer

  42. Out in Framingham. Porcello is pitching a great game so far. We really need it. Sox 2, Rays 0

  44. Got my new rain gauge in the mail and just set it up. Now if I could just get some rain to measure 🙂

  45. First Sutton firefly spotted. He entertained us as he flew through the back yard and into memory garden we planted for Mac last weekend where he settled.

Comments are closed.