Wednesday Forecast

119 Comments

7:44AM

Slight format tweak again today.

DAYS 1-6 (JUNE 28-JULY 4)…
Slow-moving cold front continues to crawl through the region today with lots of clouds, humidity, and episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure moves in Thursday with great weather holds into Friday before the next frontal system brings clouds and a risk of a few showers/storms later Friday to very early Saturday. The rest of the holiday weekend looks fabulous as high pressure regains control.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs in the 70s. Wind S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TNIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy morning. Sunny afternoon. Less humid. Highs in the 80s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunshine, late clouds. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly at night. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
SATURDAY: Clouds overnight with a risk of shower or thunderstorm, then partly cloudy to mostly sunny day. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
MONDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 7-10 (JULY 5-8)…
Starting out very warm to hot and dry then a risk of showers and thunderstorms by later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 9-13)…
Fair weather with near to above normal temperatures overall, but may be a few showers/thunderstorms around by late in the period.

119 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Sound great TK. Thank you

    Work to real, honest to goodness rain. Loved the sound and smell. Only 0.65 inch but will take it

    1. You got quite a bit more than me. This morning’s additional rain must have added a bit to your total. I got .27 overnight.

      1. We have 5.08 since noon on May 2 when I set up the weather station. I could see the blob of rain moving N/NE and it was fairly sizable over this area.

  4. Thanks TK.
    Hazardous weather outlook for the region not only today but for Friday in regards to potential thunderstorms
    THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
    AND EVENING

    THERE IS A LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
    FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

  5. From the NWS Taunton discussion in regards to Friday.
    Models are indicating quite a bit of instability, despite the
    timing. The GFS is more unstable, but has earlier timing, with
    showers and thunderstorms occurring during the late afternoon and
    evening on Friday. The ECMWF is overall less unstable, but shows a
    burst of instability early Saturday morning. Will include thunder
    in the forecast for this time period. This period also bears
    watching for the potential for severe weather, again depending on
    timing.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Re: Rain this morning.
    What a JOKE as it all but disappeared by the time it reached the coast.
    Just barely enough to wet the pavement. BOO

    Now for this afternoon. I’ll believe it when I see it.

    1. I knew there was a caveat for this afternoon!

      From NWS:

      However, there is one big negative factor which is
      an abundance of mid level dry air. This may prevent any convection
      from developing…

      1. HRRR shows convection in the Boston area from about 18Z to about 22Z. We shall see.

        4KM NAM show a bit of convection around 0Z

        RAP shows convection similar to HRRR and similar times.

  7. I am looking ahead to Friday.
    Quick peak at 6z American model runs and there both giving SNE instability for late afternoon and evening.

  8. Currently SPC has us in general thunderstorm outlook for Friday. If future model runs show what the American models are showing I have a feeling tomorrow they will place parts of SNE in a marginal risk.

    1. Friday “could” be in the slight risk category, depending upon timing. Probably not, but “could”.

  9. I believe we are about to break out into sunshine. It is becoming increasingly brighter
    out here and I can see patches of Blue Sky. Fuel for the firing of storms?
    If we get some sunshine Capes will exceed 1,000 joules and perhaps approach about
    2,000 joules. The front will provide lift. Mid level dry air? Ah, that is the question mark.

  10. If that front comes through during peak heating Friday there certainly looks to be enough instability being shown by the 6z American models for thunderstorm development.

    1. Latest HRRR was showing some down here firing up in the next couple of hours. I’ll believe it when I see it.

      1. I was tied up at a very very long meeting, so I didn’t have a chance
        to check that.

        So, thank you for that. I echo your sentiments: I also will believe it when I see it.

        I spent a ton of money on a new front lawn and I have been wasting much time watering it frequently in these extraordinarily dry conditions. I feel like I am fighting a losing battle. The sunnier side is hanging tough, the shadier side
        is showing stress no matter how much I water it.

      2. It actually shows quite a bit of convection down this way.
        Let’s see if it truly develops.

  17. Latest mesoscale discussion from SPC pretty much stating that a watch will be unlikely for northern parts of New England.

  18. Pretty potent cell with a severe thunderstorm warning in New Hampshire.
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    NORTHEASTERN COOS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE…

    * UNTIL 215 PM EDT

    * AT 125 PM EDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
    DIXVILLE…OR 11 MILES EAST OF COLEBROOK…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
    MPH.

    HAZARD…PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

    SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

  22. Rain in Boston early this morning was indeed pitiful. Glad it rained, but not enough for even a sparrow to have a decent bath in. And after this water deficit, those sparrows are pretty smelly.

    We’ve been blessed with a mostly humidity-free June, but today was/is brutal in my book. It’s Lusaka-like in Boston. I just put my head in the office fridge’s freezer to cool off after a long walk through downtown Boston. While my head was in that freezer I was dreaming of a January cold front; an old-fashioned Montreal express. I know, I’m weird in this regard.

    1. Well, I must admit I am usually up on my Geography, however, I had never
      heard of Lusaka. You do mean Lusaka, the capital and largest city of Zambia?
      N’est-ce pa?

        1. During December through March it is. It is much drier
          the rest of the year. It has a Subtropical monsoon type climate (it is at altitude, 4,195 feet) where it is wet 1/2 the year and dry the other 1/2 or thereabout.

  23. Tiny little thing just south of franklin. Another itty bitty thing in CT/RI border

    Enough clouds out there though to squeeze something from

  24. And our Sox June swoon continues. Can’t entirely blame Price on this likely loss (they’re down 4-0 inthe 9th). It’s a slow and a bit painful descent to mediocrity. Could very well be at .500 by the All Star break.

    1. The convection makes it to about 20-30 miles SW of Boston and hits the wall.
      POOF! Not sure what the bleep it is?????

  27. JP Dave, Thanks for correcting me on Lusaka’s climate profile. Maybe a better simile for warm and humid would be Saigon? I believe the humidity is worse there, as is the heat index. But still, it really felt warm today on the streets of our beautiful city.

    1. Now you are cooking.

      Singapore has a tropical rainforest climate (Köppen: Af ) with no distinctive seasons, uniform temperature and pressure, high humidity, and abundant rainfall.

  28. Convection is REALY cooking now in Northern RI.

    Will it get’s its act together as it traverses the 30-40 miles to Boston? HA! probably not.

    1. That storm has tops to 18,000 feet with 1/2 hail.
      Wonder why it is warned? Warning criteria is 1 inch hail or winds of
      58 mph. On radar, doesn’t seem capable of that??????

      1. Well, they are saying 60mph winds. If so, then warning
        justified.

        AT 332 PM EDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
        WOONSOCKET… MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

        HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

        SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

        IMPACT…EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS…SIDING…AND TREES.

  31. IF they hold together, it’s going to be close whether they get Boston or not.
    Looking at track and going by my gut, it “appears” that they may slide ever so
    slightly South of the City. We shall see with some more track history.

  32. NWS playing games with the convective mode of the radar. Now they are used
    configuraiton 12. Yesterday it was 21.

    To get a better handle I looked at the radar on my mobile device.

    Northern storm seemed to jump to the North. Hmmm

  34. After that jog to the North, that Northern storm now appears to be on a bee line
    to Boston and does NOT appear to be weakening, not yet anyway.

  37. Yes some of the storms can be severe, but the individual cells are very short lived. Their ability to sustain themselves down there is marginal. The best support has just moved off the Maine Coast.

  38. Storm now “just” West and SW of rt 128, over Norwood and parts of Westwood.

    Can see the dark clouds now from here at the office.

      1. My “RADAR NOW” display from my smart phone is giving
        me a more detailed and up-to-date display than the NWS NExrad is.

        1. Does appear to be weakening ever so slightly. Still, looks
          like we WILL get some rain out it. I sure hope so anyway.

            1. Still catching a good chunk of the city,
              Roxbury, Dorchester, Southie and the South end and parts of the water front downtown.

    1. Nice.
      I don’t have a rain gauge, but I’ll bet my total was less the .1 inch for the day so far and probably will stay that way.

      1. You should get one. I have a Lacrosse Technology one that is wireless and very accurate. Was about 25 dollars.

        1. Perhaps I should. I have a birthday coming up.

          Just a question of where to put it.
          I am not touching the roof. Loads of trees around.

          I’ll have to think about it.

          thanks

  40. AHH, this storm is acting like the Red Sox.

    CHOKEORAMA!! I is DYING RAPIDLY NOW just when it is about to hit.

    Damn, I’ll still need to water tonight!!

    1. Check out the line of thunderstorms that stretches from south of Augusta, Maine, to Presque Isle. It is impressive and very long.

  48. The sun was out while raining here in Doechester. During this type of setup my grandmother would say that “the devil is beating his wife”. I have no idea who told her that but I still get a kick out of it. 😉

  50. Looks like I am in for another round in just a few minutes coming out of RI into Bristol County.

  51. Ok folks from n Attleboro to north shore…..we are supposed to share. Would you please try to share your storms in the future. Please and thank you 😉

    1. Most of the humidity was/is located inside 495 which fueled the storms which is likely why you were not in on the “action” Vicki. You can most certainly have all my storms anytime this summer…not that I had much to speak of. Most of the storms passed just north of the city of Boston. Not sure if Logan got in on it.

      😉

      1. Actually more specifically, the storms were essentially located along the 95 corridor. 😀

  52. I hope this doesn’t bother anyone but I have family here and golfing enthusiasts who will understand. Mac had asked that some of his ashes be scattered on a golf course. He didn’t tell us which one so we went for the gold. He will now be playing St Andrews every single day.

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