Monday Forecast

88 Comments

6:41AM

Happy Independence Day!

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 4-8)…
Fabulous Fourth! Today will be a top 10 summer day. But we’ve already had enough top tens that we probably need to change that to a top 25. Either way, a great day under the influence of high pressure. Disturbance coming at us tomorrow delivers some rain mainly to the far southern areas and maybe a pop up storm to a few other locations later in the day from the combination of heat and increased moisture. Heat arrives for midweek, and thunderstorm chances go up later in the week as a series of disturbances move through.
TODAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 60s. Wind light W shifting to S.
TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy through midday with a risk of rain and possible thunderstorms, especially far southern MA, CT, and RI. Partly cloudy mid to late afternoon with isolated late-day showers or thunderstorms possible. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of late-day showers or thunderstorms. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)…
Shower and thunderstorm threat at times as the jet stream will be nearby. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)…
Similar pattern continues with a couple hard-to-time disturbances bringing passing shower/thunderstorm threats, otherwise mainly dry weather with temperatures near to above normal.

88 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. Thank you TK. How about a top five weekend. Happy 4th to everyone. Happy birthday America. God bless you.

  5. Instability on 6z GFS Thursday through Saturday. Will see if anything develops. There is enough juice for thunderstorm development.

  6. Thanks SAK for those temp stats for July 1911. My bet is that the summer of 1911 was one if not the hottest in the 20th century. I would be curious on that…WOW!!!

    1. Glad you mentioned the numbers here. I went back to check them. Interesting in some cases Lowell was cooler than Boston. I forget when Boston moved to Logan for temps

    2. July 1911 is the 3rd warmest July on record for Lowell, behind 1955 and 1952.

      In terms of summer as a whole (June-August), 1911 was right around normal. The Top 5:

      1949 75.0
      1988 73.9
      1955 73.9
      1952 73.6
      1980 73.6

      129 year-average: 70.4

      1. Makes sense to me 1949 would be at top of list. It was a very good year 🙂

        I remember 1980. Newborns, HHH and no AC are not a great combination. I also remember 1988 well. Too young for the others to have cared

  8. Good morning. Thank you TK.
    Happy 4th of July.

    Regular NMA keeps rain to the South tomorrow, However, the 4KM NAM brings
    rain into the Boston area and somewhat North of the city to the tune of 1/2 inch.

    We shall see what the 12Z runs have to say.

  9. Will take whatever rain we could get.
    Thunderstorm chances late week into the weekend so at least a couple chances for rain. Will see if those thunderstorms late week into the weekend will be on the potent side or just garden variety.

  10. Thursday and Saturday are the main severe threats according to the GFS. I’ll believe it when I see it.

    6Z gfs particularly impressive for Saturday.

    Look at the CAPE

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016070406/132/sbcape.us_ne.png

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016070406/132/sbli.us_ne.png

    EHI

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016070406/132/sbli.us_ne.png

    Cross over

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016070406/132/crossover.us_ne.png

    Surface chart

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016070406/132/sfcwind_mslp.us_ne.png

  11. I saw your comment yesterday on the 12z EURO for this coming Saturday so will see.
    Were in the summer pattern finally with multiple chances this week of showers and storms.

    1. Once again, I’ll believe it when I see it.

      Tk says there will be chances, but timing this far out is next to impossible.

      IF that GFS set up is correct, watch out.

      1. It is start to my vacation so I figure TK is right. I do have to allow for the Mac factor but then he knows I love storms at the ocean so…….

  13. 12Z NAM sneaks tomorrow’s precip mostly just South of the Boston area to a line
    acron MA/CT, MA/RI border. Can’t make up its mind that’s for sure.

    Which boils down to the Euro being correct all along. 😀

        1. So you’re looking in from the Esplanade?
          Stake out a good spot?

          What’s up with the 4KM NAM?

  15. I’m intrigued by the severe weather potential later this week. Lots of time for working out details. Just general idea for now.

    1. Intrigued in what way. That is a rather vague statement.
      Possibilities, I suppose.

      Big time boomers? “possibly some rotators”? Big Hail?

      Your thoughts? C’mon don’t tease. What is your main concern.
      We WON’T hold you to it as it is a way out there still.

  16. TK I know its early but if you could give us preliminary thoughts that would be great?
    Does it have the potential to be a July 10, 1989 set up?

  18. Thanks again SAK for those additional stats above! 😀

    The fact that the 1911 summer overall was near normal, there must have been a number of very coolish days thrown in to counteract those awful hot days in July. I also wonder if those hot summers of 1952 and 1955 helped to fuel those infamous hurricanes Connie, Diane, Edna, etc. I would be curious if there really was a correlation.

    My grandmother told me over the years that Boston lost a lot of trees due to those hurricanes of the 1950s.

  19. 12Z GFS has Pretty potent severe parameters for Saturday. Worst just West of
    the Boston Area. We’ll see what the 12Z Euro has to say.

    EHI values off the charts (5.0) and the GFS is usually conservative with that parameter.

    We shall see.

  20. 82.4 with 51 DP and light wind. Not a cloud in the sky. I know there is no such thing as better than perfect but darned if today isn’t taking a run at it.

  21. FWIW, the Euro now brings precipitation up to the Boston area tomorrow, although
    amounts are light.

  24. 12Z Euro for Satuday, APRWX Tornado Index:

    I wish we had the 3 hourly increments for this. Given that, I would have to
    “assume” that the atmospheric conditions contributing to this index, must
    traverse Central & SNE to get from the 8AM postion to the 8PM position. Therefore, it would be my assumption that virtually the whole state of Massachusetts, particularly central and north and much of the Southern part of NNE would be under the gun.
    I further assume, that this is part of the reason TK is intrigued, but ONLY he can
    answer that for sure. 😀

    8AM

    http://imgur.com/3U5GoAK

    8PM

    http://imgur.com/bQhMMQZ

    A word on this proprietary Index from Andrew Revering who operates the EUROWX site:

    The APRWX Tornado Index is reliant on the APRWX Severe Index. It does this because it first has to assume severe weather is even going to happen. This is an “attempt” that I think is good because you constrain your tornado chances by areas that are first defined as having a severe threat. The Sig. Tor index does not do this.

    There are some 40 parameters that go into the APRWX Severe index, which is trying to put my conceptual method for forecasting severe weather into an index.

    THEN, once we have relied on the APRWX Severe Index to say… yes… severe weather is likely in this location, then the APRWX Tornado Index moves forward and looks at:

    CAPE
    6km Shear
    LCL Heights
    Storm Inflow
    1km Helicity
    VGP
    Shear available to tilt the updraft
    and any cold core parameters that may exist.

    I’m biased, but I think the APRWX Tornado Parameter is better, however it’s going to be much more picky about when it’s showing any tornado risks, and on those marginal or unexpected days it’s not going to perform well.

    1. Tk, we know you are enjoying the Esplanade, but in a down moment, perhaps
      you could comment on the above?

      SAK, you around and about today? Thanks

      1. Too much model error potential even with one of the best models for a day 5 event to try to detail things.

        The only thing meteorologically sound is to mention some severe weather potential later in the week. When it’s 3 days out, the fine tuning will begin.

        1. Was enjoying my 4th in the afternoon, and on shift this evening. Now that the 00z GFS is in, I think that both Thursday and Saturday need to be watched. While the GFS at 1st glance looks like Saturday might be a bigger threat, it also appears to be more dependent on the timing of the front.

          The NAM also looks pretty good for Thursday.

          I also wouldn’t be shocked if we see a few cells pop this afternoon.

  25. Getting ready to cook some delicious burgers for the 4th. Will be cutting up the lettuce, onions and tomatoes shortly. Yum yum yummy yum yum.

  26. Dew Point at Logan 3:00 pm obs. = 48F

    For this time of year this is incredible! 😀

    I have read over the years that July 4, 1776 was typical HHH and overall miserable.

    1. thankful for 48 dewpoint, however, with that blazing sun, the house is getting
      heated up. Just had to turn on an AC.

      1. Nice try by the C’s though. At least they went “all out” this time around getting Brady and Edelman to help. We do have Horford at least. 🙂

          1. Well, with Horford “what’s next” maybe the 2nd round of the playoffs perhaps? 😉 We will see one way or the other.

  28. Red Sox win again! Typical 2016 game…Rangers with 16 hits so what else is new? 😉

    With great hitting and crappy pitching these Sox games go a loooong time in spite of the new rules to move the game along…supposedly. 😀

    1. Fwiw, Eric says that Thursday is the most likely day for widespread severe storms and Saturday not so much.

        1. Interesting.

          Just discovered my comments are all awaiting moderation. Something corrupted my log in info. Error on my end and TK they were not important so just let them go so they don’t cause extra work

  30. A beautiful 4th of July evening in Brighton while waiting to watch the F-15 Eagles fly over my house on their way to the esplanade!

    1. Hmmm, they came in from a different direction this year 🙁 so they were too far away to really enjoy.

      1. We used to see them in framingham also. No idea of they flew over that way this year.

        Am enjoying the pops. Glad they paid tribute to Prince. But missed this land is your land as part of the medley 🙁

  31. Good morning. We have actual rain. Guess it has been so long since we have had a true rainy day that it feels so out of the norm.

  32. Good morning. Hope everyone had a happy 4th! .98″ of rain here in Wrentham so far today. Was shocked to see how much we’d gotten when I woke up, some of the models were hinting at a near shutout. Checking radar though looks like we were right in the sweet spot. Just the kind of rain we needed too, moderate intensity over several hours. Hopefully more later this week after a couple scorchers.

  33. Good morning.
    Nice to see the rain. We didn’t get as much as WxWatcher this far North, perhaps .2 to .4 inches. We watched Eric last night and he said the rain would basically stay South of the
    city. I told my wife that he was mistaken. I woke up to a pretty good drenching. I was pleased.

    I also too a quick look at the severe parameters for Thursday and Friday.
    What parameters?? I just hope we still manage some showers as we need the rain.
    Of course, things can still change, but what I am currently seeing, I AIN’T Impressed.

    Sox won 3 of 4 this weekend. Amazing considering the crappy pitching they
    are getting.

    Ready to see David Price’s arm fall off tonight?

  34. The front looks to be moving in quicker on Saturday with the 6z GFS run. There is instability there thunderstorms but at 21z (5pm) the instability is confined to eastern areas.

  35. Feels like when there is a snow storm on the weather models in winter. One time its there next time its gone

    1. Agree totally. The Euro gave us the big tease for Saturday. Who knows what
      it will do with the 12Z run?

  36. 6Z NAM has decent parameters for Thursday, not overly impressive, but decent.
    At least reasonable chances for Showers/thunderstorms for rain. Severe is
    possible, but I wouldn’t count on it.

    1. Euro parameters for Thursday are not much at all. A little, perhaps some
      shower/thunderstorm potential.

      Euro for Saturday is suppressed to the South. It has the low tracking too far South to get the Boston area into the good instability. IF that were to track a little farther to the North, then it could be trouble. Still some time on that one.

      Let’s see what the 12Z runs show.

  37. Recovering from my Boston day. What an awesome one. A few of you have seen pics I posted on FB. More to come, mainly of the fireworks. 🙂

    Updating blog now…

    1. Watched it all on TV. Was looking for you. You usually park yourself near
      the River, correct?

      It was an absolutely perfect day.

      1. Gee I wonder who took those photos? 😛

        You’ll never see us on TV unless they carry a camera down through the lagoon area. We are right on the river bank across from the fireworks barge every year. 🙂

  40. A couple of quizzes.

    1. The lowest temperature on Earth was recorded in the month of …
    A. January
    B. April
    C. July
    D. October

    2. How many consecutive 90-degree days make up Boston’s longest heat wave?
    A. 3
    B. 6
    C. 9
    D. 12

Comments are closed.