Tuesday Forecast

80 Comments

9:49AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 5-9)…
3 disturbances impact the region during this period. The first, today, has brought some rain across the region this morning but will be moving out by midday. Some lingering instability and moisture may be enough to pop a couple showers and thunderstorms in isolated locations this afternoon or early evening, but most areas will see vastly improved weather this afternoon. A great summer day is expected Wednesday, though compared to recent weather it may be a little hot and humid for some folks. The next disturbance arrives Thursday and increases the risk of showers and thunderstorms. Though I’m not expecting a widespread outbreak, it is possible that we may have to deal with some severe thunderstorms. The third system will arrive late Friday into Saturday with another shower/thunderstorm risk, but at this early stage I think that the timing of this system may not be optimal to maximize severe weather potential. It’s still too early for details on this system and there will be plenty of fine-tuning to do.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy with rain ending west to east late morning. Partly to mostly sunny this afternoon with isolated thunderstorms. More humid. Highs in the 80s except some upper 70s immediate shoreline. Wind light variable with light sea breezes near the coast.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s at the coast, lower 90s interior. Wind light W becoming variable with light sea breezes near the coast.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms afternoon and night. Humid. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s.
FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late-day and at night. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
SATURDAY: Mostly to partly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms in the morning. Isolated additional showers/thunderstorms later in the day. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s except some 70s South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 10-14)…
Dry and a little cooler July 10. Risk of showers July 11 along the border of cooler air in place and advancing hot air from the southwest, which will likely arrive during the middle to end of the period.

DAYS 10-15 (JULY 15-19)…
Heat eases early in the period then returns again later in the period. Limited shower/thunderstorm chances.

80 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. I was surprised by the amount of rain I got. Seemed to be a little further north than some thought. I got nearly half an inch.

    1. Did you look at any guidance yesterday? Perhaps you were busy and did not.
      Shouldn’t have been a surprise. 😀

  5. REPOST
    Longshot says:
    July 5, 2016 at 9:54 AM

    A couple of quizzes.

    1. The lowest temperature on Earth was recorded in the month of …
    A. January
    B. April
    C. July
    D. October

    2. How many consecutive 90-degree days make up Boston’s longest heat wave?
    A. 3
    B. 6
    C. 9
    D. 12

    1. Now I can answer again:

      C & C

      (I think I was still asleep when I answered previously and no I did not look it up)

  6. Thank you TK for the update.

    All guidance yesterday indicated that the rain would go farther North, however,
    the 0Z NAM kept it South, which of course did not happen. Pretty sad when a model
    can’t get it right less than 12 hours before an event. Wow!!

    Yesterday, prior to the 0Z NAM, the NAM, GFS, EURO and HRRR ALL had at least
    .2 inches for Boston and much more to the South. Go Figure.

  7. I was busy yesterday. My mother in law had surgery at the Brigham yesterday and I hadn’t looked at a thing since Sunday morning really.
    Wasn’t good 🙁

  8. Hmmm,
    What’s up with the 12Z NAM for Thursday.
    Most of the instability is SOUTH of the Boston Area.
    Almost looks like a Back Door Cold front drops through the area cutting off
    the instability and the heat????

      1. Temps near Boston for Thursday PM only in the 70s according to this particular run.

        Toasty on Wednesday, but not so for Thursday.

      2. Now, we wait for the other 12Z runs to see if the NAM is full of crap OR onto something for Thursday. 😀

        1. Given its performance in the last 24 hours, do you really want to place a bet on it? 😀

          1. What do you think? I have been really disappointed in the NAM lately. Waiting on the GFS and EURO.

            Frankly, I hope a BDF does drop down. 😀

  9. NWS re: Saturday

    Saturday…
    Surface front may get trapped south of New Eng with easterly flow.
    GFS is an outlier with front lifting to the north with SW flow.
    ECMWF, UKMET and GGEM all keep front to the south. This will result
    in cooler temps but remaining humid. Approaching mid level trof will
    likely bring another round of sct showers/t-storms. Deep layer shear
    increasing from the west as trof approaches so may have a severe
    weather risk in the interior.

    1. I think it’s too early for that kind of detail for Saturday. Too many variables.

      1. It is too early, isn’t it. Pretty detailed for an event 4 days into
        the future. Exhibit A: Look at what the 0Z NAM had for today’s event.

  10. 12z GFS for Thursday want to keep instability away from Boston area. So both the 12z runs of the American Models in agreement.

  11. 12Z GFS set up for Saturday is interesting.

    CAPE values not as high as expected and LI not as low.

    Cape up to about 1,500 joules and LI about -4.
    Certainly enough for thunderstorms, but no great shakes.

    Also, the low to the North appears to be in great shape for
    Thunderstorms here, so we shall see. Waiting on Euro.

  13. NAM is in and out of convective feedback issues, and no model seems to know what to want to do with a boundary that, depending on its location, can mean Boston can be anywhere from mid 70s with low overcast to mid 90s with HHH on Thursday.

    1. It’s a mere 2 days away. You would think that our sophisticated computer models would have a batter handle on this. 😀

      I am counting on a BDF. We need it as we have to travel to Harwichport
      on the Cape Thursday. IF it is HHH, my wife won’t make it and will have to cancel. As it is, we’re afraid tomorrow’s weather will do her in.

      Btw, Was just out. It is VERY HUMID out there, especially when compared to this weekend. Also, it has REMAINED cloudy, much longer than anticipated.
      I don’t even see any breaks yet. At 10 AM it looked like it was going to clear, and then it got socked in again. Even experienced some drizzle a short while ago.

      1. Low level moisture stuck right near the coast. We’re partly sunny in Woburn with blue breaks among lots of cumulus with cauliflower tops!

  16. Boston buoy water temperature: 61
    GEEZ it just doesn’t want to go up.

    That is pretty pathetic for July 5th.

      1. Yes, I realize that, but it’s still pathetic!

        Hey, I was in Atlantic City one August. Now at that time of year the ocean temperature is usually about 75-77 degrees. Well, while we were there, it was in the 90s air temp, but the ocean was
        58 Degrees. UP WELLING!

  17. Thanks, TK – and glad you had a great time last night.

    A muggy day today but there is a coolish breeze from the east – at least here in Sudbury. And we have more clouds than sun. Just went for a walk – it was nice. But if there were more sun; no breeze and this humidity – not so nice.

  18. The sun is out full blast here and you could feel the difference from this past weekend. We been spoiled and this is the first real stretch of humidity we have had to deal with so far.

  19. Looked at the Euro for both Thursday and Friday. Really close.
    Front is in the area and we could be on either side of it.

    Up in the air regarding instability. It depends upon which side we end up on.

    We could easily be on the North side both days.

    1. My son and his friend are being taken camping in Sturbridge Village for Friday night and Saturday night. They are leaving early Friday and coming back Sunday. Could be interesting. Thankfully they chose to have a cabin and did not go somewhere to tent camp…

        1. Awwww come on now. House I will be in starting saturday is on stilts. I somehow don’t think standing underneath them would be wise.

          1. Right, but Humarock won’t exactly be ground zero for sever, while on the other hand, Sturbridge
            could very well be.

  20. Feels like a coastal low that is so close to dumping us with a lot of snow in the winter. A small shift here in either direction will make a difference.

  21. Will see what happens with this. Tweet from Meteorologist Tyler Jankoski here in CT.
    Thoughts on this tweet.
    Elevated mixed layer still being modeled Friday p.m. as a cold front comes down from the north

  22. GFS has highs in the lower to middle 90s on Saturday around here.
    ECMWF has highs in the middle to upper 60s on Saturday around here.

    Just a slight disagreement there.

    1. And it can go either way.

      We know the ECMWF has a general overall handle better than the GFS the vast majority of the time, but it can still muck up the details when it comes to a local or regional area.

      Thursday-Saturday have the potential to carry some interesting weather for parts of the region, and I’m off all week and with no specific plans for Thursday through Sunday if something is happening that doesn’t come to where I am, I’m ready to go after it. 😛

      1. How about a WHW chase team? 😀

        I would think it is a 2 person job, period.

        Just kidding around.

        Guess what? Nothing is going to happen.

        1. I believe I have told you the story about the time SAK and I (and my fiance at that point in time before we were married) chased storms south of Boston, at rush hour which is never easy, on Tue May 21 1996 – the day of the Brockton/Whitman downburst. I believe the winds were either measured at or estimated at 104 MPH at one location. SAK can clarify if he has the info for this. It was the most extensive weather-related damage I have ever witnessed in person.

          1. Part of it I recall, but not all of what you just said.

            The most damage I ever witnessed in person, was in Falmouth after Hurricane Bob. Summer cottages leveled, some ripped from their foundation and tossed across an inlet. Trees down everywhere and homes damaged. It was unbelievable. And there we were, my wife and son walking among the ruins. I am amazed I was allowed to do so. I have an old 8mm video tape
            of all of that somewhere in the house.

            1. I didn’t see as much from Bob but saw a lot from Gloria. I think the most I have ever seen would be from either the perfect storm on south shore or one of the more recent winter storms on the south shore. Tom may be able to help me with that storm. Perfect storm seemed confined to coast but was horrific. The winter storm was both coast and inland. Both of course in Marshfield/Scituate area.

          2. May 21, 1996, the day my wrong guess probably saved us.

            We were heading down the Expressway and as we neared the Braintree split, we could see the cell to the SW. TK was driving and asked which way we should go. Since I had just moved out of Brockton 6 months earlier, I said to head down Route 3 to 18, and not down 24 because “storms never hit Brockton”. Once we got into Abington, we saw the damage from the storm that we missed by mere minutes. Had we gone down 24 and into Brockton, there’s a decent chance that we’d have been under that storm.

            As for Hurricane Bob – I spent that entire storm in the Weather Lab at ULowell with a fellow student (Gary Gray). The entire weekend was spent updating the University’s weather phone line and doing updates on WLLH radio. On the day the storm hit, I was on the radio live every half hour giving updates.

            I also have a time-lapse video filmed that day of the tide/storm surge taken in Padanaram Village in New Bedford.

            Hurricane Bob is a special storm to me – even though I was only a sophomore at Lowell, it was truly my first experience as a meteorologist. I once gave a talk about it for it’s 10 anniversary. The talk was given at the Blue Hill Observatory. Afterwards, I remember going to the top of the observatory and looking out at the beautiful evening – crystal clear skies thanks to high pressure building in. That was on September 10, 2001. You all know what happened next.

  23. I hope I see some interesting weather here in that time period you mentioned TK.
    Let the weather be boring starting next Tuesday through Sunday when I am away on vacation.

    1. Could we wait until I have moved into house at Humarock on Saturday before everything falls apart. And then maybe a fun storm or two for the following two weeks?

  24. 18Z NAM shows NO SEA BREEZE for tomorrow and consequently a toasty day.
    YUCK! Temps above 90 for sure, how high above is anyone’s guess. NAM says lower
    90s. We shall see.

  26. A question on twitter for Eric Fisher regards to Saturday and his response.
    If approaching trough arrives at the right time we could see svr wx on Saturday?

    The front on Saturday is a warm front…we could end up seeing some strong to svr storms along it. Tough call on instability

    1. They are horrendous. I thought things would be fine when they turned to moths but arghhhhh

    2. Same here. The defoliation caused is even having a meteorological impact in spots. Last night’s discussion out of Taunton noted this. Shocking it could come to that level, but makes perfect sense of course, as the lack of greenery makes it easier to heat up the land and that combined with the dryness will add a degree or two to the temperatures throughout the summer in places where the caterpillars were the worst.

      1. I imagine the winter moths were bad in the areas where they are found also. Along 146 out here the trees are bare in many spots. We only had one tree in our yard with them but the tin foil seems to have helped.

  30. So this is going to be a very interesting set-up when it comes down to details, but I have a feeling of how it may play out, and this is it as of now…

    Hot tomorrow, but more humid in the morning than the afternoon as we mix some drier air down from a few thousand feet above the ground. Feeble sea breezes keep it in the 80s at the beach but 90+ just about everywhere else.

    I see enough evidence that the wind turns east from Maine through NH and most of eastern MA, and southeast to south from Cape Cod through the RI/CT coastal areas to run with this idea. The temperature contrast may be as great as 20 degrees from the coast of NH and northeastern MA to the interior of central MA and CT, ranging from the middle 70s to the middle 90s. We’ll have to watch for t-storms along the boundary but they may never really kick off as the best support from the west may take its time getting here. Nevertheless will have to be on the lookout for some kind of thunderstorm activity with the general setup of heat over the interior and energy around.

    Friday, we probably get back into the warm/muggy stuff during the day with isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms as a few weak disturbances traverse the region.

    Then the big key to the forecast is what happens after that. It looks like the boundary wants to slip south again and put most of the region back on the “cool” side late Friday night and into Saturday. But does the boundary lift north again to allow the wedge of warm to hot air into at least part of the region and fuel some big boomers? The upper air pattern is classic for severe t-storms, but the surface may not cooperate. Of course, from a general standpoint, the best case scenario would be beneficial rain without severe weather.

    On Sunday, we may be unstable yet again, enough for some pop up showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, as a trough swings through, but it will be less humid regardless.

    Could get real hot for a few days later next week…

    1. I haven’t thought too much about winter 2016-2017 lately. The initial comments I had about it were based on long term regimes.

      We’ll see where it goes as we head through the fall. Some of the monthlies of late have trending milder for the early part of winter, but those things are to be taken not-too-seriously. They are more suggestions of possible outcome than a swaying tool. Much is to be learned before we can even improve those forecasts.

  32. So while TK and SAK are chasing the storms and JP Dave and Vicki are dancing with excitement – if anyone needs me I will be hiding under the bed in our basement.

    1. Tom will be doing the same :). Seems we have some interesting (is that the correct term) pairs!!

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