Thursday Forecast

195 Comments

8:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 7-11)…
Still turning the tuning knobs on this forecast but not a whole lot of change from the last post, with the issue regarding temperatures being the location of a boundary separating the hotter air mass that was over us Wednesday and a cooler marine layer of air that has pushed into southeastern NH and northeastern to east central MA during the early morning hours. I expected this boundary to waver around but slowly sink south to southwest overall through Friday, then try to make a run northeastward again Friday night and Saturday. I’m still leaning toward the idea of the boundary of warm air falling short of making it back across the entire region on Saturday, leaving areas north and east cooler. As for shower/thunderstorm chances, they exist today favoring areas near and to the warm side of the boundary, which will be east central MA and southwestern NH southward. Activity should be pushed further south tonight into Friday before making a northeastward return Friday night into Saturday. Another area of showers/storms should sweep eastward later Saturday along a cold front as the strongest low pressure area tracks north of New England. But an upper level trough still traversing the region Sunday with cooler air aloft may still trigger a few instability showers and thunderstorms. Finally by Monday, low pressure moving away and high pressure moving in should provide a dry, mild, and breezy day. I have not mentioned severe weather up to this point, regarding the thunderstorm chances, mainly because I think any severe storms would be of the isolated variety, rather than a larger scale organized outbreak as may have occurred had the warmer/muggy air stayed in more of the region for a longer time, but with contrast and instability around, I cannot rule out a few strong to severe storms.
TODAY: Clouds dominate but areas of sunshine especially interior east central to south central MA into adjacent RI/CT for a while. Sunniest area stand the greatest chance of showers/thunderstorms developing early to mid afternoon which will think sink southward. Storms may produce gusty winds, torrential rain, and hail. Elsewhere, lower risk but still isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms possible. Highs range from the upper 60s seacoast of NH and eastern MA to the upper 80s in areas that are still sunny as of 8AM with a fairly sharp contrast between. Wind mostly E up to 10 MPH, but variable over some interior areas, except briefly strong/gusty near any storms.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few showers/thunderstorms possible. Areas of fog especially South Coast and Cape Cod. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind light E to NE.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible. Highs upper 60s eastern coastal areas, 70s elsewhere. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)…
Dry weather July 12-14 with a slow build of heat/humidity. Shower/thunderstorm risk increases as it continues humid later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)…
Dry and a little cooler early in the period then heating up again with isolated showers/thunderstorms later in the period.

195 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you for the update TK.

    71.8 here. Feels nice as I sit next to the window and can feel a breeze on me.

    Most Sb CAPE remains South of Boston according to all models I viewed, however, there is a fair amount of elevated Cape up to and a bit North of Boston.

    Do any storms make it to Boston? Most simulated radars keep Boston mostly dry with
    most Activity to the West of the City. Pretty much what was depicted yesterday.

    I’ll believe it IF/WHEN I see it. 😀

    To answer Vicki’s question, Mrs. OS was OK yesterday as thankfully the dew points
    didn’t get to the extreme, plus we had the house sufficiently cooled from the night before and 2 ACs running. She had a rough time the day before, Tuesday, when it was less hot but worse humidity-wise.

    Headed to Harwichport a littler later. Meeting friends for dinner and cards.
    Yes, I guess that is what old people do. 😀

    Hopefully, it doesn’t heat up and moisten up too much.

    Just jumped to 72 here. Not sure there is an East wind here.

    8Am NorthEast wind at Logan and only 65 there.

    Will be watching radars all morning.

    1. I don’t know about old people doing that. I used to love meeting friends for dinner and cards when younger. One friend, his parents and I would literally stay up all night playing cards. I do miss a good game of bridge!

      Enjoy OS and I’m happy to hear Mrs. OS is feeling improved and that the ACs are in place and doing their job!

  6. Thanks TK.
    NWS out of Taunton with a special weather statement highlighting the heavy rain potential and the possibility of an isolated severe storm with strong winds.
    Atmosphere is loaded with moisture with this humidity.

  7. Thank you, TK.

    Filtered/hazy sun here. 76.1 with 70 DP and very light N wind. All info from wunder as I am too lazy to get up and check my station 🙂

  8. From SPC for Saturday.
    PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND…
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
    COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/RELATED
    UNCERTAINTY ON THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH WEAKENING
    LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS PRECLUDES OUTLINING A SEVERE RISK AREA
    WITH THIS OUTLOOK. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
    STRONGER STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON

  9. With the threat of some rainfall between today and Saturday, this is a great time to throw down the lawn grub control. I’ve already seen some of the beetles out and about and they’re getting ready to lay their eggs.

        1. Agree. And to add to the drought, the dog seems to have the ability to leave a literal crater every time he goes to the bathroom. What amazes me is directly surrounding the crater is the richest green grass we have. I think we need to figure what causes that and market it.

    1. Well you are firmly in that area. I cannot tell where I am but suspect right on the line. Thank you, JJ!

  12. With the latest 12Z HRRR, it brings Sb CAPE of 2,000 to 3,000 joules up to Boston
    at the 21Z hour. We shall see.

    http://atlas.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/12/NE/HRRRNE_con_sbcape_009.png

    One other thought as I was looking over the charts.

    It looks like the possibility of an enhanced convergence Zone just back from the coast
    where a E wind Meets up with a S wind. Could that possibly generate some extra
    lift?

    http://atlas.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/12/NE/HRRRNE_con_stp_010.png

  14. Vicki your area is in the 40% chance for thunderstorms according to the SPC between 4pm – 8pm and your close to the 40% chance between noon – 4pm.

  15. Thank you, TK.

    As summer rolls along, my gut feeling (not based on science or meteorology, though some trend analysis plays a role) tells me that on the whole it will not be a hot one. Going back to early spring, the long-range projections have just not materialized in terms of a warm spring or hot summer. To highlight, in late March / early April the talk was of warmth and heat coming in May. Did not happen. In May the talk was of warmth and heat coming in June. Except for a couple of days in June, we pretty much had an average month in terms of temperature and not much heat at all. In June, the talk turned to heat (specifically, above average temps) coming in July and August. Still possible, certainly. But with the exception of a few hot and humid days it doesn’t appear to be the overall trend.

    1. It sure feels that way, doesn’t it? A couple of hot weeks later in July will
      douse those feelings. WE shall see. I hope we stay away from HHH weather.

      1. 3-H is not my cup of tea, either. This said, the weather does what it does, and will never please everyone.

  18. JP Dave, what’s striking to me is the lack of heat along the Eastern Seaboard. For example, I’ve been following DC’s temperature profile and it just doesn’t look like a typical DC summer. Some heat to be sure, but very few searingly hot days.

  19. Anyone of that feeling that the winter will be a warm and wet one?? as we been sort of cool and dry now

    1. I do not get the feeling it will be wet. Jury’s out on overall temps. As for being cool, June was close to average and ran warmer than normal much of the month, so cool is not necessarily the rule. We’ve just had no sustained heat yet.

        1. As much as I love weather, I fully believe in “if it’s not broke, don’t fix it” That said, we could add some rain but the temps and DP and whatever else we can toss into the bucket have been amazing.

  21. Sitting at my desk by the open window with no shirt on, I got a chill and had
    to put a shirt on. Was a tad over 74, now has dropped back to 73.8.
    Still partly to at times mostly cloudy, but there are periods of sunshine.

    Does anyone know iF there is fog on the cape? I see some at P-town, but not at hyannis.

  22. I guess I chose the right beach day when I went to Hampton yesterday…

    I have actually be watching on their web cam this morning live as they bulldoze the sand sculptures. 😉

  23. Tweet from NWS Taunton Skywarn. I have a feeling heavy rainfall is the big ticket item here and not a severe weather threat.
    Here is there tweet.
    SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will start at Noon for isolated to scattered strong to svr tstorm

    1. Additionally, it was foggy at skaket beach in Orleans about an hour ago, but it has lifted to low clouds.

  25. If we had more wind shear today in the atmosphere this could have been a more interesting day.

  27. Quick look at 12z NAM tomorrow good CAPE CT western areas of MA.
    Saturday no instability in SNE.

  28. First cell has popped in RI. Anywhere from between Westfield/Springfield eastward to Metro West and southward has the chance of some activity in the next few hours. Less chance north until late day-evening. More on that later…

  29. Dew points are up there so an atmosphere loaded with moisture where those storms fire.

  30. 11 AM at the airport: 67

    Dropped to 72.5 here.

    Was just out and there is a bit of chill in the air. 😀

  31. I’m going to make a prediction:

    Boston does NOT see a freaking DROP OF RAIN today. NOT a single drop. 😀

  32. You could tell on the 12z American model runs where a back door cold front is tomorrow.

  33. Storms popping west of me in Hudson River Valley of NY with special weather statements with these storms.

  37. Dave had a brief shower the sun came out. Now its getting dark and starting to rain again. Its is quite muggy to say the least.

  38. Juicy cell sitting just West of Providence, RI,
    Been kicking around for a while. Must be putting down crap loads of rain.

    1. Looks like that area is in a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. It’s warming up here in S.NH and N.MA, 78* in Chelmsford with a DP of 63*. Hope things get juicier!

      1. There is nothing to cut here.
        Chill in the air, believe it or not.
        Temperature here a sweltering 73.9

        1. Absolutely amazing, isn’t it and what makes weather so fascinating and anything but an exact science. Well, except for here where we have TK 🙂 And on the hour reports from some of the best bloggers!

  43. First warned storm of the day.
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    NORTHEASTERN KENT COUNTY IN RHODE ISLAND…
    SOUTHERN PROVIDENCE COUNTY IN RHODE ISLAND…

    * UNTIL 215 PM EDT

    * AT 116 PM EDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
    SCITUATE…OR NEAR JOHNSTON…MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

    HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

    SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

    IMPACT…HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
    TO ROOFS…SIDING…AND TREES

      1. There is a flood warning out now with that storm.

        Did someone already say that? If so, I apologize.

        1. No they didn’t, however a while back I said that it must be laying down craploads of rain. 😀

  45. I am hearing rumbles of thunder in the distance.
    Flash Flood Warning where that severe storm is in the Providence area. No surprise with the slow motion of the storm. I would not be surprised if more of these flash flood warnings get issued.

      1. Things really are happening as expected so far. I still have people wondering where all the storms are. The problem with believing one icon on one weather app strikes again…

        1. Aren’t the people just plain silly. This is quintessential New England summer weather….here but not there!

  46. 80 degrees here at Storm HQ World Headquarters with a light NE breeze. Still feels humid, but not as bad as when I got home at 3:30am. Without having looked at any regional obs yet, I’m guessing that backdoor is stalled out somewhere fairly close to here, likely just south given my wind direction.

      1. I believe it is somewhere within the city limits of Brockton, MA, the city of champions. 😀

      2. The Storm HQ World Headquarters Compound is in a secure location on the northern slope of Cary Hill, in the City of Champions, very close to where it borders both Abington and Holbrook.

      2. Looks like Barry was off by 30 degrees from his forecast 2 days ago. A bdf will do that!

        1. A little early to be proclaiming that. I’ve seen plenty of times where Boston has an East wind and stays in the 60s/low 70s all day then then flips to West at 5 or 6pm and spikes 20 degrees.

          And for the record, Boston’s high so far today is 81, at midnight.

        2. This is not a knock on Barry, but what he did was go with the idea of the 2m air temp forecast from ECMWF a few days ago which was forecasting a 102 for Boston. In thinking the model had the right idea, he went for the heat and scaled it back based on the error he thought was most likely.

  47. Vicki special weather statement issued for my area. This storm appears to be moving at least unlike the one in the Providence area.
    A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LITCHFIELD
    COUNTY…

    AT 150 PM EDT…STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR NEW
    PRESTON…OR NEAR NEW MILFORD…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

    WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

    LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    TORRINGTON…NEW MILFORD…CANTON…THOMASTON…NEW HARTFORD…
    LITCHFIELD…NEW HARTFORD CENTER…WINSTED…TERRYVILLE…
    NORTHWEST HARWINTON…NEW PRESTON…WOODBURY CENTER…WATERTOWN…
    PLYMOUTH…HARWINTON…BARKHAMSTED…BETHLEHEM…WASHINGTON…
    GOSHEN AND MORRIS.

    TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM…AND MAY CAUSE
    LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
    ROADWAYS

  48. There is lightning with the storm. So will see if I get into the action or miss out on it.

  49. Storm is right over me. Just saw a flash of lightning getting breezy rain is picking up.

  50. The sun is now out pretty decently here, but the temperature has not yet responded, if even it will.

    still 73.9 here.

  51. Has anyone noticed that there are a ton of moths out during the day? They are all over Waltham and Newton.

    2. They’re everywhere. Look for and kill the large white ones. Those are the females and will lay thousands of eggs.

  53. We have easily hundreds of moths. I think south of here and this area is among worst. They are moving up to MA feom RI

  55. 2nd severe warned storm of the day in SNE. This one a slow mover moving northeast 15mph.
    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    SOUTHWESTERN NORFOLK COUNTY IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS…
    SOUTHEASTERN WORCESTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS…
    SOUTHWESTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS…

    * UNTIL 415 PM EDT

    * AT 316 PM EDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DOUGLAS…OR
    11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MILFORD…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

    HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

    SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

    IMPACT…HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
    TO ROOFS…SIDING…AND TREES

    1. Warned a tad too late. That was intense.

      I got videos but they didn’t do it justice. The wunder stations in this area were not showing wind speed so I suspect it was above what they could record. The person’s flag pole across the street snapped right in half.

      1. Very difficult to warn on some of these storms as they are very slow movers with unpredictable movements

        1. I think it would have been impossible as it seemed to materialize out of nowhere and then just boom.

        1. Thanks, North. I don’t know how to get it from FB to here. Although it truly did not do justice to the storm

  56. Just had a crack of thunder that was loud enough to be a gunshot in house. Had to have hit very close.

    I notice some clouds moving opposite direction of others. I always find that fascinating

  57. I just got the warning but the storm is still far away and not really moving in any particular direction. They should put out a general watch to put folks on alert that a severe one could pop up anywhere

  58. There was a special weather statement on that storm. Last part of the statement was the storm may intensify and get warned. Well now we have a warning.

    1. It intensified. Over me. Is 39th anniversary of Macs and my first date. Thanks Maccer!!

    1. Thanks. Definitely quiet here in Punta Cana with that Saharan dust coming across the Atlantic.

  60. Sun is out where I am but I am may not be through seeing storms yet. Looks like another line is forming to my west. Just a special weather statement and no warning but last part of the statement these storms could intensify.

  61. Just a short commentary…

    I don’t always mention media but name when criticizing but I’m going to call out Fox Boston for misleading headlines…again.

    “Severe storms across our area.” Sounds a little overdone, don’t you think? Sure if you were under a good storm with a downpour and lots of lightning for a while it was pretty nasty, but there have been TWO severe thunderstorm warnings so far and they were marginal. There was no need for a watch today. Yet this headline is written in a way that makes it sound like a widespread outbreak. Unnecessary and misleading, and yet ANOTHER example of what is wrong with media.

    Big thumbs down to Fox on that one.

  63. As SAK noted above, Boston did register a high of 81 today in the midnight hour, but during the daylight hours it’s been no higher than 67 with the east wind and in the marine layer.

  64. JR admitted on air that the back door front came through Boston 6-8 hours earlier than forecast.

      1. TK, I feel like they are always earlier than expected. Is that true. I feel so so of them models underestimate the timing quite often.

        1. Often, but not always. I’ve seen them hang up and come later. It depends on the particular situation.

          1. Thanks. Seems like the water provides less resistance and they move faster done the coast.

  65. We received 0.46 rain with that not that driving rain helps a whole lot but better than nothing.

  66. Vicki there was a warning in southwestern CT.
    Getting dark out my window and it looks like another round of showers and storms coming my way.

  67. I got doored about 3 pm. I was at 85.5 and within 20 minutes, I hit 73. Dew point is still going strong at 68. I’ve been at work in Cambridge all day and it’s been pretty cool most of the day. It’s about 69 right now with a slight breeze.

  68. So far Vicki the first round the rain was heavier that was accompanied by lightning.
    This should do it for today in my area. Will see tomorrow if anything fires up.

  69. JP Dave, I think u may be right about no rain in Boston. Anything that approaches 495 instantly dries up.

  72. Aaannnndddddd I’m on vacation for 17 days. I haven’t had a vacation in 2+ years although I wouldn’t have traded the time I had in those years for anything in the world. It’ll be bittersweet but darned of Mac didn’t make his presence well known in two very odd ways today.

  73. Checking the SPC website three reports of wind from storms across SNE. One in CT, one in RI and one in MA.

    1. I was in at the NWS today; we were glad to receive those reports, as both of the severe t-storm warnings the office issued were verified. Not easy to do with the pulse type storms that happened today. Days like today are about as frustrating as they come for near term forecasting.

  74. Forecast to me was on target. There were isolated severe storms across SNE but mostly it was a heavy rain threat.

  75. Vicki here are the three wind reports today. Location list first with county next to it.
    SCITUATE PROVIDENCE RI 4180 7162 TREE DOWN ON RTE 12 AND SEVEN MILE ROAD

    UPTON WORCESTER MA 4217 7161 TREE DOWN ON WIRES LOCKING ROAD ON ELM STREET

    BRIDGEPORT FAIRFIELD CT 4119 7320 DOWNED TREE LIMB OVER POWER LINES AT HILL TOP ROAD AND SAILORS LANE

    1. Hey JJ. Thank you VERY much. Upton would have been cell we had. I’m figuring what kind or wind it takes to snap a flag pole. That of course wouldn’t qualify as wind damage but it was strong so I’m surprised there were not more reports of damage

  76. Your welcome Vicki.
    This is the first severe weather report we have had in CT this warm weather season. We had a bunch of them with that severe weather outbreak we had back in February when those storms came through during the night. Those were good storms with gusty winds and the lights were flickering in my home.

  77. Back in Marshfield, so my older daughter can sail in the morning.

    The temp and dewpoint difference over 20 miles is amazing. It is miserably tropical where we’re camping, but nice and cool and foggy in Marshfield.

    Glad to see the front is supposed to keep moving inland tomorrow. It’s not fun to camp in oppressive humidity.

  78. Enjoy your vacation time Vicki. 😀

    So JPDave, looks like you win the rain vs. no-rain forecast. Unless the most random shower pops up in the next 2 1/2 hours, Boston’s getting nothing tonight.

    1. Thank you, TK. Good news is the house we rent has Internet for the first time so I’ll be here…..well internet is the good news. Not sure my being here is good news for all 🙂

  79. Looking more and more like the cool solution will be what we end up with on Saturday.

      1. Whoa. Pete B has a washout and 64 Saturday. That ain’t no Mac factor…..unless it stops raining long enough to unpack car that is.

  81. Back from the CAPE.. NADA
    Only a touch of fog here and there. Was 75, 76 most of the way down, 70 at the canal and then 83 in Harwich and humid as hell. Go Figure.

  82. Looking for suggestions on what to advise a friend to expect for temps Boston and points near the coast on Saturday and Sunday. He will be visiting from Minneapolis. Should he pack a rain jacket and umbrella and anticipate 60s Saturday and 70s Sunday?

    Currently 63 and gloomy in the Wollaston Beach area of Quincy

  83. Had a hard time sleeping last night in spite of the weather which is conducive to a good night’s rest. The gun violence in this country revolts me. Whether it’s on the TV shows – and we do glorify and romanticize violence in our shows inn a way that’s deplorable – or in reality. Whether it’s our military adventures, most of which have exacerbated violence. Whether it’s police officers being shot, or police officers doing the shooting. Whether it’s deranged individuals with AR-15s or similar weapons of local destruction and hundreds of bullets to wipe out a night club, a theater, a school, a church. Time for talking is over as far as I’m concerned. It is time to address the core problem – too many guns in the hands of too many aggressive people. I’ve lived in different countries where the people are no different from here. They’re just as prone to get angry in the UK and Holland as they are here. But, because they don’t have easy access to guns there is MUCH, MUCH less senseless killing. Having a murder rate that is 10 to 30 times higher than any other industrialization nation is morally repugnant and unacceptable. Having police officers kill 1000 people every year is insanity. This is not a sermon about the 2nd amendment (which is the right to bear arms, which does NOT specify what kind of arms). If people want to get licenses to carry hunting rifles or even a handgun, fine. But, no-one should be allowed to own and operate (semi) automatic weapons or be able to purchase unnecessarily large amounts of ammunition. In sum, I hate guns beyond imagination. I hate violence of any kind. I hate our (U.S.) complacency when it comes to gun violence. I hold our representatives accountable. They’re partly to blame for our moral depravity.

    1. Joshua, did you get inside my head and my wife’s head. I AGREE with you 100%!
      Perfectly stated. ENOUGH!########!!!!

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