Saturday Forecast

53 Comments

8:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 9-13)…
Complex but fairly weak low pressure will take the next 2 more days to squeeze itself mainly south of New England, keeping the WHW forecast area on the cool and damp side of if. As I mentioned in the previous update, this is mixed news depending on how you look at it, good news because it prevents severe weather and delivers at least some needed rain, but not as good news because it does not look like as widespread and beneficial a rainfall as many systems like this can produce, and also it makes it a poor weekend for many outdoor activities such as the beach. Though there will be scattered showers around mainly during this morning, much of the afternoon and early evening will turn out rain-free, and then later tonight into Sunday morning will come the greatest chance of showers overall. Additional showers are possible through later Sunday too as colder air comes in aloft and adds some instability to the atmosphere overall. As we enter the new week Monday, vast improvement will be noted, however some lingering moisture in the lower levels and cool air above will allow the development of some fair-weather clouds after any initial leftover cloudiness from the weekend system pulls away early. High pressure will build over the region both at the surface and aloft, resulting in a sunnier and warmer Tuesday. This process will continue Wednesday, which will be a little hotter and slightly more humid.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light showers and drizzle mainly this morning. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Better chance of showers coming late at night. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Lows from the lower to middle 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs from the upper 60s coast to 70s elsewhere. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs in the 80s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s except cooler Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 14-18)…
A couple days of more classic summer heat expected July 14-15 and as a weakening cold front approaches and tries to push into the region, isolated thunderstorms are possible late in the day of July 14 and a few scattered thunderstorms may occur the afternoon of July 15. Weekend of July 16-17 currently looks mainly dry and quite warm. A few showers/storms may return by the end of the period July 18.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 19-23)…
A couple episodes of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms in an otherwise mainly rain-free pattern. Temperatures above normal.

53 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. CPC once again has removed the “above normal” from this area in their longer range precipitation forecasts. They have a thing about re-inserting it for some reason even though it would serve them better to leave it out of most of their forecasts and keep it dry. This has been the ongoing regime for the area as a whole, one we’ve been sticking with, and quite accurately I might add, for some time, and will continue to do this for some time to come.

    It’s important to note, however, that even in this there are exceptions. Nantucket Island has been quite wet this month so far and is running considerably wetter than normal. This just shows you the local variation that can occur, even within an area that is largely described with an alternate condition – dryness in this case. We often broadbrush and think that’s it, it’s this way for all, but there are almost always at least a few exceptions. That’s weather.

      1. Being surrounded by ocean will do that. Martha’s Vineyard is a little too tucked in to be influenced that significantly.

  3. Looking out there a bit…

    Still seeing decent signs of a heatwave of 3 to possibly 4 days for SOME, not all, locations Wednesday-Saturday. So far I don’t think it has the power to sustain all the way through next Sunday, but that’s a little way off so will re-evaluate this going forward. The least likely areas to see an official heatwave would of course be coastal areas, especially the South Coast of New England.

    Also getting some hints (pattern hints, not just climate-guessing) of possible big heat in the Midwest and East, including New England, later in July and possibly beyond…

  4. Thanks TK. Disappointing that even in an unsettled short term pattern which is uncharacteristic of the longer term pattern, we still can’t get much rain. Missed opportunity. Back to warm and dry next week. What we really need is a tropical system. I think we’ll have opportunities later this summer, but likely not for over a month.

    1. Conditions in the long term don’t look good for storm development, at least in the classic areas, so even with a good chance that our pattern may turn to a configuration that would bring one up this way…there may not be very many opportunities to do just that.

  5. Thank you TK…..does cooler at cape Wednesday mean it might be cooler on south shore also? Or just cape?

    Sounds as if once I get unpacked it’ll be great beach walking weather today. Tomorrow I’ll get to read and listen to the waves. Works for me 🙂

    1. South Shore, possibly, but it would not be to the degree of Cape Cod most likely. The final word will be the strength of the gradient and the ability to get a true sea breeze going.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Very disappointed in the rainfall early this morning. Was expecting a bit more than
    a pavement dampening.

    Let us see how the overnight rain expectation disappoints as well.

    Reading the NWS discussion, one would think an ARC is necessary. 😀

    HA I seriously doubt that.

    My landscaper never showed, so I had to cut the lawn myself yesterday. What a pain.
    Looks nice, though. 😀 May have to water during the day today, being that is is cloudy and I won’t be able to this evening.

    1. I was not expecting any more than a pavement dampening in most areas. This system is not going to produce much over the 3-day period. Only isolated areas may end up with borderline beneficial amounts by sometime tomorrow, but the area as a whole will benefit very little, or not at all.

      1. Just hoping for more is all. Thank you.

        I guess I’ll just have to keep laying on the water.

  8. There is more rain out there to our West, but it “appears” to be slipping to
    the North as per usual.

    We need a collective WHW RAIN DANCE!

    1. 0.10-0.50 inch overnight and Sunday morning is about all most of us will manage. There may be isolated heavier amounts, but the key word here is “isolated”.

  9. As much as i hate cloudy damp days, this weather is perfect for fishing, i always have good luck catching nice bass at a cloudy day.
    Tk do you think moving forward we will have a good pattern for thunderstorms? It seems a bit slow this season and dissappinting. I know it’s still early in the season but i am hoping to get some good thunderstorms. It seems like you have to be really lucky to get a good thunderstorm, everything is really isolated

    1. That has been the pattern. As we go forward, there will be increased chances of more organized thunderstorm events. We’ll be building a ridge in a large part of the US with heat, but keeping the jet stream not all that far to the north. That interaction is key, because we can’t always rely on air mass storms up here, as a place like Florida can.

  10. Out in Newton running errands. Drizzle has broken out. Car thermometer reading 63 degrees. GEEZ!!

        1. Having a great time. Watching a thunderstorm that just moved off of Purto Rico and moving this way 🙂

    1. 60-68 at all other MA reporting stations so you win the cold spot award. 😛

  13. I am not complaining with these temps today.
    I will see plenty of 3 H weather when I leave for vacation to Virginia next Tuesday.

    1. Not complaining here either. Wearing sweats but I always like sweats at ocean. Kind of like being all cuddled up

      House has ocean on one side and river on the other. Ocean side has about a 17-20 mph ENE wind and I last s bit then head for river side where wind is blocked by house. Win win.

  14. If I may ….I had a hard time driving in. Just as I drove by Macs favorite house which already had me in tears, Kevin Kerns song “I’m always right here”
    Came on the radio. Every code on the modem that went in yesterday is all numerical except three letters in a row. MAC

    1. Vicki I really feel for you. I hope you find comfort in knowing these things show that he will never leave your side.

        1. He will always be with you :). You and he were partners in everything and he is glad you made it back to your happy vacation spot.

      2. I received a phonecall from my Mom the other night about my 69 years young Aunt/godmother. She had a bad fall while visiting Florida in January and has been in bad shape since. They sent her up here in May and my Moms call was to say she is on hospice care and have her on morphine. I was really upset, but was comforted by something later that evening. While watching TV I saw a light outside and thought it was a plane. My wife came in and said nope that is a firefly. It was flying along by itself and right up to the window for several minutes. Never seen that before in my life. Thought you would appreciate the story. It was comforting.

        1. I love the story and fully believe that firefly was a sign truly meant to comfort you and let you know she is in good hands. Thank you for sharing. Your godmother/aunt is very young. I will keep you and her and your family in my prayers. I am also sending big hugs

  15. Some thunder and a bit of lighting up here in Andover. Rain just starting. Just does not feel right outside with a storm on approach with marine air. Special weather statement issued also for pea size hail and wind to 30 mph. See what tonight brings….

  20. High today at Logan = 65F (normal low)

    I am curious as to the record low maximum for this date.

  22. The marine layer was very shallow. I mentioned this on a previous blog that this layer would be only 100 to 200 feet thick. Once the better dynamics finally arrived, the thunderstorms hung on a little longer and further east, with everything occurring above the marine layer, which the atmosphere treated as cool ground rather than deeper cool/stable air.

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