Sunday Forecast

90 Comments

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 10-14)…
No big changes today. One more day for low pressure to finish its jelly-like squeeze across and just south of New England with upper levels cooling a bit and allowing a few more showers to pop up today. A hint of lingering trough Monday and some leftover low level moisture will allow for some clouds to pop up and possibly produce an isolated shower, but looking at a mainly dry day on Monday. Then true summer weather makes a run into the region Tuesday through Thursday as high pressure builds surface and aloft through Wednesday, then relaxes a little to the south as a weakening frontal boundary approaches the region by Thursday, possibly resulting in a few thunderstorms.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs from the upper 60s coast to 70s elsewhere. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a few isolated showers. Highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs in the 80s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 80s to middle 90s except cooler Cape Cod.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Isolated late-day thunderstorms. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the upper 80s to middle 90s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)…
Very warm to hot and humid with isolated to scattered thunderstorms as weakening cold front pushes through the region during July 15.
Weekend of July 16-17 currently looks mainly dry and quite warm. Hot and more humid with isolated thunderstorms July 18-19.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)…
A couple episodes of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms in an otherwise mainly rain-free pattern.

90 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK
    A much different day than it was 27 years ago on this date when there were multiple tornadoes across the Northeast including one that came through my area around 5pm that day. I was 5 years old at the time and it was the first big weather event in my life. I was home with my mom at the time and was scared. Thankfully there was no damage done to the house but a tree did come down in the front yard which thankfully missed the house. This was my mom’s second tornado she lived through and hopefully none of us will ever experience another one in our lives.
    Here is a link on that day. To me this is the benchmark when it comes to severe weather outbreaks in the northeast.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Northeastern_United_States_tornado_outbreak

    1. Thank you for your memories and that nice link. Pretty scary for a 5 year old.

      The closest I came was the Brookline, MA tornado sometime in 1972.
      I was working downtown Boston at the time and was riding my bike home.
      I had come down Newbury Street And came up to the Mass Ave intersection, when looking ahead I see this appendage below the clouds. I moved up to the
      railing along the bridge over the MA Pike for a good look and I could see it
      violently spinning. Yes, sir re, it was a TORNADO. Pretty awesome looking.
      I watched for several minutes as it finally spun back up into the clouds and was gone.

      Here is one damage photo from Brookline.

      https://c.o0bg.com/rf/image_960w/Boston/2011-2020/2014/08/13/BostonGlobe.com/Special/Images/tornado015-2403%5B1%5D.jpg

      Btw, it downed trees in the Chestnut Hill section of Newton as well.
      A person was killed at the Longwood Criket Club.

      1. A little closer and you might have been doing your best Mrs. Gulch impression. 😛

        1. I wasn’t worried where I was, that’s for sure. I was feet away from a subway station which If I am not mistaken would have provided pretty decent protection, no? 😀

          My wife was at her sister’s house on the other side of Newton, near the Watertown line. When I got home, I had to drive over there to get her. I drove right through the damage Path on Hammond Pond Parkway. I could see the downed trees.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Had “some” rain overnight, but not much. I’d say a tenth or 2.

      1. yup, I remember that was your prediction. Driving home last night, we ran through 1 downpour in Westwood near the Canton and Norwood line, but it was short-lived and not very extensive.

  4. According to weather.com I have an 80% chance of thunderstorms here today in the Dominican Republic. Let’s see what happens. Completely sunny right now and satellite looks like the disturbance has already passed by and the next one wouldn’t get here until overnight or Monday. So far weather.com is batting a 0 for me here this week.

        1. I do believe that weather.com IS the weather channel.
          And, I just checked. YUP! Weather.com IS, indeed, the
          Weather channel, at least their logo is on the top of the website. 😀

          1. Big thumbs down for them. Based on looking the past few days, my 80% chance will become 30% on there by noon. 🙂

  5. We are finally going on our family vacation this summer. Last year we couldn’t because we were expecting our third is August. We are camping at Saco Campground in North Conway. The weather on Accubid shows perfect vacation / camping weather with highs in to 80’s and lows in the 50’s. Only two chances of a shower or tstorm on Friday and Tuesday. Hopefully that holds!

        1. Yes. Never been here before. It is beautiful but hotter than we felt the past few years in Jamaica. My wife is never complaining about heat and she wants to come back to the ac in the room often. Usually we don’t feel any hotter than at home.

            1. Thanks! We are back Tuesday. Mrs. North hates flying, so those parts of the trip are always fun :). She is now nervous that the nonstop here yesterday ended up being diverted mid-flight to JFK after being off of the Del Marva coast heading south. On FlightAware.com I saw that there were a couple 500 ft drops prior to the diversion, so not sure if those were the cause and if that was planned and maybe an injury or two? Can’t find anything else on the internet or news.

              1. Frightening.
                My wife and I were on a flight home from Bermuda once.
                We experienced one of those drops, followed by a rise and yet another drop. My wife screamed out for all to hear: “We’re Going Down!”
                I know what it was, Clear Air Turbulence and I was not concerned about the plane going down, but rather when I was going heave my guts out!
                The plane smoothed out and it
                was an uneventful rest of the flight.

                On the other hand, I don’t think my wife has gotten over that some 30 years later.

                2. Last year we had an air pocket as soon as we took off and my wife let out a little scream and the whole plane laughed.

  6. Thank you, TK. In Bend, OR where I am visiting my son. The idea of the “high desert” is so cool to me. I plan to learn about about it while I am here.

  8. North, re: heat
    Not in the slightest. We are worried.

    Took one AC out because it is too damn cold. Will have to re-install probably Tueaday.

    1. I don’t like the heat either. My wife doesn’t mind it and grew up with no AC, so she can tolerate a lot more than I can.

  9. NWS for Friday. We shall see. I will be away and miss this action should it happen.
    Will have to watch Fri for potential severe weather as cold front
    and shortwave move into the region. Models showing CAPES near 2000
    J/kg with increasing deep layer shear as mid level trof approaches.
    Could be an active day.

      1. A lot of negative factors that have been present recently will no longer be present.

  10. OS, as I suspected my thunderstorm chances went from 80 to 50%. Lol. Not a cloud in the sky so I am suspecting that by mid-afternoon that drops to 20%.

  12. For Friday quick peak GFS looks to move in at a time where the atmosphere can’t fully destabilize. Some CAPE for thunderstorms though.
    Good CAPE the GFS is showing for Thursday where I will be vacationing in Virginia but bulk shear values not at all impressive.

  13. Careful about comparing upcoming weather to recent weather.

    A different animal is about to enter the cage.

  14. It sounds the setup Friday intrigues you TK and are we getting into a pattern where these thunderstorms could get a little more feisty than what we have seen so far?

  16. From my perspective, yesterday put 2009 to shame. Quite chilly (almost November-like) but better than HHH.

    As for the upcoming HHH, is it around now for days/weeks on end TK? 🙁

    1. This isn’t even remotely close to 2009. Not even in the same league. That went on for nearly 2 months. We just came through one of the best stretches of weather we’ve ever had in June and early July and dropped into a few days of very cool air and somewhat cloudy/damp weather, and coming out of this a stretch of genuine summer is on the doorstep.

    2. The difference between this weather and November is the trees and vegetation are fully leafed (except where insects have defoliated) and the sunrise/sunset is before 5AM and after 8PM versus after 7AM and before 4:30PM. 😀

        1. That should have said “6AM” not “5AM”. In my haste to get the info out, an error was made. 😀

  18. Let’s do a little perspective thing…
    Weather like this is NOT that unusual in the middle of summer. How many record low temps have we set in the last few days? And are we making up the rainfall deficit? Hardly. It’s just cool/damp. It’s a layer of marine air that usually sits out over the maritimes and is ready to be pulled into parts of New England any time the synoptic set-up is just so. Yes, we go long stretches sometimes without seeing it, but these episodes are entirely normal. Just because a high temp at Boston is some 15 to 20 degrees under the normal for the date, it can be just as far above in the right pattern. How do you think these average temps are determined? This is just a great example of the variability of weather in a region that sits near the ocean, near mountains, and is in the temperate climate zone. We’re in it folks. This is part of the region where the weather changes the most. There is nothing new, unusual, or crazy going on. I remember many days of weather like this in the days my family rented a cottage at Hampton Beach when I was little. My parents always had a plan for when the weather was not great for the beach. That’s when we’d hop in the car and explore the nearby towns, gift shops, restaurants, or just go for a scenic ride up the foggy coastline. This is just part of the beauty of the place we live in.

  19. Additional info on 2009 vs 2016 will show you they are nothing alike…

    Just looking at Boston, we have this:

    June 2009
    -17 days never reached 70
    -1 day failed to reach 60
    -80 or greater on only 2 days
    -Rain fell on 22 out of 30 days
    -Temp averaged nearly 5F below normal
    -16 mainly overcast days
    -Rain was about 3 1/4 inches, which is a bit wet, but it seemed worse because it rained on so many days

    June 2016
    -Only 4 days stayed below 70
    -Temp averaged 0.7F above normal
    -Only 5 mostly cloudy days
    -Precip almost 2 1/2 inches below normal
    -Only 7 days with measurable rainfall
    -One of the sunniest months in recent history

    As far as July goes, it’s obviously too early to make a solid comparison between 2009 and 2016, but what we do know for Boston is this:

    July 2009
    -18 days with rain reported
    -6 days stayed below 70
    -Temps only about 1F below normal but no 90 degree days
    -Above average amount of cloudy days

    July 2016 (so far)
    -We’re on the 3rd day of high temps in the 60s but this followed a stretch of above normal temperatures to start the month overall with daily highs for the first 7 days of 86 80 84 88 76 94 and 79
    -About 1/2 inch of rain so far for the first 9 days and into day 10 keeping them on a below normal pace and with little rain in the forecast for the coming several days.
    -Temps will go further above normal from a hot stretch mid to late week.

    2009 vs 2016?
    Nothing alike here folks.

  20. All the long range models show above average temperatures through the fall , and also show warm through the winter months as well, except the CFC long range showing average to cool temps after a very warm fall.

    1. CFC has shifted around a little with inconsistency. I’m not sure I trust it all that much.

      The overall mild regime is probably the theme through at least mid autumn and then returns after a brief break late autumn / early winter.

  22. Bit of a typo in the discussion from Taunton.
    some head advisories may be required, especially
    on Thu.

    I am assuming they mean heat advisories. Never heard of a head advisory.

    2. The funny thing is that “head” is a hydrology term they use once in a while. 😉

  23. LOL!!!
    In the discussions it is highlighting Thurs and Fri with the potential for severe storms.

    1. Really just meant as a heads-up for meteorologists that those days are 2 to monitor for possible severe storms. It’s perfectly fine in the context of the forecast discussion.

    2. Yes, I do remember that you said that and I also DO REMEMBER 1988!!!

      HOT, HOT and HOTTER still!!!!!!!

      1. I remember it also. Didn’t have AC. I’ve said here before that we have a photo of Mac in a very tiny kiddie pool with the three kids.

  26. Re: head comment.

    Actually, what I read into that was that there may have to be forecast
    headlines necessary in the coming days. 😀

  28. Vicki, welcome to the South Shore !!

    We had a thunderstorm pass around 15 miles south of the Campground Saturday night, but the light amount of rain we saw came a few hours later.

    1. Thank you South Shore Tom. I’m hoping some of us can get together while I’m here. Maybe some from afar also.

      Glad it was no more at campground.

  29. TK did you see my question re timing of heat in link you posted. It says 7/25. Is that when we can expect

    1. That’s just one of the days of peak heights.

      I see heat Wed-Fri of this week, much of next week, much of the week after, and potentially much of August.

        1. Thanks TK. It is summer after all. Will be more comfortable if it decides to wait till we are home. Eight months pregnant and excessive heat would be nicer with AC. Not me BTW 😉 But then has been glorious so far so no place for complaints

    1. 00z GFS has a washout next Saturday. Not sure I buy that either.

      Of course, the 00z ECMWF is also fairly wet next Saturday, so maybe there’s something to that. In my Weekly Outlook, I went for a decent day, but mentioned that possibility that at least 1 model didn’t agree.

      As long as next Sunday evening is good, that’s all I care about. Heading to Great Woods with an old friend/neighbor that I haven’t seen in 25 years to see Duran Duran. (She and I were both huge DD fans in high school).

      1. I’ll be at that show too. Way back on the “lawn” though. Cheap tickets! 🙂

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