Monday Forecast

54 Comments

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 11-15)…
Lingering low level moisture and departing upper level low pressure will bring lots of clouds to start the day, then clouds/sun for the mid part of the day, then finally drier air pushes in later with more sun. The remainder of the period will feature more typical July weather as high pressure builds in through Wednesday, then relaxes to the south as a broad but flat trough pushes eastward across eastern Canada and sends a weakening front into the Northeast at the end of the week, increasing the risk of showers and thunderstorms somewhat.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny morning. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny afternoon. Highs from the middle 70s coast to lower 80s interior valley areas. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from the middle 50s interior valleys to lower 60s urban areas. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 80s to middle 90s except cooler Cape Cod.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Isolated late-day thunderstorms. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the upper 80s to middle 90s.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Humid. Scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Lows from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 16-20)…
A few showers may linger for part of July 16 then dry and warm for the remainder of the weekend through July 17. Very warm to hot, more humid pattern again with isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms otherwise mainly dry weather July 18-20.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 21-25)…
A couple episodes of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms in an otherwise mainly rain-free pattern. Temperatures above normal.

54 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  8. Overall was a great weekend. Barely any rain on Saturday during day. And minimal drizzle and good amount of sun allowing tons of beach time. Cloudy this am but dry Allowing tea on deck. Now that we figured out Internet I have my music system set up.

    TK I do not put a ton of stock in Wunder or any weather source other than whw but Humarock Wunder does give area specific info. I noted that the temps here this week are predicted to be mid to high 80s which is in line with your forecast. They also give wind direction and speed. It seems this week that there will be a fairly moderate wind (10-15) from mostly the SSW then shifting more to E NE next week.

    1. It (the wunder forecast) doesn’t sound too bad. The SSW winds would be in response to being within the ridge this week and the ENE winds would be around a few days next week as the next ridge starts to build in. Potential for some warmer ocean water late in the weekend or early next week when we see those seabreezes. In spite of the hot weather later this week, water may be cooler due to upwelling.

      1. Thanks Tom. I like to pay attention to air temp but also wind direction and speed when air temp gets higher. Nice natural AC. kids have been darting in and out of waves this weekend and didn’t seem to mind temps. The ocean was busy though. It is much quieter today

  9. Good morning TK and thank you for the update.

    Only had time to take a brief look at the GFS and the Euro for Friday.

    It’s only Monday, so there is time, but there is NOTHING remotely impressive
    with ANY of the severe parameters for Friday, so if there is any activity, it would
    “appear” right now that it would be garden variety. As long as it lays down some
    rain, that would be a very good thing.

    Oh and btw, I looked at the 10 Day EURO total precipitation chart. YIKES
    about 0.20 inch for Boston during that entire period. Pretty damn DRY.

    Of course, it doesn’t mean that the Euro is correct. One decent thunderstorm could
    wipe out that forecast in a hurry.

    NWS does not have any confidence at this point regarding Friday convection potential. For now, they think conditions pass through the area too early in the
    day to tap maximum Diurnal heating necessary for good convection with this set up.

    Here is what they had to say:

    Fri…Upper short wave trof and associated surface front crosses the
    region. Timing is critical with regard to convective potential.
    Model consensus for now would seem to have the frontal boundary
    making it to the coast by midday or early afternoon, too soon to tap
    into diurnal heating. However, Friday is still 5 days away and so
    cannot be all that confident on timing details. There looks to be
    sufficient bulk shear to support organized storms if the instability
    is sufficient. Expect max temperatures to be a few degrees lower
    than Thursday due to increased cloudiness. Nevertheless, many
    locations are expected to reach into the lower 90s with dewpoints in
    the upper 60s to near 70.

  11. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sachs_Harbour

    Sachs Harbour current temp : 67F. (Mind you, it’s probably around 7 or 8 AM !!!! )

    Did I mention the latitude of Sachs Harbour is 72N or roughly 5.5N of the Arctic Circle.

    Boston, MA current temp : 65F.

    The amount of warmth advected into the Northwest Territories and this part of the arctic the last few days has been amazing.

    1. I am happy you are enjoying it and like the high desert so much.

      For me personally, having visited Las Vegas frequently in the past, I have
      seen as much desert as I would ever want to see in a lifetime. It is just so
      different. I don’t like it at all. 😀

    2. Thank you MassBay. You are in an area I have always wanted to visit

      So happy you are having such a great trip

  13. Just looking at the 12Z NAM.

    Robust severe parameters Thursday PM, just to the West of NE, primarily in Eastern
    New York.

    Next thing I noticed was temperatures for Tuesday-Thursday.
    NAM has a significant SOUTHERLY component to the wind, thus limiting
    high temperatures. Has about 86 on Tues, 88 on Wed and 83 or 84 on Thurs.

    Wonder what the GFS will show? More Westerly component? Who knows, BUT
    I for one, am ROOTING for the SOUTH wind. Sure it will be humid, but I’d rather
    have 85 and humid rather than 95 and humid.

    We shall see how it plays out.

  14. 12z NAM for Thursday gets some instability into SNE. Exception eastern areas.
    It really cooks up the instability where I will be in Virginia for Thursday.

  15. Looking at the pivotal site for the 12z NAM Albany, NY area looks to be the bullesye here in the Northeast for Thursday.

  16. 12z GFS looks pretty similar to the NAM for Thursday. Some instability makes it into SNE with the exception of eastern areas. Just over the MA and CT boarder in Hudson River Valley of NY and Albany, NY area some very impressive instability.

        1. 🙂

          I have an awesome app called Marine Traffic. It shows me boats and ships off shore and info about them including course

  18. To echo others, SUN is out here as well and it has warmed up nicely.
    Feels HOT compared to the weather this weekend, even though it isn’t all
    that hot. Car thermometer was reading 74.

  19. Looking at the rest of the GFS, it looks like the front will pass through
    the Boston area sometime around 11 AM or so, thus limiting convection.
    predicted rain for Boston is less than 1/10 of an inch. A bit more to the South
    of the City.

    Waiting on the Euro which is now coming out.

    btw, GFS has a dew point of 76 for Boston Friday morning. YIKES!!!

    Imagine if everything came through during maximum heating?
    AND there is still time for this to slow down and/or speed up. 😀

  20. On Thursday there is some pretty good instability on both the 12z American Model runs just west of SNE.

  21. 12Z Euro hints at a slight slower frontal passage than the GFS. By Friday it is showing
    12 hour increments on the charts so it jumps from 12z to 0Z. Show considerabl CAPE
    SW of Boston at 12Z and Just East of Boston at 0Z, which tells me that the boston
    area gets into decent cape sometime around Noon to 3 or 4 PM.

    We shall see.

  22. Thanks for the update TK. I notice your high temp ranges on Wed-Fri leave open the possibility of the heatwave you spoke about over the weekend. Are u still thinking this will happen in many locales?

    2. I agree, would like to know his thoughts. Inconsistencies with the Euro vs NAM & GFS.

      Euro says only the Merrimack Valley gets the heat wave, while GFS & NAM
      give none of us a heat wave. Go figure.

      I guess, we’ll get what we get. I am rooting for NO HEAT WAVE!

    3. NWS at 4:03PM

      Wednesday through Friday…

      High pressure offshore with a developing southwest flow over the
      region. This will bring in increasing dew points through the period.
      Temperatures aloft also increase with 850-equivilent temps 16-17C
      Wednesday increasing to 18-20C Thursday and Friday. Airmass also
      becomes increasingly unstable each day with LIs near zero in the CT
      Valley Wednesday but with limited cloud moisture, then sub-zero LIs
      across much of the area Thursday and at least part of Friday. Based
      on this, expect hot temps during this period with max temps either
      side of 90 Wednesday, and 90-95 Thursday and Friday.

  24. Hmmm, 18Z NAM shows CAPE actually INCREASES overnight and spreading Eastward
    across MA. What does this mean for sensible weather here? What is the timing of the front? and pre-frontal trough?

    1. NAM performs very poorly at that range. It’ll change around a bunch of times between now and then. 18z NAM performs even more poorly than 00z or 12z.

  25. Looks like a heat wave is comin… Just in time for my trip to the cape this Wednesday

    1. I think the Cape will be in the 70s most of the time, maybe a few lower 80s Friday.

      1. Even bay side? Does that reflect on south shore coastal temps also. I know I asked prior. Just wondering now that we are closer

  26. Fun with observations.
    Example #1: Alice, Texas.
    1 of 3 things is happening this evening:

    1. A hurricane is nearby.
    2. A wicked backdoor front just went through.
    3. The wind sensor on the ASOS is failing.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?wfo=fgz&sid=KALI&num=72

    Example #2: Clyde River, Nunavut, Canada

    It’s a beautiful Monday evening on the shores of Baffin Bay, in the town of 934. Despite 24-hours of sunshine, the last few hours have featured temperatures dropping to near 30 degrees, and visibility of 1/4 mile or less in heavy snow and freezing rain.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?wfo=fgz&sid=CYCY&num=72

    1. We spend so much time trying to figure out what we think is going to happen, sometimes it’s fun to just look around at some of the things that ARE happening. Cool stuff!

      1. Agree. Spent time on FB posting what is happening.

        Especially now that I am guaranteed a temp this week by North

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