Tuesday Forecast

69 Comments

7:04AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 12-16)…
High pressure takes control of the region today then gradually settles to the south of New England during midweek as a broad but low amplitude low pressure trough moves swiftly eastward across Canada through late week. The resultant weather here will be building heat and eventually humidity, then a risk of showers and thunderstorms, mainly isolated later Thursday and scattered during Friday. The timing and coverage of the Friday activity is very much uncertain at this point, as I think there will be one pre-frontal trough nearby earlier in the day and then a cold front moves into the region later in the day or at night. This front will settle just south of the region Saturday with mainly dry weather returning along with lowering humidity.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80 Cape Cod, 80-85 most areas, 85-90 interior valleys. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 77-82 Cape Cod, 83-88 other shores, 88-93 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms possible late day and early night. Humid. Lows 65-72. Highs 77-85 Cape Cod and immediate shores, 86-94 elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms possible afternoon and night. Humid. Lows 66-73. Highs 77-85 Cape Cod and immediate shores, 86-94 elsewhere.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 17-21)…
High pressure will hold off a passing low pressure wave south of New England on July 17 with fair and warm weather but not too humid. Humidity increases July 18-20 and the risk of showers/thunderstorms returns July 19-20 before subsiding July 21.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 22-26)…
Limited shower/thunderstorm chances early in the period may increase a bit later. Temperatures above normal.

69 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

    2. I’m going to guess it either dies out or redevelops itself in a slightly different direction. Best of luck!

      1. I am hoping that is what happens. My wife hates flying and that would not be good departure weather 🙂

      1. Thanks all. TK, it is weakening some. I can only get the long range reflectivity Puerto Rico radar here.

    1. Trying to tighten it up a bit while covering more area, if that makes sense. 😉

  3. The 00z EURO projects a small 600 dm contour on an impressive looking 500 mb central USA ridge at 240 hrs.

  5. Keeping my fingers crossed that rain stays away for Sunday. The TV mets have it quite wet…relatively speaking.

    Are you fairly confident at this time on that miss TK?

  9. Good morning and thank you for the update TK.

    I cannot for the life of me get a consistent temperature forecast for the next several days.
    one model keeps it in the 80s with no 90s until just Friday, while others keep 90s Wed,Thu and Fri. Every radio station and every TV met has different numbers.

    Regardless of what the temps are Wed and Thu, my fear is that Friday might be a
    SCORCHER.

    The trough passes through Early Fri or perhaps even late Thurs night, BUT the front
    doesn’t pass until later on Friday. There will be plenty of mixing and plenty of
    sunshine. We could exceed 95. We shall see.

    1. I meant to say other than TK. His numbers appear to be the most realistic and he gives range to allow for any fluctuations.

  15. Wunder says 74. Feels Warmer. We have thought temp seemed higher than wunder listed

    DP 65. Light 6 mph S wind that is ever so slightly west

    Perfect day

  18. 12Z NAM says ONLY Friday makes it into the 90s.
    I HOPE that it is correct. I doubt it, but I sure hope so. 😀

    11AM, Logan 82 with dew point of 55. AHHHH NICE!

    Vicki, for reference. 11AM

    Marshfield
    temp: 82
    Dew: 59

    Plymouth:
    temp: 81
    Dew: 57

    1. Thanks Dave. I think it is the wind right at the ocean. I am convinced it is at lease five degrees warmer on non wind side of house.

  19. Interesting.

    12Z NAM and 12Z 4KM NAM aren’t even close to each other.

    regular NAM wants to bring precip in over night tomorrow into Thursday, while
    the 4KM NAM has a nice line setting up to the West of NE on Thursday, destined
    to come through here very late Thu into Friday sometime.

    Will be interesting to see how the Euro handles it.

    Btw, 4KM NAM has it as being quite potent. We shall see. I am NOT holding my
    breath, that’s for sure.

  20. 12Z GFS keeps the Sunday system South of the area on Suday.
    Also brings at least 97 degrees on Friday with 97 both at 2PM and 5PM, therefore,
    possible it could go higher than than.

    Waiting on Euro

    1. Wow (97F) …..

      Also projects significant heat later in the month …… (Of course, it’s been doing that for a while.)

      Puts New England under the eastern side of a 594 dm ridge in the long range with a 600dm contour in PA.

      1. True, but did you watch closely, it then retrogrades and allows
        cooling air masses to slide over the ridge from Canada down over the Northeast. That would be saving grace. 😀

        2. I wonder if that would allow for some periodic decent thunderstorm activity? Probably so.

      2. Tk said it was going to be a hot summer way back when with many 90″s days . It’s about to start so buckle up and get ready for an old fashioned summer hot & dry.

  22. 12Z Euro beginning to look interesting from late thursday through about 2PM on Friday.
    There could be action anytime during that period.

    Has Boston in slight chance of Severe for Friday and SE MA in a Moderate chance, depending on exact timing.

    If timing is right there is much surface to 850MB shear and helicity.
    Even has SE MA in a moderate risk of tornadoes.

    Certainly something to watch.

      1. A word on the APRWX tornado index from Andrew Revering,
        developer and owner of eurowx.com

        (Note: I posted this once before, but just in case you didn’t see this. So this parameter is NOT from the EURO itself but rather a proprietary index created by Andrew Revering and/or his staff.
        He thinks it is good, but he is biased.)

        The APRWX Tornado Index is reliant on the APRWX Severe Index. It does this because it first has to assume severe weather is even going to happen. This is an “attempt” that I think is good because you constrain your tornado chances by areas that are first defined as having a severe threat. The Sig. Tor index does not do this.

        There are some 40 parameters that go into the APRWX Severe index, which is trying to put my conceptual method for forecasting severe weather into an index.

        THEN, once we have relied on the APRWX Severe Index to say… yes… severe weather is likely in this location, then the APRWX Tornado Index moves forward and looks at:

        CAPE
        6km Shear
        LCL Heights
        Storm Inflow
        1km Helicity
        VGP
        Shear available to tilt the updraft
        and any cold core parameters that may exist.

        I’m biased, but I think the APRWX Tornado Parameter is better, however it’s going to be much more picky about when it’s showing any tornado risks, and on those marginal or unexpected days it’s not going to perform well.

  23. I’m sure TK won’t mind this ad, as he usually attends this as well, but the agenda for the 2016 Southern New England Weather Conference is now available. (Note – I’m on the conference planning committee and run the website for it). We’re having the conference in Rhode Island this year, and it will take place on Saturday October 29. If you’re interested, all the details can be found right here: http://www.sneweatherconf.org/

    Registration will likely open in late July or early August.

    1. I’ve advertised it here myself. Love the promotion for this great event! October 29 is a date I can make and RI is just fine with me. 😀

      1. TF Green is a piece of cake to reach. Zip down 95 and you are there. I can’t tell you how many times I have passed the airport
        exit on my way to Foxwoods. 😀 :D:D

    2. Thank you SAK. Awesome information.

      I may try to attend for the first time this year. It will depend on a number
      of factors, but sounds like fun.

      One recent year, it was held at my old office across the street from
      Big Blue. I am afraid I would not have been welcomed in that building. 😀

      1. You’ll enjoy it, and get to say hi in person to many of the folks you have seen on TV or write those discussions you like to take to task. 😉

        I’ll be there for sure.

  25. Not saying it will happen, but 18Z NAM gives us some convection both on Thursday
    and Friday.

  27. Thanks SAK for the SNE Wx Conference info! Good to see that Walter Drag is still alive and well. If the conference ever comes to Boston, I may consider attending. 🙂

    Also, who’s photo is in the insert on the 2016 home page? Just curious.

    1. The photo is John Spillane, the keynote speaker of the day. If you’ve seen the movie “The Perfect Storm”, then you’ve seen his story. He was one of the USAF para-rescuemen on the helicopter that had to ditch. He survived the night at sea in the middle of the storm.

  28. As of 5:00 pm obs. Logan dp = 51F

    Nice!!! 😀

    Btw, Eric has Sunday totally dry (and HOT)!!!

  29. Thanks for the conference link SAK, and I echo what you and TK have said: Highly worth attending. Looking forward to it.

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