Thursday Forecast

89 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 14-18)…
Typical July pattern. Today is going to be a humid one with a southerly to southwesterly wind and an approaching trough. A few scattered showers and possible thunderstorms will be around during the day but most of the time will be rain-free. A strong line of showers/thunderstorms will enter western New England at the end of the day but likely weaken considerably as it tracks to the east this evening. Some moderate to strong storms may survive the trip at least part-way so it will be something to monitor. Friday’s atmosphere will be hotter and only very slightly less humid but also less supportive for thunderstorm activity, with only a few possible around Cape Cod. A cold front will come through without much fanfare at night and take the edge off the humidity a bit further for the weekend. A disturbance will pass south of the region and may bring some high level cloudiness at times to southern areas but any wet weather will not reach the region. Humidity makes a come back by Monday as does the risk of showers and thunderstorms as winds turn southwest again.
TODAY: Partly sunny and hazy. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms. Very humid. Highs 77-84 Cape Cod and immediate shores, 85-91 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH at times.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy and hazy. Showers/thunderstorms moving eastward across the region before 11PM but weakening with time overall. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 79-86 Cape Cod and immediate shores, 87-95 elsewhere.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 65-73. Highs 82-90, cooler Cape Cod.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 62-70. Highs 84-92, cooler Cape Cod.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms especially late-day. More humid. Lows 64-72. Highs 85-93, cooler Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 19-23)…
Sluggish cold front leaves a bit of heat and humidity and the risk of a shower or thunderstorm in the region July 19 before drier and a little less warm July 20. Warm to hot, more humidity, but limited chances of showers/thunderstorms July 21-23.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 24-28)…
Above normal temperatures, drier than average but still some risk of a few showers/thunderstorms at times.

89 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  6. Thank you TK!

    Coastal…I just donated on your wife’s page. In 2008 my son was also med flighted in respiratory distress due to RSV. He was originally sent to Boston Medical and later in the evening was transferred to Children’s. He spent a month at Children’s and the care we received was simply amazing and they are the reason he is still with us today. Please extend a thank you to your wife for taking part in this fundraising event. Best of luck to her.

    1. Sorry Coastal….also meant to say that I wish the best for Gracie-Jo! She sure is a cutie!!!

        1. That is a tough virus for the little ones. Sam actually had to be revived at South Shore Medical before heading to Jordan and then Boston. He aspirated because of the RSV. It was simply awful.

          1. They were able to revive her at home before transporting her to south shore then to children’s. I’m glad our guys made it through this!

            2. Amen Coastal. I will tell you that Sam had his struggles for a couple of years after he got sick but now he is 8 years old and strong as an ox and healthy as can be. We so very rarely make a sick visit to his doctor. Prayers for the same with Gracie-Jo.

                1. Coastal we send hugs and love. You are in all of our prayers. The grandkids are supporting Ryan since nana finally could get to the link…..with help from Sue 🙂

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I want to mention the 6Z 4km NAM. I KNOW it is a 6Z run, but it has the boston
    area getting croaked by vicious storms around 1 or 2 PM tomorrow with dew points in
    low 70s. Apparently, this one particular model slows the front down enough to ve
    very active in Eastern sections tomorrow.

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM4KM/06/NE/NAM4KMNE_prec_radar_036.png

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM4KM/06/NE/NAM4KMNE_sfc_dewp_035.png

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM4KM/06/NE/NAM4KMNE_con_mucape_035.png

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM4KM/06/NE/NAM4KMNE_con_scp_035.png

    I have not looked at the other models.

    Can you comment on this? Is the 4KM NAM out to lunch on this?

    Many thanks

        1. One day its’ the model of choice and the next day it’s trash.
          Not very reliable models, are they?????

  10. I was surprised the SPC had it as less than 2% chance for tornado today in the first outlook before the update.
    From Taunton
    This environment will favor wind damage from bows/line segments
    and possibly a tornado given rapid increase in low level helicity
    between 21z and 00z and low LCLs

  12. This from SPC
    DAMAGING WINDS BEING
    THE PRIMARY THREAT. THAT SAID…SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO
    OCCUR…AND SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
    NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

  13. Will this HHH be the pattern for the rest of the Summer? Thanks TK for all the great information you have been providing us, outstanding!

  14. Dewpoint up to 70F at Logan and other southern New England locations. In the low 70s in Connecticut.

      1. Hopefully. I think there may be quite a divide in the dewpoints/humidity somewhere in central New England.

        May be tough to get a push of dry air Boston to Providence, points south and east.

  15. 12Z 4KM very similar to 6Z and also equally divergent from the 12Z regular NAM.

    btw, regular NAM want to give us a soaking RAIN on Sunday.

    I thought that system was passing South of us. Oh, how things change around here. 😀

  16. Dear heavens the wind is certainly in play today. Wunder says 22 but I am certain some gusts are over that. It pushed the chair I was in an inch or so….and I’m no lightweight

  20. I’ll be in Wilmington, NC late next week. I’m sure it will be low to mid 90’s with the dew point somewhere around 75.

  22. TK, what a wonderful picture of your Gracie-Jo. I just donated to the very important cause.

    Been away from WHW as I’ve been very busy at work, and helping prepare my son for his return to the Netherlands. He left on Tuesday. He’ll be there for a while. It’s hard to adjust to. My children are the most important part of my life.

    Oh, I hear the wonderful sound of a rain shower. I can only imagine the joy this is giving the trees and plants.

      1. I now see that Gracie-Jo is your child, Coastal, and not TK’s! I misread TK’s re-post. Well, it’s a wonderful picture, Coastal, and I’m happy that I donated to a great cause.

  25. Nice downpour right now here at the Storm HQ World Headquarters Compound. Just sitting down to take a look at the guidance for the rest of today into the weekend and start of next week (part of my daily prep for my evening shift). So, I have no thoughts yet on the convective possibilities for the rest of today or tomorrow.

  26. There is a tornado warning, Doppler radar indicated, for a thunderstorm ENE of Allentown, PA.

  27. It’ s 3:19 PM and the storms are not even to the Hudson River.
    I am feeling more and more that there will be convection in Eastern sections tomorrow.
    And you can kiss any rain good-bye for this evening/night.

    1. There may not be much rain that reaches Boston, but you are going to be surprised at how fast that line gets east.

  28. current HRRR still moves this PMs convection to the coast late this evening. Don’t know how, but it does. We shall see.

  29. Line is hauling. Will cross eastern New England between 6 and 8PM (a bit later to the southeast of Boston) in whatever shape it will be in. Current indications are better activity will be in NH versus MA but not the final word yet.

    The severe thunderstorm watch for west of here was the correct call by the NWS.

    1. Hey TK…did we get hit with that rain an hour or so ago in Woburn? Wondering how bad it was if we did…thanks.

      1. It depends on where you were. Most of Woburn got it, and had 0.15 to 0.25 inch. The West Woburn station reported 0.20 inch.

        1. Yes West by the (former) farm. I was in Waltham and it got slammed pretty good. Was hoping we didn’t get that back home but sounds like we did.

  31. Timing is right on track. Doesn’t look good for sustaining storms all the way to the coast in eastern MA, but southern NH looks better. I’m heading that way to see what happens, and if it’s disappointing there, well I’ll be at Hampton Beach for a treat. 🙂

    1. I don’t mind if it skips coast. Son coming tonight so would be nice to be outside. But if we have a storm then it is just a bonus

  32. I think NYC and/or its suburbs are getting some kind of straight line wind event with storms moving through.

    Sure plenty of heat to work with down there. I think it was 90F/75F with the heat index at 100F.

  33. John I saw your comment earlier about wanting 3H weather. You would have loved it down in Williamsburg, VA where I am vacationing. The temperature hit a high of 100 degrees.

    1. Bastille Day attack in Nice turns my stomach. I assume it’s ISIS. The cowardliness. There’s nothing courageous about killing the unarmed innocent. Brainwashed to believe they’re martyrs, these criminal young men are in fact nihilistic murderers. Guided by an twisted ideology even Bin Laden abhorred, they’re desperately striking out against anything and everything as their so-called caliphate implodes. Mosul will soon fall, and Raqqa after that. The problem is that what will replace ISIS is state-sponsored repression (Syrian regime under Assad) and a completely and utterly incompetent and often discriminatory (against Sunnis and Kurds) government in Iraq. This will perpetuate the cycles of violence in the Middle East, and will lead to more terrorist attacks in the West. No easy solutions. Grim.

      Nice, je pleure.

  36. Heartbreaking news from France. So sad that this has become the normal.

    Some reports of damage from the Holyoke, MA area in an otherwise unimpressive thunderstorm event. A very interesting looking picture has emerged from Westfield showing what certainly looks like a funnel cloud. Radar did not seem to indicate rotation. Would love a professional opinion if TK or SAK is around, the picture is below.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CnXB15_XgAQ2QJU.jpg

    2. Pretty awesome photo. A video would have revealed the truth. too bad.

      Sure looks like a funnel to me, but I am not a trained Met.

      Pretty robust looking one at that.

  38. Hints of convection tomorrow from HRRR.
    Appears to dry out after trough, but re-humidify prior to the actual front.

  40. Ok so Brady will probably be needing to serve that stupid suspension that the looser Goodell put down on Brady. This could benefit the patriots.
    1 Jimmy g is not a bad QB and with the amount of time behind Brady, he has learned the system.
    2. Patriots can win in more ways that one.
    3. Pats defense can win the Patriots games.
    4 3 of the 4 games are at home, not the hardest of the schedule Could go 2-2 3-1 pushing it when I say 4-0 but its possible. games will be close so who knows which ones the pats will win( could lead to great trade bait)
    5 We will have a pissed off , well rested , GOAT QB come October.
    6 we all know what happened the last time the pats looked out of it 😀 at 2-2

  41. At 11PM last night Eric was talking about thunderstorms today in Eastern sections.
    Latest NWS discussion only talks about isolated thunderstorms. Latest guidance shows
    NOTHING.

    Dew point at Boston is 72. With the front in the area, shouldn’t there be some convection?

    Right now, not looking that way. HRRR doesn’t even show any.

    SPC has us in the general thunderstorm aream, with 10%

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/imgs/enh_2000.gif?1468579435357

    SREF has us in a 40% chance of thunderstorms

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