Friday Forecast

160 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 15-19)…
A weakening cold front will hanging in the region today may trigger a few isolated showers and thunderstorms but otherwise a dry and hot day is on tap. There will be even less of a risk of an isolated storm on Saturday and the chance will be gone by Sunday. The hottest of the 3 days will be today. Humidity will lower during the next 3 days but make a come back early next week, as will the chance of thunderstorms are another weakening front moves into the vicinity.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, especially eastern MA and RI. Humid. Highs 79-85 Cape Cod, 84-92 immediate shores, 92-97 elsewhere. Wind light W with a few weak sea breezes near the coast.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early then mostly clear. Less humid. Lows 65-73. Wind light W.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 84-92, cooler Cape Cod.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 62-70. Highs 84-92, cooler Cape Cod.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms especially late-day. More humid. Lows 64-72. Highs 85-93, cooler Cape Cod.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 65-73. Highs 83-91, cooler Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 20-24)…
Warm/dry July 20-21. Heat/humidity, and risk of a few showers/thunderstorms July 22-24.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 25-29)…
Above normal temperatures, drier than average but still some risk of a few showers/thunderstorms at times.

160 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK !

    Question : today’s 92-97F, do the models factor in the drought or is that the max temperature potential based on 850mb temps, sfc wind direction, mixing, etc without consideration of the long term precipitation deficits ?

    The reason I ask is that today’s weather setup seems prime to be enhanced by the dry ground.

    No indirect sea breeze from the south coast, a slight lowering of humidity north of the Mass Pike and I’m guessing most of the clouds would be in southernmost New England with the slight chance of storms.

    I guess my focus areas for drought enhancement of heat today would be Boston, the north shore, Merrimack valley and interior southernmost NH.

    I hope my question makes sense 🙂

    Wondering if somewhere takes a run at 100F because of the drought ?

  4. Thank you. Who took the wind and can that person please return it

    I’ll have to go find these pictures of Daves

  6. Sure is off to a hot start in the city . These days working out in the field can be a challenge but mostly all is good . Side job tonight so I’ll be in the elements till around 8 tonight . I love this weather thought I can’t get enough and the only complaint would be I would rather be enjoying it in shorts and flippers instead of jeans and boots .

  9. Good morning and thank you for the update TK.

    Isolated storms at best today?

    I just heard a forecast on the radio (Full disclosure, WERS, so take it fwiw),
    that calls for very hot today, high 96 with HEAVY RAIN this afternoon. 😀 😀 😀

    re: Photos
    My soon took them. I think he was a bit scared last night. He had a video as well that showed lightning strike after lightning strike every couple of seconds. That is why
    he was able to catch a few. I am happy you liked them. I figured they were appropriately weather related.

    re: temperatures today
    I had said all week long that I was concerned about the HEAT for today.
    Would NOT surprise me in the slightest IF some place(s) made a run at 100
    today. And Tom, your comment about the dry conditions is spot on and I do
    NOT believe the models take that into account, but I sure could be wrong.
    Prime locations would be in the immediate Boston area, as areas N&W, including Merrimack Valley have had rain. Also some areas to the SE of Boston have also had
    rain. SO I am thinking Boston itself and SW suburbs “may” be in line for that run.
    Even TK thinks it could get mighty HOT in some places as he has 97 at the top
    of his range. I believe Higher than most have indicated.

    I want some RAIN. I am sick and tired of watering my new lawn.

  12. Thanks TK. It’ll be interesting to see what we get for convection today. The global models are unimpressed, and some of the typically bullish high res guidance is up to the usual tricks. The HRRR looks to be a good compromise- scattered showers with an isolated thunderstorm, favoring along and southeast of 95.

    FWIW, the HRRR seemed to do a very good job with yesterday’s late day line of convection, but it missed the heavy showers across eastern areas earlier in the day.

  13. From NWS

    .SYNOPSIS…
    — Changed Discussion —
    Hot and humid today with scattered afternoon thunderstorms primarily
    across eastern CT…RI and southeast MA.

    Note: They are NOW saying scattered as opposed to isolated
    That is a CHANGE.

  14. Also, just for giggles, our friend Joe Bastardi issued his preliminary winter outlook today. He’s calling for a warm December but otherwise cold winter, with above normal snowfall for our area.

    It’s going to be a difficult seasonal forecast I think. La Nina is not really behaving itself. Obviously it’s way too early to know for sure, but my very early inclination is to generally lean in JB’s direction, with several months to refine details.

  15. JP Dave…
    WERS forecast: They are partially quoting the NWS point forecast. No meteorological thought was put to use there since they dint have one.
    NWS used scattered instead of isolated because of a shift change and different person doing it. The activity will likely have coverage of under 30%.

    Tom…
    ECMWF apparently takes spill moisture into account as do some of the short range models, but I don’t believe it to be that reliable.

    2. re: WERS
      Well, I kind of figured that. I thought that is was particularly amusing.
      WERS has no MET and have no real news staff either. It is staffed by Students and some professionals. I really like the station. Their Music is awesome, however, their news and weather sucks big time.

      1. Hey. My daughter is an Emerson grad and was a DJ at WERS for 18 months. It’s kids learning the business. They have one professional announcer at the station, George Knight. FYI, my daughter has been on air for 15 months at KUT, the NPR station in Austin, Texas.

    3. I notice you answered Dave and Tom but didn’t comment on my question re who took the wind. May I assume it was you? And do you plan to return it any time soon? 😉

  16. Very humid outside, it looks like one of those days where you know you can get good thunderstorms later by just looking outside and seeing how hazy it is ( not saying tjat will happen, i wish) . JP dave i saw the map you posted about the cold front still being in ny state. Wouldn’t that mean we will get thunderstorms later as the front pushes eastward? I am curious why we don’t have a good chance of Thunderstorms today, it certainly is muggy and the air is very moist, but i am surethere are other factorsthat play in here why we won’t. Maybe nothing to fire up these storms

    1. It looks there will be some.

      I think the biggest problem is that the front is weakening and slowing down.
      When it slows down, it doesn’t have as strong a push and therefore not as
      much lift. After the passage of the trough last evening, even though it is humid at the surface, there may have been an introduction of drier air at mid levels which would limit convection.

      I am probably out to lunch on both counts.

  19. Interesting, In addition to the convection around 17-18Z boston, south, the HRRR
    is now also showing a spike in the CAPE around Boston to 2,500 Joules around 0Z this evening with another line of convection approaching. Hmmm

    Also Lifted index of around -7 at that time. Interesting, indeed.

  22. Latest from NWS:

    — Changed Discussion —
    10 AM UPDATE…

    Clear to partly cloudy skies have developed and will allow
    for Ample solar heating which will aid in the development of
    afternoon thunderstorms. A few stronger thunderstorms are likely.
    A few marginally severe thunderstorms may be possible with main
    threat being damaging wind gusts. Brief heavy rain is also
    expected with pwats around 2 inches.

    1. Oh, and the wind is now WNW. Talk about a hot weather wind direction.
      Not sure what this means in terms of possible convection. It certainly has
      dried out a tad and not sure of significance of change in wind direction. Could be momentary. We shall see.

  24. 14Z HRRR shows convection erupting, starting over SW CT at 11AM.

    Looking at radar, now that it is past 11AM. NOTHING.

    Therefore the 14Z HRRR has NOT verified.

      1. I always use it with caution. 12Z 4KM NAM also shows convection.

        We shall see. Scanning radars for verification.

        That fact that it is not, at least yet, raises the RED FLAG for me. 😀

  25. Dewpoints being 70+ is not always a guarantee of storms. You still need a trigger and some amount of instability.

    There is some triggering on place but it’s warm aloft which is a hindrance.

    2. Seeing 700MB temperatures of 5-7.5 C or about 41 to 46 F.
      700MB is about 10,000 or so.

      What would we want at that level?

      500MB is -9C or about 15 F

      Is that too warm at that level? And what would we want at that level?

      Thanks

  27. HRRR definitely busting right now on timing of convective initiation. Each run has been trending more aggressive. It already had activity firing off by now though.

  28. As good as HRRR can be at times, other times it can be clueless and depict fair weather cumulus as severe storms.

    The trick is trying to figure out where it excels and where it fails, and whether or not there is any consistency to these successes and failures.

  29. Logan at 11:20, 91 with DP 63. That is a HUGE drop off in Dew Point temperature.
    Wind West at 8 mph.

    We aren’t even close to the heat of the day. How high will logan go (assuming it
    stays away from a sea breeze)

    AND, what is causing this drop in Dew point values?

    surface map

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

    Mixing and drying from above? Where is the dry air originating?

    and in addition to warmth aloft, this must also be contributing to no convection.

  30. It’s already up to 90F here at the Storm HQ World Headquarters Compound. That is not what I want to see as I roll out of bed and drink my morning coffee. (Before you make a comment about me rolling out of bed at 11:30am, remember, I get home from my shift at 3:30am)

  31. There does not seem to be a CAP in the atmosphere or at least weak.
    So that does not appear the be the problem.

  32. Now still 91 at airport, BUT dew point has dropped to 61.

    If something doesn’t change very quickly, I think we can kiss any convection GOOD-BYE!

    1. However, I still see MUCH higher dew points to our West and SouthWest, so I do not understand what is happening?

      1. A wind of of the west-northwest is a downsloping wind for Boston. That dries things out. That’s also why Boston’s hottest days occur with a west-northwest wind and not southwest.

        1. Yes, I am well aware of that, however, the drying seems
          more acute than I would have expected. 😀

  33. 15Z HRRR delays convection for about an hour and then has it EXPLODING even
    MORE robust that previous runs. I guess it still see something. I ain’t backing down.

    HAH!!!!

    Well it has convection Exploding at 16Z or NOON. NOT!
    Another run NOT verifying. What a JOKE!

  34. Latest from Logan at 11:54 AM

    15 Jul 11:54 am 92 60 35 W 11G22

    that’s a temp of 92 with dp of 60!!!

    Look at that West wind. No chance of a sea breeze!

    1. The driest of air seems to be clustered right around boston. Move several miles West in any direction and is is considerably more humid.

  36. Broken line of low top cumulus just to my west northwest. The line itself is moving southwest to northeast.

  37. Just returned from marshfield where car said temp 93

    Humarock read 82 on car. Wind on Wunder says NW. It is NOT NW. It is SE unless the ocean and Brant rock are now north and west of me. It is LOVELY

    1. Oh and I am crediting TK with wind direction with honorable mention to Dave. Although I feel the hand of an angel in this 🙂

  39. This is the summer of virtually no coastal convection. At least so far. Of course, storms tend to dissipate as they march eastward, but this year it’s been a vanishing act once the storms hit 495. Last night’s a good example. I believe Worcester and even a few places east of Worcester got some storms and rain. Nada, rien, nichts, niets, im unsere liebe stadt Boston.

    1. My uneducated observations agree. I think several have even run out of steam when they hit CT River

    3. This statement is true as long as you ignore all the convection that fired up yesterday afternoon across the coastal plain. Something that has occurred a few times already this season.

      Just because lines coming in from the west don’t make it this far east doesn’t mean that nothing has happened.

  40. Brady will not take his case to the Supreme Court. He will take the four-game suspension.

  41. Brady’s legal team aren’t dumb. They know the Supreme Court wouldn’t take the case and a stay wasn’t in the cards either. The NFL won basically. You can bet the next collective bargaining agreement won’t allow the commissioner this much power to be the judge, jury, and executioner in discipline matter.

    1. Sad, but so true. Life now goes on. Let’s see what Jimmie G can do or as Vicki says, 10.

      1. 🙂

        He has a lot of potential…10 that is

        It angers me that Goodell and rhe NFL got away with something that smacks the rights we have in this country in the face.

    1. Radarscope shows a cell a few miles to my south. Looking out my back window I see some dark clouds to my south, but the line of trees impedes my view of the horizon. Temp has dropped from a high of 95 down to 91.4 though.

  45. Cell 8 to 10 miles west of Marshfield.

    Convergence definitely nearby with w wind in western side of town and a seabreeze on the east side of town.

  46. Another cell developing quickly to the southwest of the cell that’s very close to Marshfield.

  47. Looks like everything is popping about 5 or so miles south of me. Temp is back up to 95 with a dewpoint of 71 here at the Storm HQ World Headquarters Compound.

    1. It’s popping about right where it was expected to and pretty much when it was expected to as well.

      Hope you’re having a good day at Storm HQ WHC!

      I just arrived back at Woods Hill after spending most of the day up to now one town over. I’ll be hanging outside for a while this evening and enjoying a hot summer evening. I know you got work. Hope that goes well!

      1. Unfortunately, I’ll be heading from Storm HQ up to HFS shortly.

        For those wondering what HFS is – that’s my employer. Hometown Forecast Services. (http://www.hometownforecastservice.com/) As well as being one of the main forecasters, I also maintain the web page, our Facebook page, our Twitter feed, and write some of the blog posts. This is in addition to my duties as forecaster, radio broadcaster, and helping to maintain the computer systems. (Ah, the joys of working for a small business)

        1. You’ve always been a work-horse. But you’re dedicated! Gotta admire that. 🙂

          Tell the folks at HFS (that I know) I said howdy!

        2. Thanks. I have always loved wearing many hats. Makes it easy to never tire of what you are doing.

  48. Warning over Fall River Storms seem to be chugging along on same path. So far stating just south of here. But sure is dark down that way

    1. I can see dark sky to the South from my Office. Some of those tops looked
      pretty high. 😀

      1. I was hoping for some lightening in the clouds after dark tonight but think it won’t last that long

  49. Unless some things change in a hurry, it looks like the Boston area gets screwed again.
    First, the storms die to the West and then next they fire to the South.
    Boston is mired in the CHARLIE HOLE!

  50. Just took a look at the 12z Euro. QPF for the next 10 days is effectively zero for most of the area, save for some rain Tuesday afternoon across southeast MA where the rain isn’t needed quite as much. Otherwise, it’s a quarter inch or less for most of the severe drought area. Also very hot, high 80s and low-mid 90s just about every day. Dew points do come down after Tuesday’s front.

  51. In Kingston (at the med center’s other location) and it’s pouring here. A couple of claps of thunder earlier and a couple of bolts of lightning. Just talked to my son in Hingham….Sunny and 95

    1. One article I read said to kill the big ones as they are the egg laying females. How the heck do you know which are the big ones. I say kill them all

  54. It is part of cell that was warned over Fall River

    Hearing thunder now. Seeing some fantastic cloud to grou bolts directly west of here. Around Marshfield Hills area I’d guess

    1. Meanwhile one neighbor is washing car and another is on a metal ladder fixing a flood light.

      1. Yep …. This next storm has tracked further north and west. I think this one might truly get us.

        We’ve been trying to go to green harbor beach for an hour and a half now and I keep telling my wife, there’s yet another storm just to our south, but this ones going to be a hit.

        Thundering again.

          1. Pouring now. I believe Humarock is the northern edge of the storm. It will be interesting to see if you get rain.

            95F at Logan at 3:30pm

  60. Down to 77 here with 72 DP.

    Wind now SSW in low teens. Mmmmm those mud flats smell like summer

  62. I see Logan reached 97 at 3:50 PM.

    Great Call TK. As far as I could tell, you were the only one that had 97 as the upper
    range of temperatures. 😀

    1. Now, the temp has “crashed” down to 88 and the dew point has gone from 59 to 69 in response to a wind shift from west to south southwest.

  63. 86 with a 70 dewpoint at Logan now, thanks to a south wind at 15 mph. Meanwhile, here at HFS is lovely downtown Nashua (yes, I drive from Brockton to Nashua 5 days a week), it’s 91 with a 63 dewpoint.

    1. I have found that unless it’s a very windy day, at some point, the breeze invariably comes in from the ocean during the warm season. It takes Thursday’s type of breeze to avoid the seabreeze all day.

    1. Oddly I have been saying it is a glorious evening. Maybe it is the wind over the river. Typically, I notice humidity. I will say my hair has looked as if I had a really really bad perm (I don’t have a perm) the entire time here. Last night I looked like a clown

  67. That dew point boundary that came from the storms over southeastern MA earlier has migrated all the way to the MA/NH border and helped trigger an isolated downpour northeast of me (that is now about to exit the coast in northeastern MA).

    The stuff coming from the west has the plus of low level moisture and mid level instability but the minus of less support aloft, hence the quick redevelopment but also quick life cycle of the cells in the line, and the lack of CG lightning, or lightning in general. We’ll see what happens when that area reaches the boundary in place over northeastern MA and the northwestern suburbs of Boston…

    2. Apparently, the GFS, globally at least, has gone completely in the tank over the last 5 days in terms of it skill scores. Apparently the 18z run from Sunday, now that it is through 120 hours, was one of the worst runs of the model since the upgrade back in the spring.

  72. So far today, the temperature is RISING at the same rate it did yesterday.
    Will high temperatures overachieve today?

    80.7 here at 8:05 AM

    81 at Logan with NW wind.

    3. Have to go out and mow real quick before it gets too hot. Won’t be home tomorrow or I would wait until then.

      1. Do it today. Slightly better risk of a few showers/storms tomorrow during the day. No wash-out by any stretch but not worth the risk.

  73. Going to feel cool on my last full day down here with temps in 80s. Past two days 100 and 99. You 3 H fans would love this.

  74. Monday night could be interesting will see. NWS discussion
    Models continue to indicate
    elevated instability as showalters drop well below 0, K values above
    32 and TT above 50. In fact, models show MU CAPE values near 1000
    j/kg. Still to far out to determine if storms could be strong or
    severe, but something to keep an eye on in the coming days.

Comments are closed.