Sunday Forecast

199 Comments

7:59AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 17-21)…
Disturbances moving through the region today will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms until late in the day. Heat blasts into the region Monday but a cold front slicing into it will likely set off more showers and thunderstorms from west to east during the afternoon. High pressure builds in with drier and less hot air Tuesday through midweek.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. More humid. Episodes of scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 77-83 immediate coast, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind light S to SE.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms early mainly Cape Cod. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-67 except 67-72 urban areas. Wind light S to SW.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible midday to mid afternoon. A line of showers/thunderstorms likely from west to east later in the day but may weaken before reaching some far eastern areas. Humid. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-91 East Coast, 90-96 interior. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Lows 60-68. Highs 80-88 except cooler Cape Cod.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-68. Highs 80-88 except cooler Cape Cod.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68. Highs 82-90 except cooler Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 22-26)…
Hot weather likely July 22-23 with only a risk of isolated showers/thunderstorms by late on July 23. Better chance of showers/storms July 24 then drying out and a little less hot by July 25. Heat may rapidly return by July 26.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 27-31)…
Very warm to hot. Showers/storms are most likely around the early to mid portion of this period.

199 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  4. Morning and thank you for the update TK.

    TK, you finally got your cell last night and I saw it go right over Waltham and then
    onto Woburn. Precip missed my house by a few miles, so once again I got SKUNKED!!

    re: 6-10
    There is a typo. It says June 23, instead of July 23 😀

    AND, I’ll believe RAIN for today when I SEE it. I’ll get SKUNKED again with
    certainty!

    1. Yes, and I was sitting in a chair with my toes in the sand on Salisbury Beach. 😉

  5. If I am not mistaken the wind just went E or NE here. Temp dropped and I felt
    a cooling breeze from the window. As of 8:10, airport still reporting N wind. I think it changed. We shall see. Airport dp 64

    1. Variable wind at times with weak gradient, but predominantly south to southeast today.

  6. I guess I don’t have an East wind here, unless it was momentary. Temp back up
    to 76.1 here after dropping off to 73.

  7. Looking over charts this morning I have the following comments:

    1. Virtually ALL models have convection for today. (again, I’ll believe when I see it as I fully expect to get SKUNKED yet again)
    2. Next “possible” severe threat is Late Monday.
    3. and the next threat would be next Saturday, which is a long way off, but I see some
    early robust severe parameters. We know what happens with those.
    4. Re: Upcoming heat. Still looks to be there, however, the EXTREME heat previously
    indicated, currently does not appear to be there. 😀 But 96 or so is still damn hot, but much better than 106!

    Thanks to the lower DP yesterday, my wife made it to dinner last night.
    Now we’ll see what happens today with higher dew points and most especially
    tomorrow.

    1. YIKES, taking closer look at the Euro, it NIXES the predicted HEAT WAVE.
      WHAT happened? I am happy! However, the GFS still advertises a HEAT WAVE.

      Euro does have 97 for tomorrow! BUT 1 day does not make a heat wave.

    2. Notice how yesterday it was Friday with those severe parameters? Models can’t handle stuff like that more than 3 or 4 days out, not even the “best of the best”. 😉

  10. Thanks, TK, and Good Morning to everyone!
    Most of you read forecast models better than I. What are the short-term and long-term outlooks for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin?

    1. Likely nothing for the next 10 days at least. Lots of dry air out there. Still pretty early in the season though. I think we’ll see an active period between mid-August and late September, as we normally do. La Nina continues to slowly settle in, and the wavering “AMO” that we discussed in the spring seems to have made a comeback, which could benefit more activity. Not sure if TK agrees with me though 🙂

      1. It will lag for a while, then pick up, getting us close to normal by the end of the season.

  11. Thanks TK.

    The HRRR is fairly robust on convection later today; not out of control or anything, but fairly numerous downpours, and looks like an eastern MA special. As Dave said, most models are showing something at least. As for tomorrow, I think timing will bite us again. All the action to the west, very similar to last Thursday.

  12. EAST wind at Logan.

    I was just out watering the lawn as I was out and couldn’t get to it last night.

    I was watering to the East and the East wind was so strong it was blowing all
    of the water back into my face. Then the wind calmed down.

    Temp here is 79.5 and does not appear to be responding to the East wind.

  14. Barry predicted on air that Boston will have around (18) 90+ degree days. The way things are going right now, I certainly agree as well…maybe even a few more.

      1. I agree with that as well Dave, but it looks like we will go way past that number I’m afraid.

        1. Let us hope not.

          Right now I’ll settle for some rain this PM.

          I know, IF we plan to go fishing this PM, then surely it
          will rain.

  15. Barry also mentioned that we generally reach our highest temps July 20 – 25. I will try and remember those dates from now on.

    1. Only a climate normal. It can vary greatly.
      Boston’s hottest 2 temperatures fall significantly outside this range.

  16. Good day–haven’t been here since the winter but was looking for a Gilette Stadium forecast for Guns N Roses on Tuesday night. Based on the forecast above looks not too hot and dry, correct? Many thanks.

    1. You Ain’t The first person so ask this question. Don’t Cry, because it will feel just like Paradise City. Showers should end early, with sunshine returning in the afternoon and temperatures getting into the 80s. You’re Crazy if you think the weather will ruin this show. Some people have waiting 14 Years for it.(Of course, some of us also thought the odds of it happening were One In A Million).

        1. SAK’s taste in music is about as wide-ranging as mine, but we differ in some of our areas of concentration. But between the 2 of us we could probably cover most radio stations with our music collections (except maybe current pop radio and perhaps opera, if there actually are any opera stations, oh well…). 😉

      3. Clever. My 5th and perhaps final show of the summer. Saw Dave Matthews, Barenaked Ladies, Paul Simon and Phish–weather cooperated for all 4 thus far…

        1. So far this summer, I’ve been to the following shows:

          Def Leppard with Tesla and REO Speedwagon
          Whitesnake
          Frankie Valli and the Four Seasons

          Still to come this summer:
          Duran Duran (Tonight)
          Guns ‘N’Roses (Tuesday)
          Rick Springfield
          KISS

          A somewhat complete listing of all the concerts I’ve ever seen can be found here: http://www.setlist.fm/user/sakabakbrg

  18. Still 79.5 here. That East wind just won’t let it get to 80 and I am AOK with that,
    except for 1 thing. It will probably PREVENT convection here, UNLESS one
    drifts in as it is raining out. 😀

    1. That wind won’t really prevent convection today. It may actually aid it slightly at lower levels. It’s above all of that once again where the trouble is. A little better than yesterday but still not great.

        1. I think HRRR is “ok” today. I agree with its coverage and I agree with its dissipation of activity before sunset.

            1. It will for the most part. Not necessarily cell placement, but areas where activity is, and overall coverage. It did OK Friday, and less so yesterday, but both days it was too early firing convection.

  19. I see that the SPC put eastern new England under marginal risk. However in their discussion they mentioned that the activity will limited as of now. Maybe that means they will drop it after the next update? Anyone know when the next SPC update is?

    1. Marginal makes sense, as the risk is, well..marginal. 🙂

      I don’t think they’ll drop it next update.

      1. Yea, i still don’t have my hopes up lol. Any chance of hail today tk? Of course i mean like up to nickel size

        1. Probably not. A little warm upstairs and updrafts don’t sustain long enough for hail-building.

    2. WOW! that is for today. I thought you meant for tomorrow.

      Interesting. Let’s see what shakes out.

      1. Jp dave, if you read the nws dicsussion it says there will be a cape of 1500 to 2500 today, which is little robust in my opinion. I am sure there r other limiting factors but we will see

  22. The SPC has made some changes for tomorrow as well, apparently buying into some of the faster guidance, with a large expansion of the slight risk, and marginal all the way to the coast.

  24. A few sprinkles here in Wrentham with the cell North mentioned. Don’t hear any thunder. Storms today will be slow moving and of the pulse variety.

  25. So far, much like yesterday in terms of coverage. Should end up a shade higher overall, but I am not seeing the “numerous” that NWS was using as wording on their zone forecasts.

  26. So, it begins. on my zoomed in Nexrad, I can see 5 cells. There are plenty more
    in NH and ME, but I am concentrating on down here.

    So there is some, but not much. Earlier HRRR indicated 2-3 PM, so far so good.

  28. Question. Was talking to woman in the Nautical Mile food truck in Humarock center. She asked me randomly if I knew when it would thunder here. She said she is very nervous sitting in the truck during a storm because it is a tin can. It is more like a trailer and doesn’t have a vehicle attached. There are propane tanks attached to the back

    I know cars are safe but wanted to ask if this is indeed dangerous. I told her I’d ask and then go back and let her know. I want to give her the link here and also to TKs FB page as well.

    1. It should be relatively safe, provided the tanks are part of the overall body that is grounded.

  30. This might be a bold statement to make but i feel like maine and nh get way more thunderstorms than eastern mass. Looks like a decent line of storms up in western maine. Storms there are always organized and more numerous than here. Not just today, but i feel like they get way more storms in general.

    1. Maine is larger, so naturally they get more. They also have plenty of mountains that help as well. But if you look at storms per square mile, probably not a big difference between ME, NH, and MA.

  31. Nice storm blowing up over Great Woods right now. The anvil just blocked out the sun here at the Storm HQ World Headquarters Compound.

    1. It could have waited a while so we could see it heading in and then move away just in time for entering the venue! 😛

  32. We’ve seen the models wavering on just how hot it’ll get next weekend. Well, the 12z Euro is back to blowing the doors off; widespread 100+ both days next weekend on the 12z run.

    1. Where are you seeing this? Not on my 12Z Euro. It has 89 and 91 for Boston
      and about 94 and 91 or 92 inland on Sat & Sun respectively. Warm to hot for sure, blowing the doors off? I don’t think so. GFS looks a little bit more toasty.
      96 or 97.

      1. Interesting, my products show maxes over 100 both days except for the immediate coast. I’m using 2m temps, which should be used with care. JB tweeted about it as well.

  33. And the Storm HQ World Headquarters Compound is now under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning:

    BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    246 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    NORTHWESTERN BRISTOL COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS…
    WEST CENTRAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS…
    SOUTHEASTERN NORFOLK COUNTY IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS…

    * UNTIL 330 PM EDT

    * AT 246 PM EDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
    MANSFIELD…OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF TAUNTON…MOVING EAST AT 20
    MPH.

    HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

    SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

    IMPACT…EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS…SIDING…AND TREES.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    BROCKTON…TAUNTON…NORTH ATTLEBOROUGH…STOUGHTON…
    BRIDGEWATER…ATTLEBORO…MANSFIELD…EASTON…NORTON…SHARON…
    FOXBOROUGH…ABINGTON…WHITMAN…EAST BRIDGEWATER…RAYNHAM…
    WRENTHAM…HOLBROOK…PLAINVILLE…WEST BRIDGEWATER AND AVON.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
    BUILDING.

    TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM…AND MAY LEAD TO
    FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

    &&

    LAT…LON 4194 7124 4205 7133 4214 7098 4196 7091
    TIME…MOT…LOC 1846Z 259DEG 17KT 4201 7117

    HAIL…0.75IN
    WIND…60MPH

  35. .18 here. We’ll take it. That storm really hooked to the right. Up to 1/4″ hail reported at the NWS office, would be interested in their rain total as the core went right over them.

  36. Looks like it will pass to my south. Plenty of thunder but that’s it. “Full of sound and fury, Signifying nothing. “

  37. Just sailed into Salem Harbor on a North wind about an hour ago, and then a few minutes later the wind clocked around to the East, all the boats turned to face it, and it felt like the air conditioning had been switched on. Hoping this a breeze will quell any thundersrorms heading this way. Sailboats and thunderstorms are not a good mix.

    1. I think it’s safe there for a while, and possibly all the way through. But just the same please keep an eye out in case.

  38. I can see the Northern edge of the cloud structure from here. Awesome site.
    But NOTHING doing here as per usual.

  42. That echo SE of Brockton is looking Funky. ALmost like it wants to develop a HOOK.
    Take a look.

  43. Mass exodus off green harbor beach.

    Had mammatus clouds with this storm and some interesting looking “hanging” clouds west southwest of duxbury.

      2. It’s a scary looking storm. Saw it from when it first showed on the horizon. Very tall towers. There’s seabreezes it’s interacting with and the top of the storm was being blown off well to its east. I saw the mammatus clouds and told the group I was with that I was getting off the beach.

        1. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
          CENTRAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS…

          * UNTIL 430 PM EDT

          * AT 342 PM EDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
          PLYMPTON…OR 7 MILES EAST OF BRIDGEWATER…MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

          HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

          SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

          IMPACT…HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
          TO ROOFS…SIDING…AND TREES.

  44. Thunder not as frequent. May be east wind?? Still quite a bit south of my location. Just very dense fog here

    1. It’s wild isn’t it with the low clouds and fog at the beaches. Yes, it’s south of Humarock and probably Marshfield. Hit for duxbury and Kingston.

      1. Thanks Tom. I am fairly sure kids didn’t head that far south. But could be in duxbury

        It is certainly wild. I do love storms at the beach. Part of the reason is you can see so far

    1. Core going to go over Carver and most of Plymouth. Northern Edge just about to Marshfield. Kingston in it for sure.

  47. The storm has a slight east southeast movement on it. A pseudo right-mover. Basically it’s riding a boundary that’s in place which shows up nicely on radar as well.

    It’s the ONLY storm around. Wonder if it’s “stealing the thunder” from other possible activity. 😉

    Ok I am heading down 95S now toward Mansfield. HRRR shows a few possible storms still lingering in that area until about 7PM but we’ll see. Any other activity should be isolated from here on. A few mobile updates to come if possible.

  49. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz

    The amount of our planet’s lightning that occurs in tropical regions is …

    A. 10%
    B. 30%
    C. 50%
    D. 70%

    Answer later today.

  50. There were two showers that were building west of Lowell, they are now dead, which has been the case so far, I think Northeast Mass will be lucky if you see a showers

  51. 12z EURO, at least at 850mb, seems to continue to maintain a high heat signal for the end of next week into the weekend.

  52. Hard to tell by radar, but I think this storm may have gone over at least the northern part of Myles Standish Forest. According to warnings, there may have been 60mph wind gusts and I hope that did not materialize over Myles Standish Forest with all the people likely camping.

    1. Sure is. Interesting to see what happens to it in the next 10 minutes as it’s just running into the cool outflow boundary from the initial storm.

  56. A tiny call has just popped out around Dover/Sherborn headed this way. Sure, IF it
    doesn’t go poof.

      1. Mobile app radar more recent than nexrad. Shows cell
        stretching from Westwood/dedham to Needham/Wellsely

        Pretty weak. Probably about to die as it hits the sea breeze.

  58. Tom my mobile app radar shows close detail.
    The southern end of the first storm with RED echos, DID, indeed, pass right over
    Miles Standish.

  60. 4KM NAM full of do do regarding convection today. SHows mega conveciton for Boston
    with over an inch of rain. Right! Sure! And I’m Santa Clause. These model blow
    chunks!

    1. Thanks North.

      I think the Friday 103F comes from 5 years ago and also tied with another year on July 22nd.

      From this early early vantage point, perhaps Saturday is a day that has some potential, if the models stay consistent in their projections over the next few days.

  63. From the storm damage reports on NWS, looks like Middleboro may have taken the brunt of the wind gusts, with reports of trees down.

    1. That was area I asked about when TK and Dave said they saw rotation. Even my untrained eyes but schooled by Dave thought it looked risky

  64. I cannot remember the last time we had real rain in North Reading. It is really getting depressing…

  65. Repost

    Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz

    The amount of our planet’s lightning that occurs in tropical regions is …

    A. 10%
    B. 30%
    C. 50%
    D. 70%

  66. 18Z GFS has 100 for Boston on Saturday as of 2PM. Hottest usually around 4 PM
    or so. So the record of 103 is possible with this run. We shall see.

    1. Saturday record is 100, so we could break it if we got another degree or two on top of that 2pm temp.

  67. Latest from NWS re: Tomorrow

    There is a risk for severe thunderstorms during Monday afternoon
    and early evening. The main threats from a severe weather
    standpoint would be gusty to damaging winds and hail, looking at
    BUFKIT hodographs can not completely rule out an isolated
    tornado. In addition, models show precipitable water values
    peaking out around 2 inches. So any thunderstorm could produce
    locally heavy downpours, which could cause localized urban or
    poor drainage flooding. Have included enhanced wording in the
    forecast tomorrow, the threat for severe weather/locally heavy
    rain could last through early evening.

  68. Does anyone know the cost of the SNE Weather Conference?
    Or at least last year’s cost?

    I have no idea if it is $25, $50, $100 or more. No clue whatsoever.

    Thanks

    1. Figures. For a bunch of technical weather guys, you would think they would include the cost on the website for the conference??? But then, what do I know?
      Pretty funny if you ask me.

        1. We haven’t set the price yet. It’ll likely be somewhere around $90 for early registration and $100 for regular registration, as it has been for the past several years.

  70. Ok, I don’t get it. I hardly see any CAPE in any models for today, yet there is all this
    talk about severe storms? Can anyone explain that? I am mega confused.

    1. from NWS

      .SYNOPSIS…
      — Changed Discussion —
      An approaching cold front will bring a round of strong to severe
      thunderstorms this afternoon and early tonight. The front will
      cross the region later tonight, followed by high pressure which
      will build over the region on Wednesday then shift offshore by
      Thursday. Heat and humidity will return for Friday lasting into
      the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will move back into the
      region for the weekend as a cold front moves through.
      — End Changed Discussion —

    1. The water vapor loop shows disturbances along the U.S./Canadian border causing a fairly vigorous jet stream over New England and the surface map shows an impressive surge of warm, humid air.

      I think there’s going to be some impressive thunderstorms in western New England this afternoon and it will be interesting to track them eastward.

      1. Tom, we are camping in North Conway. Do you think I will see severe storms here? If so when do you think they will pass? Early or late afternoon? TIA

        1. Hope you are having a great time !!

          Yes, keep an eye to the sky up there. My guess is early afternoon on ……

          I sure would feel better if TK, SAK, Jp Dave, JJ and others chimed in also.

          2. Tom, I agree. They could be particularly severe up there. SPC has area in 2% chance of tornado as well.

            Be careful Coastal.

  73. From NWS in Taunton
    No major changes to the convection potential for today. Did speed
    up timing by an hour per latest hi-res guidance. Convection
    across upstate NY near Buffalo is being trigger by 500 mb jet.
    These storms will continue into the morning hours as K values are
    quite high, and CAPE values are beginning to increase. This
    convection is just an indicator of the airmass that will be over
    us by the afternoon. Thus confidence is increase for strong to
    severe storms this afternoon

  75. HUH? Euro STILL Nixing Heat Wave for later this week. It has one fairly hot
    day Thursday near 90, then in the 80s Fri,Sat, Sun and Mon. No 95 to 100 degree heat!

    On the other hand, the GFS bakes us Fri, Sat, Sun and Mon with temps 95-100 ALL
    4 days.

    So which one is correct?

    Go Euro, Go Euro, Go Euro!!!

      1. I did a very careful comparison. Looks the same up here, but
        an ever so slight shift to the East down arround NYC and Western LI.

  79. The slight risk area has shifted eastward and now more of CT and MA in slight risk.
    From SPC
    PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SPORADIC DAMAGING
    WINDS…SOME OF WHICH MAY APCH OR BRIEFLY REACH SVR LIMITS.
    SVR-HAIL RISK SHOULD BE MRGL/ISOLATED IN NATURE…AND A TORNADO
    CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN FAVORABILITY OF DEEP SHEAR AND POTENTIAL
    FOR STORM-SCALE AUGMENTATION TO AMBIENT VORTICITY/SRH.

Comments are closed.