Monday Forecast

212 Comments

9:33AM

(Forecast only. Will add discussion later.)

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 18-22)…
TODAY: Sunshine dominant into afternoon then line of thunderstorms moves across the region mid afternoon to early evening from west northwest to east southeast. Severe storms possible, especially west of Boston. Humid. Highs 79-86 South Coast, 87-96 elsewhere, hottest interior valleys. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Lingering showers/thunderstorms possible mainly southeastern MA early, otherwise clouds followed by clearing. Patchy ground fog. Lowering humidity. Lows 63-70. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-88, coolest Cape Cod. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 58-65. Highs 78-88.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-67. Highs 80-90.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 64-72. Highs 87-95 except 80-86 South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 23-27)…
Hot with isolated thunderstorms July 23. Hot with scattered showers/thunderstorms July 24.
Warm to hot, mostly dry weather July 25-27.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 28-AUGUST 1)…
Scattered showers and thunderstorms favor early period then drier. Temperatures above normal.

212 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK.
    JPDave I saw the SREF link you posted on previous blog. That is quite the bullseye for northern parts of New England.

    1. Yes it is. Doesn’t mean anything will happen. Just something to watch.

      FWIW, the HRRR is not showing too much in the way of significant
      tornado parameters.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Hope you enjoyed the concert!

    Will we FINALLY see some rain in Boston today. Models say YES!
    Will it happen? ahh, that is the question. We shall find out later on.

    At 9:15 it was already up to 86 at Logan. That would indicate a SCORCHER for today.

    I saw one model indicate 97 for a high. That seems achievable. We shall see.

  3. Reading some of the tweets from meteorologists here in CT looks like the best dynamics will be north and I miss the action today. Will see.

    1. I’m happy to see that 85F in central New Brunswick, which is where we should be getting to by late Sunday.

  5. Logan is up to 88 as of 9:35 AM!! dp 65

    Destined for 90 by 10 AM or so? 92 by 11 95 by NOON
    96,97 by 1PM and reaching the high of 97,98 around 2-3 PM?

    Far fetched? We shall see.

    1. Blazing out there ….. I happened to be awake at 3am this morning and at that time, I think it was Cleveland that was 77F and I was thinking how impressive that was and that it was heading straight towards New England.

  7. Logan has reached 90 as of 10:10 AM. I was off by 10 minutes. High temp still
    on track. A really hot one out there. Wind was SSW. That “could” limit high temp, but generally, wind has been straight SW.

    One saving thing: DP down to 63
    Not sure HOW that will affect convection later. IF there is sufficient lift, 63 dp should be
    just fine.

  9. More questions than answers with the latest update from Taunton regarding severe weather today. Too long for me to post here but a good read.

  11. Which camp of models is going to be right today???
    A complicated convective forecast for later today lending to low
    confidence. Overall advice is to remain situationally aware and on
    your toes for any severe weather threat.

    Two camps: NCAR ensembles indicating low probability of convective
    outcomes per drier air, more stable environment, activity over the
    N Ohio Valley transitioning into the Mid-Atlantic and robbing the
    better moisture, environment N. This versus the latest runs of the
    RAP, HRRR and the SPC SREF suggesting activity emerges across Upstate
    NY and translates into S New England. SSEO did not initialize well
    with the present convective situation.

    1. Right, so we have a chance of thunderstorms. Maybe we get them and maybe we don’t. Ha! What a forecast.

      I want a DEFINITIVE Forecast. Are we? OR aren’t we? I HATE this wishy washy crap.

      1. But that’s what makes weather fun. It’s rarely definitive 🙂 🙂 🙂

        (I do know what you mean though)

  12. This was Taunton closing statement.
    In closing, models lately have been underproductive lending to
    risk defined broadly over an area. This lessens confidence. So
    again, best advice to maintain awareness and to be on your toes
    for severe weather, especially across N/W CT and MA.

  15. 10:50 AM, Logan 91, dp 62
    Rate of temperature rise has slowed. So perhaps the high will be more in the order
    of 93-95. Hot is hot.

    1. I hypothesize that these lower dewpoints are a function of the drought. I believe the column itself is pretty moist (water vapor loop), but near the surface, there’s so little moisture to evaporate from the ground, that there’s an area in eastern New England that is repeatedly seeing lower dewpoints.

      As the front draws closer, I’d think the moist air pooling up ahead of it will overwhelm the drought factor and Logan’s dewpoint will climb mid to late afternoon.

  16. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12&region=us

    There’s 2 things on the water vapor loop that catch my attention.

    (1) the general deep moisture sitting over New England as shown by the light white on the water vapor loop. Combine that with the heat that has already built. It is far warmer in New England compared to ny state.

    (2) the disturbance moving through the northern Great Lakes, which is racing eastward.
    Just ahead of it, some storms are popping up in buffalo, Watertown (which is warned as a severe storm).

    I think if that disturbances impact on the jet stream reaches far enough south, then when it encounters the heat in southern New England, it could be quite a show.

    1. Thanks Tom.
      Conflicting/confusing data.

      Each run of the HRRR is totally and completely different from the previous run.
      There is no consistency.

      1. Indeed. Looking below, perhaps what JJ just posted shows how far south the SPC believes that disturbance will really impact things.

  17. Now I see that .4
    You take notice when that model shows values like that and when the SREF highlights an area. A couple weeks ago although now tornado touched down just over the CT boarder in the Hudson River Valley of NY there was a super cell that prompted a tornado warning and the SREF was highlighting that area.

  20. Tom I agree. I think this is a northern new England severe weather threat. That is not to say we can’t get a locally strong or severe storm but the greatest risk is up north.
    SPC will update today’s outlook around 12:30pm today.

  21. Thank you TK.

    Great discussion here.

    I’ve given up trying to guess temp down here with the wind. We were just at scituate harbor and it was just plain hot. Wind whipping at Humarock to the point where there are white caps on river. Last night even I needed sweat pants and a long sleeve top

    Humarock station says it is 88 with 67 DP. Wind warm but not hot. Wind SSW ….id say more WSW. Steady at 14 gusting to 24.

      1. That is right in tune with Humarock Wunder station. Sure doesn’t feel like it on River side or in the house but sure does on ocean side and on beach. I’m parked on River side deck.

  23. Barry, Danielle, and Terry were just live on Facebook about today’s storms. Obviously they also favor northern NE for these storms based on models. Interesting discussion though.

  24. This could go either way in terms of severe storms today. Models clearly not in agreement.

  28. Severe Thunderstorm Watch just posted and includes the Boston area. This watch up until 8pm.

  29. There are some severe thunderstorm warnings popping up in areas west of SNE and in northern New England.
    storm with a severe thunderstorm warning near Albany, NY
    Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan about it.
    Interesting storm west of Albany. Fairly shallow in nature (unimpressive core) but solid wind signature >50kts

  30. And now it will be interesting to see if the storms approach as a squall line, will they be more scattered or will it be both (scattered storms followed by a squall line) …..

  33. Next watcher after today COULD be Friday.
    Quick peak at 12z GFS some pretty impressive severe parameters.

  35. From Matt Noyes
    12:49PM scan in Pittsburg NH shows storm, velocity (rotation) and blue dot lower left is *possible* debris

      1. Without looking at a Maine map, that somewhat looks in the vicinity of either moose head lake or the folks, where there are plenty of people up there white water rafting on the dead and Penobscot rivers.

  36. Another tweet from Matt Noyes on that storm
    Latest scans indicate if something did indeed briefly touchdown, likely gone now as rotation broadens, debris signature gone

  37. Desperate for rain in Boston. It seems that recently rain has fallen to our west, south, and north, but not on the hub itself. The city smells pretty bad, with the heat and humidity, rotting food and probably dead vermin in alleyways (especially in Chinatown in the back of restaurants, close to where I work), and lack of rainfall to `clean’ things up. I find this weather rather distasteful in some ways. I look and feel gross when I run in the morning, when I get to work, when I arrive back home, when I sleep (lack of AC certainly makes for sweaty, clammy sleep in this weather). Triple H is great for some people, and I admire their grit. But, I’m like a melting candle most Julys.

    I’m very happy I’ve been proven wrong on the Red Sox. Though they lost last night, they’re playing consistently good baseball lately, with reasonable starting pitching.

      1. Indeed, Tom. I’m actually not a complainer. Heck, it’s only weather and it’s by no stretch severe or awful. Nevertheless, I could do with a little `coolness.’

        Have you noticed how cool it’s been in Kimmirut? They had a wonderful `warm’ period through the first week of July. Got to the 60s a couple of days. But, it’s been cloudy and in the 40s for the last week or so. Doesn’t look to change much this week, either.

        1. Yes, I have noticed that change in Kimmirut lately.

          I find though other days may have been hotter on the thermometer, today for me has felt the worst so far this summer.

  39. First tornado warning, that I have seen, of the day. Cell just north of Berlin, NH in far, far northern New Hampshire.

  40. It is sunny and quite breezy in Dracut this afternoon. I’m at Four Oaks Country Club for the day (volunteering at a golf tournament, not playing). So, no updates from until I get to the office around 6:30.

  42. JJ, where do you see those parameters for Friday. I looked at the 12Z GFS and I don’t
    see a whole bunch. 😀

  45. Maine is the current focus area for storms showing rotation per dollar radar, as two cells continue to be warned for a tornado.

      1. No, I am wrong. I don’t like the COD display.
        It got me all messed up. The pivotal is much better.

        Thanks

        Again, I’ll believe it when I see it. Same goes for today.

  49. For this warm weather season those are significant. Any other season they would be average.
    There certainly enough for thunderstorm development.

  51. Another severe thunderstorm warning parts of northwestern Worcester. This thunderstorm has been the most impressive in SNE so far today.
    UNTIL 245 PM EDT

    * AT 217 PM EDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
    MONTAGUE…OR OVER GREENFIELD…MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
    THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF DOWNING NUMEROUS TREES FROM
    LANESBORO TO HAWLEY AND ASHFIELD.

    HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

    SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

    IMPACT…EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS…SIDING…AND TREES.

  55. New cell just fired a little East of Springfield. Signs of more to come as the line
    approaches the moist air mass with ample instability?

    We shall see.

    1. Another cell just popped just South of Springfield. Our time is near.

      Just maybe Boston gets some rain today.

      I have seen it modeled from 1/4 to 3/4 inch of rain. I’d settle for the mid-way point of 1/2 inch.

        1. We’ll see. We’ve been down that path before. Like magic, many if not all storms will vanish as they approach 495 and beyond. They’re fearful of heavily populated areas.

          1. I know, I know, but honestly looking at the situation, I think this time is finally different.
            I hope I am not wrong. It’s not quite 3PM and these storms are FLYING Eastward. They will be to the coast in the 4-5 PM hour, absolutely the
            BEST time of day for a change. I think we get them, not saying severe storms (although certainly possible), but something to give us some rain.

            1. I see your point. And TK had been more bullish on some storms making it to the coast today than he was about the storms last week.

  56. Everything’s relative, as we’re all aware. Well, this “weather alarm” issued by the Irish Meteorological Service for tomorrow for the Irish province of Connacht really does put things into perspective. They’ve issued the following warning due to temperatures possibly making it into the upper 70s and low 80s (the 27 degrees referred to below is of course centigrade):

    Issuing Office: The Irish Meteorological Service
    Source: EUMETNET – MeteoAlarm

    10:13am , Mon Jul 18

    POTENTIAL DISRUPTION DUE TO EXTREME HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 8AM IST TUE UNTIL 7PM IST TUE

    “Temperatures over 27 degrees in many areas on Tuesday.”

  57. Watch that storm East of Springfield. It is NOT a mature storm in any sense as it
    just got going, but I see some initial signs of some rotation aloft in that storm already.
    One to keep an eye on.

  59. I believe we (Boston area, inside 128 and just outside 495 will get something. I am hoping nothing severe – but a heavy rain would be nice. I know any rain would likely be brief as so far these storms are moving right along so any rain wouldn’t help much unless they started training. In any case, mostly cloudy, breezy, humid and hot here in Sudbury.

  63. Wind is strong enough down here that it was pushing door upstairs closed and daughter couldn’t get open. Wunder station also isn’t posting speed. I find that happens when it gets too strong for their ewuipment. Has calmed a bit.

    Would a strong west wind help usher a storm to coast? The last two systems faced an east wind

    1. I don’t think so, it is the winds aloft that are pushing the storms along.
      And they are doing a good job of moving them along very quickly.

  64. Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Hartford County. We are about to get plastered here in Manchester. Lots of lightning and thunder here.

    Just hit 96 as well with a heat index of 101. Hottest day of the year thus far though I think this weekend may put that to shame!

  65. The storm out by Worcester looks like it wants perform Mitosis!
    Yes, that cell is beginning to split into 2 cells, one of which will move North
    of Boston and of course, the other South of Boston.

    Wouldn’t you know it.

    http://imgur.com/WGjvK5U

      1. If we hub residents don’t even get some rain out of this I’m going to tear my hair out …

        1. Yes, but the SOuthern storm after the split, “appears”
          to have realigned itself and headed almost due East
          towards the city. We shall see.

    1. Some signs of minimal rotation on that sucker. Nothing to be concerned about at this time. Keep watching.

    1. Split storm. Sudbury looks to be stuck in the middle. One cell to the North
      and one to the South.

      1. Thank you for that info. Wonder if we’ll get any rain. Looks to be more rain coming in from west but at this point stronger stuff is to the south of Sudbury.

  70. Some of the wind gusts with that thunderstorm in the Hartford, CT area from this tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    36 mph gust here at @NBCConnecticut and 39 mph gust at Brainard Airport in Hartford

  71. That Southern Worcester storm that split now looks like it “may” actually head towards
    the city. It also shows signs of intensifying.

  72. It very well could. The one effecting the Hartford CT area has gone through some cycling. At one point it was weakening now it is once again strengthening.

  73. Getting plastered in Manchester CT. Driving sideways heavy rain and wind. Looks like a tropical storm outside.

    No hail with this storm thus far and we have not lost power at the office.

    1. I don’t see the warning coming down to hopkinton. Maybe I need to refresh. But I could see what you were talking about. You taught me good, OS

      1. When I first saw it, it was hopkinton, then Framingham and now it is East part of Framingham, West part of Natick.

  77. That storm’s path looks like it just scrape the southern sections of Boston. Downtown may be spared.

  81. Rotation is still fairly weak. That’s why no tornado warning at this point. If it tightens a bit and lowers even slightly they will warn it.

      1. It wasn’t much. The northern cell skirted along 95. The southern cell was not even close.

  86. I came home and got caught in it. Nice storm. Highest wind I saw was around 40 mph. Didn’t see any 60 mph. Noce torrential downpour. I am guessing about 1/4 inch or so, perhaps a bit more or less. Saw a couple of branches down, but not too big.

    1. I came home because of the rotation. I was afraid that it might tighten up.
      Thankfully, it did not.

  88. Is that it? Or do we get something else with the actual front as there is convection in
    BY West of Albany?

    1. Just looked at radar out of Albany, NY and there’s a lot of rain heading east from central-eastern NY. Don’t know if any will get this far. Sudbury got some thunder and a few drops of rain.

  89. It stayed just south of the Brighton area. We had a little rain and some distant thunder.

  90. Looking as if worst going out over hingham harbor. It sure dropped south. Heading out to dinner cause no one but grandaughter and me likes to stay and watch. Sniff

  92. Had enough of the storm here to cool it down to 76. Just opened all of the windows,
    except of course in the rooms with ACs running.

    1. We had not a hint of that kind of wind just to the east in West Newton, just off of Rte 16. Just some rumbles and light rain.

  95. All clear here in Dorchester, at least in my immediate neighborhood. Downpours and gusty winds but never got really dark. Not long lasting at all. I have seen far worse.

    How is your wife JPD? Ok I hope!

    1. Sick from the heat, but hanging in there. She was not scared of the storm, because she doesn’t see the rotation. I told her that I would not have come home if there were no rotation. I was just worried it would tighten up.

    1. It did. Well from 92 anyway.

      Date

      (EDT)
      Temp

      (F)
      Dew
      Point
      (F)
      Relative
      Humidity
      (%)
      Wind
      Direction
      Wind
      Speed
      (MPH)
      Visibility

      (miles)
      Weather

      Clouds

      Sea Level
      Pressure
      (mb)
      Altimeter
      Setting
      (inches)
      Station
      Pressure
      (HG)
      1 Hour
      Precip
      (inches)
      3 Hour
      Precip
      (inches)
      6 Hour
      Precip
      (inches)
      6 Hr
      Max
      (F)
      6 Hr
      Min
      (F)
      24 Hr
      Max
      (F)
      24 Hr
      Min
      (F)
      18 Jul 5:29 pm 81 66 62 W 7 10.00 Lt Rain FEW030,SCT065,BKN110 29.93 29.917 T
      18 Jul 5:25 pm 81 66 62 WSW 8 10.00 Lt Rain FEW030,SCT065,BKN110 29.93 29.917
      18 Jul 5:10 pm 79 66 65 WSW 6 10.00 Lt Rain FEW033,SCT065,BKN110 29.93 29.917
      18 Jul 5:05 pm 79 66 65 WSW 9 10.00 Lt Rain FEW033,SCT065,BKN110 29.94 29.927
      18 Jul 5:01 pm 75 66 74 SW 11G28 10.00 Lt Rain Thunder Shwr FEW033,SCT065,BKN110 29.95 29.937 T
      18 Jul 5:00 pm 75 66 74 SW 13 10.00 Lt Rain FEW033,SCT065,BKN110 29.95 29.937
      18 Jul 4:54 pm 76 65 69 S 20G36 6.00 Lt Rain Thunder Shwr FEW032,SCT065,OVC120 1014.0 29.95 29.937 0.01 0.01
      18 Jul 4:30 pm 90 66 46 W 17 10.00 Lt Rain FEW032,SCT065,BKN110 29.92 29.907
      18 Jul 3:54 pm 92 65 41 WSW 20G32 10.00 FEW032,SCT065,OVC180 1012.7 29.91 29.897

    1. Not surprised. Just spoke with my son who is stuck in Dallas because his plane couldn’t leave Boston to get to Dallas.. Now due in at 1:07 AM. 😀
      anyway, some of his face book friends posted about many trees being down
      in W. Roxbury and Roslindale. I only saw some branches down.

  98. Absolutely no rain or anything in Holden or Clinton. Looks like the charlie hole moved northwest this go around.

  99. A lot of damage in Plaistow NH / Haverhill MA.
    Tough call between small tornado and a microburst. A friend of mine is with NECN and they have been doing some analysis. Signs point more toward microburst.

    1. No complaints on this storm here. I have seen worse, but this was good enough
      to satisfy, especially this year. 😀

  102. I wonder how things are up in North Conway for coastal and his family. Looks like that area is getting a decent storm now.

      1. We did earlier but had a storm come thru In the last hour. Nothing to write home about. Most of the severe weather was north and south of us. I’m not complaining one bit!

  103. Had to drive to dedham.
    Saw many more branchescdown,including a couple of bigbones. Huge tree down in w. Roxbury near Belleview hill

  109. I was at my company’s office in Merrimack, NH today, and around 3:00, the sky turned pitch black, and we had a real humdinger of a storm blow through. Very vivid lightning, torrential rain, and the section of Merrimack I was in (including the outlet mall and all the traffic lights) lost power. At home in Chelmsford, I heard there were some trees/branches down. Glad we got about 0.20″ of rain at my house 🙂 Sad that I couldn’t watch the storm though, was in an almost windowless controlled environment 🙁 Sure hope we DO get some good storms Friday-Saturday!

    1. Ugh now that just is not fair…knowing there is a storm right at our fingertips and not being able to watch.

      1. I’m part of a team testing equipment, we hit a roadblock when it started threatening and the sky was getting interesting, so I got to go to a window every now and then.

  111. Well, we had a few sprinkles and it is a really warm, humid late evening. The bank temp was still reading 82F when I drove by it 10 to 15 minutes ago.

  113. Sitting at sultry logan, terminal C. Son’s delayed
    Flight has finally arrived.
    Car reading 79.

  114. Gfs still has heat for weekend and mondsy, but has backed off on temps a bit at least capping heat in the
    Low to mid 90s.

    1. Nws backing off as well, but still says heat wave possible with temps upper 80s to loeb90s, possibly warmer sunday. We shall see. Wonder if what was considered a lock may not materialize

    2. 2m air temps are almost always too high initially on the model in that set-up.

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