Sunday Forecast

55 Comments

7:43AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 24-28)…
After a couple days where some areas had “fun” with thunderstorms, that is, eventful storms that included some but not necessarily all of the following: torrential rain, lightning strikes, hail, damaging wind … as a result of a couple disturbances interacting with hot air and humidity, we’re now in for a day that will be very warm and dry and storm-free as high pressure dominates the region today. But in true New England fashion, it won’t last long this way, as another disturbance from the west drags a warm front followed by a cold front across the region Monday, resulting in a blast of heat and humidity, and a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms. We’ll have to watch for some strong storms once again. High pressure builds in with warm/dry weather Tuesday-Wednesday before humidity returns Thursday.
TODAY: Sunny morning and midday. Increasing clouds later. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod and Islands, 86-92 elsewhere. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming light variable late.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 63-68 except 68-73 urban centers. Wind light S to SW.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Passing areas of showers morning. A few episodes of showers/thunderstorms likely mid afternoon on from west to east. Any storms could be strong. Humid. Highs 84-91 South Coast except cooler parts of Cape Cod, 92-98 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 65-75, warmest urban areas. Highs 80-86 South Coast, 87-93 elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 62-72, warmest urban areas. Highs 80-90, coolest South Coast.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. More humid. Chance of late-day showers. Lows 63-73, warmest urban areas. Highs 80-90, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 29-AUGUST 2)…
Humid with a risk of showers/thunderstorms July 29. A little less humid with only isolated showers over the weekend of July 30-31. Similar weather to start August. Temperatures above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 3-7)…
A fairly humid and warm period with a few episodes of showers/thunderstorms but still limited rainfall in most areas.

55 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK
    From NWS out of Taunton for tomorrow.
    ML CAPE values are progged to be near
    1500j/kg by the late afternoon, and this is on the normally
    conservative ECMWF.

    1. Yes!

      Storm #1 that ironically blew up over Lexington/Woburn and dumped hail, which covered the ground at the hill I hang out on over on the west side (near WeatherWiz’s place), tracked straight from there to Revere Beach so I got to experience a torrential dumping of rain and pea-size to briefly dime-size hail.

      Later on we got the wind from the outflow boundary of the dying line coming in from the north which allowed me to get some neat blowing-sand video. We didn’t get a drop of rain from this area as a new storm blew up offshore to our northeast and provided a nice lightning show. This storm then combined with the stuff that formed off Plymouth into a mini complex over the water to our east and gave us a cloud and lightning show that lingered well into the evening.

      We were able to walk down and view the sand sculptures with less people because since they technically closed the event they still don’t stop people from viewing, they just postponed all the events from last evening, including the fireworks, to this evening. So that allowed us to enjoy the sky and the sculptures, and we’ll be going back tonight for a storm-free fireworks display. 🙂

      What a great weekend!

      1. Wow. That is more than great

        I saw the system off shore and was sure those in the coast were being treated to a spectacular light show. So glad you got to experience.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I was out with friends last night. We were in Norwood and Canton and both places
    got ZILCH. There was one cell nearby, but that was the closest. I saw on Radar
    that JP got clipped by one of the cells. When I got home, my puddle estimate was .1 inch or less, but something. More than the previous night.

    Disappointing to see that potent line from the NORTH absolutely go POOF! Amazing.

    TK, could you explain why? Was it that the storms that were blowing up down
    this way zapped the energy or somehow stabilized the air ahead of that big line?
    Or outflow from the storms down here? There was a reason.

    Many thanks

  6. BTW, Last night Harvey was on the 11PM news and he was worried about tomorrow
    and called in an eventful day. He was very concerned about severe storms
    from the warm front.

    I got a glimpse of the 0Z 4KM before I went to bed and saw CAPE around here of
    4,000 joules! Have not looked at anything this morning. Without looking,
    I would say that helicity is usually UP in the vicinity of warm fronts, so I am guessing
    that is what had Harvey’s attention? Don’t know for sure.

    Now about to model gaze. 😀

    1. Neither myself nor my fellow met friends are overly impressed as of yet. There are ingredients, but not sure they come together just right.

    2. Not enough CAPE left down this way and lapse rates were not so great south of the border.

      We witnessed the classic “gust-out”. Basically the entire line became a downdraft, which is why the outflow boundary ran out so far ahead of the remaining rain which was then falling mostly from middle and higher clouds with no more updraft to feed it.

      That outflow boundary did kick off a nice storm just northeast of Boston that eventually merged with the stuff off the South Shore into a mini-complex (see above).

  7. Taking a look around, I would have to say at this time I am NOT impressed about the
    set up for tomorrow. In fact some models don’t have a lick of precipitation all over
    Eastern sections. Perhaps all could change with later runs today, but right now,
    blah, blah, blah.

    WPC doesn’t get the warm front through until around 12Z on Tuesday.

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/98fndfd.gif

    1. Oh, Sorry about that. That was around 0Z on Tuesday or about 8PM tomorrow
      night. IF this is correct, then we don’t get into the warm/moist sector until
      after sunset.

  8. On the other hand, our friends at Taunton are concerned. Here is a very small portion of their discussion:

    Given the lapse rates peak
    late, this could be another instance of very late day convection
    that lingers well into the overnight hours.

    Now that is something to watch. We will have to see.

  10. Quick peak at the 12z NAM super cell composite and significant tornado composite very aggressive NYC Long Island just touching parts of Southern CT. Probably over done but little too close to comfort for me.

  11. Regular 12z NAM has those aggressive values past sunset. You never like to see values like that close to your area as a little shift north your in it. Thankfully its NAM and over done. If EURO shows this then I would be more concerned.

  12. It looks like the 12Z 4KM NAM wants to squeeze the warm front such that
    only far SW SNE gets into the juice.

  13. Cloud cover maybe our friend tomorrow. If enough cloud cover we may not destabilize to the full potential. I find these warm fronts tricky sometimes. A slight shift further north more areas into the juice.

  17. I believe the best support will be in 2 places tomorrow: One across northern New England and a second one across western and southern CT through the NYC area.

  18. Thanks TK.
    I was surprised SPC didn’t put NYC Long Island and southern CT in slight risk. My area is.

    1. Hot August and reasonably warm to hot September too if things roll the way I expect.

  22. Seems to me that blob in the middle of PA has been basically in the same place or barely moving for quite a long time

  23. The radar is quiet here compared to this time yesterday.
    That blob you mentioned Vicki has produced some wind damage reports to the west of it.

  24. Made it to Bangor, ME today. High temp evidently was 88F and its falling through the 70s currently. Had some cirrus and fair weather cumulus here and there mixed in with a good deal of sunshine.

    One traffic spot was southern Maine near the Piscataqua River bridge, especially southbound, other than that, traffic was fairly good to us.

    1. Been in Ellsworth sice Friday, pretty good stretch, with just one 45 minute set of showers yesterday afternoon, but great today. Warm for up here, good day on the lake.

  26. Euro not so bullish for today. More like general thunderstorm. Shows ZERO precip
    for Boston.

    On the other hand, Euro very bullish for Saturday. Still a long way out, but it shows
    a Revere type set up.

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