Tuesday Forecast

116 Comments

1:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 26-30)…
The humidity leaves, but the heat hangs on today, and as a west wind blows and dries the air out, it will really heat up during the day. Sunshine will be abundant today, and again Wednesday, but the difference will be lighter winds on Wednesday and coastal sea breezes. Boston’s 5-day heatwave will become 6 days today, but it is questionable whether or not they reach 90 on Wednesday, depending on the sea breeze timing. Regardless, many areas away from the coast will still reach or exceed 90 on Wednesday, though humidity will remain low. Thursday, a southerly flow will take over as high pressure slides to the east and a weak trough and cold front approaches from the northwest. Though it will not be as hot, an increase in humidity will make it feel hot still, and add to it a risk of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms later in the day. The weak cold front will make it through the region, barely, by early Friday, and a weak wave of low pressure will move along it. This will bring a risk of some rain to southeastern areas, with less risk to the north and west. By Saturday, high pressure from the north will push the remains of the front further south, bringing dry weather, but a lighter north to east air flow will keep heat away as well.
TODAY: Sunny. Lowering humidity. Highs 82-90 Cape Cod, 90-98 elsewhere. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 66-74, warmest in urban areas. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82 Cape Cod, 82-88 other coastal areas, 88-94 interior areas. Wind light W except coastal sea breezes.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms afternoon and evening. Increasing humidity. Lows 65-72. Highs 75-80 Cape Cod, 80-86 other coastal areas, 86-92 elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain favoring the South Coast. Lows 63-70. Highs 75-83, coolest South Coast.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 62-68. Highs 76-85, coolest Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 31-AUGUST 4)…
High pressure should keep a disturbance mainly south of the region with perhaps a few South Coast showers on Sunday July 31 and temperatures mild to warm, not hot, and moderate humidity. Heat and humidity builds during the first several days of August along with mainly dry weather or just a few isolated diurnal showers/thunderstorms.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 5-9)…
Hot and humid start to the period then less heat with a better risk of a few showers and thunderstorms mid to late period.

116 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. For one, I am the first to comment. This forecast is very similar to the ones I just wrote and sent out to all of our clients around here. In other words, I agree with you!

  2. morning and thank you tk.
    enjoyed all that rain yesterday. NOT!!!!!

    not that you forcasted a lot of rain. 😀

    1. I don’t see any reason to forecast a lot of rain (outside of isolated thunderstorms) for most areas anytime soon. The exception is POSSIBLY the South Coast on Friday as a ribbon of moderate to heavy rain will be close by with a passing disturbance.

      It would be ironic if Nantucket got another soaking. They’ve had about 7 inches of rain in the last 2 months (estimate, not sure of exact amount).

  5. Hello from the border of eastern Nova Scotia and Cape Breton. We found a campground right on the Northumberland strait.

    Yesterday’s heat and humidity and front are pushing through the province and we are about to see a few hours of rain. We are not complaining as we have had 2 sunny, very very warm days for Atlantic Canada on the drive up and are looking forward to a cloudy cooler day. ….. Yesterday was warm enough to form towering cumulus in the center of the province that actually had a thunderstorm going about 6pm AST just east of Truro.

    Had my first hot turkey sandwich yesterday, my favorite meal up here.

    Have a good day everyone !

    2. Sounds like you are having fun – enjoy! And I am jealous – that hot turkey sandwich sounds delicious!

    4. Nova Scotia is one of he most beautifully peaceful areas I think I have ever visited. Enjoy, Tom.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    As I drove to Newton along Rt 16 yesterday, I saw burned lawn after burned lawn. I did not see one lawn that was lush, and it was the rare lawn that was even 75% green. It didn’t matter the town as Wellesley, with what I am sure are irrigation systems, was as brown as any other town.

    Personally, when we get our water bill at the end of summer, I am going to wonder why in heavens name I bothered to put water into the lawn.

    1. The only good lawns out there really are the ones that have lots of shade . I’ve seen a ton of lawns going down fast and basically they don’t even need cutting for weeks . With Tk calling for an even hotter August I believe the lawns will just be gone .

  7. I love the change of seasons. I also like some HHH during the summer – as summer should be (just my opinion). However, so far, I have one word to say about the HHH we have been having. ENOUGH. I am tired of (but grateful we have it as many don’t) of the A/C and yearn for leaving the windows open.

    JP Dave – hoping your wife is feeling better and glad you have A/C. But I am hoping for cooler and drier weather for her soon.

    Sudbury (as many other towns) has seemed to miss the much needed rain of the last few stormy days. But we have gotten wind. When the gust front came through the other day, we had some wild winds – trees were swaying back and forth. The air cooled briefly and the sky was awesome with different colors and various clouds.

    It’s a ways ’til autumn but I am looking forward to it. And maybe it will bring lots of rain? Maybe through a tropical system – nothing bad, I hope. Just several days of rain. ‘Though that would be nice now, too!

    BTW – anybody notice the sun seems hotter nowadays? I even noticed it last winter when it was 20 degrees out and I had to shut the shades ’cause sun coming in was so hot. Sorry for the long post – have a great day all.

    1. Hi rainshine – please never be sorry for a long post. I truly enjoy reading your comments. We have also commented on the sun feeling hotter. Interesting.

      I love that you had the gust the other night. They started here but then quickly died down.

      Although I feel summer is about HHH, I also miss opening the windows wide and enjoying the fresh air. I don’t rush seasons but I do begin around this period of time to anticipate the next and its wonder. After all, as I’ve said before and my mom always told me, anticipation is half the joy. Why not enjoy the joy while still enjoying the current season 🙂

    1. I would be curious as to the most days of 90+ at Logan. I believe it to be somewhere near 30.

  11. My concern for today is TK’s top of the range 98. Last time he had that, Logan hit
    that number. Please, say it ain’t so.

    My wife cannot take much more of this. She’s basically out of commission until
    this crap STOPS!

    1. I also thought that we would have some relief from the humidity today.

      Yeah, Sure! Look at this map. See any lower dew points?
      Yes, down from 70 to like 65 or 66 across the region. Bug relief!

      http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=8&scroll_zoom=true&center=42.14915080911932,-73.4271240234375&basemap=ESRI%20Topographic&boundaries=false,false,false&hazard=true&hazard_type=severe&hazard_opacity=60&obs=true&obs_type=weather&elements=temp,dew,wind&obs_popup=false&obs_density=1

      1. We have a 60 DP which isn’t bad at a temp of 84. Feels like summer. I am really sorry to hear about Mrs. OS. I noticed last week that I was struggling healthwise with heat although I also had a fever from an infection and that probably had a lot to do with it. I thought of Mrs. OS, though, as mine can be ended with antibiotics but she has to face the entire summer.

    2. Looking at the HRRR predicted temps at 850 MB, it says 20C +

      If we assume 20-22 C, then possible high temps today would be in the range
      of 95-99 Degrees and possibly 100, assuming adequate mixing and with a NW wind at 15, looking good for that. Most likely 95-97.

      That is HOT no matter how you slice it.

      1. From the NWS

        Mixing will bring down some wind gusts near 20 knots. Temps
        aloft are roughly 15C-17C on the GFS and 16C-18C on the ECMWF. Mixing should allow for max surface temps in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Dew points over Upstate New York are in the mid 60s, with low 60s to the north and west. This will mean a little less humidity, but still enough to be noticed.

        They are assuming 850MB temps are 15-18C. IF the HRRR is correct, 850MB temps are ABOVE 20C, which would mean
        even HOTTER today.

      2. It was only 9AM. The drying out is a process that takes time today. See my wording.

    1. Thank you for that informative link.

      Sure looks like the record for Logan is 30, which means it’s higher
      for many Suburban locations. I’ll bet SAK can tell us the high number
      for Lowell, which would be a great comparison.

  14. * A quick Google search, not I quick Google search.
    I proofread this post, too! I only catch the errors after I hit “Post Comment”!!!

  15. Thanks TK
    I am not seeing anything impressive with those thunderstorms later in the week.

    1. NOPE.

      You know, back in the day that I worked with Mets at the Air Force Cambridge Research Weather Radar site out on the Natick Army Labs Annex in Sudbury/Maynar/Stow (yes, the property lays in parts of all 3 towns), they
      all called AUGUST the severe weather month for our area.

      I never really learned the reasoning for that. Some assumptions on my part:

      1. The ocean is at it’s warmest and thus any marine influence is greatly
      reduced (From East or South).
      2. The Bermuda High is often well established providing warmth and humidity
      3. Cooler Highs from the North begin building and come down in a NW
      flow aloft and bump into the warmth and humidity.

      And there are probably other reasons and mine are probably full of crap.

      You would think that JULY would be our biggest severe month.

      Tk and/or Sak your thoughts? many thanks

        1. Cool, but do agree August is the severe month OR are you in Camp July? Inquiring minds would like to know. 😀

          Many thanks

          1. I’m in camp July and August. There is no clear cut winner. And to add to that, some of our more notable events occurred in neither July nor August…
            10-25-1925
            6-9-1953
            10-3-1979
            5-21-1995
            6-1-2011
            …to name a few.

            Anyone want to fill in the events? 3 of them are easy, one is bias-based, and the other is one I witnessed but was well covered by local news after.

            1. I can get a few….
              6-9-53 was the Worcester EF-4 tornado
              6-1-2011 was the Springfield EF-3 tornado

              Sorry, only 2 of them are easy. See above.

              I couldn’t even come close to knowing what any of the other ones are/were.

              Wait a minute, not sure of the date, but 1995 rings a bell. I KNOW there was a Great Barrington tornado back around that time. Perhaps is was 5-21. I think it was an EF-3 if I remember correctly. And I also remember that the SPC missed it completely.

              10-3 smacks my memory of a tornado somewhere in CT????

              The 1925 event?????? Don’t know

              1. I was going to say Great Barrington for 95 also. My daughter was in area for horse show for Great Barrington and the year sounds about right.

    2. It’s a bit early to be sure on that. It may not look like a synoptic setup conducive to an outbreak of severe storms, but with it likely to be hotter that computer guidance says, muggy, and a front will be nearby…that’s plenty of reason to keep the watchdog on duty…

  16. A 90+-degree day today will give Boston 12, 90-degree days in 2016, 13 here in Taunton.

  17. At 9:40 AM, Logan was up to 88 with dp 63. Sorry, but that is still quite uncomfortable.
    That is pretty damn hot for that hour of the day.

  19. Time to bring out all the rain dances we can find…wish I could even remember the last time we had a prolonged period or full day of rain…at least the central air has been fixed for a week, so no more non-stop sweating in this heat.

  20. Answers to yesterday’s Accuweather Trivia Quizzes.

    . How many cloud-to-ground lightning bolts occur in the United States each year?

    A. 1 million
    B. 25 million
    C. 50 million
    D. 75 million

    The answer is B.

    2. Under ideal conditions, you can see lightning up to …
    A. 10 miles
    B. 25 miles
    C.50 miles
    D. 100 miles

    The answer is D.

    3. Over the last century, the lightning death rate in the U.S. has been …
    A. falling
    B. steady
    C. rising
    D. rising sharply

    The answer is A.

    2. Thank you, Longshot. The first was the one I guessed at. Granddaughter and I looked up the other two last week when we were watching the lightening in the clouds. When we did look up the death rate, I was interested to see there was some theory about more deaths as the earth warms. Never did look into why as a seven year old tends to want to read to the next fact 🙂

  21. In terms of severe weather I always felt July was the biggest month when it comes to that. June starts to ramp up it peaks in July then August you get some severe weather but the decline is on. September you can get some thunderstorms but I don’t remember any big severe weather in that month.

    1. I agree with that assessment, but I can’t get it out of my mind what
      all these Mets were telling me way back when. It was cool, we were using
      some of the first Doppler Radar displays. None of this fancy stuff we have now, but to pick up on rotation, we would have to examine the display and see
      little wrinkles in the output. Hard to explain. We would note the time and location and then a team would visit the area later or the next day.

      We had 3 radars. A regular one, and Azimuth one and the big new Doppler.

      This was in the late 60s.

      1. FYI, the azimuth radar would oscillate up and down over several angles while at the same time rotating. It would give us a great
        vertical profile of any approaching storm system. Excellent
        for determining cloud tops as well.

    2. I think of August as the start of transition…or used to. We had warm days but we also had the cool days tossed into the mix. As far as severe, I seem to recall the tropics tend to be more active here in August. I am not close to being confident when I say that. I’ll have to look at tropical activity here in July vs August.

  22. Today was not advertised as a comfortable day. It was advertised as a hot day with lowering humidity, not low humidity. The dewpoint will be gradually falling overall, but high temps over 90 in most areas .. not refreshingly pleasant. 😉

    1. Tk,

      I need to be more clear in my posts. I agree, you were VERY clear
      in assessing today’s weather. Not exactly what I have been hearing elsewhere, is all.

      Yes, dp of 62 or 63 is MUCH better than dp of 70 or 71, however, with temps
      well into the 90s, a dp of 63 is still quite uncomfortable.

  23. Do not know what it means, if anything at all, BUT the temperature at Logan has
    been fluctuating between 86 and 88. Wind goes WNW and temp jumps to 88. Wind
    goes NW and temp drops to 86. It’s just weird is all.

  24. Getting back to severe weather one of the strongest tornadoes we had here in New England was back in October 1979 in Windsor Locks, CT which was rated an F4. The week after that was about an inch of snow in that area.

    1. I need to read down I see. I said that above and asked for your confirmation. Thanks……you read my mind!

  25. Vicki with regards to tropics I don’t recall any months other than August and September when there were strikes from a tropical storm or hurricane. I remember reading how the 50s were quite active for tropical activity in New England.

    1. 50s were quite active.

      A number of years ago we had a tropical storm in July.

      Was Bob the last hurricane we have had? 1991? Wow, we are due.

      1. Since 1851, New England/Long Island has had 41 system of at least tropical storm strength make landfall, 22 of them hurricanes. The breakdown by month:

        May: 1 TS
        June: 1 TS
        July: 4 TS
        August: 2 TS, 6 H
        September: 8 TS, 14 H
        October: 2 TS, 2H
        November: 1TS

        Earliest TS: Unnamed Storm #2, May 30, 1908 (hit eastern LI as a 35-knot tropical storm before moving into eastern CT)
        Latest TS: Unnamed Storm #8, November 3, 1861 (Crossed the Eastern tip of LI as a 60-knot TS before hitting SW RI)
        Earliest Hurricane: Hurricane Belle, August 9, 1976 (hit central LI as an 80-knot hurricane before moving across west/central CT)
        Latest Hurricane: Unnamed Storm #5, October 10, 1894 (Crossed Eastern LI as a 75-knot storm before moving into eastern CT)

        The 25-years since Bob hit is the 2nd longest-gap on record for New England/Long Island. The record is 28 years, between 1896 and 1924. The average is once every 8 years. To say that we are overdue is a HUGE understatement.

        2. Thank you SAK – Bob doesn’t seem 25 years ago. Time goes too quickly. August 19 is Mac’s birthday and he spent the day up and down from the attic catching water from a leak.

        3. I forgot to add that I find it fascinating that the record is 28 years and we have gone 25. Yes….we are well past overdue.

        4. BTW, the 25-year gap and 8-year average are stats for hurricanes only. The average for a storm of at least tropical storm strength is once ever 4 years. The last one to make landfall was Irene when it crossed NYC in 2011.

          In terms of major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher), we’ve only had 3 of those ever hit this area:

          September 8, 1869 – The September Gale slammed into Montauk with top winds of 115 mph before moving into SW RI.
          September 21, 1938 – I don’t think anyone needs the description of this storm.
          August 31, 1954 – Hurricane Carol crosses extreme eastern LI with 115 mph winds before moving into eastern CT.

          That’s it. 3 storms in 165 years of records, which works out to 1 every 55 years. It was 69 years between the 1st 2, and 16 years between the 2nd 2. It’s been 62 years since. It’s not a matter of “if”, but “when”.

          1. I’ve already shared my mom’s stories of 1938 so will not here. I have also shared mine of Carol but can’t help but do so again. We were at Humarock (yep, even back then when I was five) My dad told my mom the storm was in NC so would not be in MA before end of day so off to Boston he went with the car.

            We didn’t have a phone. I remember sitting at kitchen table with brother in high chair with ocean water on the floor while our mom went next door to call my dad.

            A man (Col. Bissell as I recall) lived on opposite side of south river and took us to his house. We watched as boat after boat (including his) sunk in the Humarock harbor.

            1. My family lived on Hingham Bay in Hull during Carol. I was one year old, so I remember it all clearly 🙂
              A cabin cruiser (that is an old term) washed up on our front lawn. Entire fleets of small racing boats were destroyed. One sail boat broke its mooring, went out Hull Gut and its mooring line wrapped around a flashing light buoy in Boston Outer Harbor. It was found swamped but largely undamaged. The school 100 yards from us was open as a refuge, but we could not get there in the wind.

          2. We had something in August 2010 as I recall. It was predicted to be hurricane strength when it arrived here but was tropical storm I believe.

              1. Earl was a 60-knot tropical storm when it passed by Nantucket, but never made landfall. Here are the storms that have made landfall since Bob in 1991:

                Bertha, 7/13/1996 – 70 mph tropical storm near NYC.
                Floyd, 9/16/1999 – 60 mph tropical storm in central LI.
                Hermine, 8/31/2004 – 40 mph tropical storm near New Bedford
                Beryl, 7/21/2006 – 50 mph tropical storm in Nantucket
                Irene, 8/28/2011 – 65 mph tropical storm near NYC

                Storms that have impacted the area without making landfall (since Bob):
                “The Perfect Storm”, 10/31/1991 – 70 mph peak winds at closest pass
                Edouard, 9/2/1996 – 80 mph hurricane at closest pass
                Ophelia, 9/17/2005 – 60 mph winds at closest pass
                Early, 9/4/2010 – 70 mph winds at closest pass
                Sandy, 10/29/2012 – 80 mph hurricane just before landfall near Atlantic City. (Sandy was officially not a tropical system at landfall, and didn’t hit LI/SNE, so it is not included in my list of direct hits)
                Arthur, 7/4/2014 – 75mph hurricane at closest pass

                1. I remember Todd from WBZ was heading to Nantucket to report on Earl. He had never experienced a hurricane so was really excited and disappointed in the end. It was also the storm Pete predicted on Wednesday would not be hurricane strength and got tons of critcism for saying it. I still have the emails somewhere from pete as once again we were at Humarock and deciding what to do.

  26. Logan has reached 90 as of 11AM. That makes 6 days in a row. Really getting up
    there in terms of Heat Wave length.

  27. Just stepped outside for a moment here at the Storm HQ World Headquarters Compound, and the humidity level is definitely lower than when I arrived home at 3:30am.

    As for the 90-degree stats for Lowell, here they are:

    90-degree days in 2016: 8 (today will make 9)
    90-degree days in July, 2016: 7 (today will make 8)
    Most consecutive 90-degree days in 2016: 2 (today will make 3)

    Most 90-degree days in a single year: 46 – 1955
    Most 90-degree days in a single month: 23- July, 1952
    Most 90-degree days in a single August: 16 – 1955
    Most consecutive 90-degree days: 15, August 1-15, 1988

    So far, we have had 16.62″ of rain in Lowell this year, 4.99″ since May 1. 1955 had 16.43″ through the end of July, 5.87″ from May 1-July 31. Of course, August had 11.35″ thanks to Connie and Diane at mid-month, but that is how we usually break droughts around here – with a tropical system or the remnants of a tropical system. I have a strong hunch that is how we’ll break this drought too. The only question is – do we get a direct hit, or the remnants of something that hits somewhere down South?

    The 16.62″ is the 9th lowest total on record through the end of July (I have monthly rainfall data for Lowell back to 1826). 1955 was 8th driest. One other notable year on that list? 1985 was 5th driest. The drought broke in August, but then we had Henri and Gloria in late September.

    1. Thank you SAK. Certainly different than Boston (Logan). Crap, many neighborhoods of Boston would be different than logan. 😀

  29. Thank you, TK, for your incredibly accurate forecasts. There’s nothing we can do about the weather to suit our particular fancy, but it’s good to have an expert tell us what kind of weather to expect.

  30. 12z NAM wants to also bring instability in here between 12z and 15z. Enough CAPE for thunderstorms. On the cod site you can see the instability over the fish coming on shore and pushing north. Over done in my opinion and would be nice to get a widespread rainfall instead of the hit and miss stuff.

  31. Hi Captain Fantasic…Thanks for the link above! Actually I thought the highest was probably “just shy” of 30 but as it turns out, it is right on the nose. Hopefully we never get near it as TK suggested. 🙂

  33. 11 degree dewpoint drop so far at Logan from 70 to 59, as expected. More drying to come this afternoon.

    1. It’s not confirmed, probably not correct, and if it was, it would be a record for Asia, not the world.

        1. And I think there was some place in Lybia? In the Sahara
          that even topped Death Valley. I “think” Death Valley
          was 134 and Libya, I “think” was 136.

          1. Yes, and this just further proves that you cannot trust most news stories. Everything is a record. Everything is “unusual”. Like nothing extreme has ever happened. It’s largely bullcrap and gets in the way of the REAL story, which is what people really need to know about.

            It’s not that intense heat like that isn’t noteworthy. Of course it is. But it’s not this giant flame that’s about to split the world in half, even though they want you to come away feeling that way after you read it. Journalism is in a sad state right now.

            1. Agree. In any case, as long as it’s not
              129 or 134 or 136 here is all I care about. 😀 😀 😀

  35. Logan was up to 93 but has come back down to 91 with dp 57. AHHHHHHHH!!!

    That’s more like it.

  36. It’s amusing to me how the ECMWF can have such a great handle on the overall pattern at 500mb but totally suck on resolving the placement of surface features.

  37. 12z GFS very little CAPE for Friday. 12z NAM enough for thunderstorm development. I have a feeling the 12z NAM will stand alone with that as I would not expect the 12z EURO to side with the 12z NAM.

    1. With a low pressure wave sliding south of New England and an easterly flow I would expect nothing more than some elevated convection, probably along the South Coast give or take a few dozen miles. Also, the NAM is essentially useless outside 24, maybe 36, hours as far as predicting convection.

  38. Is this possible for Fri Night into Saturday AM? This from the 12Z Euro OR is this
    what you mean TK? But this makes 3 models, the NAM, the GFS and now the Euro
    that has this feature. I suppose the GFS to a much lesser extent.

    http://imgur.com/a/KpjVR

    1. We’ve seen this scenario depicted several times this warm season so far and each time the reality was a system further south with less rain, with the heaviest near or just off the South Coast. This is probably a result of an error common to all 3 models, given certain initial conditions. More study needed. I don’t buy the NAM/ECMWF solution. GFS is more realistic in my opinion regarding the surface features and precipitation.

      1. I kind of figured you would say something along those lines.
        I do remember before that earlier runs had us getting drenched only for the system to slip farther South with subsequent runs.

        However, IF my memory serves me correctly, on those occurrences, the Euro led the way keeping it South. This time it is full on board.

        I suppose we need a few more runs to see. 😀

        Would be nice for the rain. That Euro run had about
        3 inches for Boston. Now that would be very nice, indeed.

        1. I honestly don’t see any end to the dry pattern for the region as a whole.

          Yes, spotty areas can get soaked with thunderstorm rain, but that is not a regional drought breaking set up at all.

          Warm dry regime, as far as I can see, is good through September, and dominant through at least part of October, before shifting to a cooler (not seasonal, I mean with respect to normal) regime late in the year, but still dry.

  40. Not that I would advise buying it word for word, but the 12z GFS run today has a good handle on the pattern through about 240 then loses it a bit. Even taking into account what I think is a late-period error, is till has Boston at under 0.50 inch total precipitation for the next 2 weeks. Grated, isolated thunderstorms can change that for a few areas, but the overall idea is likely correct.

    Yet, CPC has been at it again with the above normal precipitation forecasts for New England in their medium range outlooks recently, though they finally flipped back to below normal in the most recent update.

  42. Was today’s high at Logan 93? OR did it touch 94 in between recorded observations?

    Curious. Many thanks

  43. Pretty much as predicted by TK, the 18Z NAM has now backed off on rain
    for Friday night/Saturday AM.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016072618/namconus_apcpn_neus_28.png

    qpf Waaaaaaaaaaaaay down from the 12Z run. Part of the process that will
    keep the whole damn system South of us????????????????????????
    Still has some rain, but nothing compared to the previous run.

    Hope not, but TK has been spot on with these set ups.

    We shall see.

  44. I wouldn’t bet on much rain in and around Boston with this next system, despite what the ECMWF (and to a lesser extent the GEM) has to say.

  45. 18Z GFS still wants to give us a decent slug of rain Fri night/Saturday AM.

    Let’s see what the 0Z runs show. 😀

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