Thursday Forecast

136 Comments

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 28-AUGUST 1)…
Heat and a gradual increase in humidity today as high pressure sinks to the south. A front drops down this evening and tonight and may set off a few showers and thunderstorms this evening especially in southern NH and northern to central MA. The front doesn’t get much further than that and then washes out. Low pressure makes a run at the region Friday but I still feel that the heaviest rain will be across far southern areas, leaving just scattered showers/thunderstorms to the north. High pressure will arrive Saturday with fair weather. A disturbance may produce a few showers later Sunday and Monday but that does not look like much at this time.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms late afternoon and evening. Increasing humidity. Highs 75-80 Cape Cod, 80-86 other coastal areas, 86-93 elsewhere.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a few showers early. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain favoring the South Coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms elsewhere. Highs 75-83, coolest South Coast. Wind SE to NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 62-68. Highs 76-85, coolest Cape Cod.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers late. Lows 62-68. Highs 76-85, coolest Cape Cod.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers early. Lows 62-68. Highs 78-87, coolest Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)…
Building heat/humidity. Mainly dry other than a few isolated pop up showers and thunderstorms later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)…
Warm and often humid with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at times.

136 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK. I remain skeptical as well. The one model right now that isn’t on board for heavy rain is the 6z RGEM, and that’s one of my favorite short range models. It was in the rain camp before but maybe it’s seen something. Even the RAP and HRRR though, while not in range for the event yet, don’t seem to support the rainy solutions to me.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I looked at the 6Z models available and the 0Z Euro.
    Still looks like rain, but the heavy duty rain has been backed off some, depending
    on model choice.

    Waiting on 12Z runs.

    Looking at the lastest experimental HRRR (9Z) which goes out 25 hours, also supports
    the rain scenario. Will continue to monitor.

    3Z SREF has us in a 70% chance of greater than 1 inch.

    2. Whoa. That is not good. Have we had that big an area in the severe to date? My guess is that we have but I’m not recalling when.

      Thank you, North.

        1. It sure would have been a surprise if it were smaller but I was wondering about last summer and if it was this severe. As usual, I was not clear on my wonderment 🙂

  7. I finally located the power cord to TV in bedroom….only took four months….so listened to news as I woke up. Although timing was bad since we are in convention rehash mode, what struck me most of all was that I just do not turn to network weather any more. Even more important, there is absolutely no reason to do so.

    TK, I know others have been singing your praise and I do not mean to be redundant (although I do it so well), but to say we are fortunate to have this blog and you at its helm is an understatement.

    I say thank you every morning. I hope you know that I….and all others…truly mean THANK YOU.

  9. I can see part of the region getting into a ribbon of heavy rain butbut I still do not think this will end up “for everyone”.

    I realize current model evidence does not support this opinion.

    1. Is there one model that supports it because Chris said the same thing on the news this am.

      Or —- even better —- maybe he is reading here 🙂

  11. 6z GFS also picking up on some of the higher helicity values for tomorrow with these values getting close to the Boston area where 6z NAM keeps it of southeastern MA.

    1. JJ, yes it show helicity. It often does in the vicinity of a low pressure.
      We have SE winds at surface and SW to W winds above. Hugh helicity, BUT
      look at the supercell composite. NOTHING there. No super cell, no need
      to worry about helicity. You need strong convection to worry about that.

  13. This tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    Strong shear and a bit of instability will lead to a tornado threat along warm front tomorrow south of us as well

    1. Interesting. As I said, yes IF we have enough instability for the stronger
      convection needed for a tornado.

      And you rightly point out revere, which was a somewhat similar scenario, except the low tracked farther North than predicted for tomorrow.

  14. Hard to believe its two years ago today the Revere EF 2 tornado happened.
    Tweet from NWS in Boston
    July 28th, 2014] Revere, MA was hit by a rare morning EF2 tornado

  16. 9Z SREF has backed off on rain considerably.

    12Z Nam send the axis of heavier Rain now South of Boston, but still gives boston
    1/2 inch.

  17. Quick peak at the 12z NAM on cod site and again over done at 12z has values around just over 2 parts of eastern CT then at 15z has values around 2 in southeastern parts of MA.
    Helicity over 200 and in some pockets near 300 at 12z parts of eastern CT and RI and 15z a pocket of helicity over RI over 300 and greater than 200 in parts of southeastern MA. Cape values less than 1,000 during time period in those areas.

  19. TK – what are you thoughts for Foxboro tomorrow morning? Was thinking of taking the day off and bringing the boys to the Pats training camp.

    1. Even if that area gets missed by the heavier stuff, I’d still plan for wet. Either way, muggy, 70s, not much wind.

      1. Damn…if they are forced to practice indoors then they close it to the public. Figures, the one day this summer where there is a chance of rain. 🙂

    2. Watch for isolated storms. If they are in the area, I might end up there at the end of a chase. 😉

  21. Regular NAM wants to give boston .68 inch.
    4KM NAm wants to give boston .21 inch.

    So there ya go.

  22. 12z GFS supercell composite values 0.6 to 1.0 in parts of southeastern MA Helicity values greater than 200 there. 12z NAM had supercell composite covering eastern parts of CT RI as well as parts southeastern MA. 12z NAM 4k showed nothing in both supercell composite or helicity.

  23. For Boston area in the around 0.5 for supercell composite from the cod site. Helicity values up there as well.

  24. 12z CMC has backed off on rain as well. Slight back off on the 12z GFS. HRRR and RAP do not look at all promising for heavy rain. The mid-Atlantic will get drenched, but those looking for widespread 1-2+” here will be sorely disappointed. Maybe at the south coast, but north of Providence don’t look for more than a half inch.

    1. Looks more and more likely that TK has not swung and missed with his forecast. When all is said and done he’ll have drilled a double up the gap.

      1. I would argue that if TK got this one right – having the courage yet again to stand his ground and take bad pitch after bad pitch from the models and tv mets – then he has actually has an in the park home run with this one. And to think last night I was thinking sac fly (as even if it ends up a monsoon tomorrow he sure as heck is teaching us all a ton) – but shame on me for doubting TK!

        1. Agreed. I’ve been burned nearly every time I’ve doubted TK. My “gap double” metaphor is too stingy. An inside-the-park homer is more apt.

        2. Well said, GBATT……hmmmm not sure the acronym is a good one

          Always nice to see you here and hope you are enjoying the summer

  26. 12z ECMWF has virtually no rain in Merrimack Valley, 1/4″ in BOS, 3/4″ here at the Storm HQ World Headquarters Compound, and 1″ roughly south of Route 44.

  28. Unfortunately not everyone going to get a good soaking. From what SAK said and here in CT with this tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Euro with a super tight rainfall gradient tomorrow. Very little in NW Hills to over 3″ in SE CT

    Someone is going to get crushed with rain. GFS showing warm cloud depths ~15kft! Not sure if it’s CT or a bit south of us

  29. Does the drought have an impact on whether we get more or less rain or even keep it from raining?

    1. More on a local scale, less so on a regional scale, but still it can have some impact, more on what would be forming in the area versus what would be moving into it.

  30. Flash Flood Watches up for most of CT all of RI and south shore Cape and Islands
    for tomorrow.

  31. I’m looking for honest opinions.

    A person in Sutton posted that she is concerned by neighbors who continue to use their sprinklers. She feels we must conserve. I have had that thought going through my mind also but also know that putting in a new lawn is horribly expensive.

    Question 1: If it is allowed to go dormant does it come back?
    Question 2: Should that matter? I am fearful that drought will become our new normal (I truly detest that term so apologize).

    Thank you for any and all input.

    I’m not even sure where we get our water in Sutton.

    1. Most grass will come back if it goes dormant. It may need a little help and that’s where I fall short of being qualified to give a good answer. Perhaps a lawn care person could help with this answer.

      Drought will not be the new normal. Droughts do occur in various parts of the country, and the world, and always have. We don’t see them as frequently as some locations, but we had a series of droughts in the 1970s and a couple more in the 1980s. They’re related to long term regimes which are related to the various circulations in both atmosphere and ocean. It’s quite complex.

      When it comes down to it, however, our water supply is more important than how green ones lawn is. 🙂

          1. I’m the one possessed about saving the lawn.
            Btw, there is no water Ban in the City of Boston.
            I can legally water as much as I want. I’m the one
            paying the water bill. 😀

            1. No ban here either that I am aware of. Do you also get water from quabbin?

              And this just makes me sad. I always had you to fall back on when my lawn turned to weeds …… sniff 🙁

              1. Boston is part of the MWRA and yes, the water comes from Quabbin and they have been getting some rain out there.

                The only reason I care about the lawn is because we paid lots of money to have what was left of the old dug up and a load of loam brought in and the entire lawn
                reseeded from scratch. That is why I am worried that if it goes brown that it may not come back like a mature lawn would.

      2. Thank you, TK. Your last paragraph pretty much said it all. I’m trying to figure where we get our water. Framingham got it from Quabbin which is just over 90% capaicity. I would absolutely agree drought may not be our new normal (which is why I said I dislike that term but couldn’t quickly think of another) for long but possibly for a while. Mac was always quick to point out that there is a difference between drought and water shortage. He warned of worldwide water shortage for years and he is being proven to be correct. I feel that we need to take the information seriously even though it may not be in my life. Even our coastal aquifers are being depleted regularly. It has less to do with drought and more to do with either overuse or pollution (which was where Mac came into the picture).

        I understand it is the post but it the sources it cites and not the messenger that matters 🙂

        https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/06/16/new-nasa-studies-show-how-the-world-is-running-out-of-water/

    2. Vicki,
      From my own experience; the answer to question 1. is yes and no 🙂 Scorched lawns may respond to watering, especially lawns of drought-resistant grass that are well established. But it’s a different story for new lawns, which are much more susceptible to drought, insects and disease once the roots become weakened.

      1. Thank you very much, shotime. Our lawn was struggling a bit when we moved in because the house had been vacant since the end of last summer. And it has a really sandy soil and absolutely no tree shade. Talk about three strikes. I really don’t want to reseed three quarters of an acre but then I’d rather adhere to TKs last paragraph. Wise man, our TK 😉

  32. Personally, I always think conserving energy and water is a good idea. But, that’s the figurative Calvinist in me. No, I’m not in favor of rigid rules regarding what one may and may not do. I’m also not a moralist. But, like a Dutch Calvinist in spirit I believe very much in the tragedy of the commons. If I were to selfishly use as many of the resources common to us all as I can for myself this may wind up harming me as well as my fellow citizens in the long run. All resources are scarce to one degree or another, and we’re in this together. I recognize full well that with recycling and renewable energy degrees of scarcity may diminish. Yet, the fact remains that we’re all subject to laws of supply and demand that are a function of relative scarcity.

    1. As always….well said, Joshua.

      Now JPD can explain to Mrs. OS and I can explain to my family who has been trying to finally keep a lawn green and weed free (organically). Although this year it is a bit like spitting into the wind (sorry, but that was visual that came to mind first) 😉

      1. Thanks, Vicki.

        I do understand people’s desire to keep their lawns and gardens green. I don’t advocate being spartan or a Luddite.

        With it so dry out there any saliva that comes out of our mouths will almost immediately evaporate upon contact with the ground. So, that won’t help our lawns, either, even if all Massachusetts residents collectively spat into the wind.

      2. I would use another metaphor there and the word to replace
        spitting begins with “p”. 😀

        2. Yes, and in our current state of drought no amount of p..sing on our lawns and gardens would help much, either, though it may change the pH level a bit (make it less acidic and more base).

        3. That is not working. The only thing that the p word does (thanks to the kids dog) is burn huge craters in the lawn 😉

      3. Agree with Joshua’s well stated comment, too!
        Could decorative pavers be the so-called lawns of the future?
        I, personally rarely water my lawn, except for the first year it was planted. But, I do water my flower and vegetable gardens!

      4. Vicki…The city of Boston does get its water from the Quabbin.

        Also, on a side note, I don’t ever recall any water restrictions issued for Boston.

        1. Not Boston, but I do remember bans being put into effect in the burbs back when I was a child.

          1. I believe that some towns issue restrictions even if there is a surplus. I never understood why.

  33. Regarding the water bans, I have seen a few posted in various towns around in my travels, but don’t ask me to name them because I cannot remember. 😉

    I know that Woburn does not have one, which is a different practice from my childhood when it seemed like the yearly question was “when will the water ban go into effect this year?”

      1. The only one we ever had in Framingham was in the 80s.

        It turns out that Sutton has a level 1 ban (odd/even and time sensitive) going into effect tomorrow. If I recall correctly, blackstone said Sutton does not typically have one which shows how bad it is getting.

    2. The Chelmsford Center Water District (which encompasses my neighborhood) is in Stage 3 water ban, which excludes all outside watering. None. Zilch. Nada.

      1. Wow – as much as I hate to see it, that would make my decision a whole lot more palatable to the kids after all of their hard work.

    3. We have a water ban almost all the time in North Reading. Two of our three wells were lost many years ago after being contaminated by GE. Since then we have to buy most of our water from Andover, which knows they have us over a barrel and charges us ridiculous rates. We are moving to the MWRA, and should be online with them by 2019!

  34. Quick peak at 18z NAM and won’t post so I was unsuccessful early but supercell composite values come close to Boston. Highest of that is across RI south shore Cape and Islands and pretty impressive helicity values. CAPE values are under 1,000.
    SPC does have far southern parts of SNE in marginal risk.

    1. Thank you shotime. That was the map I found and thought we did not have one. But someone on the Sutton site pointed me to the one going into effect tomorrow as I said above.

  36. Flash Flood Watch issued now for CT, RI and SE MA.

    TK – Does this mean we all get a widespread soaking after all?

    1. Absolutely not.

      It’s just a watch, and it’s out for the area most likely to see over 1 inch of rain over a several hour period.

  37. From NWS in Boston
    Our confidence w/ respect to heavy rain; 1-2″ amounts, locally higher 2-4″; psbl severe wx threats w/ t’storms

    This mentions with the graphic on there tweet tornado or water spout possible. Those would be far southern areas of SNE.

  38. 18z 4kNAM supercell composite values not as high and our further south than the 18z NAM. 18z 4k NAM keeps it southern RI and southeastern parts of MA. Highest values Long Island.

  40. I’m becoming more confident that the heavy rain area is going to be focused on the South Coast and possibly just a touch further north, but that much lighter amounts will fall in the general region from the Mass Pike northward.

    I have not checked the guidance yet as I was running around getting some things done, but I suspect the 4km NAM will depict how I expect this to play out. I’ll be checking shortly.

  41. yup, see below, posted at the same time. 😀

    I was extrapolating simmed radar. I guess not a good method. 😀

    1. There were heavy echoes on the sim that were a result of diurnal convection, which would not become part of the “area of rain”. The models yesterday (many of them) and then the GFS late to the party, was mistaking this convection as becoming part of the main event, through convective feedback. The 4km NAM should be the first to weed this out, as we are seeing.

      That is a further look into my reasoning for not budging on the forecast yesterday when the models were getting out the firehose.

      That said, this is still not nearly a lock that it pans out like the 4km says. I just think it’s leaning that way.

  44. TK…what if any rain can we expect in our area between now and say 3pm tomorrow? Thanks!

  46. SSK it looks like you have one more surge to go through. That sea breeze boundary is sitting just southwest of you. But it should lose support soon.

    1. That thing is hanging on literally right on the beach. 2 miles north, west, south, NOTHING. It’s like it knows you are there. It really, honestly should be done soon. 😀

  48. My daughter just accused me of being tricky. She was reading the opinions on lawns and said…”mom, if you say dad said there will be a water shortage, do you really think anyone will disagree with his view?” Sorry. Hadn’t thought of that but she did make me laugh

    So for what it is worth, she suggested I tell everyone how mac wanted us to vote 🙂 🙂 🙂

    On a serious note, has anyone noticed less mosquitoes and many more dragonflies?

    1. More dragonflies = less mosquitoes, since d’s dine on the m’s in the early evening. 😉

      1. I do know they eat mosquitoes but we have more than I have ever seen and in more colors I knew there were. Daughter in Uxbridge has a lot too but she also has mosquitoes.

        Just odd

  50. Dew points at some of the offshore buoys off the mid Atlantic states are approaching 80 degrees. Water temperature near Block Island 75 degrees. Looks like a lot of juice for any possible convection near the south coast tomorrow. I’m located near TF Greene airport. Love the blog.

  51. I live ten minutes from there maybe I will have the pleasure meeting you and some of the other great people here on the blog.

    1. I’ll be there, along with many of our favorite TV guys and gals, as well as members of the NWS and many students from colleges in the region, among others. Our friend SAK on the blog here is involved in the planning of that awesome event. He and others put in many hours of work to make that conference what it is. It costs a bit to register but it’s completely worth it!

  52. 00z NAM is in and pretty much confirms the original idea of South Coast rain and nothing important other than isolated downpours anywhere else. May not even see all that much in the Mass Pike region.

  53. Here is your 00z 4km NAM precipitation forecast. The heavier splotches north of the main rain area are isolated thunderstorms and will not cover an area as large as depicted here.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016072900/nam4km_apcpn_neus_12.png

    With the exception of very isolated locations, and possibly the South Coast, there will be a whole lot of not much in terms of rainfall from this system.

    Also, I will be making an adjustment to the extended range as I’m seeing some evidence of a 7 to 10 day switch to cooler/drier weather for a while starting sometime around August 8. This does not mean that the outlook for August has changed. We knew there would be an interruption to the overall regime at some point. I think heat returns after that.

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