Friday Forecast

103 Comments

6:45AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 29-AUGUST 2)…
A cold front dropping through the region and washing out and low pressure moving eastward and passing south of the region will combine for a muggy and somewhat wet day, with mostly light rain with embedded heavier showers during this morning and early afternoon. A shield of heavier rain will skirt the South Coast. Additional isolated showers and a slight risk of thunderstorms this afternoon as clouds try to break and the atmosphere remains somewhat unstable. High pressure builds in Saturday with a nice mid summer day of warmth, lower humidity, and a fair amount of sun. Clouds make a comeback Sunday but any rain threat is likely be limited to just isolated showers as high pressure tries to hold on, keeping most of the moisture from a disturbance to the south and west of the area. The struggle between this disturbance to the south and high pressure to the north will likely continue during the first couple of days of August, gradually won by the high pressure area which slowly sinks southward over the region.
TODAY: Overcast through early afternoon with periods of light rain but also embedded scattered heavier showers, also a period of moderate to heavy rain near the South Coast mid morning to early afternoon. Breaking clouds mid afternoon on with scattered to isolated showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 72-80. Wind variable becoming mostly E 5-15 MPH then shifting more to the N late in the day.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-68. Wind light NW.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Less humid. Highs 80-88, warmest interior areas. Wind light N with coastal sea breezes.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 62-70, warmest urban areas. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers favoring the South Coast. Highs 78-86, coolest coastal areas. Wind light variable to light SE.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 60-68, warmest urban areas. Highs 77-85, coolest coast.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68, warmest urban areas. Highs 78-86, coolest coast.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)…
Increasingly warm to hot and more humid August 3-6 with mainly dry weather other than isolated showers/storms by August 6. Scattered showers/thunderstorms, warm/humid August 7.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)…
Cooling trend but mainly dry weather dominating.

103 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Looks gruesome on radar, but here at the surface NOT much happening.
    Pavement under the trees at my house remains DRY, so that tells you how
    much rain has fallen, or rather NOT fallen.

    Chalk up another WIN for TK!!

    GREAT forecast TK!

    The TV mets have EGG on their face.

    I am still hopeful for a bit more rain this morning before it totally quits, but
    CLEARLY it is not going to be that heavy rain the TV were touting. 😀

  4. What do you know? It’s actually raining here. Not super hard, but actual rain that
    I can see out the window. SO that’s what it looks like? WOW!

  6. This thing should be about wrapped up by noon with only isolated showers popping up in an unstable atmosphere this afternoon. Perhaps a downpour with thunder in a few select locations.

  8. Even to our south (CC and Islands) rain is not nearly as heavy as predicted by everyone else except for our very own big cat (TK). The axis of heavy rain is mostly over Long Island and points south and southwest of Long Island.

    1. Hmmm where did I hear that before?

      WHW is the ONLY place to come for ACCURATE weather! 😀

      I can’t stress enough how pleased I am to have the opportunity to be part
      of this great blog.

      Thank you TK!

  9. Steady light-moderate rain in all of eastern MA at this time.

    Does 0.25 – 0.40 sound about right for Logan TK?

    1. HA HA. Your’ kidding me.

      Logan will be lucky to make .2 imho.

      Curious to see TK’s assessment of that.

      1. Well, the radar does look impressive at least to me. I am speaking on extreme relative terms, of course.

        1. Doesn’t look impressive to me:

          https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ma/boston/box/

          Only on the far South shore does it look impressive.

          btw, did NWS ever get that part and fix the radar?
          I am wondering if the display is still 10DBZ too high?

          Curious.

          In any case, whatever the radar is showing, it is NOT
          translating to what is happening on the surface.

          I have NOT seen anything even remotely resembling
          heavy rain, let alone even moderate.

    2. I was thinking under 0.25 for most including Logan, maybe around 0.50 for the South Coast. Isolated heavier anywhere.

  10. Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    What a bust! Atrocious job by computer models with exception of high res 4km NAM/WRFs

    GFS and Euro ensembles worthless as well. GEFS especially were about as bad as you can get

    1. It’s only a bust if one took the models verbatim during the erroneous runs and went with it. 😉

      1. But those of us here were WELL informed and KNEW what
        to really expect. I am in AWE of the quality and accuracy of
        your forecasts!

        This event has impressed me more than any other and there have been many.

    1. “When in drought, leave it out” is a good forecasting rule of thumb.

      Barry Burbank often says “all systems fail in a drought”.

  12. Fair skies in western mass. Judging by the satellite, it Looks like we may have a nice sunny day later. Maybe the sun will destabilize the atmosphere and create isolated storms

  13. Spring through Fall I regularly check into this blog, but don’t get involved as with Winter. With that said, I must concur with the fabulous job TK does with this blog, there is nobody better. I don’t even check the main news outlets for my weather anymore!

  15. FWIW, the 12Z 4KM NAM has Boston in with .04 inch from 7AM forward.
    Not sure how much they actually received prior to 7AM?? Looks pretty accurate to me.

  16. RAIN is done in the Boston area.

    Already convection is showing up to our North and West. 😀

    1. A few good downpours will be out there this afternoon, but coverage about 5%. 😉

      1. I’m hoping for one to be right on top of an area about
        5.5 miles due SouthWest of Logan. 😀

  19. A shout out to SAK, long time friend of mine, who should be recognized for a great forecast on this system and his great blog!

    Sometime we may disagree on the forecast, but we’ll always be colleagues and not competitors….well maybe a friendly contest now and then. 🙂

      1. Drought’s over where I am. Massive street flooding. Nobody heeded the call from NWS for flash floods, and now they’re paddling away in makeshift kayaks through the streets of Chinatown. Drains just couldn’t keep up with the deluge of water.

        1. ROTFLMAO!!!

          Good one Joshua. Gotta love those NWS flash flood warnings!!!

          Man, the NWS know how to CRY WOLF!!

  21. Blackstone….
    Question on the weather station if I may.

    You said there was an internet bridge. My question is: Does the actual display
    unit itself have to be near the router?

    In other words, I want the display unit in a different room from where the router
    is located?

    Will that work, or do the display and internet bridge have to be located near or next
    to each other?

    Many thanks for your input. Much appreciated.

    1. Dave,

      The display on mine is independent of the bridge. You don’t need the internet to get the display to work. My display is in the living room. The bridge is plugged into the router in the office.
      All the bridge does is allow the station to talk to the app on your phone or iPad.

      1. Perfect! Thank you. It just wasn’t clear to me in the specifications they had online. Your set up is EXACTLY what mine would be.

        So far, this looks like the one I’ll purchase.

        I’m checking out a couple of more.

  22. HRRR and RAP keep most IF not ALL convection North and West of Boston
    for this afternoon. It’s getting pretty sunny here now. Hope it is not too late.
    Here’s hoping for some of that convection to move into Boston later on.

  23. .05″ here in Wrentham. Drought over folks! The worst short range bust by the global guidance, ECMWF in particular, that I have ever seen, ever.

    TK, I echo all the others here, your forecasting skills are second to none for our area. Of course everyone misses a forecast here and there, but I would take your word every time. SAK as well, glad you’re blogging with us.

      1. Yes we do have GREAT forecasters; but we also cannot forgot those who keep us updated with current links and opinions and explanations and expertise and the patience of Job that it takes for people like me to understand what everything means.

        Ya know that old saying….it takes a village and we have one heck of a village here thanks to TK who keeps it all going.

  24. Just for the record, the radar I was looking at was the AccuWeather.com site. I guess from now on, I will have to take it with a HUGE grain of salt. 😉

    I use it because it is very convenient for me. Oh well.

  25. Bright and SUNNY here.

    Logan dew point is still a robust 70! Plenty of fuel for storms,

    However, the damn airport still has an East wind with temp 77.

    I do “think” it is warmer here at the office and at home.

      1. A tad more south that due east but flag across the street has been out straight to the west/southwest for a bit. That was the flag pole that cracked in half in that storm just before we left for vacation. I have to say I was thrilled to see they had replaced it as it is a great way to judge how windy and the direction.

        1. Sorry – ENE. I’m still having some trouble figuring out each angle. I do know the east as the sun rises in my eyes in the morning and that is where the wind is coming from 🙂

      2. Gradient wind. Not sea breeze. Low pressure south, high pressure north. I had east wind in the forecast today shifting north later.

  27. The little bit of convection out there, appears to be slowly drifting almost due SOUTH
    to SSE. HIGHLY doubt any of it ever makes it to Boston.

    2. South to southeast was the forecast direction for the PM convection today, in a prevailing flow behind the departing low. It will all be low-topped as it is warm aloft.

    1. Yes, and the ones who are 50 miles east of Nantucket are still drinking. It’s happy hour for them.

  29. Nantucket got a nice shot of heavy rain for a while – the only place in southern New England with above normal rainfall this year. 😉

    2. Technically, this statement is not quite true. There is a little sliver in extreme NW CT and adjacent SW MA that is slightly above normal as well.

  31. TK, your point on Nantucket rainfall (above average) is an interesting one. We haven’t had many lows nearby, but the latest low as well as a few previous ones veered east/northeast off the mid-Atlantic coast. Like in winter, these storms barely impact New England except our extreme south and southeast coast as well as the Islands, and in particular Nantucket. I’m wondering if these Atlantic storms continued their east/northeast trajectory and wound up impacting Ireland and the British Isles where well above normal rainfall has occurred for quite some time. It would imply lows tracking just south of the Gulfstream at a certain point. Has this been the pattern?

    1. A couple of them have gotten involved in northwestern Europe’s weather but several have not. Most of the rainfall in that area was generated much closer to where it fell.

      1. Thank you, TK. So, perhaps the persistent `Icelandic low’ (south of Iceland) is the culprit more often than lows that traverse the Atlantic.

        1. Sometimes, but again it depends on the pattern. That particular feature has not been very pronounced recently, which is more typical of summer anyway.

  32. Had a field meeting with several utility companies this AM for a project in Southington CT. Was seriously considering canceling it yesterday after the flood watch went up but decided not to based on TK’s forecast and after looking at the radar trends last night. Rain had already ended and the sun was peaking out by the time we were out there. I will echo everyone’s words here – it was a terrific forecast TK. The NWS and local mets here all pretty much blew it.

  33. In fact, BDL managed to hit 90 this PM after the sun came out extending the heat wave to 9 straight days. If we hit 90 tomorrow (very possible), we tie the all-time record for longest heat wave in Hartford! (10 days set back in the mid 90’s).

  34. TK, do you have any thoughts on the weather over the Atlantic between NYC and Bermuda Sunday night through Wednesday? Looks like a trough wants to stall out over the ocean during that time period. Hoping it doesn’t have a major impact on our cruise out there.

    1. It does look a bit showery, but at the moment I’m optimistic that it won’t have a huge impact.

  35. Saw some discussion on what radar was the best. I use Radarscope: http://stormtrack.org/community/pages/RadarScope/

    This is the one most professionals use, so it’s very reliable. It does take 2 minutes to set up, you have to click on the 2nd icon from the left on the bottom, then find the KBOX radar on the map and click on it. Then change the radar setting to “SuperRes Reflectivity Tilt 1”.

    It’s much easier to do than it sounds, and worth it. You can also get a velocity radar, 1-hr surface rainfall, echo tops, and correlation coefficient(dual-pol).

    1. Radarscope is tremendous. A must for any weather geek. Well worth the price and much more, and as you say many professionals use it.

      1. I have the app but I think I’m not educated enough as RadarUS seems more intuitive to me. I’ll keep trying with RadarScope and see if I can get used to it

  36. If it is going to be this warm we may as well tie that consecutive days at or above 90.

  37. Kudos to TK and SAK on the forecast for very little rain ….. Also seems that this rain that missed you is also missing Cape Breton now tomorrow, which is good for my wife’s cousin’s wedding. Yes, 2 weekends in a row with weddings.

    Very warm pattern in Atlantic Canada too, warm and humid. But it’s been good for outside activities.

  38. Back home. It’s always great to get away but it’s nice to come back weird right. Joe stayed up there till the morning so it’s a date night out to dinner . Pool party here tomorrow.

  39. TK/SAK, outstanding job for holding your stance and using true meteorology and not just the models alone. We are lucky to have you both here and thank you for this blog TK. I know it takes a lot of your time and we all appreciate it!

  41. Thanks for the kind words today guys. As I always say to people who tell me I had a good forecast “I get paid to be right”. A good forecast saves our customers money and keeps them happy.

    Vicki – I made the same point about needing a tropical to break the drought a few days ago. It’s not always how we break droughts in the summer, but more often than not, it’s the only way.

    And while we’re talking about tropicals, I wrote another blog post this evening about how the tropics are getting active again. I originally wrote it for my employer’s blog, and then copied it into my own. So, if you’re interested, there are two places you can read it:

    1. http://www.hometownforecastservice.com/the-tropics-are-getting-active-again/

    2. https://stormhqblog.wordpress.com/2016/07/29/the-tropics-are-getting-active-again/

  42. Well, I knew since my parents were going to be in NYC it was going to rain. It rained pretty good down here on Nantucket Till about 3pm

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