Saturday Forecast

51 Comments

7:48AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 30-AUGUST 3)…
A bit of a split decision this weekend as high pressure controls today and the weather is quite nice for outdoor activities. Though Sunday will not be a wash-out by any stretch, much more cloudiness will prevail and a few episodes of showers are likely as high pressure to the north and weak low pressure to the south wage a “quiet” battle. This will likely continue Monday into Tuesday, before warmth and humidity become more noticeable by Wednesday.
TODAY: Sunshine much of the time. More clouds late. Highs 78-83 coast, 83-88 interior. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Risk of showers after midnight. Lows 62-67 except 67-72 urban areas. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy. Episodes of scattered showers. Highs 73-78 coast, 78-83 interior. Wind light E.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 62-69, warmest urban areas. Highs 75-83, coolest coast.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Lows 62-69, warmest urban areas. Highs 77-85, coolest coast.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70, warmest urban areas. Highs 78-87, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 4-8)…
Heat and humidity dominant August 4-6 with only a few isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly August 6. A period of showers/thunderstorms August 7 leading to cooler/drier weather by August 8, based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 9-13)…
Below normal temperatures early in the period recover to near to above normal late in the period. Mainly dry weather.

51 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Thanks, TK. I have said it before and I say it again – not only do you run a great blog but you are always spot-on with your weather forecasts. I may watch and like certain other mets. on tv but but I always look to your predictions. Thank you for this blog. And to SK, too.

  2. Beautiful morning. The “teasing rain” we had yesterday morning had all the birds outside atwitter – they loved it. It wasn’t much but it got the ground and pavements wet. I know we won’t get much rain tomorrow but I hope we get something – lately, Sudbury seems to get in-between storms. Last evening was an example. It got dark but we might have gotten a few drops – heavier rain was north and south of us.

    1. Hi rainshine. Had my three year old grandsons attention also. He was completely fascinated watching it and talked about it all day….as if he had never seen it before. Definitely says how seldom we see if it it is a new thing for a child

  5. With the discussion here rhe other day about hurricanes and being overdue, Eric had this on FB today

    “The tropics tend to heat up in August, so here’s a wild fact for you. The last time Florida was hit by a hurricane, Twitter didn’t exist, FB required a valid college email, YouTube was 8 months young, and the iPhone was still 2 years away. Wilma in 2005. Also the last time a Major Cat 3+ hurricane struck the U.S.”

    I suspect they may be overdue as well

    1. This makes me wonder when and what was Sandy? Probably a lower Cat with the terrible water surge. It was Cat 5 in terms of water!
      I guess I am a bit of a Luddite. The only technology I use from that list is youtube, tho I do love my flip phone 🙂

      Oh, and thank you, TK.

      1. Sandy was unique because not too often do storms track westward there, driving a “pile” of water into such a vulnerable area. It all lined up just so, to make that happen.

        1. No. The track of Sandy was from the southern Caribbean northward through the eastern Bahamas, off the East Coast until it hooked left into the NY/NJ area.

            1. Sandy was also declared “post-tropical” just before landfall, so officially, it was not a hurricane when it hit the US.

  6. I failed to note above, and should have…
    Sandy was NOT a tropical cyclone when it made landfall. It had lost all tropical characteristics by then. The things that made Sandy stand out was not that it was some new type of storm above all others. It was NOT. Sandy was a late-season tropical that then transitioned to post-tropical in a synoptic environment in late October / early November that was ready to support not only a strong storm but a very large (areal coverage) storm. Then, given that a very low percentage of low pressure areas, no matter what size/strength, take a track such as that, and this one happened to be one that did, taking into account the length of time over water (fetch) and the direction of it – into a basically triangular shaped zone which in itself contained vulnerable smaller areas, as well as over building and over population … Well, you didn’t need a pure category 3, 4, or 5 tropical cyclone for a disaster.

    That is the story behind the story of why Sandy was so impactful.

    1. Well said. I think a good many people think it was a hurricane when it reached shore which I can understand. It may be a distant cousin to the perfect storm which also, as I recall, was the merging of systems. I do know the center of the perfect storm didn’t reach land but the damage was extreme nonetheless

      1. The problem with labels is that many people see all or nothing. No two storms are identical and no single storm fits neatly into “it can only do this and not this”.

        There are too many variables.

        1. I like the terms superstorm and perfect storm. Seems most did damage when either before or after being classified as a hurricane

          1. Any storm can do damage, depending on the circumstances.

            I suppose if you want to get picky, every single storm does “damage” as it deconstructs something, ranging from the wide damage of a Sandy or Andrew to knocking a leaf off a try or flattening an ant hill. 🙂

            The point I’m making is, storms are just atmospheric processes with varying impact on things natural and man-made. The scope of impact is determined by factors nearly too many to count, and all we can do is observe it within the context we have while trying to keep an open mind when trying to understand it, and hopefully react as we’re supposed to when trying to survive it. 🙂

            1. Thanks TK. I do understand your point. I just find it interesting that both sandy and the perfect storm at one point reached hurricane status and in both the damage was severe….sandy prior to the majority of very severe damage and the perfect storm after.

              And you are right that each storm of course has its own characteristics which only makes sense. Hugo for instance cut a path from charleston to NC. Amazingly, still strong enough to produce tornadic damage in Charlotte. Last time we drove down there….maybe 10 years ago…there were still signs of that path well inland in NC.

              I suspect it is the individuality of each storm that is what attracts so many to “weather” to begin with…..they are fascinating.

      2. The “Perfect Storm” was actually a combination of an extratropical system near the Maritimes and the remains of Hurricane Grace. The extratropical system pulled in the remants of Grace, which, combined with a strong high to the north, resulted in incredible winds and seas. As this system drifted southwestward (unusual, but not rare), it moved over the Gulf Stream, acquired tropical characteristics, and became a tropical system itself. By this point, it was a few hundred miles south of the Cape, most of the Northeast had been battered by the winds and tides for 2-3 days, and the system was expected to head back out to sea, so the National Hurricane Center decided not to give it a name. They didn’t want to confuse the public.

        Side note, I was a student at ULowell at this point in time. As part of a research project, myself, another student, and our professor, Dr. Frank Colby, were launching weather balloons from the roof of one of MIT’s building’s in Cambridge in the middle of that storm. It was quite the experience.

        1. I was hitting pop flies at a final fall baseball practice in Cambridge. Hitting them to the middle infielders and they were blowing out to the CF warning track. Unbelievable.

        2. Thanks SAK. I remember that too. I followed the storm closely as it greatly affected an area near and dear to my heart. I have not looked into it recently but seem to also remember it reached hurricane status on 11/1. I never did understand why it would confuse rhe public but in the end it doesn’t matter

          1. The storm had been battering the coast for 2 days. The damage had been done. If you tell the public at that point that a hurricane has formed 200 miles to the south, it won’t matter which way it’s going, people will expect things to get even worse. Since it was expected to move out to sea and weaken without any more impacts to land, NHC made the call to not name it.

            1. Knowing how many can take something and blow it out of the water, I understand. Somehow I believe hyping rather than not properly explaining has caused a sad amount of dumbing down.

  7. Regarding the next few days, the last couple lines of this paragraph of the NWS discussion made me chuckle:

    .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/…
    What looks to be a series of short wave trofs moving about a slowly
    progressive long wave upper trof will initiate a series of weak
    waves along the front stalled south of the area for tonight through
    Sunday. The pattern looks conducive to at least modest overrunning
    in an environment depicted with deep moisture from Bufkit soundings
    and precipitable waters around 1.5 inches. Due to at least some of
    the area in a drought, we are taking a conservative approach on both
    POPs and QPF forecasts. Also, models appear to be influenced by some
    convective feedback.

    1. Yes, local TV mets this evening should open with a verbatim reading of this NWS statement. Bound to be a ratings booster.

    1. IT sure doesn’t look as if it can miss. But, like you, I’m not betting on anything of late. There is a little something sitting just SW of Hartford that seems to be relatively still and getting somewhat stronger.

  9. Did anyone see the movie the perfect storm? I always intended to and never did. The conversation today reminded me of that. I just don’t know if it was a good movie

  10. I would love to see that rain that is causing a weather delay at the PGA Championship come into SNE.

  11. I am hoping. Just about all of CT with the exception of far northwest CT in moderate drought.

    1. Yup, wrote about that last night. All depends on if it can form a low-level circulation, and where that goes. Too close to the islands and it does nothing. Stay south of the islands, then we’ve got a ballgame. Both the EPS and GEFS think that one, if it develops, stays south of the islands and heads for the Yucatan, then the Bay of Campeche and eventually NE Mexico. A few of the GEFS members blow it up pretty good too. What’s more worrisome is the Canadian model. It’s not impressed and kills it off within a few days. That model takes every thunderstorm in the Atlantic and blows it up into a Category 2. If it’s NOT doing anything with this, then I’d better keep an eye on it.

  13. BDL has hit 90 again today tying the all-time record longest heat wave of 10 days set back in 1995. Looks to be very hot again by end of next week. Will be interesting to see how many 90 degree days we end up with by end of summer.

  14. Mark I believe we either tied or broke for number of 90 degree days in July. The record was 16 in 1955 and 1963.

  16. I’m going to be in North Conway next week for “vacation”. Any idea about the weather for Tursday up that way? We’ll be at Storyland where I am forecasting long lines, overpriced food, and at least one tantrum per kid, but am curious if it will be a nice day weather wise…

    1. I continue to be jealous of everyone’s trips to a place I love dearly. Enjoy. Take fishing poles and head up outside of Jackson to the Ellis River and relax. No crowds there 🙂

  17. RIP Dave Schwartz. I don’t watch much TWC but from what I saw of him he seemed like a great guy with a passion for weather. Will be missed.

    Getting a very brief but moderate to heavy shower here in Wrentham. Looking at radar to the west and south you would think we were in for a drenching tonight. The latest HRRR run is actually pretty promising from Worcester north and west. Maybe some needed relief for some areas.

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