Monday Forecast

83 Comments

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 1-5)…
Series of disturbances passing to the south lasts through early Tuesday. Though some areas have received a period of moderate or heavy rain since Sunday, the region overall has not seen much beneficial rain from this and the drought goes on. High pressure dominates by the middle of the week, and the heat builds later in the week.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind light E.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 60-68. Wind light E.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy but a clearing trend later in the day. Highs 76-83. Wind light E shifting to N late.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68. Highs 78-88, coolest Cape Cod.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Lows 62-70. Wind 80-92, coolest Cape Cod.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of late-day thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 64-72. Highs 82-94, coolest Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 6-10)…
Timing favors showers/thunderstorms early August 6 then a drying trend, followed by drier and cooler weather for much of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 11-15)…
Warmer to hotter again. Limited shower and storm risks.

83 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. Longshot, glad I went 3 weeks ago. That is the most shower/thunderstorm action they have had in a while with this disturbance.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Did you say the drought goes on?

    Watched Mike Wankum last night because channel 4 was running over.

    He showed Boston getting hit with good rain. At the same time he said some of the rain areas were diminishing. You think?

    Boston ended up with a TRACE of rain overnight and a whopping 0.15 inch
    yesterday. SO, yes, I’d say the drought goes on. 😀 😀 😀

    PATHETIC!

  5. Thanks TK !

    We’ve been sitting in Don Kent’s summer polar air for 2 days now, superb !

    Sunny and 80F by day, mid 50s at night. High cloudiness on the southernmost sky.

  7. Occasionally watched doppler radar yesterday and even in middle of night. I kept seeing lots of rain moving east and it looked like west of Worcester was getting some decent rain. But once it hit 495 – it disintegrated which I think was forecasted anyway. So disappointing. Sudbury did get some moderate rain briefly around noon yesterday. And ‘though it is sticky out with not much sun – at least it’s not 90 degrees. That’s coming later in week. I wonder how long that will stick around.

  8. Thank you, TK.

    Yes, Rt. 495 has been as good at keeping rain from moving eastward to the coast as John Hannah was at protecting Steve Grogan.

  9. My husband and I drove a group of teens from our church to a camp in the Adirondacks yesterday. We hit many pockets of heavy rain from about Westfield up to Saratoga. Things were much greener out that way for sure.

      1. As in “It’s a Wonderful Life”.

        I didn’t realize there was a real honest to goodness town
        called Pottersville.

        I know the movie took place in the fictitious town of
        Bedford Falls, but Pottersville was the fictional “alternate reality” city featured in the film.

        Learn something new every day. 😀

        1. After they found out Potter stole the money from Uncle Billy, I wanted them to go beat the hell out of Potter. Kind of like that old SNL skit where Jimmy Stewert (Dana Carvey) went and turned over his wheel chair and beat him up.

  11. Look at this 12Z 4KM NAM radar loop

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/animations/12Z-20160801_NAM4KMNE_prec_radar.gif

    I find it mesmerizing. It seems to separate and some move East and some move
    West. probably just a function of the way the convection sets up, but it is fascinating
    to watch.

    Here is the latest HRRR loop for comparison. It has a similar look to it.

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/animations/13Z-20160801_HRRRNE_prec_radar.gif

    AND, it must be pointed out, they both leave BOSTON in the dust. Little or NO RAIN!

  12. Purchased the Accurite Home Weather station yesterday.

    Found it available at a site that was $50 less than it was on Amazon.com. 😀
    Amazon is not always the best deal out there.

      1. Will find out soon enough. The best feature is the smart phone
        access and the internet bridge. Not to mention, I get a rain
        gauge out of it. Because of the trees, a decent wind speed/direction is nearly impossible. 😀

  13. Afternoon WHW fans. Been MIA for a while busy with work and a basement reno that is taking up every bit of my free time. Was out on the west coast for a business trip last week, SF Bay area and was treated to some beautiful weather, 68-72 every day, mid-50’s at night. Nice place but would never in a million years want to live out there. My company offered me a job out there and I said no thanks. Aside from needing and craving changeable weather, I did not expect the level of homelessness and filth I saw. And to boot, I will never ever complain about the traffic in and around Boston or the T ever again. Again, beautiful place to visit for a short time, but I’m so glad to be back here and living in this area.

        1. Fat chance of that. It is so frustrating looking at that
          HRRR showing convection North, South and West of us, but NOTHING here! Oh, it does show a little blip here and there, but that’s probably cumulus clouds. 😀

    1. That should come as no surprise. There was never going to be a ton of rain with this series of disturbances, only spot areas that received “significant” amounts, and I mean isolated areas.

      1. It was just flabbergasting to watch the radar.
        There was rain out there, just NONE for here. 😀

  15. It’s 3:18 PM and the trade deadline is 4PM.

    No Red Sox trade deal for Chris Sale so far. Will it happen?

    Probably not, as I suspect it will be like many of the Celtics NON-DEALS.

    Hope not.

    We shall see.

    1. 12 minutes to go. NOTHING yet. We shall see. Not holding my breath.
      But then again, perhaps I am.

      1. I will say this. The Sox looked dead in the water yesterday. Yet, Pedroia bailed them out big time. What a comeback. And what a clutch hit with 2 outs in the 9th.

      2. OK, 4:01PM

        UNLESS, there is a late announcement or some shenanigans, the deal was NOT completed.

        1. Nevertheless, they did pick up an excellent lefty reliever: Fernando Abad. Basically stole him from the Twins. I’ve seen him pitch. He’s MUCH better than the guys we’ve been seeing out of the pen lately.

          1. Agree. Wish we could have acquired Sale.
            Oh well, IF Price could just step up, they would be OK. I fear that isn’t happening.

            1. Don’t worry, Price looks like he’ll bounce back. He’s been one of the most unluckiest pitchers in all of baseball according to Fangraphs stats.

              1. Unluckiest?

                You are drinking the Kool-Aide.
                The man has been abysmal, period.

                Yes, once in a while he throws in a good game, but he pitched just well enough to lose. I don’t care if it were 1-0, 2-1 or 3-2, it’s still a loss.

                A $30 million dollar pitcher is paid to WIN those type of games.

                IMHO, the Sox totally and completely pissed away their money.

        2. Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeyman 9m9 minutes ago Jersey City, NJ
          chris sale and jose quintana stay with chisox

  16. RE: San Fran,

    I’m with Ace. It’s ok to visit, but….
    Traffic is worse than here, the subway is pretty non existent, and it’s a filthy place.
    Im not one that needs changeable weather so much, and I abhor the winters here, but I gotta say for 7.5-8 months out of the year (April-mid November), its more desirable than most areas. I like san diego, but the summers are pitiful, really. No heat unless you go east. Boston is clean and relative crime free compared to most cities its size, has a decent summer with a mix of HHH and comfortable weather, beautiful fall, and winter is what it is. Spring needs work, but that is what it is too.
    Now if I could figure out how to live down south Dec-March, and still keep my job, I’d be really happy.

    1. Reasonable assessment.

      On the other hand, I love the Winter, but cannot stand the Spring (most years, there are rare exceptions). 😀

      1. I just don’t like cold. Don’t like snow either, but I can deal with it. If it were a winter with highs in the mid 30’s and lows say 23-28, ok.
        And yes, spring is absolutely the worst. More specifically, equinox to mothers Day. Those 2 months can be pretty miserable, at least for me.

        1. I absolutely LOVE the snow. Don’t even mind shoveling it.
          Weird I know, but being the New Englander I am, I can’t
          help it. Given that, I’d prefer highs in the mid 30s and lows in the low 20’s. But that isn’t the case, so I’ll happily put up with the occasional colder weather.

          Nothing beats a clear and Calm Winter’s night with 2 feet of snow on the ground. Something special about that, even if the temp drops below 0.

          I’ve ice skated in sub zero and I have skiied in 14 below with NW wind at about 25-30 mph. As long as one is enjoying themselves, temperature doesn’t matter. 😀
          (and of course dressed for the weather)

    2. Agree – good assessment. I will take all seasons, all types of weather and I do love this area of the world.

  17. 73.7 with a 66 DP and minimal wind. The overcast is so thick/heavy that you would think some water could be squeezed out of it.

    We lost our water for a bit today and, being new to the area, wondered if we were actually on well and our well had gone dry. I called the water dept and the very nice woman said they thought it would be a while. Off we went to get water and when we return the water had been restored. In Framingham we would have been lucky to have it return with 24 hours. Nice small town living 🙂

    1. My wife is SO SICK AND TIRED of this facuckta humidity.
      We had to cancel plans for Saturday evening because she simply could not
      make it. She was about ready to pass out and that is with 3 ACs running.

      1. Gosh I am sorry to hear that, Dave. I never mind when fall arrives!! I will wish it along a bit for your wife!!

          1. If I have to pic seasons, Autumn is my favorite. The weather is energizing. It holds the promise of the holidays to come. Windows can be wide open……

            ahhhhhhhhh

  18. Boston’s a world-class city in many ways. I don’t claim to know many cities very well, but have been to quite a few here and abroad and lived in several here and abroad. Boston’s relatively clean, relatively crime-free, and believe it or not has a great climate compared to many world-class cities. Take Paris, London, and Amsterdam, for example. Nice cities in many ways (though dirtier than Boston, and more petty crime than Boston, especially Paris and Amsterdam). But, gray and dreary compared to Boston.

  19. I understand your wife’s pain, JPDave. The humidity gets to me, too. It’s draining. My rule of thumb is that after the first week of September we’re essentially rid of most of the heat and humidity. So, 5 more weeks to go. I know what TK will say – it can get hot and humid in September. He’s right. But, there’s a different feel to September heat, especially once we’re into the second week.

    1. In general, as far as I am concerned, it is done by 8/10 (yes, I understand there are exceptions, like last year for example. It was brutal on 8/15).

      And if it gets HHH after that date, it is not quite the same feel as
      June and July.

      We do get HHH weather in September, but not all that often.

      It was so bad this weekend, that it was bothering me and it usually does
      not do so.

      1. I agree with you both. I don’t mind the weather but I also don’t come close to having the energy I have in cooler weather. To me the cold is invigorating. It also feels cleaner. As you know, I’ve always thought of August as the point where we start to see some changes. I won’t repeat that maybe that isn’t so much the case any more as the seasons are shifting……..oh dear, I repeated it anyway 😈

        2. I’m afraid for this season anyway, the HHH weather could linger for a long time.

          I can remember a few Labor Day Weekends that were brutally HHH. So it can certainly happen.

          I am hoping it does not.

  21. I have a new weather term to add to the glossary. Three year old grandson is now resorting to the radar rather than the window to determining if it is wiggling.

    Wiggling is his term for drizzling

  22. I short-changed you a bit on this 1st day of August, a grey Monday, and rather cool in comparison to some recent days, as my update was quite abbreviated above. But I’ll make up for that a little bit with some thoughts about upcoming days, weeks, months. Yes I know it’s hard to long range forecast, but think of this as my best shot at an off-season update… 😉

    Recently…
    Remember back to the coolish June, which wasn’t really that cool since temperatures averaged right around normal. It was just exceptionally dry, or better yet, lacking humidity. The exceptionally dry phrase is better applied to our precipitation situation, which remains in fairly serious deficit, which is expected to grow for some time to come. When we got into July, we saw a pattern shift to a more zonal flow but with ridging often far north enough while centered over the west central to central US to toss some heat our way on occasion, culminating in a heatwave of about a week recently. We broke that and have been in a cooler interlude for a few days while a series of weak low pressure areas travel to our south while a weak high banks itself up to the north. Although some wet weather has been “around”, that is, most of it hanging in areas to the west with the exception of isolated heavier showers forming in a few locations further east, the overall pattern has remained generally quite dry.

    Currently…
    Well I really covered this in the last couple lines above, but it looks like only isolated showers tonight and tomorrow morning from the current series of systems, and by tomorrow afternoon, we’ll have broken back to sunshine in most of the region.

    Rest of this week…
    Wednesday through Friday will see a slow build of heat and humidity, and late Friday MAY feature a few thunderstorms depending on the behavior of a pre-frontal trough ahead of a cold front that will be to our northwest. The actual front will likely fly through here during the first half of the day Saturday with the muggies and a few thunderstorms or at least showers in the area. By late Saturday, drier air will be inbound but it should be rain-free. A little disturbance may bring some cloudiness at times on Sunday but it will be on the cooler side.

    Next week…
    The set-up is for near to below normal temperatures as a series of troughs drops through, but they will do so in a configuration that does not allow it to rain much, if at all. This will remind you a little bit of the June pattern.

    The week after next week…
    The pattern has been shown to get out of here by some guidance, but I believe it may recycle itself and the cooler regime may last a little longer than I had indicated above. I’ll readjust my forecast on the next update if I still feel this to be the case.

    The last week of August and September…
    Ridge builds in the central US then migrates eastward, and we get quite a bit of late summer heat, as well as some humidity, but a continued decided lack of rain. The only way we’re likely to see any serious drought relief is by getting some kind of tropical system or solid remnants of one up along the East Coast, and there is no way to tell if this will occur right now.

    What about Autumn…?
    Hinted at a warm one with a chilly finish. Still feel that way. Oh, and the drastic lack of rainfall will continue.

    What about Winter…?
    It’s too early! Are you kidding? Actually, I have mentioned it already, and yes it’s too early to really “make a forecast” all the way into winter. In fact it’s more than going out on a limb. It’s hanging by the tip of a branch with your fingernails. But that said, what I can tell you is that the indices I expected to be in the phases I expect them to be in (as far as I can tell that this far in advance) remind me of a winter in which the temperature changes frequently but we don’t get all that much storminess. In other words, drought goes on, and on, and on… Don’t make any bets based on what I just said, but this is my current leaning.

  23. Thanks TK. Appreciate your thoughts, and agree very much at least on the things we can see more clearly. Regarding the next 10-15 days, while the high heat will be missing, to me it looks like one of the driest stretches yet in a summer that has seen plenty of dry times.

  24. TK – Regarding your thoughts about the upcoming winter, are you hinting below if not well below normal snowfall?

    El Niño without the actual El Niño pattern so to speak? 😉

    1. We’ll likely be in a La Nina, and the hint of less snow is mainly because I think it will be very dry.

    1. BUT, NWS says….

      Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms with brief heavy rain
      will affect western MA/Northern CT through mid morning in
      association with shortwave energy/elevated instability. A few of
      these showers may also affect eastern MA/RI this morning, but
      forcing is weaker across this region so areal coverage will be more
      limited.

      Does NOT look like there is any weakening. Let’s hope so.

  27. Red Sox win a thriller, 2-1.

    Rodriguez looked really good. Hill and Betts homered.

    Sox call up Andrew Benintendi and he will start in left tonight.

  28. Looks like most of the rain just to the west will pull a disappearing act before reaching Boston. Some may make it – but not all that much.

    New post!

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