Tuesday Forecast

115 Comments

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 2-6)…
A final disturbance producing some rainfall in southwestern NH, central MA, and northern RI as of this writing about 7:00AM is rapidly weakening and much of the rainfall will dissipate as it tries to push eastward this morning, but some areas will be wet for a while further east as well – just not any beneficial rain for much of the region. Drier air will gradually work in during the day today and eventually clouds will give way to sun, then high pressure will be in control through Friday with fair weather and a warming trend. Humidity eventually makes a come back by later Thursday and Friday ahead of a cold front. This front will cross the region Saturday, with timing early enough that the shower and thunderstorm threat will end during the afternoon from northwest to southeast.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy with showers likely but diminishing as they push eastward during the morning. Decreasing clouds and increasing sun this afternoon. Highs 76-83, coolest in coastal areas. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-66, coolest interior valleys. Wind light NE to N.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68. Highs 78-88, coolest Cape Cod.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Lows 62-70. Wind 80-92, coolest Cape Cod.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of evening or nighttime thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 64-72. Highs 82-94, coolest Cape Cod.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of morning and midday thunderstorms. Less humid late. Lows 65-73. Highs 80-90, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 7-11)…
Temperatures near to below normal with mainly dry weather as a series of troughs drop out of eastern Canada, too far east to produce rain but delivering a few cooler air masses.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 12-16)…
Variable temperatures, averaging closer to normal. Limited shower and storm risks.

115 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK, good morning all. Steady rain just now arriving in Wrentham. A lot of the short range guidance missed the rain making it this far to the east. Does appear go be weakening though.

  3. Thank you TK

    No wiggles here….we have honest to goodness rain hitting the window. 0.33 as of now but still more to come. Not enough, I know, but the birds are happy.

  4. As I sit in the car ready to head to work, it is starting to rain a bit. Looking at radar, it appears the rain is running into a brickbwall. The East end is disintergrstingm

  6. much of the rainfall will dissipate as it tries to push eastward this morning

    Blasphemy!!!

    This Can’t happen again. What are we, CURSED??????????????????????????????

  9. In the take with a bucket load of salt category since I need something to track.
    Quick peak at 6z GFS for Saturday picking up on instability greater than 1,000 18z to 0z for SNE.

    1. JJ look at the parameters I posted at the end of the previous blog.

      CAPE > 2,500 joules, LI near -8

      Looks interesting, UNTIL it is gone on the 12Z run. 😀 😀 😀

  11. ARGHHHHHHHHH_!@*()&_#*(&!_@*(#&!^@&*#%^!@*#&!@*(#^!@&*^#(!&*@#^

    The rain is totally and completely falling apart just before it can get into
    Boston. .0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001
    inch then stopped()!&@*(#&*(!@^#&*%!@^#%!^@%#^!%&!@#&^!%^#$^!@#^!&*@#%!@#^%!@#&!^@#^!%@#!@#^!%@&#%!^@%#!%^@#%!^%@#^%!^@#%!%@&#^%!^@%#!%&@#^!%@#^%!^%@#&^!%@#^%!&@#%!&^@#%!^@%#%#%!@#!^@#%&!%@#^!%@#^%!&@#^%&!^%@#&!@%#&!^@%#!^%@#^!%@#%!^@%#!^@%#^!%@#^

  12. No real rain in Back Bay. Well, I did feel a rain drop or two on my run. Literally one or two rain drops. To the trees, grass, and vegetation that look so sad along the Esplanade those measly rain drops are like a sick joke. I heard one maple tree say, “are you kidding me, ah to hell with these leaves.” And with that she shed all her leaves.

    1. You have been on a roll and a half. Nice.

      I actually had to wipe the windshield a couple of times on the way in, but then it was GONE!

  14. JPDave thanks for those links on the previous blog. Will see if it goes pooforama when 12z run comes out. The timing 6z GFS shows would be a time where you could get strong to severe storms should everything line up right.

    1. Indeed. It should be noted that the EURO timing is different and thus
      the severe threat is NOT there. Still it is only Tuesday and we have seen
      what kind of trouble the models have this far out. 😀

  15. I will say this the PGA Tour is in CT this week for the Travelers Championship. More times than not we get storms during that time period and sometimes there severe. In fact in 2009 and 2010 when the tournament was here we had in 2009 an EF 1 tornado in Wethersfield and 2010 and EF 1 tornado in Bridgeport.

  16. Well a few drops of rain has spread into the area. The pavements are partially wet, but not totally. More like one can see rain drops on the pavement. 😀

  20. Thanks TK !

    The drought or rainfall deficit extends up to here.

    Normally, in the campground we are in now, if you dare to step off the gravelly, dirt road into the grass, you sink as if you stepped into a sponge and water covers your foot.

    Not this year, very easy to walk across the entire campground.

    Glad to see that at least central and western areas of New England are seeing measureable rain with this disturbance.

    1. Yes they did/are, but NOT in Eastern sections.

      Absolutely amazing to watch the radar echoes shrink and virtually disappear.

      2. With all that is going on around us, Joshua, you are a breath of fresh air……

        Thank you for the laughs.

  22. I can actually SEE rain falling outside of my window. Amazing site!

    That’s what it looks like. 😀

    1. Yes, I can verify, those are puddles that you’re seeing, Dave, as I’ve been out and about in the rain singing “raindrops keep falling on my head …”

      It ain’t much, but it’s better than nothing. I think the Logan report at 11am hadn’t been updated. It’s more than a trace of rain. Not by much, but my guess is that downtown Boston has picked up between .05 and .1.

  29. Benintendi’s been called up. I love the name. There’s something special about Italian names like Conigliaro, Petrocelli, Dimaggio, Piazza, etc … And then outside of sports, there’s Mastroianni, Loren, Fellini, Galileo, Machiavelli, da Vinci, Polo, …

    1. Not to mention cacchiatore, ziti, vongole, capricola, mortadella, mozzarella, provolone, bolognese, caprese, stromboli, pepperoncini, tiramisu, cappuccino, espresso, latte… 😉

        1. Amaretto, Sambuca (has to be Molinari), Campari, Aperitivo, Godiva, Grappa (yuk), Limoncello. Marsala, Mellone, Mezzaluna, and fine wines too many to mention!

  30. Quick peak at the 12z GFS for Saturday on Cod Site 18z to 0z (2pm – 8pm) enough instability for thunderstorms in eastern parts of SNE.

    2. Sì, Gatto superiore non ha alcun problema con un poco Italiano. Naturalmente, tutto circa il meteo; pioggia, siccità, neve, e foro di Charlie.

  33. Hey, what up?
    Just got caught in a drenching down pour. Just when it looked like the rain would
    quit, it intensified. Love it.

    Almost like a Winter storm backlash. Awesome!

    1. Good news, Dave. I overestimated what had fallen in downtown Boston a couple of hours ago, but my guess is that we’re somewhere close to or even above 0.1 at this point. It’s been raining almost non-stop for a while.

  36. I am thinking the out of 12z runs GFS stands alone with a later passage for Saturday and enough instability for thunderstorms in eastern areas. This is the only thing to watch for the remainder of the week.

    1. I thing I can add over the previous runs…
      The Euro and the CMC seem to be on board with thunderstorms
      and “possible” severe for Saturday. All in similar agreement on timing with
      slight differences.

      Will continue to monitor. We shall see.

      1. From the GFS run your area has the better chance for the stronger storms on Saturday as it crosses my area early in the day.

  37. Don’t get too excited about rain totals today. It did nothing for the drought anywhere.

  38. One of our meteorologists here in CT Gil Simmons said today the drought is still here and if you go back to last year the deficits are larger.

  39. .58″ was the total in Wrentham. We’ll very much take it, but looks to be all we get for quite awhile. Next 10 days look like next to nothing for rainfall.

    And TK is correct, this is no drought relief; our region isn’t like California, you’ll never see an entire month of zero rain strung together. Days like today happen, but they haven’t been nearly plentiful enough this year.

    1. I am “hopeful” Saturday delivers something. We shall see as it is a long way
      from verifying.

  40. Don’t expect much from Saturday’s system. If you do, you’ll be disappointed.
    Moisture will be lacking and timing will be not what you want for widespread showers/storms.

  42. As SAK mentioned earlier, “Earl” has formed in the Caribbean, as expected. It’s forecast to approach hurricane strength before landfall tomorrow night in Belize.

    While a pretty mundane occurrence, it’s still somewhat notable, as the past two years have not featured a single storm that formed or intensified in the Caribbean due to high wind shear there. The “re-opening” of the Caribbean this year is part of the reason I expect this hurricane season to at least get back to normal levels of activity after a few quiet seasons in a row.

  43. 0.4″ officially at Logan. I was caught in a pretty good downpour here in Dorchester though, so I would be curious how much other neighborhoods of Boston got, not that we are talking about any drought busting amounts by any means.

      2. MORE than that here in JP. We got in on one or 2 of those
        downpours. I’d estimate .2 to .3 inches here. I could be wrong.
        Using my puddle estimate until my rain gauge comes. 😀

  45. 41 years ago today, August 2, 1975, the all-time state record high temperature of 107 was set in New Bedford and Chester, MA.

      1. My old memory may recall after all. Time frame seems right for being in Hanover moving a friend/professor into Dartmouth. We had no idea how hot it was until we returned home. If I recall correctly it was 102 in Hanover

  46. Alas, tonight is the last 8:00 or later sunset here in Taunton until May 17 of next year.

  48. Yes, Vicki, the air does feel refreshing this evening.

    Remember, don’t throw those mushrooms that sprouted on your lawn into your spaghetti sauce!

    And Captain Fantastic, thanks for pointing out the fact that we’re losing daylight and it’s noticeable. I tend to notice it around the 1st of August. Still plenty of daylight for a while, but we are headed `downhill’ as the earth’s tilt reversal continues.

    1. I am back. It was great. Walked the Minuteman Bikeway from Lexington Center to the Bedford Depot, then back via The Great Road (a.k.a. route 4).

      😀

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