7:27AM
DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 3-7)…
High pressure dominates through Friday with fair weather and a warming trend. It starts out comfortable then heat and humidity builds by Friday, though humidity will be more noticeable by later Thursday. A cold front brings a risk of passing showers and thunderstorms Saturday, with timing still favoring the early to middle part of the day except southeastern areas (Cape Cod) which may see a risk of showers/storms later. Fair weather returns Sunday with lower humidity.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80 coast, 80-85 interior. Wind light NE shifting to SE.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 58-63 interior, 63-68 coast/urban areas. Wind light SE to S.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 78-83 South Coast, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 64-72. Highs 82-94, coolest Cape Cod.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows 65-73. Highs 80-90, coolest South Coast.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 62-70. Highs 80-90, coolest Cape Cod.
DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 8-12)…
Temperatures slightly cooler early in the period then warming, with mainly dry weather.
DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 13-17)…
Warmer start, risk of showers/thunderstorms mid period, then cooler later in the period with dry weather.
Thanks.
Thank you TK
Happy birthday Dave and Raunshine
And tom Brady
And there may be a new addition to that birthday list by end of day. Daughter on her way to hospital 🙂
Rainshine. Sorry. Auto correct
Best wishes to your daughter and the family Vicki !
Happy Birthday to all !
Thanks, Vicki. And best wishes to your daughter and your family!
Thank you Tom and Rainshine. It is a very popular day for birthdays. All special people.
So exciting!! Happy birthday to Dave and Rainshine, sending prayers, comforting, pain-free thoughts to Vicki’s daughter! What an exciting day, and weatherwise, such a perfect day to bring a baby into the world!
Many thanks
Thank you, Flowergirl75! By the way – love your name. Whenever I see it I think of pretty flowers – all year round!
Best wishes for your daughter! And thank you for the birthday wishes.
Happy Birthday Dave and Rainshine!
Thanks TK !
Clear and calm last night and it was chilly !!
47F at 3am in Sydney, Canada.
Warming nicely this morning.
Dave, didn’t know it was your birthday – Happy Birthday!
Yup, and thank you.
And Happy birthday to you Rainshine.
We share our birthdays with Tom Brady. Pretty cool.
🙂
Vicki, best wishes to your daughter!
Tom, 47F sounds great.
TK, thank you once again for all the work you do.
Fernando Abad, you’re living up to your name’s reputation. That was `a bad’ outing. So much for my saying he was a good pitcher. Funny how when they put on different laundry, this can go south in a hurry.
South in a hurry? I should say so! VERY FIRST batter he faced in a Red Sox
uniform! Way to go!! Typical, very very typical!
I forgot to include birthday wishes for our most enthusiastic poster – JPDave. And also birthday greetings to Rainshine.
Thanks Joshua. I “think” I still maintain being the “oldest” poster on the blog. 😀
I cannot remember how much older you are than I am. I think not much??
2 years, I think.
We are spring chickens!! Or wise old owls. Either way, we seem to be some type of bird!
I must be the Cuckoo bird!
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9e/Guira_guira.jpg/240px-Guira_guira.jpg
Ha!! I stopped short of that but fits me too.
Thank you Joshua!
Thanks TK
Happy Birthday JPDave and Rainshine.
Vicki best wishes to your daughter and family.
Thanks JJ.
Thank you, JJ!
Good morning and thank you TK.
re: Saturday
GFS continues to slowly back off some.
NAM now has more robust parameters, yet shows practically ZILCH on the radar
Sims.
We shall see.
Thanks, everyone, for your well wishes for my daughter 🙂
I have four friends with a birthday today…..may I consider Brady a friend 😉
6z GFS keeps best instability south of SNE. NAM as usual robust and over done.
From NWS Taunton for Saturday
the accompanying shortwave lags the front by
about 6 to 12 hours. If this timing holds, it will limit how
intense the storms are able to get
Isn’t it always the case? I don’t care about severe, as long as we get some
RAIN out of it. TK says isolated to widely scattered. Doesn’t sound promising, does it?
I would have loved to sent some of the rain we got your way. There were some places here in CT that got over two inches of rain over the weekend.
Appreciate that, however, I don’t think it works that way. 😀
Thank you TK!
Happy Birthday to JPD and Rainshine!
Thank you much.
Thank you, Sue!
If you can stand a little humor. Frankly, I think this is awesome.
http://media.dcentertainment.com/sites/default/files/imce/2015/09-SEP/MAD-Magazine-Trumpty-Dumpty_560c097d5c6bc1.42214947.jpg
Love it. Thanks.
LOL!!!
I just was reading an article oceanography I believe that said all across the board the next 3 months couid be the warmest on record for the fall. Tk couid you chime in on this please .
No evidence to support this prognostocation. Time will tell. 🙂
It’s something that came across my FB page .
Every year this century has set a record.
I’d like to know the source.
Ok I’ll copy the exact source down . I can’t forward it here I’ll do it tonight . I also don’t think I said the name right
Perfect. I don’t buy anything straight out until I check the source. Thanks in advance!
12Z NAM
CAPE at 21Z
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016080312/081/sbcape.us_ne.png
LIFTED INDEX at 21Z
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016080312/081/sbli.us_ne.png
Pretty robust, no?
Simulated reflectivity at 21Z
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016080312&time=INSTANT&var=REFC&hour=081
Not so much, eh?
We shall see what the GFS and the EURO have to say.
Very little action with that front despite the amount of instability that is present
GFS still shows some instability for Saturday at 18Z
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016080312/078/sbcape.us_ne.png
Its enough there for thunderstorm development. Now we wait for EURO. The way we been going probably going to be isolated at best.
Dan Collins a met from climate prediction center I guess is who said it. All being attributed to the warm waters
Interesting, as there are areas of cooler than normal water as well. Maybe he thinks that doesn’t count. 😉
http://icons-ak.wxug.com/data/images/sst_basin/at_anom_mm.gif
Fits the current AMO phase, coming out of the southern cooler spike. About what I expected to see based on previous projections.
And a very happy birthday to JpDave, rainshine, and possibly a new addition to Vicki’s family?? 🙂
Thanks, Ace.
Thanks Ace
It is an absolutely perfect August day. We even have some really interesting clouds thrown into what was clear blue sky. Love it
Happy birthday to all the birthday people.
JPDave….might have you beat as the oldest here.
I am 75, but don’t look a day older than 74.
🙂
Well, I stand corrected. You do have me beaten. Well done.
Latest run of the NAM living up to its reputation of over doing things.
My new grand daughter Rilyn Mac arrived about an hour ago. Am heading to hospital to meet her
Awesome news, congrats!
Congrats!
🙂 🙂 🙂
That is wonderful news. Congrats!
18z GFS came in more robust on the Saturday convection. I’m not optimistic for anything much though.
In a guarded fashion, I’m hopeful for wetter times by late next week based on a few signals I’m seeing. It’ll be more needed than ever after the next 7 days. The CPC has nudged us into slightly enhanced probabilities of above normal precip over days 8-14. Hardly a reason for confidence, as TK has said they’ve done that before this season, but maybe this time will be different, have to wait and see.
Finally, Earl, now a hurricane, will make landfall in Belize tonight, with quiet times to follow in the Atlantic once he’s out of the way.
Also, as a final note, the West Pacific will enter into an active typhoon regime over the next two weeks after a very slow start to the season there. Any strong recurving typhoons will have to be watched for downstream impacts, we’ve seen in the past how those can sometimes throw a wrench into our weather, distant as they may seem.
Spent the afternoon fishing in the wild land between Medfield and Millis.
Have a look.
https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13932689_10201832571491760_268049981989012956_n.jpg?oh=77aba6b7dde959ae55c6edec8e276900&oe=5822B667
I also noticed that with 18z GFS. Enough there for thunderstorm development and possible strong to severe storms.
Vicki, Congratulation on the new addition to your family: Rilyn Mac!
Dave, that’s a great spot for fishing. I used to live in Needham as kid, fairly close to the Dover line, and my father and I would bike to Medfield.
Congratulations Vicki on the new grand daughter!! 🙂
Congratulations Vickie! Just got home and saw the news. Love the name!
Thank you again everyone. She is lovely…but then all babies are lovely
Dave that is a lovely area to fish. And on a perfect day. How’d you do?
Thanks, a bunch of small fish. Largest was a big perch.
Earl is making landfall in Belize. Here’s a link to the radar loop from Belize City: http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/250-km-radar-loop
And of course, my blog post about Earl: https://stormhqblog.wordpress.com/2016/08/03/hurricane-earl-hits-belize/
Severe parameters have been fluctuating from run to run and model to model
for Saturday.
Simulated radars are NOT looking impressive. We shall see. Getting closer
now. Let’s see what 12Z runs show.
Congrats Vicki!
Belated happy birthday to all those who celebrated one yesterday!
Congrats Vicki!
Today would have been my dad’s 93rd. This is the first birthday without him. Mom and I are taking fresh flowers to his grave today.
New post available. Have a great day!