Friday Forecast

91 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 5-9)…
High pressure slips off to the south today and sunshine will dominate. It will be warmer than the last few days and you may notice humidity creeping up, especially by tonight, ahead of a cold front. This front will pass through from northwest to southeast on Saturday. One line of dying or nearly dissipate showers/storms may be around early in the day, probably not producing much of anything. A second line or a couple clusters of storms will develop as the front nears and passes, but it may not turn into a solid area of storms, and only spotty areas may see a briefly stronger storm or at least heavy downpour. In other words, many areas may get missed, or not much. Will watch it as there is a marginal risk for an isolated severe storm either way. High pressure returns to domination after that.
TODAY: Sunshine. Highs 78-85 South Coast and Cape Cod, 86-92 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. More humid. Lows 62-70, warmest in urban areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms afternoon but ending northwest to southeast late in the day. Any storms may be strong. Humid. Highs 78-85 South Coast and Cape Cod, 86-92 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW later in the day from northwest to southeast.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 62-70, warmest in urban areas. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 78-83 immediate coast, 83-88 interior. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 58-65. Highs 78-85.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-67. Highs 80-87.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 10-14)…
A frontal system somewhere mid period may produce a shower or thunderstorm otherwise dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 15-19)…
No major changes to an overall dry and fairly warm pattern.

91 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    The fog has arrived on the shores of Fundy. Visibility about 100 ft. It’s chilly with the SW wind off of the Bay. About 60F temp and dewpoint, but the strong wind definitely adds a wind chill. I’ll bet the record high in this particular spot can’t be much higher than 80F.

  3. Thanks TK.
    SPC continues us in the marginal risk for tomorrow. I don’t see this changing with the update around 1:30pm today. The region is in the hazardous weather outlook for tomorrow. I am not excited about this and the theme will continue where there will be areas that remain and dry and some areas that good a pretty good thunderstorm.

    1. Certainly not excited nor worried about tomorrow. Perhaps that will change
      later. We shall see. I’d just like to see a slug of rain tomorrow, but I seriously
      doubt that will happen.

      I loved the 18Z NAM run yesterday. Too bad that won’t happen. 😀

  4. Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Severe weather threat remains for Saturday. Strong storms may make it all the way to the Sound.

    1. What is he seeing? He appears to be a tad bullish.
      He’s not usually like that is he? He must see something.

  7. A year ago yesterday there was good size hail in the Boston area when severe thunderstorms came by. I remember the photo JPDave posted here with that hail as it was falling from the sky.

    1. Yup, tis true. I actually posted a short video I took from my office Window.

      I had NEVER ever before witnessed Hail that large first hand in person.
      NEVER! It was truly an awesome site to behold. I distinctly remember
      the noise it was making pounding the roof immediately above my 3rd floor office. Never heard anything like that in my life. Amazing.

      Now for tomorrow, we can do WITHOUT that. How about some nice RAIN?
      I’ll be very happy with just that. I don’t care if it doesn’t thunder, just
      give me the rain.

      1. Just checked the Archives, but the link to the video is
        no longer available. I was going to post it.

        I don’t even have the phone it was on anymore.
        That one got factory reset and I got a new replacement phone
        as the office changed phones and providers.

  8. Latest from the Taunton NWS office re: Tomorrow

    — Changed Discussion —
    ***Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible late Saturday
    morning through early Saturday evening with a very localized urban
    street flooding threat***

    ***Highest risk for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and
    very localized urban street flooding south of MA turnpike***

  9. Looking at RPM model the storms will travel northeast to southeast and they actually get stronger approaching coastal areas.
    I agree with you JPDave Ryan is not usually that bullish.

    1. Typo. I think you meant to type Northwest to Southeast.

      Also, the NWS agrees somewhat at least as they indicated strongest
      storms South of the Mass Pike. I am South of the Mass Pike by a few miles.

      Does that count? OR do they mean like 25-50 miles South??????? 😀 😀 😀

  11. Typo on my part.
    It always seems here in CT we get our strongest storms when they move in from northwest to southeast.
    Quick peak at 12z NAM on cod site highest instability southern CT southern RI South Shore in MA.

  12. Nice solid line of storms on that run of the HRRR model. Pretty similar to the RPM model. Heavy rain and strong winds looking like the main concern with any storm that fires tomorrow.

  13. 12z 12KM NAM. Big woof.

    Total precip ending 11PM Sunday night.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016080512/namconus_apcpn_neus_21.png

    JOKERAMA!

    And the WINNER IS? The 12Z 4KM NAM

    Total precip ending 12Z Sunday morning. This one NAILED IT!

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016080512/nam4km_apcpn_neus_16.png

    HA we get SKUNKED again.

    I do realize we are still 36 hours from the event (or at least from init time).
    This could change and because the 4KM NAM says it’s so, doesn’t mean it is.

    We shall see.

    BUT, I must say I am disappointed in that run.

    1. Wouldn’t pay too much attention to 4KM NAM this far out. It tries to nail down specific details, like the exact location of thunderstorms, which is unpredictable.

  14. I have a non weather question. Has anyone heard of increased volcano activity as of late around the world?

    1. There are loose seismic cycles, and the Pacific just went through an upswing. There is nothing earth-shattering (pun intended) going on. 😉

  15. Yo! It’s me on the alter-ego for a while.

    I don’t see the wording as stronger or weaker. The threat is about the same. Nothing about the forecast is really changing. It always came down to timing.

    Remember that an advancing front hardly ever brings a solid line of convection that doesn’t change. Even with a front, it’s usually quite diurnal. Your cold front is going to produce its best stuff during and shortly after the heating of the day. You’ll fire up a line, cluster, etc. of storms depending on the synoptic setup. You’ll often have a pre-frontal trough that fires the most stuff and often the front itself has limited convection.

    In this particular case, we’ll probably be seeing a pre-frontal trough charging through in the morning, with the remnant clouds/showers from today’s activity upstream. Then we have the front itself that crosses the region during the afternoon. Remember that it will take time to fire the new storms on the front, and that may take until it is near or beyond a Hartford to Boston line, hence the greater potential further south. That doesn’t leave areas north and west out completely, as there is always a risk something fires earlier, or you have a renegade cell on a lingering boundary or under an area of instability.

    I am pretty certain that thunderstorms will be more the exception than the rule, and that any severe storms would be quite isolated. But remember, meteorologists have a responsibility to inform their audience of what may happen, so they still have to mention severe storms. The mention of severe storms does not automatically mean “severe outbreak”. You’d see such wording if we felt that severe weather was going to be more widespread. The atmosphere this time is somewhat marginal, with timing taken into account, but it still needs to be mentioned.

    The majority of folks will not see any thunderstorms tomorrow, and many may not even see any rain at all of any consequence. But those few areas that happen to have the heavier storms pass over them will be quite different. The nature of summer weather. The nature of convection.

    1. Well said and that being said, Boston in particular, is LIKELY to be left out
      of this one. 😀

      Hope I am dead wrong.

      1. Boston would have a shot at being near or right under a developing storm midday to mid afternoon, depending on frontal timing and point of initiation of convection.

        1. Yes, I understand that, BUT being the pessimist that I am, I am certain Boston will Miss.

          Here’s hoping we get in on at least some action.

          1. Well, you may feel that way, but as a met. I have to state that they are under risk. Only realism in my statements. You are allowed to practice pessimism. 😉

            1. Oh, I am good at it, believe me.
              I could go on forever.

              You at least offer me some hope.

              I will be model and radar gazing until something happens or not tomorrow. 😀

              I am really rooting for a decent slug of rain.

  17. There is a fair amount of turning of the winds with height.
    Is there no tornado threat mainly due to the High LCL levels?
    AND not enough CAPE?

    1. Those are 2 negative factors for sure. Timing is another, for at least part of the region, but where the timing is better, the air will be even more stable. So there you go…

  19. WHW account will resume operations by late afternoon. In the mean time you’re stuck with the WBZ version. 😉

  20. SPC maintains the marginal risk for tomorrow. Ryan Hanrahan said on air earlier biggest threat for strong storms I-95 corridor NYC CT shoreline up to Providence and Boston and south and east from there.
    We shall see but looking at the HRRR model that JPDave posted earlier you could see a good line of storms forming heading towards southern areas of SNE.

  22. New weather station arrived today. Won’t have time to set it up tonight.
    I have things to do in the Morning, so I hope I have enough time before
    any action comes, IF it comes. 😀

  23. That is pretty good line of storms starting to form. I am not noticing individual cells which is good. The areas will be affected could have a pretty good thunderstorm with strong winds and heavy rain but I feel most will not and will continue our theme this warm weather season.

    1. I’ll be happy when the operational HRRR and the RAP in within range.

      AND I wish they would run the experimental out farther more often.
      It can go out to 36 hours, IF they choose to run it that far. Most of them are topped off at 15-18 hours.

  24. When its over just like with winter storms I like to look back and see which short range models handled it well and which did not.

  25. Latest from NWS at Taunton:

    Considering all of this believe convection will materialize the mode
    of which be in the form of a parallel-stratiform squall-line along
    and ahead of the sweeping cold front as a majority of high-res guidance
    suggest. Thinking embedded strong to severe storms which will have
    the ability of producing straight-line winds and resultant damage,
    though thinking overall impacts will be isolated and not widespread.
    And importantly this activity will go right to the coastline and
    out to sea. But the greatest uncertainty is exactly where and when
    this setup will emerge. Looking at a time frame from late morning
    into early evening.

    1. Parallel stratiform squall line would mean much of the area sees light rain, with a few areas getting hit by the big cells.

  27. Just watching the RPM model on television it really shows a strengthening line of storms for coastal areas of CT RI.

  28. Quick peak at the 18z NAM highest CAPE across central southern parts of CT RI and South Shore. Boston area looks to get CAPE a little over 1500 around 0z (8pm)

    1. 4KM NAM looks more robust.

      At this point, I’d toss the regular 32KM NAM and go with the 4KM.
      NWS and other Mets seem to like what they are seeing from the High Resolution models, of which the 4KM NAM is one.

  29. The thing to continue to stress here as been the case this warm weather season these strong to severe storms will be isolated in nature but if your town or city sees one you could have a good size thunderstorm. Just because SPC has us in marginal risk does not mean we can’t see severe storms. A few weeks ago that line of storms that caused wind damage in parts of southern NH and parts of northern MA was when the SPC had a marginal risk up for those areas.

  31. There’ll be some risk anywhere for scattered showers/storms tomorrow, but to me it looks like the best chance for any stronger storms will be southwest of most of us, with CT likely having the highest risk for a few severe storms, and down towards NYC as well.

    As we’ve seen a few times this summer, it could be another day where our region gets split by convection to our southwest and additional convection in eastern/southeastern Maine. Some of the short range guidance hints at this.

  32. In the “fun with tropical weather” category tonight, a couple of the cyclones active in the world right now. This first link is visible satellite in the West Pacific, with the feature of interest being the behemoth tropical storm, “Omais”. As I mentioned a couple days ago, a very active 2 weeks or more coming out there.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/jma/nwpac/vis-l.gif

    On our side, Earl is preparing for another landfall. It just barely emerged into the Bay of Campeche, but that was enough for it to significantly intensify today, and is likely close to hurricane strength (65-70mph?) as it approaches landfall. The Bay of Campeche is a magical place for tropical cyclones; the bowl shaped topography of the surrounding land and warm waters are ideal for tropical systems. This link is a saved image of Earl preparing to come onshore.

    http://i.imgur.com/a4uEATk.gif

  33. my grandfather said its the driest he has seen it in over 25 years, one of the worse he has seen in terms for his garden

    1. Indeed, Matt. It’s been quite a while since we’ve seen this kind of prolonged and extensive drought.

    2. I think it is the serious gardeners we need to listen to…even over statistics in some cases and certainly in line with statistics

  34. Locally this drought is one of the tops since the 1980s.

    Regionally, the 2002 drought was worse (to this point).

      1. 2002 was pretty brutal. This summer is quite warm but it has not (so far) matched 1988, which I thought it had a legitimate chance to do. We will bump it up in the heat category though as we head into late August and September (basically the last full weeks of astronomical summer).

        1. I don’t think it topped what I recall in 1988 either but then I didn’t have AC then and I do now.

          1. I think 1988 was worse, but they were both nasty hot.

            1995 was another hottie.
            1983 was probably the hottest I can remember, and 1980 was pretty hot as well.

  35. 2002 was the hottest summer I remember. 35 90 degree plus days that summer in CT including a 9 day heat wave in August.

  36. TK, I do remember 1995 being a hot summer, as well as 1980, 1983 and 1988. In 1980 I worked as a teenager in my uncle’s hardware store in a tiny town in the Pennsylvania heartland. Every day was hot, or so it seemed. My uncle used the word “close” to describe hot and humid. They had many words in rural Pennsylvania that we don’t use here, and “close” was one of them.

  37. SREF now showing a general 20% chance of severe across most of SNE.
    My guess is SPC upgrades our area to slight on the 1 day outlook tomorrow.

    We shall see.

  38. The update for today from the SPC comes around 9am. All of SNE right now in a marginal risk. Currently there is a special weather statement out for the risk of scattered strong to severe storms with the main threats being heavy rain and strong damaging straight line winds.

  41. I have sunshine out where I am. Heading to the golf course to get in a round of golf before the storms arrive this afternoon.

  45. Good morning all.

    About 63F here with a howling SW wind. We’re getting used to this bay of Fundy chill and from looking at the EURO 850 mb temps for next week and seeing BB’s 90F, 90F, 96F and 96F starting next Wednesday, can see we’ll have one heck of a temperature adjustment the middle of next week. If my wife didn’t have a camp obligation in mid August, I think I’d stay here until the 25th and be home by the 29th for teacher orientation.

    Hope you get some rain today and some good thunderstorms, but no severe weather. It’s dry up here too. There’s a campfire band, which I fully understand and support.

    1. Oh, being so far west in the Atlantic standard time zone, the solar noon time is after 1pm and thus, for example, today’s sunrise was 6:17 and the sunset at 8:40pm. Nearly the same length of light as Boston, but just a different time of when solar noon happens. It gets dark around 9pm.

      1. Digby, like everywhere else on Fundy has incredible tides. It’s low tide this morning measures 3ft deep and its high tide this mid afternoon measures 26ft deep. You can go to any cliff spot in the area and see and HEAR the currents offshore which look like class 3 or 4 whitewater Rapids.

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