Sunday Forecast

103 Comments

8:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 7-11)…
High pressure retakes the weather today but a weak disturbance passing through from northwest to southeast later in the day will bring some cloudiness including the remote risk of a passing shower in southeastern NH and/or northeastern MA. Sun will dominate Monday and Tuesday with dry air. Humidity creeps up Wednesday and that day may feature a few showers and thunderstorms from an approaching cold front, which will slip south of the region by Thursday when we go right back to dry conditions (or stay there in areas that miss Wednesday showers).
TODAY: Sunshine dominates through early afternoon then some cloudiness arrives especially southern NH and eastern MA with a remote risk of a passing shower before sunset in southeastern NH and northeastern MA. Highs 80-88. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-68. Wind light NW to N.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-86. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 58-67, coolest interior valleys and warmest urban areas. Highs 80-88, coolest coast.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms late day. More humid. Lows 60-68. Highs 82-90, coolest coast.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68. Highs 82-90, coolest coast.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 12-16)…
A front in the area August 12-14 brings more humidity and the risk of a few showers and thunderstorms, though it does not look like any widespread rain. Fair and less humid August 15-16. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 17-21)…
Continued lower confidence forecast – still looking fairly dry with a possible cooling trend.

103 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Thank you, TK.

    Well, NECN’s Tim Kelley mentioned the possibility of “drought-busting rain” next weekend. While I like Tim, I thought to myself, fat chance we get that. I see that you’re not buying the hype of the possibility of a stalled front with lots of rain next weekend. I trust your judgment much more than other mets.

    1. Dave Epstein on WBZ mentioned the possibility of rain next weekend as well, but hardly “drought busting” but perhaps a lot more than we have seen, relatively speaking. For now, he is not even close to commit. We will have to wait and see…no hype whatsoever from Dave Epstein that’s for sure.

      1. Several members of both the GFS and ECMWF Ensembles show this possibility. Yes, it doesn’t seem likely, but it can’t be completely written off just yet. When I was on shift Friday night, in my extended outlooks for clients around here I mentioned the possibility. I said that it wasn’t likely, but that the potential was there. To ignore it would have been irresponsible on my part and a disservice to our clients. When I go in tonight (a rare Sunday night shift for me), I’m sure I’ll mention it again, since some of the Ensembles are still showing it.

        2. Agree with the assessment. I lean toward the dry forecast, for the same reasons we recently discussed, but can’t ignore the potential for at least some wetter weather than we’ve seen during that period.

  4. Thanks TK !

    Road tripping down to near Halifax today. Taking smaller route through vast forest and seeing more signs of drought ….. Forest fire …… Had a vehicle leading us and many other vehicles through a 2 mile stretch. Vegetation on sides of road burnt to a crisp, with some smoldering hot spots. We’ve been on the province 15 days now and it’s rained once.

    Beautiful today, humidity and fog are gone.

    1. Sounds chilling. Your vacation sounds wonderful. If you go near Bible Hill area give a shout out to Mac’s family please 🙂

  6. Absolutely loving the new weather station. From my PC, I can actually obtain
    graphs for each data item. Pretty cool. Can even download an excel spreadsheet
    and then I can do whatever fancy charts and graphs I want. Even much more than
    I ever expected out of this. And did I mention before? It HAS the DEW POINT!
    AWESOME!!!

    Only problem, I still can’t get the mobile app to work.

    I have installed an icon link to the PC version of it, so I can certainly access my home
    weather information from anywhere, just not it the fancy mobile app format.

    And for that, I am extremely disappointed. Their customer service is M-F, so can’t
    reach them on the weekend. I posted a question on a forum they have. We shall
    see IF anyone answers and/or has a fix for me.

  7. August 12-14: Opportunities for showers and thunderstorms but so far I’m not seeing anything that makes me think we’re going to be getting a whole lot of drought relief, at least regionally. There may be localized areas that benefit.

    Long term: Still a dry pattern, despite some CPC forecasts for above normal precipitation. I do not agree with their outlook.

    1. Who Ya gonna Trust? Tk or CPC?
      My money is on TK.

      FWIW, the Euro operational shows not much at all for the immediate Boston area. 😀 Not sure about ensembles.

  8. A-Roid makes it official – the Yankees have told him that he’s being released on Friday because he can’t play baseball any more. I’ll make sure to boo him for one last time at Fenway on Tuesday. Goodbye and good riddance.

      1. Actually, it wouldn’t. With tropicals, all the rain is west of the center when they get up here. So that would keep the drought going!

        1. You haven’t figured out my humor yet. I’m sure TK knows
          that this post was a colossal joke and attempt at humor.

  11. Kudos to Tk for correctly
    Calling for possible showers
    SE NH and NE MA. They are now there. Can even see clours from here. Oh and I’m
    Not home. I. Dedham at legacy place. Ruuning some errands before dinner later at
    Luciano’s.

      1. Are you unpoopular? Do you Pop out at parties?

        You need some more LUCY.

        Cells are popping, they just die as they approach the coast. 😀

  14. Models…
    NAM run from 12z is generally good through Wednesday.
    ECMWF is my choice from Thursday-Saturday.
    GFS is my choice Sunday-Tuesday (August 14-16).
    Not necessarily verbatim with any of these, but best choices for guidance.

  15. There is a train of echos from SE vt, far SW NH to North Central MA.
    A whole wagon train of them. None particularly strong and all dying as they near
    495.

  16. 12z ECMWF inundates most of the Gulf Coast with 8-16 inches of rain this week. Couldn’t they share a little with us? We’ll even make it a fair trade. They send us a few inches of rain now, we’ll send them a few inches of snow this winter.

    1. Interesting and thank you for sharing.

      I don’t even remember it.

      My brother lived in Burrillville at the time and I don’t ever remember he even talking about it.

  18. Trivia Quiz.

    The Perseid Meteor Shower is caused by …
    A. Comet Swift-Tuttle
    B. Comet Perseus
    C. Asteroid Vesta
    D. Comet Hale-Bopp

    Answer later today.

  20. TV forecasts high temps for Boston for next Saturday…
    Ch 25: 82
    Ch 7: 85
    Ch 5: 85
    Ch 4: 97
    Can you guess which station is using the 2m air temp forecast from the ECMWF? 😛

    1. Without looking, I’d say CHANNEL 4. Who is on there? Pamela Garnder?
      She couldn’t forecast here way out of a wet paper bag!

      1. I’ll refrain from any commentary on any particular forecasters. I’m just pointing out the difference. 🙂

        1. That’s fine, BUT I won’t.

          She is the WORST met I have EVER seen on TV, hands down!

          She even tops Todd Gutner, who was atrocious.

      1. Last night. Way too soon to figure which one will be closer since that’s day 6. But I’m pretty sure we won’t be looking at upper 90s.

          1. I actually think the longest stretch of heat for the summer (90+ for majority of region) may occur at the end of August and/or early September. What happened at the end of July may thwart that, however. The difference is that the late summer heat may be accompanied by more humidity than we’ve seen much of the summer, which has been very dry not only in terms of rain but in terms of dew point.

        2. I do my weekly outlook on Sunday nights and use 7-degree ranges for the region most of the time. Right now, my tentative forecast would be 85-92 for around here, but I’ll wait to see what later model runs have before actually writing the forecast.

        1. Most of it is not reaching the ground. I have a few drops and there is a little bit more about 1 mile southwest of me.

  22. On just popped in the Harbor just East of Boston and a couple more popping
    just NW of Boston. “Could” it happen? “Could” it?

  23. Looking out the window here, it sure looks like it wants to rain a bit.
    We shall see. I’d like to Christen the rain gauge. 😀

  24. Now one at 128. Can it survive another 10-15 miles? Yes, I know, not likely.
    Perhaps it can pulse and regenerate over my house?

      1. They are doing great. I have not seen a lot of them but got to hold the baby today while we sat on the deck. Thank you for asking.

        How are you and Mr Rainshine?

  28. We got a heavy shower in Sudbury about 1/2 an hr. ago. It got very windy, too. And the sun was shining brightly. rainshine! 🙂 You could smell the rain. But, within minutes, probably seconds – poof! What had been damp to wet was totally dry. Like it never happened. Trees, lawns and plants don’t like these little teases. I wonder what next wknd. will be like. Frankly, just my opinion, it will take a tropical system to put a dent in this drought.

    1. Wow. Humidity level here is nice…around 62 DP with a gentle breeze. Sun is August hot and lovely.

    2. Yesterday was the humid day with Boston’s dew point in the lower 70s. Today was bone dry as it fell from the upper 50s to upper 40s by midday then went back to the lower 50s. Very low by August standards.

  30. A 30 second sprinkle with sun here about a half hour ago. The ground barely moist.

    JPD, were you able to test your new rain gage today?

  31. Answer to Trivia Quiz.

    The Perseid Meteor Shower is caused by …
    A. Comet Swift-Tuttle
    B. Comet Perseus
    C. Asteroid Vesta
    D. Comet Hale-Bopp

    The correct answer is A. I think we can see it later in the week.

    1. Thanks Longshot

      I think the 11 and 12 are peak…better after moon sets at 1:00 am on 12th

      According to NASA, there may be twice as many as usual because Jupiters gravity pulled the debris stream so that earth goes through the middle rather than edge

  32. 18z GFS forecast for Boston on Thursday: 100F on the nose. Not sure it gets that hot but the big heat is coming back late this week.

    The NWS mentions the possibility (not a guarantee, only a potential) for a prolonged period of severe weather late this week. The late week period looks like a very uncertain forecast. It’s potentially the most active period of weather we’ve seen in awhile, but a lot is yet to be determined and won’t be for a few more days.

    1. Let me guess: 2m air temp forecast?

      I also don’t agree with their assessment on the severe weather potential this far out. I suspect it will be far too warm aloft.

  33. NWS Taunton for Wednesday
    Given the warm frontal
    approach, low lvl shear may be something to watch as this is a
    favorable setup for S New England weak tornado-genesis. Still a
    lot of circles to square yet.

    1. I don’t think they should have even gone there yet, because by tomorrow or Tuesday they won’t need to. 😉

    2. “circles to square…”
      This translates to trying to pound square pegs into round holes. 😛

  36. Good morning.

    Added my weather station to Wundermap.
    It will be identified as “Pond” in Jamaica Plain.

    Because on my sensor location, Afternoon temperatures may read just a tad
    high on sunny days, and wind information won’t be 100%. All else should be fine.

    Now let’s get some rain to see how the rain gauge does.

    Question: What happens to the rain gauge in Winter?

    Not impressed with severe weather potential. We shall see. Right now I’d be more
    interested in rain potential. I have to go water lawn shortly.

    2. That is really cool, JPD. How do you add a station? Do you have to be approved or “checked out?”

      1. 1. Obtain an account from Weather underground.
        2. Obtain the Station ID and Password from Weather Underground.
        3. At the weather station website. In my case Acu-Link.com
        share the Bridge and enter the Weather Underground username
        and password.

        No fees. No problems.

        My station was showing when I left the house for work. I went
        to show a co-worker here at the office and now it is NOT
        showing. I don’t get that.

        Perhaps there is a problem with the Acu-Link server?
        I dunno. Maybe they REJECTED me after all? 😀

        Will find out some how, some way.

          1. Compromise. It is on top of a porch railing post as far away from the house as possible. Open for the rain gauge and best possible I can do for the wind.

  37. 60F …… Bright sunshine and blue skies.

    Guess it’s Bermuda high time. The EURO 850 mb temps are roughly 18 to 20C for many, many days and I think it’s going to be very humid with this warm stretch.

    Two more days of Fundy chill then it’s back to sweltering I guess 🙂 🙂

    Have a good day all !

  41. Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    Nice catch by @Hayds1221 today – GEFS shows a really impressive surge of moisture later this week/weekend.

    Little twitter chat here with Ryan
    Comment
    Yeah, the moisture late this week looks pretty ridiculous. Heat, humidity, and storms from OV into Northeast.

    Ryan Response What will be interesting to see is whether GFS or Euro is right with offshore ridge. GFS = storms, Euro is mainly dry.

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