Monday Forecast

63 Comments

9:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 8-12)…
High pressure dominates today and Tuesday with plenty of sunshine along with warm and dry air. A frontal system will arrive Wednesday with more cloudiness, humidity, and the risk of showers and thunderstorms. Will watch the potential for some strong storms, but at this point my feeling is that once again this will be the major exception, and that coverage of evening general shower and thunderstorm activity will be low. A brief break Thursday with slightly drier but hotter weather will be followed by another risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms and humid conditions on Friday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-88, coolest Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-68, coolest interior valleys. Wind light N.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-90, coolest coastal areas. Wind light variable with light sea breeze in coastal areas.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 62-70. Highs 78-88, coolest South Coast.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Less humid. Lows 62-70. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. More humid. Lows 62-70. Highs 78-88, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 13-17)…
Humid weather and a daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the weekend of August 13-14. Trending drier August 15-17. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 18-22)…
Cooler weather possible for a few days early to mid period, then building heat and humidity may return with the emergence of the Bermuda High later in the period.

63 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK. I am going to enjoy the next two days before the humidity is back
    Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Nice catch by @Hayds1221 today – GEFS shows a really impressive surge of moisture later this week/weekend.

    Little twitter chat here with Ryan
    Comment
    Yeah, the moisture late this week looks pretty ridiculous. Heat, humidity, and storms from OV into Northeast.
    Ryan Response What will be interesting to see is whether GFS or Euro is right with offshore ridge. GFS = storms, Euro is mainly dry.

  3. Morning again, and thank you TK for the Monday morning update.

    Interesting that your high temperature for Thursday is 78-85, while the weather
    Wimbette on Channel 4 last night had 96 for Thursday. At the same time, she had
    thunderstorms for Wednesday. We are supposed to go down to Lakeville either
    Wednesday or Thursday and either way last night’s forecast didn’t sit well with
    my wife.

    There is a good reason you have 78-85. And I told my wife NOT to worry about
    Wednesday Thunderstorms as the would be rather isolated. We shall see.

    1. Well I do have 86-93 for the area away from the South Coast, but in my mind the lower 90s are more reserved for north central MA and interior southern NH.

      1. I missed that, but since we’ll be at Lakeville, that is about
        at the dividing line as it would be influenced some by
        winds off the water to the South, but not by too much.

        86-88 at Lakeville. yes? No?

            1. Nope. Disagree. I have been there, this time of year under similar conditions. It will be higher than that I assure you. Watch, I’ll end up
              going on Wednesday and won’t be able to verify for you.

              If it is Wednesday that we go, I could bring my old weather station display which has an indoor temperature sensor and stick it in the shade somewhere to get a temperature reading. Or even bring the old outdoor sensor itself.:D

  5. Had a fantastic dinner last evening with the family at Luciano’s in Wrentham.
    Food was out of this world as was the company. I loved this restaurant. Truly outstanding.

    We got home about 9 and put on the Olympics and while watching we kept hearing noise (music). My wife was wondering what it was and I told her it must be Pearl Jam at Fenway. I googled events at Fenway and sure enough Pearl Jam was performing.
    We could hear Eddie Vedder singing, the guitars wailing, the bass lines and of course the drum beat. We didn’t miss a beat. I guess that goes to show how close my house is to Fenway. 😀

  6. Its early but looks more like heavy rain threat with storms than severe but again its early.

  7. Thank you TK

    Thank you also, JPD, for the explanation of setting up your system for Wunder. I think that is more than exciting.

    Am I correct that you have your anemometer on a deck and not on rooftop?

    1. Unfortunately, yes. My wife won’t allow me on the roof. Plus the risk isn’t
      worth it as there are so many trees lining our house on one side that
      they block the wind totally from the SE, E and NE and wind from the NW W and SW gets pushed up against the trees and would not be close to accurate anyway.

      I compromised the best I could knowing full well the wind speed and direction
      would not be accurate. Best I could do. I was more concerned with getting
      an accurate rainfall measurement. And I have it in a very good location for that.

      With so many trees, not much that can be done.

      1. I would have to do the same. We have trees and a hill behind the house or I’d try to set it on the hill. And getting on the roof is definitely not worth it. I figure I get a pretty accurate wind measurement from the Wunder site near here and I agree that it is nice having rainfall.

        Good luck and have fun with yours

        1. Thank you. Am enjoying it so far. Just waiting for
          some rain to see IF I need to calibrate it or not.

          I suppose I could test it, but it takes 20 minutes and
          I don’t have the time or inclination to do so.

          I’ll see what the 1st rain produces. IF it doesn’t look right,
          I’ll take the time to calibrate properly. 😀

    1. Now with that I am in total agreement. Sorry for the confusion there.
      I feel better now. We are usually in reasonable sync with each other. 😀
      I wonder on occasions, however. 😀

      Did you see my weather station on wundermap.

      I have been watching it. I find it pretty fascinating.

      I suspect because of my sensor location, that sunny afternoon (ie today)
      temperature readings will be a bit high. With my 2 day experience, in
      the bright sunshine, it runs as much as 3 degrees high.

      It showed a high of 94 on Saturday, when 91 was about it. And it showed 93
      yesterday, when 90 was about it. As soon as the sun goes in, the temperature
      becomes 100% accurate.

      The sensor has a built in solar powered fan in attempt to get accurate
      temperature readings. The problem is, my sensor is elevated on a 2nd floor
      porch deck railing post, about 3 to 3 1/2 feet above an asphalt roof with
      a wooden deck on top of it. Not 100% ideal, I know, but the only real place
      I could install this thing. I could have put in on a pole or post in the middle
      of the back yard 5 or 6 feet off the ground, however, I would not get
      even close to any wind readings and the rain gauge would be suspect. (too many trees nearby). So I compromise. What can I do?

  10. 12z NAM bullish on CAPE for Thursday with a lot of SNE greater than 1,500 CAPE values. When I click on the soundings however on the cod site despite the CAPE being that high only indicating marginal severe.

  11. However when you click on the soundings on the COD site for eastern parts of MA at 0z time period there are areas where severe is possible and even weak tornado.
    As we know the NAM is aggressive and I would not rule out a locally strong severe storm I think heavy rain is the biggest concern at this time.

  12. So far, 12z data combined with applied meteorology leads me to believe that Wednesday is going to be a fairly benign day for most of the region.

    I see an initial thrust of warm/moist advection that may produce a general shower area, not long enough for widespread beneficial rain, then a suppression of much of the activity back to the south as it will be fairly warm aloft. Later, a trigger zone (trough) will be located to the west and north but will probably fire storms outside of the WHW forecast area then progress into the region overnight after everything dissipates.

      1. Well I have not ruled out storms Wednesday. I just think the timing won’t favor them in most of the area.

        Thursday, it’s possible some action may sneak into the South Coast as they will be closer to some deeper moisture. For now I don’t have it in the forecast.

  13. Keep in mind when looking at these runs that nearly always, as in 99.9% of the time, the GFS as well as some of the higher res guidance, particularly the 12km NAM, over-represent rainfall coverage. They make nearly every event look like a wash-out. Use this knowledge to your advantage.

    1. It says just “pond” There is another about 1/2 mile away that
      says “on the pond”. That one is not mine.
      And mine clearly says Jamaica Plain, so I am not sure which one you
      are seeing.
      Mine is SSE of the center of the pond. Just above the AI in Jamaica Plain
      on the map. 😀

  15. Another note on the models, specifically the GFS…

    There has been a lot of inconsistency, even more than I typically see, on the various operational runs beyond 240 hours, so don’t put too much stock in these for now.

    1. With any luck!!! I will be out looking. I posted yesterday that the peak viewing is (from what I read on the NASA site) August 11/12. The moon sets at 1:00 am on the 12th and that should clear the sky for viewing. They believe there will be about double the normal amount because we are passing more through the field rather than at its edge.

  17. has the 12Z Euro lost it’s mind? Shows a lot of rain starting the weekend with a preview
    for Wednesday.

  18. A couple more tweets from Ryan Hanrahan for the upcoming week
    Conditional severe weather threat on Wednesday with very strong wind shear and a bit of instability.

    Thunderstorms likely on Wednesday! Some towns could see locally heavy rain.

  19. Little twitter chatter with Ryan on those tweets among meterologists
    Andrew Loconto
    Geek-speak: huge warm-cloud depth off that sounding. Would lead to heavy rainfall, among other indicators like high PWATs.
    Ryan’s Response
    I know. NAM probably overdone but a lot of collision-coalescence there!

    Capecodweather.net it’s a strange set-up…good instability burst with that theta-e punch

    2. Not for nothing, but 18Z NAM shunts most of that rain off to the South.
      Still gives Southern CT and the South Coast a fair amount of rain, but
      on the 18Z run, that huge slug that covered most of CT and into part of MA, is shunted to the South.

    3. A lot of met’s, wanting to be the one to “break the news” about drought relief, will put stock in poorly-performing guidance instead of using meteorological insight. We need to be on the lookout for that over the next few days. 🙂

      1. Wasn’t brought up at my University. 😀

        Oh wait, they didn’t have a meteorology program. In fact, they
        were few and far between when I went to college. 😀

        Here were my college courses that we as close as I could get:

        Physical Geography
        Climatology
        ThermoDynamics
        Astronomy

        Then of course the heavy duty Math course like
        Differential Equations, which is used throughout meteorology
        and atmospheric physics. 😀

        I think I “may” have heard that term when I was working
        for the Weather Radar Unit of Air Force Cambridge Research Labs. I heard many a term while working there. It was the most awesome experience I have ever had.

        There is an indescribable feeling one gets when powering up
        and operating a full-fledged weather radar. Pure awesomeness!!

  21. Very soupy air on the way for an extended period starting Wednesday. Unsettled as well. I think the big question is how widespread any heavy rainfall will be. The potential will certainly exist for localized heavy amounts for several days given the sort of air mass we’ll be in. But it’s probably more likely that the heavier amounts are isolated. Same thing with severe weather: maybe a few places get stronger storms in the Wed-Mon time frame, but more the exception than the rule.

    TK, if you’re around, any thoughts on sky cover Thursday night? Looks like that’s the peak night for the Perseids. I’m really hoping for clear skies and a great show, but given the air mass I have some concerns for clouds.

      1. Thanks TK!

        And yes, collision coalescence, takes me right back to intro to atmospheric science my first semester, one of the first things we learn!

  22. This is nice air. All of a sudden I am get a dew point reading of 48 Degrees at my house.
    Logan DP is 55, BUT they have an East wind transporting in a bit more humidity. 😀

  23. As far as I’m concerned the majority of forecasters are getting far too excited about a fairly thick middle overcast and a few areas of light to moderate rain that rapidly cross parts of southern New England on Wednesday. It will likely end up largely inconsequential both in terms of thunderstorms/severe weather, and drought relief.

    1. But it sounds like even still, I should select Thurday as the day to spend
      on the lake down in Lakeville and NOT Wednesday, If at all possible.

      Correct? thanks

      1. That’s the leaning. But I could see a couple things happening that make me not want to say it’s a lock…

        1) The Wednesday event could end up being earlier in the day when most of the cloud cover and shower threat would be, and then the afternoon could end up nicer with any t-storms staying far N & W.

        2) A front will be nearby Thursday, and may hang up close enough to the South Coast that my current forecast of little or no rain is wrong and there is more cloudiness and at least the threat of showers there.

        Let’s re-evaluate tomorrow morning.

    2. Point of origin is high northeast sky, toward Perseus, or the “omega” constellation. Best time is midnight to 4AM.

      2. In other words – behind me when I’m driving home from work. I guess I’ll take the cat outside to look at them when I get home. She likes stargazing. Seriously, I bring her out on the deck when I get home and I tell her to look at all the stars while I’m holding her, and she looks up and all around.

        1. Love the kitties.
          My friend has a cat that loves to be held up near the ceiling and he stares at it and looks around from there.

  26. 00z NAM 4km res gives Boston a total of about 0.05 inch of rain for Wednesday, while the 00z NAM 12 km res, obviously on some kind of performance-enhancing drug, gives a whopping 0.20 inch. Better start the ark!

  27. Thursday is looking ugly….mid to upper 90s, dewpoints near or over 70. Ugh. Not going to be a fun evening to be at the Pats game in Foxboro.

  29. Looking ahead, I can’t say I’m confident Boston will get much rain the next 7 days or so. We’ll get a few showers and maybe a downpour, but I think most of the activity will be north and west of Boston. It’s very much hit or miss in the vicinity of Boston, and judging on recent history “miss” will be the operative word. I’m headed to Vermont this weekend so I’ll definitely see rain, but that won’t help us coastal folks.

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