Tuesday Forecast

83 Comments

8:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 9-13)…
One more day of low humidity and lots of sun, though some clouds arrive later in the day as the first signs of increasing warmth and moisture aloft arrive. This portends a change in the weather, and we’ll feel it in the form of several days of increased humidity, more heat, and some opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, however these will be limited, at least initially. The first shot at unsettled weather comes fairly early Wednesday as the humid air makes its arrival and a disturbance rapidly crosses the region. This may bring an area of at least light rain but possibly some embedded heavier from west to east during the mid morning to early afternoon Wednesday. Later in the day rain will be hard to find and while a few isolated showers and thunderstorms may pop up, odds favor them being far west and north of much of southern New England and probably weakening before they’d have any chance to travel into the region. At this point, Thursday looks shower/thunderstorm-free, with only isolated to scattered activity expected Friday and Saturday. Although any storms that could potential form late in the week could be quite heavy, expect this once again to be the exception rather than the rule.
TODAY: Mostly sunny through early afternoon then partly cloudy mid afternoon on. Highs 79-85 coast, 86-91 interior. Wind light variable with coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 60-65 except 65-70 urban areas. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with a couple areas of rain or showers. Partly cloudy later in the day. Increasingly humid. Highs 78-84 South Coast, 85-91 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a slight risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm early, then mostly clear. Humid. Lows 62-67 except 67-72 urban areas. Wind SW under 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 80-88 coastal areas, 88-96 interior. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 64-74, warmest urban areas. Highs 80-86 coast, 87-94 interior.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 64-74, warmest urban areas. Highs 80-92, coolest Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 14-18)…
Humid with a shower/thunderstorm risk August 14. Drying trend August 15-16 with fair weather. Fair, warm, increasingly humid August 17-18.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 19-23)…
Shower/thunderstorm risk may come early in the period breaking the humidity with a cooler/drier mid period before heat and humidity returns later in the period.

83 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Thank you, TK.

    Lots of mention of heat and humidity in that forecast. Sure cannot complain about the past few days.

    I have noticed lawns are improving somewhat. Ours is greener and feels less like hay when you walk on it. We have not changed water and are watering less than the ban allows. I wonder if it is because of the dew that is now settling on the grass overnight and remaining into the morning hours.

    1. No changed in un-watered lawns up this way. Parched. The grass in some cases is disintegrating and leaving only dirt patches. Your passing storms the other day no doubt helped temporarily.

      2. These are all watered lawns. Most here water every day and their lawns were still stressing. We only water 3x/week. It could well be the rain the other day since we received an inch. There is an abundance of weeds also. But none of the houses in our neighborhood have any shade other than the little the house provides.

        I have patches too, Keith. From the dog. I’ve never seen a dog leave craters in a lawn.

  2. Good morning and thank you Tk for the update.

    Regarding Thursday for Lakeville, looks like that is the best day.
    Still think 89 for Lakeville? OR would you like to bump that up to say 92.
    I’m thinking 92 there. Assuming we go, I’ll let you know.

    Another question: We are supposed to attend a wedding at Rockport, Maine on
    8/20. Any early thoughts on the weather? We also attend a pre-wedding clam
    bake on the evening of the 19th. And this all will be right on the water, not inland
    at all. My wife has no clue what clothes to bring, knowing in coastal Maine
    one could literally freeze, depending. Plus we could be in a sauna. Who knows.

    Many thanks

    1. I’ll bump it up to the lower 90s based on the current thinking of nearly full sun. Yesterday, I was concerned about a lot of cloudiness and even a few South Coast showers. I’m no longer worried about that.

      As for 8/20, I know many people with big outdoor activities, including myself. With low confidence in the deterministics but moderate confidence in the general pattern I feel OK about it this far out.

      1. Thank you for that. When you say OK, you specifically mean
        no rain or tropical event. However, any thoughts as to temperature and wind? Many thanks.

  3. 6Z 4KM NAM has a whopping 0.20 inch for Boston from Wednesday’s showers.
    There’s a drought buster for you.

    32KM NAM has 0.27 inch

    GFS has 0.05 inch

    I think we can safely KISS GOOD-BYE any thoughts of meaningful rain
    for Wednesday. What a bummer.

    Now we shall see how much those figures change with the 12Z runs

    1. I have my doubts about much happening around here at all both Friday and Saturday.

      We may actually get most of our rain (whatever we get) about Sunday night and Monday.

      1. Oh, I knew that. Just reporting what the good ole GFS had
        to say. If its’ anything like the Winter, those parameters
        will be gone come the 12Z run. 😀

  6. I sometimes hesitate to voice it, but I have real issues with NWS lately.

    For one, the wording and grammar used in the discussions makes me wonder who is writing these discussions. One example I will site is on several occasions in the discussion, the phrase “relief in the heat” is used. The proper phrasing is “relief from the heat”. Nit-picky? I don’t think so. This is important, in my opinion.

    And how about a lesson in talking about certain things too far in advance? We could find an instance of this in almost every discussion, but today we’ll focus on the recent discussion in which “tornadogenesis” was mentioned several days in advance regarding Wednesday. Today, they are “not overly concerned about strong or severe storms” for the same day. Don’t confuse this with changing weather / models. The issue here is using a term in a product that is unfortunately easily accessible by the public. And you know exactly what many will take away from it. “We’re supposed to have tornadoes Wednesday.” And forget about updates. Once they hear it, that’s the forecast. It’s the mindset of the majority of the public these days, to key on the strongest words, even if they are not in an “official” forecast. This is a big problem which can be avoided in most cases if the meteorologists practice reason and restraint where applicable. I don’t think this is a difficult task.

    And to further this problem, today’s discussion is already talking in absolutes about widespread heavy rain 5 and 6 days from now. High risk – high reward doesn’t really apply in weather forecasting.

    1. Well stated sir. You hesitate, but you know I have bitched about them for
      years. My wife has strong thoughts about them as well, especially the guy that
      keeps mentioning tornadoes. I don’t want to even remotely offend anyone, so I will refrain from mentioning what she says. I will just restate in nice terms and say that she thinks they (or someone in the office) takes the most extreme
      outcome from a single model and runs with it. (my words: for example one
      model might show some elevated helicity and the forecaster inserts strong
      wording about tornadoes. Or one model shows an instense N’oreaster and the forecaster inserts strong wording about a blizzard and on and on it goes….)

      To summarize, I AGREE totally and completely 100%.

      1. Here’s another issue from today’s zone forecast…

        Thursday excerpt: “Warmer with highs in the mid 90s”
        Friday excerpt: “Hot with highs in the lower 90s”

        So I guess lower 90s is hot, while middle 90s is just “warmer” and not “hotter”. 😛

        1. That kind of inconsistency drives me NUTS!! I can’t stand it. Some of these people have ZERO logic in their minds.
          NONE whatsoever. No common sense either.

        2. They don’t write the zone forecasts and haven’t for years. They do everything graphically and the computer then words everything based on the graphics. Since Thursday will be significantly “warmer” than Wednesday, that’s why it used that word.

  7. Thanks TK
    6z GFS looks like the NAM normally does and is aggressive for Saturday. Bulk shear is less than 30 knots but other parameters are good. This will disappear on 12z run. Still looks more like heavy rainfall and not a severe weather threat with storms that fire.

    1. Gee, what a surprise. Outside of isolated, there will be very little rain anywhere in southern New England through Saturday.

  10. NAM to me clueless shows a good amount of instability over CT and RI in night time hours tomorrow then shows a good amount of instability Thurs and Fri afternoon for SNE.

  11. Thank you, TK.

    I’ll go out on a limb and say that not a single drop of rain will fall in Boston tomorrow. Actually, given recent history that’s a fairly sturdy limb to go out on. I am hoping we get some rain this weekend. We’ll see. This said, I am NOT looking forward to heat and humidity. My body (mostly my migrainous head) is at a point where it’s saying `no mas.’

    1. You may be correct. The qpf is less and less with each run.
      12Z Euro today has practically nothing for Boston, but does have some
      rain just to the North. 😀

      1. I’m hearing reports that it isn’t serious. They most likely saw it. They said he threw his helmet down and walked off the field. I believe it is to his previous injury.

        1. I heard Scott Zolack on the radio and I thought he
          was going to die. Were he and Mark Bertrand ever
          giving it to the Patriots of letting him back in action
          so soon after surgery. BAD on them. Bad, very very
          BAD.

          I think it is MORE serious than anyone will say at the moment.

          I surely hope not. We shall see.

  13. GFS is gradually revealing ways (not taking model verbatim) that the “big rain” threat can fail. And regardless of that, it looks like we continue the dry pattern right after that.

  15. Nice day today and relatively comfortable. But the sun, as I have mentioned previously is So Hot. Took a little walk and could feel the sun practically bake through my clothes. And it’s not just this time of day; I have felt the sun like this even around 6:00 p.m. or so a few days ago. Sun’s angle is already changing; but it’s still hot.

    I wonder how warm the water is off the New England coast. Bet it’s really warm. If any tropical system comes up in the next month or so – hmmm. But I don’t see that happening anytime soon, ‘though I could be wrong.

    1. Pattern remains unfavorable for tropical development in the classic area for another week or so.

      The water temps are upper 60s to lower 70s just offshore. There are some middle 70s south of Long Island.

      Ocean temps are not usually a major factor in tropical systems in New England, as the vast majority of our cyclones are ones that are in transition between tropical and post-tropical, and are usually moving quite rapidly. What counts is what is going on south of here in terms of keeping a storm sustained on its approach.

  16. 12z GFS putting the bullseye with the instability on CT for the weekend. We shall see.
    At least give me some good thunderstorms to break the spell of heat and humidity were going to have.

  18. Was out in the Copley Square area. Rather robust sea breeze blowing, even there.
    Could notice the coolness in the air. Pretty decent sea breeze here at the office.
    It is having zero effect at home. My sensor is reading 89 which is probably about
    3 degrees high for reasons I have explained a couple of times.
    So probably 86 at my house.

    Just recently noticed Dew Points creeping upward.

    At my house currently 59 DP. I see also it is 59 at the airport.
    At least my sensor is reasonable. That’s something.

    1. Pressure reading 1022.9 at the airport.
      My sensor at home is reading 1022, so I am very pleased with
      that reading for sure.

    2. The higher dew point is directly related to the sea breeze. Just a few miles inland from both the eastern and southern coastal areas it drops 5 to 10 degrees.

        1. Theirs came from the south coast sea breeze which made a significant jog northward in the last hour. The east coast sea breeze came inland a distance too. I have it here about 8 miles straight line from the coast.

  19. 18Z NAM has 0.24 inch for Boston tomorrow. That’s better than nothing. I’ll take it.
    Now waiting to see what 4KM NAM has to say.

  20. Cape greater than 1,000 on 18z NAM tomorrow and clicking on some of the soundings across SNE indication of marginal severe. I don’t buy severe tomorrow although wouldn’t be surprised at some point with this air mass that will be in place there will be that locally strong to severe storm.

  21. WOW! 4KM NAM Looks MIGHTY DRY for the Boston area tomorrow as in…
    Joshua, you looking
    NOTHING to at most a trace. Still a few frames to go, but NOT looking good at all.

    BAD NAM, very very bad NAM, which probably means it’s nearly 100% accurate. 😀

    1. I remember that one. I was pissed that it went over LI and crapped out.
      I actually got on the neighbors roof and took down their tv antenna for them in
      anticipation of a big blow. The only blow that came was to my ego!
      Some weatherman I was. ha ha ha

  25. NOW, after that I am Ready to VOMIT as in:

    V O M I T () !@U)*(#$&*!@&#*(&!@*(#&!*()@#&*(!&@#*(&!*(@

    1. TK, you are good as in DAMN good.

      I nominate you for channel 4 chief meteorologist.
      Eric can go pound sand!

  26. I wouldn’t expect more than a trace of rain in Boston tomorrow. Tomorrow’s not the only opportunity, we’ll get to try again by the weekend, but what a struggle it is.

    The potential lack of rainfall the next several days is all the more remarkable given just how tropical our air mass will be. Very extended period of extremely high PWAT values for our region. To not take advantage of this would be very unfortunate. I haven’t given up on the weekend, it’s simply too early to know for sure, but the trend this summer has certainly been for any widespread rain chances to go by the wayside.

    Biggest weather story the next few days will probably be the dangerous heat index values at least Thursday-Friday.

  27. Just checked in and noticed a camp named after me – “Camp Joshua.” Probably a very dry camp, weather-wise but also in terms of humor and wine.

    I think I will see rain this weekend, because I’m headed to north country. My sister tells me that they’ve gotten their fair share of storms and rain in Vermont. Not a lot, but enough to keep things fairly green. I’ll report on what I see. I do think storms and some steady rain will impact that part of New England this weekend (technically she’s on the `border’ between central and northern NE).

  28. Had a nice ferry ride across the Bay of Fundy from Digby to St John and made it to just south of Calais, ME.

    Lots of high, thin cirrus has overspread the sky, must be the approaching heat and humidity.

    Saw the heat indice forecasts for Thursday through Saturday, yikes ……

    Can’t help but notice on the EURO that eventually once the Bermuda high breaks down some to moderate the coming heat, it looks like another ridge with very warm 850 on temps is waiting in the wings in the central plains.

    3. I’ve always wanted to see the extreme tidal range of the Bay of Fundy. It sounds so impressive. Some day!

  29. 18z GFS backs off on the wet scenario just a bit, but we’ll see more of this in runs to come.

  31. it may be wishful thinking, but both the HRRR and the RAP “hint” at perhaps “some”
    rain getting in here tomorrow. We shall see. Waiting on the 0Z NAMS. 😀

    1. Mid to late morning until very early afternoon, but it looks more impressive than it will actually be.

      Wildcard is if any additional storms fire behind that area. I think a few do, but not widespread.

  32. 00z data + applied meteorology = I’m not that impressed with the amounts of rain that the majority of the region is going to see during the next 7 days.

  34. OK, now most of the models want to bring us at least some rain today.
    Let us hope so. The models were really having their troubles, that’s for sure.

    Will they verify? Time will tell.

    btw, HRRR now showing additional convection this afternoon after shortwave and initial rain passes. Again, we shall see.

    DP up to 64 here and climbing.

    1. Observing radar trends, it appears that most of the action wants to
      slide “just” to the North of Boston, with the Southern edge waivering in and
      out of Boston? Could it slide farther South? I hope so.

      Also of note: there is another area of rain blossoming in LI and Southern and Central CT. Can that expand into the Boston area?

      Don’t know just yet. Will continue to monitor.

      With our luck this Summer, Boston will probably be in the void between the
      2 rain areas.

  39. In over 20 years of living in Boston I have never seen the Boston Common in such bad shape. Most of the grass looked like dirt fields.

    1. Indeed . The grass is done till next season . This fall when the nights get a tad cooler make sure you fertilize as it will help it out . I laugh when I see people out there watering . Feel bad for the guys who cut grass for a living as there is nothing to cut . I was talking this week with a landscaper friend and he said he has never seen the grass like this as its just like hay at least what I’m seeing .

  41. It now looks like the rain that looked to be slipping North, will actually move across
    the Boston Area. Let’s hope it remains reasonably potent. 😀

    Each HRRR runs spits out an ENTIRELY different qpf. Amazing.

    2. It’s just placement of heavier convective cells. It’s going to be vary run to run in sometimes grand fashion. It’s the overall idea/trend we need to monitor.

      There is no way to pinpoint precip. amounts with this set-up.

      1. Oh, I get and understand that. I just fascinates me that one
        run shows 1.41 inches for Boston and the next run is .81 inches
        and the next run is .41 inches, each run separated by one stinken hour. 😀

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