Sunday Forecast

214 Comments

8:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 14-18)…
Back into the heat today but a cold front approaching from the northwest will ignite additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Monday-Thursday, the front will be hanging out nearby, probably staying just far enough south for dry weather Monday, sliding northward for a couple days of shower threats Tuesday-Wednesday, then back to the south again for dry weather Thursday.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 76-82 Nantucket, 82-90 South Coast, 90-97 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Humid. Lows 65-74, warmest urban areas. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 77-83 South Coast, 84-91 elsewhere.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Humid. Lows 60-70, warmest urban areas. Highs 78-86, coolest South Coast.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 60-68. Highs 76-84, coolest Cape Cod.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 60-68. Highs 77-86, coolest Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 19-23)…
High pressure will dominate with fair weather August 19-21. A few showers are possible August 22-23 with more humidity. Temperatures above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 24-28)…
Warm to hot, limited shower/storm chances.

214 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK!

    According to Barry Logan received 0.4″

    JPD, how much for you? Hopefully the rain gauge was finally able to get some work in for a change. 😀

  2. Well then. Good morning….again,

    Thanks! TK

    I think I’m awake. What a night.

    Cannot remember last time I was able to enjoy three warned storms in less than 12 hours. Each was different and each was stronger than the prior. Very nice.

    JPD and JJ so glad you got into the fun

    North….you awake? 😉

    1. Thanks TK and good morning. Plan was to get up at 7 and get out and do my errands before it gets too hot. That didn’t happen after being up until 3! The thunder was very loud with those storms too. I should also mention that much of the afternoon yesterday we heard thunder and never actually got a storm.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Let’s see IF we can do it again today.

    Grand total for 2 events last night and early this morning:

    0.57 inch

    I’ll very gratefully take that. Hoping for a repeat today. Probably not, but we shall
    see. We’re in the soup.

    Currently 79 with dp 74 here.

  5. YIKES!!

    DP just went up to 76!!!

    Sure hope we don’t get into that crap that was in NYC yesterday!!!!!!

  6. NWS discussion:

    Just like yesterday afternoon, the biggest question is if
    thunderstorms will develop and if so what is the area coverage.
    While the airmass is primed with plenty of moisture and instability,
    there appears to only be surface frontogenesis rather than upper
    level support. This is thanks to building heights aloft. Therefore
    believe that isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop along
    the surface boundary as it slowly move southward through the
    afternoon. Low confidence for widespread convection. Increasing
    confidence in strong to severe thunderstorms thanks to ML CAPE
    values near 2000 j/kg and 0-6 km shear 30-35 kts. However if
    shortwave does get closer then convection could become more organized
    along the front resulting into a line segment or two esp in the
    later afternoon. Main threat with these storms is heavy
    rain resulting in flooding and damaging wind gusts.

  8. Last evening you could feel something was gonna happen. Today I’m not feeling this as much. The instinctual part of forecasting? Maybe.

    1. I think we knew that. It’s not over yet, though.

      Interestingly, the 6Z 4KM NAM has ZILCH for us, absolutely ZILCH.

      HRRR is bullish, but we saw how well that performed yesterday.

      And your reasoning? What the NWS said: building heights aloft?
      Not strong enough front and thus lift?

      CAPE will be high with Lifted index low as in -7 or so and Dew points
      high as in mid 70s.

      Some nice positive factors and some negative so you feel the negative will
      win out?

      I sincerely hope you are wrong and that doesn’t happen very often. 😀

      1. Ahh, now I know why. Wink wink.

        You feel the timing of the next short wave will be too little, too late.

        ie, no support for showers and TS.

      2. HRRR was horrible the entire day yesterday, as were most of the futurecasts that the Mets used that used that model.

  11. JPD. Glad your new weather system got a workout. One of my sons friends is a weather enthusiast. He has been looking at Davis units which I understand are more expensive. I’m hoping he will,join WHW. I’m going to check my router today and talk to accu right. Then pull the plug. I would love to hook into Wunder.

    1. Yes, it does require a router of some sort.
      We have a wireless router with several available ports so all we had
      to do was plug the bridge into a port.

      Depending on your cable hook up, hopefully they have provided you
      with a router with ports.

      You’ll be fine.

      Recommend AcuRite for your son’s friend. Save the money. these units
      are fine and about 1/2 the price of Davis. Of course Davis is excellent quality.

        1. North, Yes, I am satisfied that it is pretty accurate.
          That is the main reason I purchased it. I wanted
          a good rain gauge. The secondary reason was I wanted
          a decent Dew Point sensor and that it has. I’m good.
          I am extremely pleased with it and for me, that is
          saying something because I don’t like anything!

      2. I just looked. we have the router in the basement with one extender on the first and second floor. The extender I use has only two ports and I’m using both. Is it a standalone bridge? If so and if I don’t have to have the unit near it, I can probably plug into basement.

        House has Ethernet but Verizon folks said only two of the six ports were working. I don’t think they knew what they were doing. Flowergirl had been helping me with that. I’m going to try moving my sound system bridge to an Ethernet port and see if that works which will free up a port on the wireless extender

        I’m planning to order the unit once I make sure I can use it properly

        1. The only problem with the basement is the wireless
          signal. The bridge has to communicate with both the
          sensors and what they call the tower or the display unit.
          If the signal is strong enough, you are golden.

          1. Got it. Thanks. Will work on repositioning my sound system bridge. As much as I like weather, music will win out 🙂

        2. I don’t even remember what I advised 🙂 So glad you got 3 storms Saturday! I got one and was VERY happy 😀 So much fun to watch, and so thankful for the rain!

  13. 79.3 with winder 65 DP. We had 1.65 rain yesterday and 0.08 with what seemed to be the worst of the storms early this am. Total since May 2 11.77. We still have an every other day water ban unless I missed a change. They do not get the word out very well. We water only three days a week. I’m going to cut the time per zone and perhaps eliminate zones where it is just grass with no perennials.

    1. that dp is suspect. We’re in the soup. I don’t think 65 is correct.

      dp here has been fluctuating between 74 and 76.

      1. Sorry. Typo. 75 dp. Thanks for catching it My eyes are only a little awake and my brain is completely asleep

      1. we only had 2 and it was awesome. Thunder in the middle of
        the night takes on a different quality. House rattling for sure.

    2. Same here. I’m surprised I didn’t wake since I heard it was quite loud.
      I didn’t miss first storm and was caught off guard while removing a window exhaust fan. WOW! did I jump back when a loud crack scared the bejeebers out of me! HA 🙂

  18. We got .75 inches of rain from last night. We had I think 2 storms last night. The first one was definitely stronger here in Sudbury – especially with the heavy rain. Then there was a lull and then 1 or 2 real loud claps of thunder that even make our cat jump. We got some rain out of that but then we had off and on rumbles of thunder for some time; not that much rain. Nonetheless, as I think TK said, it’s been a long time since we’ve had storms like this in the middle of the night. Kind of scary yet fascinating. Lots of trees so didn’t see much lightning. I am hoping for hoping for more rain again today/tonight without the severity – but we will see. It’s definitely muggy out now but bearable as there is somewhat of a breeze. I’m sure it will warm up rapidly as morning progresses.

  19. Even the HRRR isn’t overly big on activity today, at least compared to yesterday. More scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms as opposed to the widespread storms yesterday. HRRR parallel is showing even less, with the 12z run hardly showing anything. RAP also not impressed.

    I think attention will start turning to Tuesday-Wednesday, which bears watching for additional storm activity.

  20. Just woke up. Was up till about 3:20 last night with all the thunder and lightning (cue Chi Coltrane). The storm seemed to really blow up just to my west and then right over me!!

    We don’t have central AC in the house (just in the bedrooms) but when I went to bed (about 2am) the downstairs areas were in the upper 60s (nice) at 9:30 this morning they are in the mid to upper 70s (uggh).

    At the local reporting stations (there about 5 within a mile and half of me) all are reporting temps in the low to mid 80s and DP’s in the mid to upper 70s. Conservatory Park (the closest to me and on a hill about 90-100 AGL) is reporting a temp of 90 and a DP of 72.

  21. Current dew point at my house is around 74-75! Is this not unusual to have so many days of mid 70 dew points? Seems a bit extreme and certainly feels extreme!!!

    1. I concur.

      What a stretch of mid-70s dew points. It’s disgusting!!!

      Ok, Tk you can chime in and tell us how much you love it! 😀

      Here, temp 85, dp 75 YUCK!

      1. One of my favorite things was walking out of Market Basket in Woburn this morning, well known for its exceedingly low indoor temperature, and being immediately covered in condensation. It was kind of neat actually…

        I was a walking glass of ice water.

        1. And for me ….. It’s my glasses, especially when driving in our car that has super chilly A/C. I have to take my glasses off for a few minutes until they de-fog.

          1. The ridge is only going to gradually weaken through midweek. That’s why I don’t think a rush of dry air comes in, nor do I think it gets all that cool.

            And Tuesday could end up very interesting in parts of southern New England.

              1. Not really. I’ve been watching it for a few days. I just don’t tend to mention stuff too far in advance due to the built-in uncertainty.

  26. DP 77. Checked and immediate Wunder stations in area are right about there but figure it is at least 75.

    Temp 84.4

    Nine year old grandson was out playing for about 30 minutes. Came in dripping wet.
    Not used to seeing a nine year old that affected.

    1. It is brutally bad out there.

      This is absolutely the worst my wife has ever been in the heat.
      She had borderline heat exhaustion/heat stroke just walking into one
      of the un-airconditioned rooms. BRUTAL!!!! Her body cannot regulate
      itself in this kind of weather. She has always had trouble, but this takes
      the cake!

      We are supposed to attend a wedding in Rockport, me next weekend.
      It is in serious doubt right now.

      1. Dave I am so very sorry to hear your wife is having so much trouble. I’d say maybe she can camp in an AC room except that she would be there for days. Even with the AC here, while I was crawling under things and plugging and unplugging internet bridges and connections, I had to stop and sit by fan

        This also serves as a reminder that it is important to check on our elderly family and neighbors.

        1. Thanks, Yes that is a problem, being camped out
          in the same couple of rooms.

          Due to the cool down yesterday, we were able to get out
          to dairy queen last night. That was an accomplishment.

          Don’t know what today will bring. My office is not
          ACd and sitting here, it is 84 in the house. Yuck!

  29. I think we have 2 distinctive personalities to the storm chances today…

    Short wave #1 goes by too far NW to get the afternoon stuff very organized, so look for that to be isolated to scattered with many areas getting missed.

    Short wave #2 comes right across the area tonight between 10PM and 2AM with a more organized cluster of showers and embedded thunderstorms, but probably not as “animated” as the activity last night.

  30. Dew point here has been consistently fluctuating between 74 and 76.

    It touched 76 again a moment ago with temp at 91, heat index 103

  32. Looking ahead to Tuesday 12z NAM as usual spitting out some impressive severe parameters for a good part of the region with its supercell composite helicity EHI values.
    SPC has us in marginal risk Tuesday.

    1. Some of those parameters are off the chart, especially SW CT and Western MA by Springfiled. I saw a km EHI value of 11 near springfield. NEVER have I seen that before, never.

      All of the soundings across that area say risk of tornado.
      Change of wind with height is dramatic.

      However, NONE of those parameters make it into the Boston area, at least not so far. Will monitor, for sure.

  33. A quick look on Wundermap dewpoints and a number of stations in the Taunton area reporting dewpoints 80 and 81 degrees!!!! Most of the rest in the upper 70s!!!!

    Brutal!!!

    Air temp here now 90.3 and 0.20″ in the rain gauge from a midnight downpour.

    My best and concerns for Mrs. OS. I hope she is feeling better real soon.

  34. Just before noon here in North Reading. Just about to hit 90 with a dew point of 77. Heat index = 103. We had about 1 1/2 inches of rain in past week…far from enough, but far, far better than nothing.

  35. Nothing scientific ……

    I can guarantee widespread activity Tuesday, it’s visitors day at the camp my wife volunteers at.

    1. I can guarantee tropical activity on Friday, September 2. We bought tickets for the Deutsche Bank golf tournament at TPC-Norton.

  36. Dave I am not sure if that is a warm front coming through or cold front but some of those values and I know its the NAM and over does everything are values I have never seen that model spit out for this part of the country.
    If other 12z models show this with this being 48 hours away I will take more notice.

    1. Yesterday, EURO had this Tuesday system at 1004 mb. Pressure not as low today, but it’s close to New England as opposed to traveling 500 miles to our north and west where the best dynamics end up being too far away.

      Also, another surge of deep humidity moves in prior to its passage

      The ingredients are there ……

  37. Late Tuesday may end up being the more interesting time period although still watching the radar today for storms.

  39. TK – Barry mentioned on air this morning that the moisture from LA would move northward into the Midwest then eastward toward the Ohio Valley then into NY state then mostly into NNE with the possibility some remnants into SNE. This would happen Tuesday/Tuesday night.

    I gather that you totally disagree with this scenario?

    1. Some of the moisture will get involved, not nearly all of it. Much of it will remain locked up down there and drift into Mexico.

      What does it make it this far north is likely destined for northern New England versus the southern areas.

      1. Thanks TK. Interesting that areas that need it the most (SNE) will not get any. Everything fails in a drought. 🙁

  40. Thank you, TK

    I surrender to mother nature. Seriously, I’m raising the white flag. I must have sinned terribly to have incurred her wrath. I’ll confess. I’ll pay a fine (do higher forces accept credit cards?). I’ll do anything. Please, no more of this 3-H.

    I’m in an air-conditioned space, drinking lots of water, in a coffee shop in my neighborhood. Yet, I’m sweating like Niagara. Unfortunately my blood pressure is way up as well. This weather is taking its toll. It ain’t fun. I know it could be worse – eg, Louisiana. So, I count my blessings. But, I’m at the end of my tether.

  47. Will today be a bust? Not that we were expecting anything inpressive but it’s 2 and there is nothing going on. Perhaps there will be a Cap that will prevent the storms

  48. Jj or jpd can you guys please provide me a link where i can see the CAPE and the LI? I always see you guys posting it here but i can’t se to find it, at least thr maps you provide are easier to read. Thanks in advance

  49. Kane with regards to the Cap I post a tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan earlier and he was saying tough call on storms today front is approaching lots of instability but 500 mb height rise all day which could cap us.

    12z NAM at point where most CAPE is here in SNE
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016081412&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=009

    12z GFS time when most CAPE is here in SNE
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016081412&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=009

    LIFT from 12z GFS
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016081412&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=009

  51. I would be SHOCKED if the SPC issued a severe thunderstorm watch for our
    area today. Absolutely SHOCKED!

  53. They mention in the discussions its isolated so with that I don’t see a watch being issued either.

  55. 96 with a 75 dewpoint here at the Storm HQ World Headquarters compound. I had 0.29″ from the activity last night. There’s a personal wx station on Weather Underground about 2 blocks from me, and their values are usually very similar to mine, as you’d expect. https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=pws:KMABROCK5

    Thought it was interesting that the rain held off at Fenway until the last pitch last night. Of course, it was a rather soggy walk back to Kenmore for the T (perhaps grabbing a bite to eat after the game was a bad idea). Headed back into the city tonight to go see Boston at the Wang Theater for their 40th anniversary tour. Have yet to see them live, so here’s another band to knock off the old bucket list.

  56. Thanks u jj and Jpd for the information. I don’t really see any towering cumulous. Air looks stable. I hope that changes

  58. Boston Harbor Buoy (16 NM out) reporting a water temp of 77.9F.

    The Cape is really hot today. Quite generally 88F to 90F.

      1. Ok, I looked it up! WOW! and double WOW!!!

        BOSTON — Mookie Betts is now in select company with Ted Williams as the only players in Red Sox history to have two three-homer games in the same season.

        Recently moved to the No. 3 spot in the batting order due to his increased power, Betts smashed a two-run homer in the first, a three-run shot in the second and a three-run blast in the fifth in Sunday’s game against the D-backs. All of them went over the Green Monster in left.

  61. Well, at least for now, there goes the chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
    As expected, the SPC took down the Mesoscale discussion and did NOT issue
    a watch.

  62. I see a current reading of 97 at the airport.

    My sensor is reading an even 100, but I know that is a few degrees high under
    these conditions. 😀

  63. I cannot remember who mentioned the peach crop being nonexistent. We went to an open house at a farm in Suttom today. During the tour of the house itself, the woman mentioned the Sutton Beauty Apple developed back in the 1800s. She said they still have two trees on the property but they lost their crop along with peaches in the April snowstorm we had…..both frost and snow.

    1. Depends on the variety. A lot of the Apple crop should be ok. The apple blooms weren’t as far along as the peach blond were in late March. As much as I like warmer weather, that warm spell in March really messed up the fruit trees, and several various of plants. A lot of hydrangea’s havent bloomed either. I’ve got one measly bloom on mine. On the other hand, the black eyed Susan’s love the heat and humidity. Mine have more flowers this year than the last several years.

      1. Exactly. My point was about the peaches and not apples. I suspect most apple crops will be fine. It was just two trees of Sutton beauties that she referred to. But the question here the other day was about peaches

        Ahhhhhhhhh so is tha why our hydrangeas didn’t bloom? We had beauties in framingham. Two here has the “sticks” and some told us to cut them and others said leave them. I’d always left our sticks in framingham. I know you do cut the sticks for some. I thought perhaps the advice to leave the sticks had been wrong. Now I feel better

  64. Got another 0.84″ last night. That puts me at 3.38″ for the month so far.
    89 degrees with a dew point of 71.
    Best summer in 3 years. Could use a little more rain, but I love the HHH. I got out of the pool and wasn’t chilled. Love the high dew points.

    1. That total is “about” average for the entire month and we’re not quite
      1/2 through the month. That’s awesome. Lawns must be getting green
      out your way.

      1. They look ok. Lawns that weren’t watered are still pretty brown, but I expect them to bounce back a little soon. I water every 3 days or so. Mine wasn’t really growing, but enough to keep it green. It’s growing now and needs a mow. I’m having it cored the week of the 29th and having part of it slice seeded. Some of it’s getting a little thin and the spurge weed has gotten kind of bad.
        We never have too long without rain out here. Seems we get under the path of t-storms. They don’t die out until they get east of 495. We have lots of water reserves. The ponds around here recharge the wells and they stay pretty full. Don’t get me wrong, there’s stress on the vegetation, but not as bad as further east.
        I also don’t get too exercised over the brown lawns. That’s an artificial Eco system. I watch the trees and natural vegetation for stress to tell me how dry it really is.

  69. Vicki…I was the one who posted the peach crop wipeout. I stopped by the farmer’s market and asked about the peaches. I always buy some in August. The vendor told me that the freeze destroyed them. She told me February, but Ace and Blackstone said that it was the warm March, then the cold April.

    I miss my annual peaches. Hopefully next summer. 🙁

    The ones I had last year were huge, juicy and super sweet! And that was after the cold, snowy winter 2014-15. 😀

    1. Thanks Philip. She said it was specifically the April,snow. Perhaps she didn’t know to relate it to warmer March!

          1. They’re wrong. It’s cold as a bats ass every February!
            It was the warm March then the April cold that did it.

  70. To me, the sky today looks like one on a 78F day with a dewpoint of 50F.

    No haze, really good visibility and fair weather cumulus. And then you step out of the car or your house ……..

    1. Nope. No big surprise. You just knew it was going to be tougher today. I had an entire sprinkle worth half a trace of rain at Wingaersheek. Awesome weather otherwise, not that the sprinkle was an issue. It felt nice for a few minutes. 🙂

    1. Must be cranking. Just west of me now but looks to go north

      I asked my older daughter how her night was when I saw her this pm. She said she was cursing me through most of it …… I did good huh 🙂

        1. Yes because I love the storms and warned her we could have some in the night. So when kids woke her up for both it was naturally my fault….jokingly of course

      2. No, you will get it for SURE! unless it goes poof within the next
        20 miles, which of course is always possible.

  74. Even if that holds together to the coast, looks like it would pass just to my South, unless it builds Northward. Still dp 70 here and 90 degreees.

  76. Dark cloud starting to show on west northwest horizon.

    I know I beat it to death, but the small boundary exists yet again about where this storm is traveling. SW sfc winds and low-mid 70 dewpoints to its south, W sfc winds and mid 60s to 70 dewpoints to its north.

    1. I have rarely seen clouds this black.

      We should be seeing more lightening than we are. Thunder also sounds further away than radar shows it to be

      1. I wonder if dusk has anything to do with the darkness of the clouds, but I sincerely don’t know.

        That’s been interesting the last couple nights where people have been blogging about where the Lightning/thunder has been in relation to where the cell appears to be on the radar.

        1. I suspect dusk does have to do with it. And the lightening has been in odd places compared to where radar shows

          BlackstoneWX may have gotten this. It pretty much flew by JUST north of me with little fanfare

  78. In a selfish way, I wish Logan wasn’t going to get hit by this cell.

    The 8pm temp is 91F and I’d kind of like to see where the overnight temp would land at without a raincooling shower.

      1. I know it’s not the warmest day of the Thursday-Friday-Sunday timeframe, but somehow, I’m pretty sure it’s the warmest evening of the 3.

  80. It went by so quickly that even though it was close even the kids didn’t hear thunder or see lightening.

    Seems there is a path carved out by the storms for the past three days

  81. Yea, I just had a nice one. Another 0.44″. I can here the ether running off of Hill Street down my catch basin in the reservoir behind my house. In closing in on 4″ for the month. Another .24″ and I’m there.

    1. Based on that you and are are less than 3 miles away. And what a difference that makes. We got 0.04 from this round. Crazy, isn’t it.

      1. It was hitting the 128 belt. It’s progressed a bit further and doesn’t appear to look as intense.

        Just visually, my attention goes to storms whose bottom half look kind of triangular shaped on the radar and as they move east, the southern end is intense and kind of dangles back from the storm towards the southwest.

        I don’t know if I’m explaining that well.

        2. That southern end is about to hit me head on, I’ll let u know how it goes! Heavy rain now and thunder getting closer.

  90. Sorry for that delay. Had to take Mom’s car to the mechanic (routine maintenance) and then walk home, which I enjoyed. Updating now!

  92. Wunder says our DP is 67 but our temp is mid 70s and air feels really nice with a light breeze. Windows open.

    1. I have dp 65 (was 67 when I left the house) with temperature up to 82
      already. It felt a “little” better as that full sauna feeling was gone, but
      it was still uncomfortably “sticky”.

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