Monday Forecast

115 Comments

9:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 15-19)…
A little drying at the surface today, and the edge coming off the heat means it will feel a little more comfortable today as a weak area of high pressure drifts over the region, but some mid and high level moisture will not allow it to be a totally sunny day. Humidity comes back as a warm front crosses the region Tuesday. The low pressure area parenting this front will also send its cold front across the area Wednesday. This frontal combo means a risk of a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms, but again not looking for a widespread beneficial rain. I have a slight concern for some stronger storms at least over interior areas later Tuesday, but will re-evaluate this going forward. Another weak area of high pressure moves in Thursday but a second cold front approaches later in the day, and it may help trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, though they will be the exception and not the rule (a phrase used quite often this summer). High pressure returns Friday making it a great summer day.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing later and allowing for some coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-69, warmest in urban areas. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 77-82 South Coast, 83-88 elsewhere but likely late in the day. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH, shifting to SW late.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 64-72, warmest urban areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 78-86, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms mainly late-day. Lows 62-70, warmest urban areas. Highs 78-88, coolest South Coast.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 58-66, coolest interior valleys. Highs 78-88, coolest Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 20-24)…
High pressure brings great weather for the weekend August 20-21. Slow-moving but weak front brings more humidity and a risk of showers August 22-23. Fair and drier August 24.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 25-29)…
Overall pattern looks dry and warm.

115 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    TK, could you possibly comment on that one cell that intensified over
    Springfield, moved over Worcester and then slipped ever so slightly South
    to pass “Just” South of Boston last night?

    That one was a strong sucker. Curious to know Why it intensified and why/how
    it maintained strength all the way to the coast.

    We got a touch of rain (0.01 inch) and could see lightning and hear thunder.
    My wife kept insisting it was overhead and I kept telling her, NO it is to the South of us. She said she didn’t believe my radar. It was one heck of a light show to our
    South. That storm had plenty of lightning with it.

    That bit of rain added to the humidity as the dp went up to 76!!

    So, in total, I received 0.58 inch for the weekend.

    Re: tomorrow and Wednesday

    A while back it was looking almost Dangerous for tomorrow, but now, I am having
    trouble getting impressed about anything. I suppose we have some timing issues, so
    it still bears watching.

    There will be plenty of shear with change of wind direction with height. So, IF and I do say IF, we can generate any stronger convection, then tornado has to be a concern.
    Now, that is a very big IF. Will continue to monitor.

    The other day, the NAM was showing an EHI value of 11, which I have NEVER seen
    before. Of course, that ain’t gonna happen. But that shows how scary things looked
    previously. That is why we can’t get alarmed by something that shows on models
    a few days in advance.

    More after 12Z runs. 😀

    1. If other models were showing that I would have started to pay attention. The 12z NAM severe parameters were off the charts yesterday with values not typical for this part of the country.

    2. Here is last night’s Euro for 8PM tomorrow.
      This is a shear chart and depicts the shear from the surface to 700 MB or about
      10,000 feet. This shows the wind speed at direction at each height.

      In short, this is a highly sheared environment

      http://imgur.com/a/s8L9T

    3. I watched that cell as it went north of us – across BlackstoneWX – and then headed east. It was moving much faster than cells the day prior.

      What gives me pause is the fact that I have been seeing lightning well after the cell passes – according to radar. I’ve noted it several times in comments. Last night right after a fair amount of time had passed (about 8-10 minutes), there were several vivid cloud to ground bolts just to my east. Daughter txt’d and wanted to know where that lightening had come from since the storm seemed to have passed a while ago.

      Perhaps, it is because I am set up on a hill – sort of – and can see further??

      1. That would be part of it for sure, plus a storm can produce lightning strikes that hit the ground outside the boundaries
        of the storm itself. So lightning could theoretically strike like
        10 miles or more outside of the storm. So if the edge of the storm
        were 15 miles to your East and a bolt was generated from the edge of the storm and propagated Westward, the bolt could hit the
        ground not far from your location.

        Does that make sense? I’m sure TK will correct this IF I am
        wrong. Others?

        1. It does make sense and is what I was thinking was the cause. I suspect it is something that has always occurred but that I have not been able to see having been set down. If that is indeed the case, I do like my new vantage point!!

          Thank you, JPD.

  4. Thanks TK
    SPC has all of SNE in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow. Will see if this changes with the update coming out around 1:30pm today
    Part of their discussion
    DESTABLIZATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER RESULTING IN AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT SPREADING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND…. WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

  5. Looking at the 6z GFS there is enough instability past peak heating to have locally strong or severe storm.
    Clicking on different areas of SNE on the pivotal site the supercell composite at 3z (11pm) is showing a value of 2 for Boston area then you get out towards Worcester Springfield areas values in 4 to 5 range as well as most CT. Tiny pocket in western CT a value of 6.
    Helicity values for same period around 0.8 for Boston area get out towards Worcester Springfield areas your in that 1.5 or just over that and in western parts of CT got 2.0 value.
    GFS isn’t usually this bullish.

  6. Quick peat at 12z NAM at 6z tomorrow night (2am) CAPE values greater than 1,500 for most of SNE. Small pocket with CAPE just over 2,000 in western CT Lift Index value -5
    Bulk Shear values in 31-33 kt range mid level rates 5.5 or just greater EHI values greater than 2.0 in lot of areas couples areas around Springfield at 3.0 supercell composite in the 7 to 8 range for a good chunk of SNE in including Boston area.
    These values are way down compared to yesterday 12z run and are probably still over done some.

  7. Looking over the 12Z NAM products, I see a huge discrepancy between
    the regular NAM and the 4KM NAM. I mean HUGE.

    4KM NAM keeps the severe parameters SOUTH of the Boston area, mainly along
    and just North of the South Coast. Why? Not sure.

    Regular NAM brings them just about up to the Boston area.

    I am getting the distinct feeling that NOTHING will happen. We shall see.

  8. It looks as though the worst of any threat would be overnight tomorrow night
    into Wednesday AM. With severe parameters peaking 9Z- 12Z.

    SREF shows highest Cape and LI at 12Z Wednesday.

    The models appear to be having trouble timing things out. Not sure what is happening, but nothing appears to be clear cut with this situation.

  9. Dave at 03z 12z NAM has EHI values in 5.0 and supercell composite values in 11 12 range.
    Watching the RPM model on tv earlier it looks like one round of showers and storms with the warm front later tomorrow afternoon then the cold front overnight hours will bring another round of showers and storms.
    Certainly enough juice with the 12z NAM for overnight storms.

    1. But look at the 4KM NAM, a different story.

      I am wondering if there perhaps will be a struggle for the warm front to
      get through and thus the parameters are being suppressed to the South.

  10. Q: Why did last evening’s isolated storm maintain itself?
    A: There was a wind-shift / dew point boundary that had come from the South Coast, like the day before, that was sitting in a west-east orientation. The storm fired on this boundary then moved along it with the prevailing wind from a few thousand feet upward.

    Q: Why did I see lightning long after the storm had passed?
    A: 1) Good visibility – i.e., lack of haze. 2) Good view in the direction the storm was as it was moving away. 3) The northern part of the storm complex had transitioned to elevated convection, which is often known for producing cloud-to-cloud and sometimes cloud-t0-ground positive lightning strikes, which originate near the top of the cloud in many cases and are also somewhat brighter than their negative cousins.

    1. Thanks, TK. I am fairly certain that the visibility, as I said above (reading down this time as I always seem to read in wrong direction). We are above tree line except to my immediate NW. I, however, do not have a view of the storm direction as it was to the NW and there are no windows on that side. It was definitely cloud to ground mixed with cloud to cloud – the spiderweb I keep mentioning which is amazing to watch. It was SE and a considerable distance from the cell (according to radar) which I am sure is consistent with lightening traveling away from storm.

      I am quite interested in your comment about transitioning to elevated convection and will look that up as I am sure it will also help me to understand

      As always, I truly enjoy your comments. I am enjoying my new perch in Sutton and the views of the storms as they pass. I do wish I had windows on either end of the house but so far have refrained from chopping a hole in the wall for a better view.

      1. Just the lack of haze would afford better overall view in any direction, land obstructions aside.

      2. I’d do it. I’d hire someone to install one or more windows
        on that side of the house. Why would there be no windows
        on one side of the house??? Strange to me.

        1. It is the case with most new houses. Energy efficiency. This place is wrapped so tight that I think they use next to no oil for winter heating.

          And I agree. Mac was always shaking his head when he saw houses without windows on one side.

          I’m thinking about a bow window in the front which would replace two windows and I could put at least one on the west side. The garage is on the ENE side so I’m out of luck there.

  11. Dave just looking at the 4km NAM and your right total different story than regular NAM.
    During day really aggressive southern parts of CT getting into parts of RI. Boston area really not a whole lot.

  12. 4KM NAM, 21Z tomorrow.
    Along the South Coast. Look at this significant tornado parameter

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2016081512/033/stp.us_ne.png

    super cell composite

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2016081512/033/scp.us_ne.png

    0-1KM Helecity

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2016081512/033/srh01.us_ne.png

    0-3km helicity

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2016081512/033/srh03.us_ne.png

    crossover chart

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2016081512/033/crossover.us_ne.png

    If we get strong convection with these parameters, then someone sees
    a tornado.

    Is there wiggle room to get this stuff farther North?

    Also, a pretty confined area. I am not thinking that ANY model could be that precise
    a day and 1/2 away.

  14. Dave here is a tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan for tomorrow.
    We will be closely monitoring the radar tomorrow. There is a severe weather threat including gusty winds and a tornado. #FirstAlertCT

    1. Oh, I am NOT surprised by that tornado comment at all.
      Looks like the South coast of Connecticut is in the cross hairs.
      Just wondering IF there is any chance all of these parameters
      can move Northward. We shall see.

    2. My concern yesterday was for southwestern New England, where a very juiced up environment will likely be present. If triggered, convection could be nasty. We have 24 hours to figure it out.

  16. I am wondering when the SPC comes out with their update around 1:30pm if you will see southern parts of CT RI upgraded to slight risk.
    12z GFS has supercell composite values for CT in the 4-8 range EHI Values 1.5-3.0 range at 5pm tomorrow. Even some values being shown western and central MA GFS isn’t usually this bullish.
    TK is this with the warm front where that possible gusty wind tornado could happen in the area you mentioned?

  18. Little twitter chatter and a response to Ryan Hanrahan’s tweet which I posted earlier.
    This from CapeCodweather.net who is a meteorologist who forecasts weather on the Cape.
    Here is his response to the tweet.
    low lcls and good turning

    1. Yes, I could see that. The question is, where does the strongest convection
      set up.

      The helicity along with the LOW LCL levels are conducive to tornado development. But nothing happens without adequate convection.
      Need strong CAPE values as well.

  19. This is a percentage of top 15 analogs exceeding one severe weather report within 110 km of grid point.
    This tweet from Jared Gold where you could see the map and all of SNE has a percentage tomorrow. Jaret is a mesoscale convection and mid latitude cyclone expert.
    https://twitter.com/JaretGold?lang=en

    1. Just because he claims to be an expert doesn’t mean that he is. In fact, I can’t find anything about him on the internet other than his claim that he is an expert because he “correctly forecast Sandy.”

  20. This tweet from Eric Fisher for tomorrow
    A lot of helicity on the warm front tomorrow…going to have to keep an eye out for rotating storms, IMO.

    A little twitter chat question for Eric
    so that mean tornadoes

    Eric’s Response I certainly wouldn’t rule one out tomorrow in SNE

  21. I hypothesize that those instability values being projected in CT and western MA may also be present a bit further north and west than that.

    This particular ridge has demonstrated its strength and it almost appears on the 500mb charts to restrengthen or build back slightly west one more time tomorrow.

    I think the models have trended a bit N and W with the surface low track and I think that perhaps, it might be also reasonable to expect the max instability to extend a bit further north and west than currently shown.

  22. SPC expands slight risk to include far western MA and CT. Rest of SNE still in marginal risk.
    BUT A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
    WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO AND INTERACTING
    WITH WARM FRONT WHERE BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
    STRONGER. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT…BUT A CONDITIONAL
    RISK ALSO EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. WILL MAINTAIN 15% SEVERE
    PROBABILITIES THIS UPDATE…BUT AN ENHANCED MIGHT BE INTRODUCED IN
    LATER UPDATES ONCE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION

  23. Based on some of the 12z runs I would have put the slight risk further in CT particularly the southern part of state.

  24. A question for Eric and his response. If I see any other tweets and twitter chat of I’ll post. Its nice to hear different perspectives.
    Question for Eric mostly Western new England?
    Eric’s Response
    no I think this could extend into eastern Mass…high-res guidance pretty bullish on active warm front

    1. Now there is an interesting take.

      From what I can decipher from the 12Z Euro, it looks like the warm front
      takes it’s sweet time to come through. IN other words, we don’t get into
      the juice for action. Any action we get in Eastern sections would have to
      come from the warm front.

      If you recall, I believe that was the cause of the Revere tornado a few
      years back.

      So, we “could” have SE surface winds, 925 mb winds at SSW and 850 mb
      winds at WSW. That is some serious shear and helicity.

  25. More twitter chatter between meteorologists Ryan Hanrahan and John Homenuk.
    Ryan
    Sig tor threat along warm front tomorrow?
    John
    4km NAM has a small MCS type feature right on the wf in CT w/ explosive instability (SB 4000j/kg)
    Ryan
    Check out the hodographs for HFD
    John
    I may legitimately make a trip up that way tomorrow if current forecasts hold.
    Ryan
    NAM seems overdone with that LLJ… but even 50% of that is impressive lol
    John Yup. Lets see how 18z looks. Maybe set up in Western CT and move from there as the day goes on.

  27. This tweet from Eric Fisher
    Expecting a very active Tuesday afternoon. Sct’d torrential downpours, lightning, brief spin-up tornado possible.

    On the graphic with the tweet
    Localized Flooding 3 which is high on impact scale
    Damaging Wind 3
    Hail and Tornado 2 which is medium on impact scale.

  28. As they say, it’s totally up in the air as of now.

    I won’t totally dismiss action up this way, but seriously, I’d be surprised.
    Not being a professional, it is a bit difficult digesting the models because it
    is not clear cut. There are 2 parts of this:

    1. The warm front and any possible action there
    2. The warm sector with the front/trough slicing through it.

    Both are capable of severe weather and not know exactly were each sets up
    is the problem.

    Some areas could be subject to severe weather from both.

    Right now, I’d lean towards the Boston area ONLY getting in on #1, IF even that.

    We shall see.

    btw, the experimental HRRR is showing VERY HIGH helicity values even for Boston
    tomorrow afternoon, presumably from the warm front. And also showing equally
    HIGH helicity values for SW CT for the warm sector.

    So the answer is blowing in the wind.

  30. Dave you were mentioning about the two parts to this. Ryan Hanrahan was mentioning that possibility to in a twitter chat with another meteorologist
    I feel like there’s 2 windows. One around daybreak and another in the afternoon.

  31. Here is another a response from from Jaret Gold who is a mesoscale convection and mid latitude cyclone expert
    I really don’t want to scare you but there will a sig tor threat along the warm front. I dont know where that will be

    1. Yes, but see the problem?

      “I don’t know where that will be”

      It could easily be 100 miles one way or the other to where the models
      “think” it will be right now.

  32. Those could be some high stakes tomorrow and without a doubt a nowcasting situation.
    I like the honesty right there and making people aware of the possibility.
    For anyone reading this blog what were posting were not saying this is going to happen but rather lay out a possibility of what could happen.

    1. Indeed. No one here is saying tornadoes WILL happen.

      What we are saying is that the set up could favor the possibility and that
      we should be prepared and at least monitor the situation. If nothing
      happens, great.

      I don’t think anyone is crying wolf. This is real and the “potential” is there.
      Still does NOT mean it will happen. Just be aware at this point.

    1. Best I can determine a definition of “Brief Spin-up tornado”

      Best Answer: A brief tornado spinup means that conditions may be favorable for a small and weak tornado to form briefly and then dissipate. In my years of storm chasing, I have seen brief tornado spinups. They usually are EF0 strength and only last a minute or so.
      Source(s):
      Storm spotter/chaser

      I am sorry, but I think the threat tomorrow is for possibly more
      than a breif spin-up tornado. Remember the revere Ef-2 tornado
      was born from warm front convection.

      1. Others call a Brief spin-up tornado want the develops
        from the ground up, instead of from the clouds down.

        So, honestly, I do not like this term. Either it’s a tornado
        or it’s not.

  34. I would have to say this is the most interesting setup we have had for storms this warm weather season. Will see if it pans out. A bust would be very welcomed here with nothing but garden variety storms.

  35. Tomorrow is a higher end potential day as our region goes. I think it’s being handled very responsibly by all parties. I agree with JJ in that it’s important to be up front that there is a real threat of a couple of tornadoes across the areas which the SPC has highlighted. No reason to panic, but tomorrow is a day to be weather aware.

  36. The term “spin-up” is useless.
    There are 2 types of circulations that the NWS considered tornadoes…
    1) The true tornadic circulation, born of a mesocyclone, with or without the presence of a wall cloud.
    2) The land spout, often located along an air boundary, most of the time connected with the parent cloud but not necessarily associated with a mesocyclone. The land spout can grow upward or progress downward.

  37. Quick peak at 18z NAM and cod site and over done but very impressive severe parameters when it comes to helicity supercell composite significant tornado and EHI values for SNE between 21z (5pm) and 6z (2am)

  38. Another perspective for tomorrow from meteorologist John Bagioni from faxalert weather here in CT
    1/2 Svr wx risk on the rise again Tuesday; inc dew pts; mod/strg shear; lowering LCL, and multiple forcing features suggest interesting time

    2/2 while greatest svr risk may be across portions of NY, much of SNE could be in the svr wx ballgame; especially western CT/MA…

    Usually caveats abt amt of instability & lapse rates, but given modeled shear values, tornado risk is certainly non zero & needs monitoring!

  39. Have watched Eric and Harvey so far tonight. Harvey did not mention a tornado risk in the forecast I watched, only damaging winds. Eric, however, put the tornado risk as “moderate”, a 2 on what I think is a scale from 1-3.

  42. I just don’t see clear cut signs. Doesn’t mean there is not a threat.

    If there is a threat, it is one of those sneaky kind.

    Will be watching for sure, but not impressed at the moment.

  44. We saw the crazy 6z GFS storm this morning at the end of the run. As unlikely as that is, we should see more attention on the Atlantic over the next several weeks, as we’d expect this time of year. A disturbance off Africa is now up to a 50% chance of developing per the NHC, and I’d take the over on that percentage. Would be named “Fiona” if it became a storm. More waves are lined up behind that one, and we’ll likely be dealing with development chances at least right through early October. It’s still not perfectly aligned for the Atlantic- the MJO has been and still is uncooperative. But climatology can overwhelm that this time of year, and it should get more favorable with time anyways. No telling where any storms go, of course.

  45. TK – Is this new term “spin-up” by NWS mainly so the general public doesn’t panic by the word TORNADO?

    1. Well, the hazardous weather outlook also mentions the possibility of a “tornadic spin-up”, as opposed to the non-tornadic variety 😉

  47. Hmmm
    This whole situation is getting weird.

    GFS is in and shows main threat in Eastern New York state.

    Spoke to our daughter a bit ago and she was telling us what Kevin Lemanowicz
    was saying about tomorrow. It scared he. He was saying something like the
    wind was from 3 directions and they were concerned about tornadoes.

    We shall see.

    on another note, the gfs hurricane is long gone. 😀

    1. Coastal what a beautiful picture. Please give your girls a hug from us. Yiu sure do have beautiful children.

      And Odd. I was wondering today when the race was. Guess one of many special Angels on Ryan’s shoulder was trying to tell me

  51. I smell a rat. Something just is NOT adding up for this severe threat today.

    The models are just not depicting much of any convection and thus precipitation.
    For all of the hype, one would think the models would show some precip. Nope, not
    much anyway.

    For example the 4KM NAM shows a trace for Boston and not a whole lot even out
    in the CT River Valley where the worst is touted. Hrrr not showing much either, more
    so than the NAM, but just doesn’t look right.

    4KM NAM

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM4KM/06/NE/NAM4KMNE_prec_precacc_060.png

    Regular NAM

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016081606/084/qpf_acc.us_ne.png

    GFS

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016081606/084/qpf_acc.us_ne.png

    The Euro has diddly squat

    The only one that shows anything at all is the Canadian

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016081600/090/qpf_acc.us_ne.png

    Something just is NOT adding up here. Either not much is going to happen
    OR the models are out of their minds.

    NWS keeps talking about PWats of 2 1/2 inches and downpours all over the area. How is it going to materialize?

    1. Currently, I don’t see any signs of the warm from becoming active.
      Some showers out ahead of the warm front are DRYING up. So there ya go.
      We shall see what happens later.

  53. If I could say one more thing.
    Eric Fisher had an excellent presentation last evening.
    Very concise and informative presenting the possibilities and yet
    not alarming to the public. Nicely done.

    If I have one negative, it was that he mentioned the damn word spin up.
    PLEASE let’s call it what it is. It is either use the word tornado or don’t mention it.
    None of this Spin-up bullshit. Other than that PERFECT!! Well done!

    1. I was thinking of emailing him and asking him why he uses it. He seems to always have a good reason for what he says.

      1. You should do it. I HATE that term.
        Someone mentioned and TK agreed that perhaps they use
        as to not alarm the public. Spin-up sounds much less dangerous
        than tornado. I dunno. I think it is STOOOOOOOPID!
        and it irritates the crap out of me.

        1. Oh, btw, if that is the NEW term for a weak tornado, then damn it, just say chance of a weak short lived tornado or 2.

          Sorry, I vent.

          1. They probably avoid the term “weak tornado” because even a weak one can still destroy a house that is poorly constructed. It’s a tip-toe through the razors game with terminology these days, and doesn’t really have to be.

              1. But we as the viewing and listening public have caused the problem IMO. Not those here but those who get on the weather blogs and no matter what the mets do find fault with them. The sad part is in our new social media world, everyone seems to be an expert at the job of others.

                I’ll see if I can find out why he is using the term. Eric is generally responsive to questions asked.

  55. SPC will be updating their outlook shortly.
    Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    Any thunderstorm threat today will hold off until midday/afternoon. Coverage looks isolated.
    A comment to the tweet
    Nice…seems like volatile conditions, especially with the spin potential of that LL jet!

    Ryan’s response
    For sure. Plenty of shear later today – the question is whether stuff is able to fire.

  56. Where that warm front sets up and who gets warm sectored should be primed. Sun is out where I am. 6z NAM gets aggressive 3z to 6z with biggest severe parameters helicity EHI significant tornado supercell composite over CT.

    1. Text

      WITH STORMS FURTHER
      INCREASING/SPREADING EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. IN THE
      PRESENCE OF MODERATE BUOYANCY…RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
      /GENERALLY 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE/ ACROSS NY AND NORTHERN PA INTO
      WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND WELL-ORGANIZED
      LINE SEGMENTS. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
      ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NY/HUDSON VALLEY AND POSSIBLY ADJACENT NEW
      ENGLAND/PA/NJ…ASIDE FROM A MORE REGIONALLY PREVALENT RISK OF
      DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL /PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
      SUPERCELLS/.

      btw, often times within the 5% a tornado watch is issued. I wonder IF
      we see a tornado watch today, at least in and near the 5% area.

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