Wednesday Forecast

108 Comments

9:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 17-21)…
Post cold front today, still fairly warm, but humidity drops off as a gusty wind blows and see see a sun/cloud mix, trending sunnier. Another cold front approaches Thursday and we see a brief spike in humidity and heat and a risk of a few afternoon showers/thunderstorms. High pressure builds in with fabulous late summer weather Friday-Sunday with seasonable warmth and some coastal sea breezes this weekend.
TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 77-82 Cape Cod, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty, diminishing late in the day.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-63 interior valleys, 63-68 elsewhere. Wind light NW to W.
THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms. More humid. Highs 79-84 South Coast, 85-90 elsewhere. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 60-68, warmest urban areas. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-88, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68, warmest urban areas. Highs 78-88, coolest coast.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 60-68, warmest urban areas. Highs 78-88, coolest coast.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 22-26)…
Slow-moving front brings a chance of showers/thunderstorms August 22-23 with higher humidity. High pressure dominates with fair and seasonably warm weather August 24-26.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 27-31)…
Slightly cooler weather and a risk of a few showers around the August 27-28 weekend, then fair and warm to hot to end the month.

108 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Thank you, TK. As much as I like storms, I am happy we did not have any in the night since there was the probability of tornadoes embedded.

    I was pleasantly surprised when I just stepped outside. 75.5 with a 64 DP and a lovely SW wind.

    1. Yes. If the next system is a little fast, it would probably mean showers Sunday night. I like the dry forecast for the day.

  3. Thanks TK. Your post earlier yesterday regarding the top 11 driest June-August periods surprised me. Not b/c we’re in the midst of the driest, but i was surprised Boston has actually received 3.02″ of rain during that period. Seems like it’s been even drier.

  5. My backyard maple is dropping leaves like crazy.

    That immediately brings me to thinking about how this dry stretch will affect the foliage in our local area. Thoughts?

    1. Ace did the maple get attacked by either the winter or gypsy moths?

      I did do some searching to see what effect the drought will have but didn’t come up with much. Some thought is climate change will delay foliage. Duh? We have seen that for years now. Other articles mentioned the moths.

      Either way our trees are not having a good time of it.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Sad day yesterday. All of that moisture and all I got out of it was a few spits of rain on
    2 separate occasions. Pathetic.

    Yes, TK warned it would be more isolated than not.

    Last nights storms were the most disappointing of all.
    The storms from NJ went POOF in the night and the rest of them lined
    up from VT to PA, likewise went POOF only faster.

    We had a debate whether or not to close the windows after watching Eric.
    Eric DID say they would be weakening. I took one last look at
    Radar Scope and told my wife, NO WAY they will hold together, LEAVE the
    windows OPEN.

    Typical of this season. What the atmosphere does NOT want to rain, it doesn’t.
    At least NOT in Boston!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    It was scary seeing those HRRR severe parameters for early in the morning.
    NEVER have I seen numbers that high for this part of the country, let alone
    for 2 or 3AM. Thankfully there was not enough of a trigger to be firing storms
    to tap into that potential. Need MORE than the parameters to realize the severe
    weather.

    TK: Serious thought. Why can’t those models tie in the triggering mechanisms
    and adjust the parameters accordingly. Doesn’t matter if the CAPE is through the roof with a -12 LI, if there is not trigger, then those numbers are meaningless.

    Ok, they can keep those panels, but why not add a realistic panel that shows the
    severe threat based on possible triggering mechanisms and a more realistic view of the threat.

    In other words show the significant tornado parameter based on the realistic possibility of it being achieved. For example for 3 AM this morning, those values were
    extremely high at 4 and 5. What realistically should have been there was 0.

    I know, I know, I am asking for too much.

    Andrew Revering, owner and operator of the Eurowx.com site, has attempted to
    do so with his APRWX Tornado Index. He first attempts to determine IF
    there WILL be severe weather or the conditions that could develop tornadoes.

    Here is a link so you can see what I mean.

    http://www.aprweather.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=259

    1. I wish I could answer the model question sufficiently, other than to say obviously they are seriously fallible in certain, if not many, situations.

      1. Fair enough and I understand that. Thankfully, we have you
        to provide proper guidance.

        I thought that the cold front running into that soup would
        provide sufficient lift. Doesn’t always work out that way, does it?

        1. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen a significant cold front slice through a hot/humid air mass and producing nothing but a wind shift.

          1. Guess so. Story of this year for sure.

            Our severe season is wrapping up. Not sure
            there will be another opportunity this year.

              1. In normal years, it would be.

                You have something up your sleeve for the rest of this season?

                And I did say wrapping up, not over. 😀

                I bet I don’t hear Thunder again this year, unless we get a tropical system.

    2. The models are tools, it’s up to the user to put them to proper use and interpret them. I’ve tried to make this point several times previously. As my boss has said numerous times: “If the models were really that good, there would be no need for meteorologists.”

      1. You have indeed made that point and it is an excellent one even for those of us who have little clue as to what the models say. For one, I like seeing where they excel and where they fail. Each is a teaching/learning moment. And…..

        As a wise person once said to me: “If there were no comments on a blog and data from which to learn and analyze and question, we would have no blog.”

        😉

      2. Certainly agree. The problem is that it can be difficult
        for amateurs to be able to sort out when and when not to believe the output and how to analysis and use it properly.

        Try as we may or as I may for sure. You have repeatedly asked me why I look at the Hrrrr for example.

        Well, if for nothing else, I am trying to obtain enough skill to make the determinations you discuss.

        TK has provided me with a wealth of education on this subect and I feel I, for one, have come a long way. A way to go to be sure.

        Another thing that factors into this is a healthy dose of
        wishful thinking. It is rather easy to latch onto a model
        output simply because one LIKES what it is depicting.
        Dangerous to be sure. My wife accuses me of this all the time.
        As much as I have my own wishful thinking, I have been around this game long enough to at least make attempt at balancing
        the various output.

        In short, we’re trying.

        Regarding yesterday, as robust as the severe parameters the HRRR was depicting, at the very same time the Simulated reflectivity was showing VIRTUALLY no activity in the very same areas where the parameters were through the roof.
        In short, RED FLAG, yet I was still “hopeful”. So, you see the dilemma.

        We LOVE this blog and would be LOST without it!

        THANK YOU again TK!!

  9. Ace, your question is a good one. I think foliage will be fine in places that have the most brilliant foliage anyway (eg, Vermont). These places have had some beneficial rainfall. But, foliage will be muted in the Boston area, in part because as you mentioned leaves are already falling to the ground in droves. Even the leaves that remain on trees have brown edges, suggesting they’re starved for water. It’s as bad as I’ve seen it in about 30 years. Trees that were planted in spring will have a hard time surviving. I’ve already seen evidence of this as many of the trees planted by Cambridge and Boston along the banks of the Charles are in very bad shape. Obviously, newly sodded areas – such as parts of the Boston Common, which was sodded last year – that did not do sufficient irrigation – will not recover.That’s a lot of taxpayer money.

    I say these things not to be alarmist. I do believe that the drought we’ve been experiencing is part of a natural cycle. Nevertheless, the effects should not be downplayed.

      1. It was the talk in the supermarket checkout line the other day….along with the Enquirer’s report on Clinton’s health. I’ve learned that things move far more slowly out in these parts so I something has to amuse me while I wait in line 😉

  11. There are people I know that the Almanac is always right. The accuracy they claim 75-80% right is not even close. Its under 10% in my opinion. They get 1-3 things they predict a month right and that is luck. Now we did have thunderstorms in the July 1st -3rd time period but they were not violent thunderstorms which was predicted. Sept 4th -7th there predicting dangerous thunderstorms. Now they did predict the blizzard in January 2005 and blizzard of 96 correct but again its luck. You make enough predictions eventually your going to get something right.

  13. Keep them over the fish the rest of hurricane season. I hope there are not landfalls of hurricanes or tropical storms especially in Louisiana where flooding in parts of that state has been really bad.

    1. We could use a tropical system up here. Don’t need a hurricane, but
      a low end tropical storm or Remnants would be wonderful.

        1. Lucky you. Crusie? Or airplane?

          Where are you staying? My wife and I LOVE bermuda and have visited that gorgeous island 5 times.

  15. I still can’t get believe the overnight warm sector. Here are some times, temps and dp’s from last night …..

    Providence, RI : 2am : temp : 78F, dp : 75F

    Worcester : 3am : temp : 78F, dp : 72F

    Hartford : 2am : temp : 83F, dp : 77F

    Logan : 3am : temp : 80F, dp : 76F.

    What would the afternoon temps have been like had that airmass either been 12hrs earlier or later during afternoon heating …….

    1. oooo ooo ooo ….I know. Toasty 😉

      Sorry, my snark seems to be in play today!!

      Back to being serious for a second. Them there are some nasty temp/dp combinations. I had the bedroom window open just a couple of inches last night so I could hear storms should they approach and GettingBetter didn’t call me. The room felt like a sauna when I woke up around 3:30.

      1. I went to bed knowing FULL WELL that there wouldn’t even be a hint of a storm around these parts. NO Question about it whatsoever.

        1. We were actually a number of miles from having 2 things come together enough for nocturnal storms. It was a very, very close call.

          1. Oh I know you had a concern. I suppose it’s
            just as well as we don’t need nocturnal severe
            weather. 😀

            Great job yesterday. You nailed the hell out of it!

    2. Put my wife away last night. She woke me up at about 2:30 AM just to tell me
      that the dew point was a bleepin 76!@!@@!

      She was bullshit!

      1. So much so, our trip to Rockport, Me this weekend to attend a friends son’s wedding looks to be about 90% out of the question.
        IF the humidity spikes tomorrow, kiss it good-bye*!@*(#*(!@&*(#&!*(@&#*(!&@*(#&!*(@&#*!@&#*

        1. Consider looking at Grey NWS.

          I think they are expecting lows in the low-mid 60s the next many nights in Rockland, ME and anytime they get a S or SE wind, it’s a direct seabreeze.

          I know it won’t be crisp cool and dry, but I don’t think it’s going to be brutal either.

          Maybe mild to warm with a moderate type of humidity.

          1. I know the weather will be fine.
            The problem is getting ready to get there
            and actually getting there.

            Unfortunately, we do not have central AC.
            we have ACs in 3 rooms. Leaving one of those
            rooms is death for my wife, where for me, I notice the heat and humidity, but has no affect on me. She has difficulty regulating her body temperature.

            Today hopefully helps some, but a spike in
            humidity tomorrow will kill the deal.
            She hasn’t recovered at all.

            1. Oh …….. That stinks. There’s definitely a lag to recovering from being worn down from heat/humidity.

              I certainly hope she feels better and perhaps even soon enough to make your trip a go.

              1. Thanks Tom, Much appreciated.
                She is really bummed as she
                was looking forward to this.
                New clothes, shoes, jewelry etc.

                Also, 2 nights stay at the
                Samoset resort has set us back a pretty penny and it is non-cancellable due to a special advanced sale rate. Figures.
                Frankly, that’s the least of my worries.

                1. Well, tonight should be an opportunity to see those rooms without A/C cool off. I think when the sun goes down this evening, the temp should fall off somewhat quickly and hopefully your area can get down towards 60F by morning.

      2. JPD – out of curiosity, how do you “put your wife away” I think Mac tried to do that for years but was never quite successful….as you can probably tell!!

        And IMHO Central air is nothing to write home about. I thought our house was cooled far more efficiently with the three window units we had in Framingham. Our electric bill here went up 100% even. SIL installed a mini-split yesterday for both heating and cooling.

        1. Put away was a nice term to say that the weather
          rendered her basically incapacitated, unable to do anything, a steaming puddle of non-existence.

  16. Drought looks to continue as well as above normal temperatures through November…. While the Plain states look to have below normal temperatures.

      1. been looking at long range weather models and looking at some of the other tools used for seasonal outlooks, trying to understand them better, All seem to keep a dry and warm pattern till at least November.

      1. I get the idea were headed towards a gulf of Alaska trof, western USA ridge, central us/western Great Lakes trof- east coast ridge pattern.

        Where that exactly sets up is probably going to determine where any developed tropical systems go.

        My memory is terrible but I think the above described pattern would be a bit different than the patterns of the last few summers heading into the heart of hurricane season.

        1. Well that would sound like the ideal set up
          for New England Tropical events.

          We shall see.

          SAK keeps saying that he expects the drought to be
          broken by a Tropical system of some sort.

  18. Tom,

    Seriously doubt, JP gets to 60 tonight. It would be delightful IF it did.
    If so, might give us a “chance” to make trip. We shall see.

      1. Here’s hoping ! I’d like to be able to open our house windows myself and have fresh air at night.

        Also, I was at school today setting up my class room and the heat of the past week along with these warm nights have the hallways on the 2nd floor incredibly warm and stuffy. It’s going to take a few cool nights to help out.

        1. Are the school windows open? or can they be left open?
          Or does someone have to be there?

          I NEVER functioned in school when it was hot.
          Actually, I NEVER functioned in school, period.

          I DETESTED school!!! It was an unnecessary evil
          that I was FORCED to do. I have never gotten over it!!

        2. Ditto, Tom…..for windows and not for school. I hope there is some relief for those of you (teachers and students) who have to head back to school in a couple of weeks.

          1. Through community response, I believe, many donated window A/C units have allowed for one unit per room in the middle school. (The new high school has central A/C).

            I think this has been so for the last 5 years or so.

            It makes the rooms better til about noon, then prevents them from being extreme in the afternoon. But, of course, we try to keep that relief in our classrooms and keep the doors shut and there’s no chance to do anything for the hallways.

            Usually, most of September, I get home with my clothes pasted to me. September is far worst than June because our June seabreeze is so chilly still.

            Oh well. Then comes October and I’ll complain I’m frozen, lol !!!!!!

  19. 3 reasons I think it could end up cooler tonight than projected …..

    1) for a change, temps are underachieving today. I think Logan was supposed to be 88F, but is hovering around 84F. Worcester and other areas west are in the upper 70s.

    2) the dp’s are running a bit lower than projected. Seeing upper 50s.

    3) this busy NW wind tells me the high pressure area must still be to our west which probably gives it a good chance to crest overhead tonight and slacken off the winds. It’s been so humid lately, but all of a sudden, it’s August 17th and the nights are somewhat longer when radiational cooling is involved.

    1. All excellent points, however, for urban areas, it does not account
      for the “heat island”. I hope in JP, we can detach ourselves from the heat island.
      Sometimes we do and sometimes we don’t. 😀

    2. I had Boston in the 83-88 range and they peaked at 84.
      Dew points will come up slowly overnight to 60-65.
      The center of the high will be crossing the Virginias tonight, not this area. We’ll have a batch of cloudiness cross the region, providing a blanket, while at the same time the winds will go west then southwest.
      Based on that, I like the 60-68 range posted above. 🙂

  20. Tom, your work as a school teacher is much appreciated. Unfortunately it is undervalued in today’s society. And this applies to elementary, secondary, and higher education.

    Like JP Dave, I did not like school. But, that was mostly because I was (am) shy and a non-conformist.

    1. For me, it was because school was something I didn’t want to be doing.
      It interfered with my play time. Seriously, that is about the size of it.
      It was a miracle that I was able to get through school and even a larger miracle
      to graduate college.

      1. My non-conformity got the best of me at school. For example, as a kid growing up in the early 70s geography and history had morphed into social studies. I was interested in knowing the capitals of Europe, the Renaissance, Louis the 14th, Napoleon, etc … Classical geography and history. Instead, our teachers taught us about tribes in the Kalahari desert and native Americans of the Arctic. I didn’t understand the point in focusing narrowly on these groups of people. So, I drifted off into day-dreaming and wound up failing tests (perhaps intentionally). Nevertheless, subconsciously their teaching rubbed off on me because I’m now obsessed with Kimmirut.

        1. Interesting. There wasn’t much for me in school.
          I hated chemistry, but excelled in Physics.
          I was OK in Math, but for the life of me could not
          do Factoring. It was foreign to me. I finally got it and can certainly do it with ease now.

          Funny thing, because I wanted to get into meteorology, I majored in Math and Minored in Physics. Go figure.
          I loved out Calculus professor. She would say something and then say the proof was intuitively obvious! NOT!

        2. I think I was a combination of you both but perhaps favoring Dave. School interfered with my social life. Or perhaps I thought of it as my social life. But I am an introvert…ya I know what you are thinking but one can be brave when there is a keyboard between you and a person or people. And I too wanted to focus on my interests which were usually not the same as those of my friends.

  21. I may have to consolidate our shower threat to just Monday of next week. Looks a little more progressive to me as I analyze data today. It’s going to be a very, very dry last 2 weeks of August.

    I see signs of occasional to persistent Bermuda High going into September, but not confident enough to really “go for it” yet. The Bermuda High in late summer is NOT unusual at all. It’s more likely to be established during the second half of summer versus the first half.

    1. So, continued drought, heat, and humidity likely. You’ve been remarkably accurate as always, so I will definitely keep your judgment in mind.

      1. We’ll have to get lucky to bring a tropical up here, in terms of beneficial rain. We obviously don’t “need” the wind damage.

        The current tropical system will pass east of Bermuda, possibly by a great distance.

        One will develop behind that (the system that has been appearing on medium range guidance) but based on the rate that I think that system, assuming development, would traverse the Atlantic, and the pattern I think will be in place at the time, I’d give it greater odds of recurving off the east coast, near or west of Bermuda, during the last few days of August.

        1. I’m not a Met and based on what I have seen, I was thinking similarly. However, I did get a chuckle out
          the 12Z CMC which brings one very near the SE coast. 😀

  24. First I did not like school because I was the kid shoved into lockers.
    second. I hated when people said I could not do something because of my processing disorder.
    three. I disliked how teachers sometimes treated students
    four. I hated how if someone was wailing on you, you still got in trouble even if you did not throw a punch . i was in a situation in which I was being shoved around being made fun of, i had a bloody nose and a bruised thumb and yet I still got a detention. as well as him.
    Five: favoritism. there were teachers obviously said he is a B student so his paper is going to be a B.
    6 there are many teachers that believe that their class should come first and be all important and think we should only care about their class.
    there were a series of reasons why I did not like school in elementry school and middle school particularly. Not as much in high school. I liked high school. I also like college. I also think tests are probably one of the worse ways to find out what people remember

    1. Matt this makes me more sad than you will ever know…or perhaps you do know. My brother could have written your words. My mom …who was more vocal than I am and an amazing advocate for kids….fought from the time he was in third grade to stop what you have described. That was in the 1950s. It breaks my heart to know so little has changed.

      You can be so proud of yourself. I know I am proud to call you friend.

    2. Matt, I am so sorry to hear that you had to experience the horrors of bullying! I too, was a victim of bullying due to a speech impediment and 6 years of being pulled out of class for speech therapy making my grade school years a very difficult time, especially since it took place during the late 60’s when bullying was considered a normal part of life.
      I hope you have been able to come to terms with the fact that none, and I mean NONE of that horrible behavior towards you was your fault!!!
      I feel very fortunate to have come to know you on this blog and think you are a very special person!!!

      1. With a very deep sigh my heart aches for this young boy who was Shotime. But at the same time my heart is warm because I have the amazing priviledge of knowing the very special man you have become.

        1. Thank you Vicki!
          Your sincere and heartfelt comment means a lot to me. Barbara Jean 😉 sorry for the confusion with my username shotime.

  25. look at the cfs hour 744 to 768… some areas in the plains/eastern rockies 45 degrees below normal lol with ice and and snow….. CFS go home, I think your drunk.

  26. A climate post this evening, since I haven’t made one of these in awhile… NOAA (and NASA) have both rated July 2016 as the warmest July on record, .06C ahead of July 2015 in NOAA’s data. That also makes July 2016 the absolute hottest month on record for Earth, given the seasonal cycle. It is the 15th consecutive warmest month on record in NOAA’s data, the longest such streak on record. With El Nino long gone and in fact a cooler ENSO state settling in, this can now be attributed primarily to human activities and greenhouse gas build-up. And it won’t get better, at least not in a hurry and especially if we don’t alter course. The dice are loaded.

    We also recently saw a textbook example of an event made more likely by and enhanced by global warming with the Louisiana floods. Not to be confused with “caused by”. But we’re stacking the odds.

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201607

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/08/15/what-we-can-say-about-the-louisiana-floods-and-climate-change/?utm_term=.85279a11c2f3

  27. So sorry to hear about the bullying crap from some of you.

    Awful, just awful. I feel for both of you.

    I was fortunate that I never had that problem. I was one of the biggest kids in the school, so no one wanted to mess with me.

    I had other issues with school and learning, but got through it all. I did not/do not
    learn as most do, but learn I did and learn I still do. Although I was fully capable, I always missed out on the National Honor Society by a point or 2.

  31. Re: bullying – It seems to me incomprehensible that for many of our younger folks attributes such as originality, independence, authenticity, above normal and/or unusual intelligence, and going against the herd mentality are qualities to be attacked and broken down. For those are the exact qualities that make people such as Matt and Shotime the definition of the words exceptional and extraordinary. We would be nowhere, have gone no place as a country or as a culture, without those gifts of people who are born a little outside the box with a little more to give society than the average bear. Why must we punish them for their gifts? But to Matt and Shotime and every former victim of bullying – whatever doesn’t kill you makes you stronger so now you are truly a force to be reckoned and one who has likely been made that much wiser and more compassionate having had to go through that trial at such a young age and survived. But of course as a parent my heard bleeds for you that you had to endure it. Thank you for your strength in getting through it with your spirit and compassion intact – the world is so much better because of people like you.

    1. The only folks that would disagree with this would be exposing themselves as the root of the problem.

      Thank you and I completely agree. 🙂

    2. Several very deep sighs here, GettingBetter. Truly your commentaries do make this blog better. Very well stated. Thank you.

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