Thursday Forecast

74 Comments

9:06AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 18-22)…
Let’s get something out of the way first. There is NO lunar eclipse tonight. That’s fake news. Now back to the weather. A disturbance passing south of New England this morning brings a few showers to southeastern MA, and a cold front approaching the region late in the day trigger an isolated shower or thunderstorm. High pressure moves in and dominates the weather Friday through most of the weekend. Another front moves in from the west and brings the risk of showers and thunderstorms by Sunday night and more likely Monday.
TODAY: Cloudiness and a few showers southeastern MA mid morning with increasing sun elsewhere and then there. Becoming partly cloudy this afternoon with a slight risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms. More humid. Highs 79-84 South Coast, 85-90 elsewhere. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH, SE at times near the shore.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 60-68, warmest urban areas. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-88, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68, warmest urban areas. Highs 78-88, coolest coast.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 60-68, warmest urban areas. Highs 78-88, coolest coast.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 62-70. Highs 77-86.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 23-27)…
High pressure builds in August 23 then hangs around through August 26 with fair weather and temperatures from near normal early in the period to above normal later in the period. A front may approach about August 27 but probably run out of steam and have little impact.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 1)…
High pressure will be the dominant feature but centered offshore it will allow more humidity and the risk of a few showers/thunderstorms as weak systems try to approach from the west. A tropical system may be somewhere off the East Coast during this period but far too soon to know its strength or position.

74 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK for the update.

    Had a few sprinkles at home around 8AM this morning. Didn’t even wet the pavement.
    Weird as I wad watering the lawn while it was raining, sort of. I knew the rain wouldn’t
    amount to anything and it sure didn’t.

    Made it all the way to 63 at my house overnight. Sorry Tom, did not make 60 or below.
    😀

    Re: Tropical
    We shall see. Not feeling it yet, but whenever one is out there, best to keep an eagle eye on it, just in case. The fact that even one model has it striking the US coast, lays out the “possibility”. I would worry IF they all had it, which they most certainly do NOT.

    Waiting on the 12Z runs for updates.

    Current NHC trajectory map. It has it heading in the general direction of Bermuda for now.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0616W5_NL+gif/083656W5_NL_sm.gif

    1. Tropical cyclones that are already moving mostly northwest when they are north of 15N and east of 50W almost never threaten the East Coast of the US. Extremely rare. This one will fall into the category that vast majority do.

      1. The general rule that I’ve always gone by (at least in terms of a general threat to New England) is that a storm passing 60W needs to be between 15N and 20N, and on a heading between 290 and 310). Anything outside those parameters usually (but not always) is a miss for New England.

  3. Thanks TK. New drought monitor is out. D3 “extreme” drought has expanded to cover 17% of Massachusetts, including Boston and surrounding areas. So much for that rain. And now we’re probably back into an even drier pattern.

    1. That is pretty serious stuff. When was the last time we were officially in
      an Extreme Drought? I can’t remember.

      1. 2002 briefly.
        Droughts are more common than many realize. Extreme ones are a little more rare in these parts.

  5. For the trillionth time, CPC had a string of “above normal” going for our regional precipitation forecast for 6-10 / 8-14. They have backed off to “normal” again. A little more of back off and they’ll be in the ball park. 😛

          1. Before anyone does anything there are 2 things that should be done…

            1) Become a scientist, properly.
            2) If you want to study Earth’s climate, start by studying solar cycles, THEN move into other things.

  8. Toying with the idea of a remote risk of an isolated shower near the South Coast tomorrow midday or afternoon. It will depend on moisture availability and the strength of a sea breeze front.

    1. Excellent write-up. Thank you JJ.
      I am really beginning to like this guy as a Met.
      Beginning to take him seriously and include him as one of the good guys.

      And he is typically no-hype as well, which is great.

      Thanks again JJ.

  11. He is good here in CT as well as Gil Simmons Joe Furey Bruce Deprest and Brad Field.
    I believe I saw somewhere Ryan Hanrahan will be speaking at the SNE weather conference in the fall.

      1. That forum is a mess. Not recommended if you want to learn or even comment. Very clique driven and several bullies. Even a few of the Nets who post can be bullies. I have no need for that site, honestly.

  12. Logan deficit = -7.86″

    I would think just based on climatology that we will get into at least some general “wetness” within the next few weeks. If nothing else, we should be approaching peak hurricane season. Hopefully nothing destructive, of course.

    Also keeping fingers crossed that we avoid double-digit deficits.

    1. Even climatological “general wetness” does not mean “above normal rainfall”. There is general wetness at any time during the calendar year in this part of the country. We just have months that are typically wetter and typically drier than the median.

  14. The dew point has been held in check, but that temperature…Fast approaching
    90 yet again. 88 at the airport currently. I just came in and it is HOT, not warm.

      1. Right in YOUR predicted range, (85-90 elsewhere.)

        Eric had 87 for a high in Boston.

        I’m afraid Boston WILL top 90 and come in at 91 or 92.
        We shall see.

            1. Down to 82 with wind SE at 11 mph.
              Could we pop a shower along this sea breeze front? I see some developing cumulus.

              1. Probably not. The cumulus would have been there either way. I think our best shot of isolated showers is far west and north today.

  15. It’s 89 in Foxborough right now – should be a fantastic late afternoon/evening for tailgating at Gillette before Pats/Bears. That’s where I’ll be when the lots open at 4pm.

      1. Yeah, I don’t know how long they’ve done that, several years at least, but it’s not like the invest designation means anything. I think it’s mainly to be able to run the hurricane specific models on it and “sort” the data appropriately.

    1. Bull Pen BLEW it as per usual. SOX LOSE 4-3.

      I wonder IF they could have used Pappelbon today? Good question, eh?

      1. The bullpen is their achilles heel. Too bad, because the team is exciting. Papelbon is not the same guy, but he’s probably better than a washed-up Tazawa, a junkballing Ziegler, and a sometimes iffy Kimbrel.

        My it’s warm out there. Is it me, or does the sun feel hotter this year?

        The drought’s most serious consequence in the city may occur if we don’t get meaningful rain. The water table beneath the ground is 8 inches below its `normal’ depth. I actually expected it to be worse. It’s critical that the water table be replenished soon, because otherwise the pilings will rot as a result of being eaten away by microbes. The pilings serve a very important function. Their replacement is very expensive. The estimate for my building is around $100,000.

        1. Joshua,

          I agree. When I was out, it felt brutally HOT.
          Perhaps it is just my advancing age. I don’t know.

          re: Water table

          I read an in-depth article about this one time and I do
          remember exactly what you states as being a potential
          very serious problem. Let us hope it doesn’t get too
          much worse.

          re: Bullpen
          I saw at one point the game was entrusted to Robbie Ross. Gimmie a break. I need to learn exactly what happened. Will listen to Mazz on the way home in a moment.

          I Fear that DICKHEAD Farrell is at the root of this loss.
          He couldn’t manage his way out of a wet paper bag. 😀

  18. Very low risk any isolated showers make it into MA, but not impossible, through about sunset.

    Model agreement that next system’s timing is a little sooner, so will introduce a risk of showers later Sunday, and shift Monday’s wettest weather to the morning. Also, will NOT be a widespread beneficial event. NWS wording makes it sound that way, but it will be minor.

    Long dry stretch follows that.

  19. re: Wednesdays blog
    Thank you so very much for all the kindness and understanding shared on the topic of bullying. I can’t express enough how fortunate I feel to be part of and connected to so many special folks! ♥ WHW Blog
    ~Barbara Jean (shotime)

    1. Barbara Jean I am sorry. I have no idea why I thought you were male. I do recall what Felix said about assuming but never understood why it made and ass of “u”. It should be just me.

      I can Echo your sentiment that I feel so fortunate to be part of a group where there are so many amazing folks….men, women, olders (and of course wisers), youngers and even younger youngers. What a family we have.

  20. Thanks TK !

    We got a great beach day in Eastham today. The last of the cloud deck passed by around 11:30 am and it was nothing but sunshine the rest of the day.

    The bayside has to be about 75F and Great Pond in Eastham about 80F.

  21. CPC’s extended outlooks updated today. I didn’t find any surprises there.
    Drought continues through early 2017. Warm autumn, alternately cold/mild winter, cool spring, drought breaks in May, hot/showery summer 2017. This is inferred from the maps only. I don’t see any reason to highly dispute this outlook.

      1. Book a trip to the eastern Great Lakes to see a whole lot of lake effect snow in December and January!

  24. 10 was a tad slow out of the gate, but warmed up.
    He was great on that last drive. I loved his performance. This team will be in
    good hands for the 1st 4 games. I watched him check down the receivers. He was awesome! IF the Pats choose to keep him, he would be their quarter back for a long
    time once Brady retires.

      1. And then some. He is very very good. I’ll go far as to say
        he is a special talent. I am now thinking do NOT NOT NOT
        trade this guy away. Even pay him to be the back up if need be.

        1. :). I said this last season…no kudos to me. Kudos to my son in law who has an amazing eye. He is the one who,bought up as many gronk rookie cards as he could before anyone knew who gronk was….he has done the same with others and with some in baseball.

  25. If I may switch the subject.

    WHEN OH WHEN OH WHEN will John Farrell be FIRED as the Sox Manager.
    ENOUGH IS ENOUGH ALREADY!!!!!!!!

    1. I’m not a fan of Farrell either. But. let’s not pin all the blame on him. Some of this is Dombrowski’s fault. Putting together a reasonable bullpen is actually the easiest thing to do for a GM. He failed to do that. The two trades for bullpen help have left a lot to be desired. Plus, during the off season he kept Koji and Tazawa, both of whom have seen much better days. His one off-season move was to get Kimbrel and I think Kimbrel is vastly overrated. So, regardless of manager we’re left with a very exciting lineup, a stabilizing starting rotation (with question marks, but improving), and a terrible bullpen. Not a recipe for disaster, but also not a recipe for a championship.

  26. Dave, if you click more statistics on the bottom of the drought monitor and then click show all at the top of the next screen you can sort at the top of each column then and see the highest percentages, etc. Found that last week, pretty cool.

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