Friday Forecast

141 Comments

2:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 19-23)…
High pressure builds over the region today and holds through Saturday with generally fair weather, but there may be enough moisture along a sea breeze front to pop an isolated shower near the South Coast today and then develop some low cloudiness and patchy fog tonight and again Saturday night, which will burn off each morning following, though a little more slowly in some locations on Sunday. And during Sunday, we’ll see the approach of a front from the west which will cause some increase in cloudiness again by the end of the day. However, it now appears that this front will be more progressive than I had been thinking, and it will likely end up producing a largely insignificant rain event in the form of scattered to general showers for a few hours during the early hours of Monday. After that, high pressure builds back in with more day weather, though the transition on Monday may feature some gusty wind as it dries out.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Remote risk of an isolated shower in the afternoon near the South Coast. Highs 80-88, coolest along the shoreline areas. Wind light variable with coastal sea breezes developing.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 60-68, warmest urban areas. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Patchy fog early. Highs 78-88, coolest coastal areas. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog late. Lows 60-68, warmest urban areas. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog early. Chance of showers late in the day. Highs 76-86, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning with showers ending west to east. Partly cloudy and windy afternoon. Lows 60-68, warmest urban areas. Highs 77-85.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68, warmest urban areas. Highs 78-86.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 24-28)…
Fair and warming weather is expected August 24-26. A weakening front late in the period may result in a few showers but no sign of widespread rain.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 29-SEPTEMBER 2)…
Watch for a tropical storm or hurricane possibly offshore of the US East Coast sometime in the August 29-31 period. During that time the weather here should be largely rain-free with above normal temperatures. A weak front may bring a few showers somewhere in the first couple days of September with continued above normal temperatures.

141 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  3. Posting this again for Dave in response to his question on historical drought info in case he didn’t see it last night.

    Dave, if you click more statistics on the bottom of the drought monitor and then click show all at the top of the next screen you can sort at the top of each column then and see the highest percentages, etc. Found that last week, pretty cool.

  5. As an agricultural meteorologist, I have 2 comments today on the drought.

    1) Though in some smaller-scale locations, such as suburban Boston, this is up there with the worst of our droughts, regionally, this is not nearly our worst drought. So when you hear people say “worst ever”, if they are actually informed enough to know that, then they should make note of it being localized. Otherwise they are speaking without the benefit of enough knowledge on the subject or are basically full of crap.

    2) The US Drought Monitor, though useful, tends to overdo the drought categories somewhat. I’d stop just shy of categorizing anywhere “extreme” in eastern MA, but we still may get to that point before the end of the summer.

  7. Thank you TK and good morning.

    You mentioned a possible tropical system late in the forecast period.

    The 1st thing I did this morning was look at the GFS. At forecast hour 324 or
    for 2PM on Sept 1st, it is showing this:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016081906/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_48.png

    A 956mb Goliath, just far enough off shore to prevent a disaster.
    However at 324 hours, we can’t glean too much for this, just that a tropical is possible.
    The track or even if it is there, will change a zillion times between now and then.

    Just interesting that it is showing up. Well that’s how I look at it.
    We sure could use the rain.

    TK, We still think we are headed to Rockport, ME later today for the wedding
    tomorrow.

    Any thoughts on the weather up there. Best I can tell, is perhaps upper 70s today
    and lower 70s tomorrow with fair weather. Many thanks

    1. Right now, the GFS appears to be on an island by itself on this system
      Time will tell, but it has my attention.

    2. What I find interesting with this depiction (and that is all it is at this time), is
      that the strongest winds are to the West of the center. With all of that open
      ocean out there, one would think the strongest winds would be to the East
      of the center? Could it becoming extra-tropical at 956MB? Seems this
      one would still be tropical.

      TK, SAK comments? Curious.

      Many thanks

      1. Always be careful of taking the model forecast verbatim, but the strongest winds would be determined by the direction of movement and speed of movement. Since you add wind vectors, the strongest winds will very likely be on the right side of the center with respect to the direction of motion. Example, the northwestward-moving storm would have the strongest winds in the northeast quadrant.

        1. Certainly, yet that map shows strongest winds on the West side of storm where forward motion would be detracting
          from bet wind speed. I don’t get it?

          East side, forward speed would be adding to net wind
          speed???? huh, what?

        2. So in other words, the map depiction is incorrect because
          the strongest winds WOULD be to the East of the center?

          1. Most likely. I don’t see anything there to make my believe that wind forecast is correct.

      2. The GFS Ensemble Mean out that far is SIGNIFICANTLY farther east with the low. At 324 hours on the 6z run, the Ensemble mean has the low centered near 38N/62W, where as the operational GFS for that time has the low near 41N/69W.

        However, there are still several members that have the storm much closer to the coast (or even landfall). The operational run is one of the strongest with the storm and also the fartherst north and west with the position though, and therefore, should be considered an outlier.

    3. History shows that in this type of pattern, those types of tropical systems end up just a tad further east than the forecast maps will put them at about that time range. No guarantee of anything for sure, but the bottom line is, Atlantic is more active. And when there are storms out there, we don’t let guard down. 🙂

      Rockport should top out in the 75-80 range both days but Saturday’s ocean breeze will be earlier and a bit stronger so the fall-back will be a few degrees more. Humidity will be modest with dew point sitting around 64-65.

      1. Thank you TK. I had it pretty close. The wedding is right
        on the water at 4PM tomorrow, so I am thinking about 72 by then.
        I have already warned my wife. I hope we make it. She was
        doing a little better yesterday, so we are proceeding as if we
        are going. IF we can keep this DAMN dew point from
        creeping up, I think she will be OK. About 65 is her threshold.
        After that she goes down hill quickly.

        Right now it is 63 here. IF we can keep it near that I “think” she will be OK.

        We’ll know a little later.

        Thanks again TK.

        Oh, any comments on that map showing strongest winds to the
        West of the center? tx

  8. The Hurricane models only go out 126 hours, but they have that same system
    in earlier stages.

    Here is the HWRF

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2016081906/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_99L_43.png

    And the GFDL

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2016081906/gfdl-p_mslp_wind_99L_22.png

    GFS at the same time

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016081906/gfs_mslp_wind_99L_22.png

    And the lowly CMC

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016081900/gem_mslp_wind_99L_22.png

    Euro

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016081900/ecmwf_mslpa_atl_7.png

    1. Lol ….. 954 mb on the HWRF …..

      Here’s hoping the dewpoint stays where it is in the low 60s or drops ……

    1. The saddest part about all of this will be the amount of over-analysis of what was a minor accident. Big deal. Woulda, coulda, shoulda. He’ll heal.

    2. Good grief. Sound like something I would do. I didn’t make it to the end of the game but G10 looked great.

      1. 10 looked smooth and ready to go. We are in good hands.

        Tommy, Tommy, Tommy.

        I thought that ONLY I did such STUPID things. I guess I am not alone and since we share a birthday, why should I be surprised.

        Hey as they say, Shit happens. He doesn’t Have to play until week 5. Heal Tommy and heal well. We’ll need you.

      1. I remember rain and flooding far more with Bob and wind more from Gloria. I know that probably changes with area. I’m just thinking of the Framingham area.

        1. Same experience for Bob ….. A little different with Gloria because I was in school in Wolfeboro, NH at the time. Some wind (maybe a couple tropical storm wind gusts) and a few heavy showers.

          1. If I had to pick which one fit “my” definition of a hurricane, it would be Gloria. I remember the wind pulsing in. It sounded like a freight train.

        3. It’s all about the track! As was mentioned earlier, in tropical systems, especially up this way, the strongest winds are to the right of the center. With rainfall, it all shifts to the left of the center. Since Gloria went up the CT Valley, most of Eastern New England had plenty of wind, but little rainfall. Bob went across Southeastern Mass. The Cape had a lot of wind and little rain, while the rest of us had a lot of rain and not as much wind.

      1. My mom was 4 years old at the time living in Waterbury and remembers the flood 55 quite well. I have seen pictures and heard its stories and its unbelievable. Its a good article which I posted about the 55 flood.

    2. Neat stuff. I remember flooding in the 50s, probably was this event. We were living in Millis, MA at the time and the Charles River was flooded big time.
      Sudbury as well. My Father worked in Needham and had to take a very long route around to get over the river. I think he ended up going to Natick
      to take Route 9 into through Wellesley and into Needham totally avoiding
      the River. It was truly bad, we we made it through and Dad missed no work.

      1. I am not recalling the flooding in the 50s. I do remember that the Charles River Boston was sandbagged for flooding in spring of what I believe was 1969 (could have been 68). We were flying back from FL and it was really nasty getting into Logan. Only time I recall it being sandbagged but that does not mean it was the only time.

          1. I know that, doesn’t mean I LIKE IT!*(@#*^!&@^#&!^@#&^!&*@#&^!@&*#^&!@*#&^!&*@#^&!*@^#&*^!@&*#^*!@&*#^!&@^#&^!*@&#^!&*@^#&!^@*&#^!*&@^#&!^@*#&^!*&@#^&*!^@#&*^!@&*#^&!&@#!&*@#^!&*^@#&*^!&*^@#&*!^@#&^!&*@#^*&!@^#&*^!&@#*

            Just don’t go above 65

  15. Except for the Blizzard of 78 (which triggered my interest in weather), Hurricane Bob is the storm for which I have the fondest memories. I was preparing for my sophomore year at ULowell, and had been named Lead Forecaster of the student-run Weather Center. I was there there several times a week over the summer updating the phone line we did as well as doing forecasts for WLLH radio. I was also working part-time at Weather Services Corp (TK actually got me the job!), and also at a supermarket. That weekend, myself and Gary Gray (The Weather Center Director and a great friend) got up to the Weather Lab on Saturday afternoon (8/17). We didn’t leave the lab until Monday night. We had a reporter from the Lowell Sun come up and write a story about us. We had a funnel cloud pass right by the window of the Weather Lab. We had nearly 6″ of rain from the storm, flooding parts of Lowell near campus. Once we thought the storm was over, we headed out to see the damage. As we were walking on the bridge over the Merrimack River, the backlash hit, with gusts to 60 mph. We ended up crawling back over the bridge to campus.

    That was a weekend that I will never forget.

    2. Thanks for sharing. I was at my Office in Canton (yes the building where
      the SNE weather conference was held recently). My Boss was driving in from
      his Summer place in Gloucester and driving through torrential rains.
      He called me and told me that he didn’t expect it to be that bad and ordered the office closed. We put out the word. I didn’t leave the office until Noon and drove home to be with the family and watched a WIMPORAMA at my house.

      That next weekend we took a drive to Falmouth and I could NOT believe
      the devastation we witnessed. We drove around where we should not have been. Walked around where we should not have been, but did we ever
      get an eye witness view of things. It was my wife, son and I. My daughter
      wanted no part of it.

      I have some video somewhere on the old 8mm tapes.
      I’d have to get the converted somehow.

      Very different story down that way compared to Boston. I believe peak gust at Logan was 64 mph. Peak gust here only perhaps into the 50s, but mostly
      in the 40s.

    3. Good memories, SAK.

      I remember Mac running up and down to the attic which did not have stairs and crawling to the eves to put pans under a leak we had. He must have done it tens of times because it was such a narrow space and the water was pouring in.

      Great way to spend his birthday.

  16. East Wind at Logan. I think I feel it here as well. My wind equipment doesn’t help
    due to all of the trees around, although it is reading SE. 😀

    Dp here down to 60. Temp 83, 78 at airport.

    1. why is it a laugh. More plausible than those silly CMC runs.

      I take it your not buying this one either?

        1. I looked at it strictly as a weather map.
          Now, ordinarily I’d pick up on that in an instant, but
          I had my blinders on looking at a serious weather chart.

          It is pretty funny, isn’t it?

          But laughs aside, it’s beginning to look a little ominous.
          Not saying we will be hit, but that looks to be a dangerous system and could cause major problems IF it
          makes landfall anywhere.

          We shall continue to monitor.

          1. I have to say that I was surprised I got it before you did, JPD. It is your kind of humor that I enjoy. But then perhaps it isn’t a surprise as I would not look at it from your meteorological perspective first.

          2. All of the model data looks ominous, but there’s one big fact you’re overlooking – the storm hasn’t formed yet. Until that actually happens, all of this is pure fantasy. Remember Danny last year? It was a hurricane east of the Antilles, and all the models insisted it would strengthen, smash the islands, then head for either the Bahamas/Florida, or into the Gulf. ALL of them. And not a single one had it dissipating before it even reached the Antilles, which is what actually happened.

            2. A fabulous example!
              I’ve already seeing social media posts about the “storm that’s gonna hit the East Coast”.

              1. The 12z GFS brings it into the Gulf with landfall near Pensacola. Like I said before, until it actually forms, it’s pure fantasy.

  19. No memories of Bob on my end… nor any student meteorologists who’ve spent their whole life in New England 😉

    Shows how overdo we are though. That was the last “big one”. Irene and Sandy were nothing, not for southern New England. We all know another will come, just a matter of when.

    As for our current tropical feature we’re watching, I actually wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up well west of the GFS forecast, and perhaps well south of New England in the end. The GFS and its ensembles have a forecast predicated on significant development. A weaker and slower developing storm, which has been the theme for several years, will go more west. The Euro doesn’t show anything.

    1. Irene was pretty nasty in terms of rain, for western parts of southern New England, though worse in VT.

      2. It was very bad in NH not far from WxWeathers college. Much of the area was unreachable, especially through the notches and along the Kanc

    2. The Euro shows nothing. Interesting as it usually does well.

      Perhaps it does better predicted the path of an already developed storm
      as does not do so well with those that have not yet developed? I dunno

      1. It won’t be expected to pick up on a system that has not formed yet. It’s not a tropical model. It has shown itself to do fairly well with existing systems, especially when interaction with mid latitude systems is ongoing.

  20. I guess it is safe to say that 1955 was anything but a “drought” year. 😉

    Nevertheless, a few years before my time still. I do remember hearing the hurricane stories of the 1950’s but not specifically about the CT floods…interesting indeed.

    Also, I guess 1955 was a hot one as well, much like this summer.

    1. The 1950s were a pretty active and variable decade, weatherwise, not only in the Northeast but quite a few other locations.

  21. Today’s solution on the 12Z operational GFS is a Gulf Coast landfall. Will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next couple of weeks. The CMC in past years had a good idea of a tropical system in the long range being out there just never did well with the intensity but sometimes would have it before other models as something to be watched.

    1. And the Ensemble mean is a track just off the East Coast. Especially that far out you should never focus too much attention on the Operational GFS, as it can and often is, an outlier.

      2. Sak, most of us know not to focus on it. It is there though, I have a feeling your going to go nuts come winter on this blog lol

  22. The 12Z CMC wants to take that Tropical about over Bermuda, while the HWRF
    Hurricane model takes it over the Southern Route into the Southern Caribbean.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2016081912/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_99L_43.png

    The 12Z GFDL doesn’t do too much with it in this time frame, but there is of it
    is in a precarious position at 126 hours

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2016081912/gfdl-p_mslp_wind_99L_22.png

  24. re: Joshua’s post on previous blog

    True, perhaps Dombrowski could have done more to bolster the pen, however,
    the red sox as currently constituted are good enough to win the division.
    However, the manager is NOT! If it were not for some of his lame brained idiotic decisions, they would be leading the division by several games.

    Farrell simply HAS TO GO!! He absolutely has NO IN-GAME management skills
    whatsoever and I am not sure he is much better at keeping the clubhouse together.
    The BAT BOY could do a better Job.

    IF the Sox are to win the division, they MUST get a new manager NOW, if not sooner before it is too late.

    Think I have an opinion on this? Not much. 😀 😀 😀

  25. A few isolated showers starting to pop on the western flank of the South Coast seabreeze.

    1. Logan has an EAST wind at 15mph. Is that enough to pop anything locally?
      I can feel it pretty good here, although it is NOT having much of an affect
      on temperature here, while it is 79 at the airport.

        1. Always the case, isn’t it.
          Haven’t left yet. We were going to eat on the way
          to Rockport, but now IF we even go, we’ll eat here
          first and then leave here around 6PM or so.
          We’ll get nailed with traffic, but it is what it is.

  26. TK, to your point on the 1950s, there were indeed some stormy times that decade, and not just in terms of tropical storm systems. March was a popular month for major events, too. We’ve often alluded to the March 1956 snowstorms on this blog, but there were some major east coast snowstorms in March of 1958 and also March of 1960.

  27. Dave, In-game management is not Farrell’s thing. I agree. His calls to the bullpen are often head-scratching, but also his use of pinch-hitters, or lack thereof. Farrell loves his veteran players and will play them long after their expiration date.

    The only thing I will repeat is that – to paraphrase Parcells – the ingredients (here I’m referring to the bullpen) are just not there no matter how you slice and dice it. They won 6 straight prior to yesterday’s game, but in at least 3 of the 6 games the bullpen found a way to make the games way too interesting. That can’t happen come playoff time if the Sox make it that far.

    1. The Red Sox could have had the division almost wrapped up by now. There have been too many games this season that “should” have been won.

    2. Excellent! Seeing all those “W’s” with the WestPac systems brings back memories!

  29. According to Mike Waunkum, 0.5″+ rains for early Monday and Invest 99-L early track for Puerto Rico then a watcher for the east coast thereafter…could be “Gaston”.

      1. Invest 99L using spaghetti plots and early Monday is “his” forecast, but don’t all mets including yourself use models in addition to experience TK? Which forecast are you referring to?

        1. Actually regarding Monday he didn’t show futurecast, he just stated on air that we could see half inch or more.

          1. I was referring to the rainfall forecast.

            We’ll see a trace to 0.25 inch with isolated heavier.

              1. She had mentioned that much of the day will be in the 70s, which it will. And with a gusty NW wind and a dew point in the 50s it’ll have that September feel to it.

  30. The 18z GFS is having more fun with the unformed tropical system. It’s going to be a fun next several days with the GFS.

    Boy, is that Sunday night system decreasing in rainfall potential.

    1. Realistically, we’re about 1 week away from worrying about the eventual track of that system, if it forms.

      As for Sunday night’s rain threat: No surprise there! 😀

      1. None at all (re : Sunday night).

        Not necessarily that particular tropical system, but in general, when I look at the EURO’s projection for the 500mb flow off the east coast in the long range (days 9 and 10), well I’d hope that’s just a short term pattern and not one that will be there for all of September.

        1. The pattern may become somewhat unfavorable again in regards to putting systems far enough south to threaten the US. They may be the type that turn way early beyond this upcoming potential system.

  31. Note the trend on most of today’s guidance with 99L. Weaker and more west in the shorter term, as I figured would happen. It’s very possible it never develops, as both the ECMWF and UKMET show no development. That’s a tough combo to bet against.

  32. Windows open wide tonight for a pleasantly cool night of sleeping under the Full Buck Moon. ⭐️⭐️

    1. Mine open as well. All kids and all six grandkids were here for Macs birthday. They all thought it felt humid (kids and not grands) with windows open which surprised me. To me it feel glorious. My niece who also joined us liked the windows open as well.

      Enjoy shotime!! The moon is glorious

        1. 🙂

          I have used AC some but most of this summer I have had Windows open. But I open windows every winter morning and sleep with window open some no matter how cold.

  33. TK – Will the “feel of fall” temps for a portion of next week give way for yet more HHH temps next weekend?

  34. I checked BZ forecast. They do have 80s for those fall days. Although 70 doesn’t feel like fall to me. Feels nice but not fall

      1. The odds that this run of the Canadian is right are roughly the same odds that Clay Buchholz wins 20 games for the Sox this season.

        1. Sak I know, what I am stating is that sometimes models even though, could be under performing can sometimes be right. I know its probably wrong

          for the most part, those on here that post the links of weather models, understand that its just that a weather model, its a guide not a forecast. They are cool to look at. It is a possibility. If something is cool on a weather model, they are going to post it on here to show people. I think your going to be saying the same thing over and over again come winter as this blog comes alive come December.

          1. 2 times during the 2014-2015 winter. Not a great track record.

            The only time I look at that model these days is to see what won’t happen. 😀

            1. not saying this model particularly TK I am saying that models we might think are dead wrong end up being right.

  37. General thunderstorm risk tomorrow from the SPC. Will see if this changes with 1:30pm update today. NWS out of Taunton mentioning possibility of a brief tornado tomorrow night.
    increasing low level shear in the vicinity of surface wave development along with high dew pts in the low 70s… low LCLs and MUcapes of 500-1000 j/kg will yield a low risk of a few strong storms and a potentially brief tornado

    1. They’re back to mentioning the possibility of a tornado from everything, even a passing flock of birds…

  38. Quick peak at 6z NAM its showing some supercell composite values with the higher ones in western parts central parts of MA and western central parts of CT in 0z to 6z time period. In Boston at 9z 2pm shows value of 0.8 Helicity values over 100 in Boston area 9z. Bullseye for the helicity values Springfield area west at 3z.
    6z GFS NADA for those values 6z NAM was showing.

  40. Do yourself a favor and don’t try to figure out how any potential tropical system might or might not bring us a direct hit or indirect rain with any runs of the GFS any time soon.

    It will be a waste of time and energy.

    I’d say that about the Canadian too but SAK already covered that. 😉

    1. I’ve already seen a few people on Twitter commenting that the GFS has shown a Gulf hit on the last few runs, meaning the East Coast threat is lower. Ignoring the fact that this thing still hasn’t even formed, the GFS Ensemble mean has been off the East Coast the entire time.

      1. It’s funny how knowing meteorology, including the way the models work, and don’t work, actually helps. 😉

  41. Good morning from JP and Not Rockport, ME.

    We left here at 4PM with the intention of stopping for dinner somewhere around
    Biddeford or Portland. Made it as far as kennebunkport as my wife just could not
    continue try as she did. We got off at that exit, had something to eat and got back
    on 95 heading South.

    re: weather

    With the GFS 0Z run (didn’t stay up for complete run), it looked like it totally lost
    the tropical, but looking this morning, it very much delays development until
    in the gulf. Ditto 6Z run. Canadian, oh well SAK covered that.

    Euro has something WELL off the East coast. Not even sure that is the same system
    or something else??????

    So, we shall see.

    Re: tomorrow
    Haven’t even looked at anything.

    Who is this tornado person at NWS? My wife laughs her head off every single time
    that person mentions the word tornado. He/she should give it a rest. Too much crying wolf.

    1. I’m sure some media is already hyping that scenario, again meaningless before the formation of an actual cyclone.

  43. New post!

    I took out the mention of any offshore cyclone for now because I probably shouldn’t have had it in there to begin with, even though the ensembles still do. I’m going to wait a bit longer before considering it.

    The upcoming 5 days are the most important anyway.

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