Saturday Forecast

115 Comments

9:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 20-24)…
High pressure east of the region sends a weak marine flow into the region into an existing seasonable August air mass. This takes the early morning clouds and breaks them up but also creates diurnal clouds to mix with the sun. The only clouds that may grow enough to produce an isolated shower would need help from hills and mountains well west and northwest of Boston, but any of these would be brief. Cloudiness reforms tonight in the lower levels and breaks up again Sunday, but more substantial cloudiness will advance from west to east later in the day as well as some lower cloudiness returning from the south as the moisture level increases ahead of a cold front. This front will cross the region west to east in the early hours of Monday, probably with a band of non-beneficial showers. Monday’s daytime weather will be dry and cooler with a gusty breeze and a sun/cloud mix as a refreshing air mass arrives from Canada. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature sunshine and a slow warm-up as high pressure dominates.
TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Patchy fog early. Isolated afternoon shower possible hills far west and north of Boston. Highs 78-88, coolest coastal areas. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog late. Lows 60-68, warmest urban areas. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog early. Chance of showers late in the day mainly south and west of Boston. Increasingly humid. Highs 76-86, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Band of showers moving west to east across the region. Humid. Lows 60-68. Wind S 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to W behind the showers.
MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Drying out. Highs 75-82. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68. Highs 78-86.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68. Highs 80-88.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 25-29)…
Other than a few isolated showers around the August 27-28 weekend with a dissipating front in the region, mainly dry and warm to hot weather is expected.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 30-SEPTEMBER 3)…
A lower than average confidence forecast at this time. Leaning toward a few episodes of isolated to scattered showers with continued above normal temperatures.

115 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. Here is the discussion from the Taunton NWS office that JJ mentioned.

    Perhaps more concerning is the development of a surface wave on this
    approaching frontal boundary. While this will increase the heavy
    rain threat via convergence…increasing low level shear in vicinity
    of surface wave development along with high dew pts in the low
    70s…low LCLs and MUcapes of 500-1000j/kg will yield a low risk of
    a few strong storms and a potentially brief tornado. While many
    mesoscale processes need to come into play for this to materialize
    and virtually impossible to predict at this time range…the
    synoptic background environment and time of year /warm SSTs not a
    limiting factor/ yields an enhanced risk for a brief tornado.

    2. So, let’s detail it, and then say it’s impossible to predict…
      I have nothing further to add.

        1. I remember as we had planned to go to Humarock for the weekend. It was second year we had returned after a long while following my moms passing. It didn’t have the impact that was expected but it did impact some of the cape and the islands. IIRC the winds were hurricane force or near.

          1. I also remember a couple of others….Danny and Felix perhaps …..that danced around a while and didn’t make landfall but did produce an ugly sea, coastal problems and power outages. I’ll have to check my names since they were a while ago so st the edge of my memory bank so please don’t hold me to them.

            1. 1997 and 1995 respectively….and my memory didn’t fail me…..this time :). We were lucky enough to be at the coast for both. Awesome ocean viewing.

      1. And everyone (except TK), completely missed the point. Edouard was heading up the coast Labor Day Weekend. A Hurricane Warning was issued. Most people ignored it because they wanted to enjoy their holiday weekend on the Cape. Then, sometime that Sunday morning the light clicked on and everyone decided at the same time to leave. Route 6 leading to the Sagamore bridge was backed up beyond Yarmouth. It took some people 8 hours just to get off the Cape. Yes, the storm turned and missed, though the outer bands did bring rain and gusty winds to the Cape.

        My point is, a hurricane heading towards the Cape during a holiday weekend is a disaster waiting to happen.

          1. As was I since a lot of discussion here has focused on people not trusting predictions erc……a point is only what is in the person’s thoughts and difficult to figure out since there are many variables.

        2. Hmmmmmm TK said I do, I do. We changed our plans, as I said, because we knew there was a threat and are smart enough to know hurricanes are unpredictable. What you saw was human nature. Recall Katrina? It was the epitome of everyone, including those in command of underestimating, warning far too late and bad planning. Even as well as SC planned for and handles Hugo, there were many who didn’t heed the warning. A hurricane anywhere near the water….or in the case of Hugo…..inland is a disaster waiting to happen.

          Even for Irene, many vacationers, including us, headed away from the ocean. Many residents did as well. Sadly, there will always be those who think it won’t happen because in the past it has not or who think they can ride it out and then risk the lives of those who rescue them

          Just my opinion.

          1. Also as I recall the warnings were there but forecasters kept stressing that it might head east. Kind of like the snowstorms where you are damned if you do and damned if you don’t. And no matter what you do, people find fault. We do create our own messes

  6. Waht’s going on with this radar display? Those are not real echoes, so what is
    causing them? Some sort of radar test? The echoes are stationary.
    Super ground clutter? I dunno

    I have seen radar test where planes drop batches of foil to test radar, but they would
    be moving. What’s up?

  8. This excerpt is from the Upton NWS office this morning re: tomorrow convection

    With strengthening low-level
    veering wind profiles with weak wave development and low lcl`s
    would have to monitor for rotating updrafts.

  10. Not liking this cloud cover and breeze. If I was playing golf or working in the yard, ok. But having an outdoor pool birthday party, eh, not so much.

  11. The ocean air boundary is pretty active this midday. Should all shift north and northwest and weaken as the day goes along.

      1. Oh you wanted to show the double header?

        he he he

        There seems to be an endless parade of them on the horizon.
        we shall see.

  16. re: Red Sox and Rick Porcello

    Well, I must admit, I was dead wrong about Rick Porcello.
    Whatever it was that the Red Sox saw in him when they made the trade for him,
    Is showing in his performance now. I guess it just took a whole year to adjust
    and find himself.

    17-3 on August 20th with 6-8 starts left. Unless there is a total collapse, he is
    destined to become a 20 game winner and possible Cy Young award winner.

    Looking mighty fine.

  18. Has anyone determined if that is actual convention on the radar(s), or ground clutter?
    Lightning strikes on Long Island…

    Might be spy drones from the NFL tuned on Gillette Stadium and Patriots practice????

    Or, caravans of Parrot Heads heading to Mansfield????

    1. I saw something on twitter that the echoes in CT were real. Not sure about
      Long Island. They don’t look real to me.

    1. Friday evening on Sept 2nd. 😀 😀 😀
      Batten down the hatches. Make the milk runs. Bring in the yard furniture!
      The world is about to end!

      2. We have tickets to the Deutsche Bank tourney for September 2. If you zoom in and look very carefully at the GFS – 312 hours out, you can actually see us on 18 at TPC-Norton.

        2. Enjoy and I hope weather cooperates. It is a great tournament. Mac and son went several times. Son caddied for the pro-celeb several,years ago cause he was a Ouimet scholar. He missed Freddie by one which is probably a good thing cause I would have had to join them 😉

  21. Must be real:
    Flash Flooding in Suffolk County, NY

    From NWS, NYC:

    AT 132 PM EDT…SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
    HOWEVER…FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY STILL OCCURING. DOPPLER RADAR IS
    INDICATING ESTIMATES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OVER THE PAST 3
    HOURS…MUCH OF WHICH FELL WITHIN 1 1/2 HOURS.

    1. Well that’s what we have been looking for. Now I would like to see reasons for it?
      What the hell was causing it?????

      2. Sure would seem. The one just south of Hartford has been stationary also and has gobbled up the few cells that came up behind it. The one just south of me seems to be moving

          1. Agree. Unless they are not dropping much rain. That is all I can think of. I’ve been watching them for a while.

  23. A quick lesson on what is causing the showers (and a few t-storms) today…

    The set-up today is not really unusual for southern New England in late summer. We’re at the time of year where water is warm so sea breezes don’t tend to kill convection. We do set up enough contrast between land temp and ocean temp to develop showers (and sometimes t-storms) along these boundaries. If you looked at radar about 1:30PM you saw slowly weakening cells that had been over Long Island for a while with some flash flooding issues. These were ignited by a collision of 2 sea breeze boundaries over Long Island, one from the north and one from the south. The relative equal strength of these and the lack of strong winds aloft have allowed the showers/storms to remain nearly stationary, hence some flash flood warnings. Another boundary of ocean air also exists from CT through central MA with additional isolated and locally heavy showers. This will be drifting northwestward with time today. Other than the Long Island activity, there has been virtually no lightning with any of this activity in CT and MA and will be very little of that. Eventually all of it will dissipate later in the day as the contrast becomes less apparent.

    This setup is very similar to what you see in Florida during much of the year, with the sea breeze boundaries often causing convective activity.

      1. Localized downpours. The only reason the flash flood issue took place on Long Island is those particular showers/storms were stronger and stayed nearly stationary for a while longer between the 2 boundaries.

  24. This tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    Scattered downpours today… They won’t move much when they develop with super weak winds aloft

  25. We had a brief shower here in Chelmsford about 20 minutes ago, the sun is back out in full force, and the pavement is rapidly drying.

    1. Please send that shower here. I know the chances of showers occurring in Boston are close to zero, but I’m praying for some rain at this point.

      1. I don’t think it’s ever going to rain in Boston again this year.
        Wait till 2017.

        At this point I’d take a hurricane to get the rain.

  26. Super sea breeze today. Here is JP NO EFFECT at all.
    One thermometer reads 90 and the other 86.4. True temperature probably 88.
    It is HOT. 79 at the airport with ESE wind at 18 mph.

    One plus, some dry air mixed down or something. DP dropped to 59 here.

    I just put away groceries and I am sweating bullets. On my 3rd polar seltzer since
    noon!

  28. Only NAM model showing EHI Values and supercell composite values. Highest in western parts of CT at 3z. 6z some values showing up in eastern areas but less than western parts of CT.
    12z GFS had Nada

    2. That NWS discussion is nothing but HYPE. Crying WOLF again. How do you
      take them seriously?????????????????????????????????????????????????

  30. If other computer guidance was showing what NAM was showing I would have more interest in tomorrow night.

          1. I don’t think they want any part of this countr. They are offering land to anyone who wants to escape here just in case.

            Oh wait….were you talking about weather 😉

            1. I think so. Hopefully, I won’t have to consider Canada or the UK as an alternative residence. 😀

  34. The GFS is garbage with the tropics. To no surprise at all, it has completely caved to the ECMWF not only with “99L”, which probably won’t develop at all, but also with the wave currently moving off Africa, which will probably become a powerful hurricane staying well out at sea.

    1. It appears that they are ALL garbage.

      It like watching cartoons. Pure fantasy and for entertainment purposes only.

      I was watching a Bernie video yesterday and he stated on the air
      that he thought the Hurricane models were GARBAGE! I couldn’t believe my ears. NOT that the current runs were garbage but the models themselves
      were! Amazing stuff.

        1. Agree, but did you read TK’s comments regarding
          the Euro’s handling of the tropics? I take it you don’t agree?

          1. I think he basically said that it’s not a tropical model, so it shouldn’t be expected to do well with developing tropical cyclones? In general I would agree with that, but the GFS isn’t a tropical model either and the Euro routinely performs better than it. Sometimes the Euro will fail to detect storms or develop them too slowly, but that problem pales in comparison to the false alarm rate on the GFS, and I think they’ve improved on the Euro. But it’s always a delicate process, and it’s best to just follow multi-cycle trends and of course look at what’s actually going on.

    1. DP has dropped to 52 here. I think I have a pipe line to Hudson’s Bay.

      AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH REFRESHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
      AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
      AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
      AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
      AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

  36. Sun was still VERY hot today. My subjective experience has been echoed by, among others, my daughter: The sun feels hotter this year. I think this has to do with the VERY dry conditions. I told my daughter she’d remember this summer fondly one day in the not-so-distant future when she’s living in Ireland or England (where she’d like to live). This said, the heat is bothering me (and her) at this point. An Irish shower and breeze would do me good.

  38. From NWS

    — Changed Discussion —
    *** Band of showers and embedded thunderstorms with localized
    torrential rainfall may result in some street flooding tonight ***

    really? 4KM NAM gives boston a whopping 0.04 inch. Yup torrential rain! 😀

    And they further say:

    The main idea is that the overall severe weather threat across the
    region is low overnight. However, there is a low risk for a few
    strong to severe thunderstorms across eastern CT/RI and eastern MA.
    More times than not, we escape with little if any severe weather in
    these setups. However, given a decent low level jet with 70+
    dewpoints and 500 J/KG of cape, a severe storm or two can not be
    ruled out with isolated wind damage. Highest risk for this will be
    across the south coast, where highest instability resides. If a
    secondary mesoscale Low develops in this region, there even would be
    a small risk for a brief tornado or waterspout given very low LCL/s
    and SST now in the middle 70s on the south coast. Again though, this
    remains a low probability but something will have to watch closely
    overnight.

    1. Interesting that the Euro wants to deliver about 1/2 inch for boston.
      Sure….

      Then it is bone dry for the 9 days following.

  40. Update will be a bit delayed today … 10AM hour.
    Was in Jaffrey NH until quite late last night and have a couple errands this morning!

    I can assure you the sun is no hotter today than it was a few decades ago. My mom attributes the hotter feeling sunshine to one thing: aging. She says it with a big grin as the 84 year old goes out to get on her hands and knees and pull weeds. 😉

    1. Hmmmmmm….so your mom noticed it too.

      And I’ll,tell that to my 30 year old 🙂

      And since I didn’t notice, I will just nod and smile.

    2. Maybe this particular year because it’s been sunny nearly every day, all summer. It’s been unavoidable and I’m not complaining 🙂 🙂 🙂

Comments are closed.