Monday Forecast

150 Comments

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 22-26)…
Cold front offshore. The passage of the front overnight was a bit interesting as some wind damage occurred in Marlboro and Concord MA. Will wait for the NWS report before commenting later on this. No changes to the forecast going forward from here. A long dry stretch resumes today after brief overnight moderate to heavy rain.
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Drying out. Highs 75-82. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-56 interior valleys, 57-63 elsewhere. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-86. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68. Highs 80-88.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 62-70. Highs 82-90.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 62-70. Highs 82-90.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 27-31)…
Mainly dry weather. Temperatures above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)…
Overall pattern mainly dry. Will watch a couple tropical systems offshore but current indications are that they will not threaten the region. Temperatures mostly above normal.

150 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Interesting night ….. It will be interesting to see what the NWS finds in its survey of the damage.

    1. I should not try to total rain amounts from obs, I never get them right. 🙂 🙂 glad to see it was even more !

  3. Logan received 0.84 in of rain overnight, mostly falling in 3 hrs. If I’m reading plymouth’s obs correctly, they rec’d 0.33. Based on what I was hearing overnight, I believe Marshfield probably was a lot closer to Logan’s amount.

  4. Thanks TK.

    0.62″ rain in Wrentham, and looks like quite a bit more to the west, both northwest and southwest. Over-performed in that department. A very, very dry pattern ahead though.

    As for the damage, radar alone to me suggests more likely brief tornado than straightline winds (could be both), but I’ll also wait for the official report before commenting on that.

  5. Tornado or not, in Sudbury we had some damage. I was asleep but my husband woke at around 3:25 to the sound of heavy rain. He put on the tv and on channel 4 a tornado warning was just about to expire for Sudbury. So he went back to sleep. When I got up at 6:30 I noticed the windows were rain splattered – like the wind was blowing horizontally. Some of the taller trees in distance leaning slightly in different directions. And there are a few branches down in our yard. I was shocked when I put on the weather and heard what happened in Concord. West Concord is only a few miles down the road. And, again, there was no thunder or lightning. TK explained why; but nonetheless, I have to say – scary when you think about it.

  9. Thanks TK. I was very happy to have you and Tom and Kane here last night. There was absolutely no threat here but it did exist where some of our WHW family lives. My niece in Marlborough slept thru it. Rainshine, so happy to hear all ok there.

    Several mets mentioned a hook. I’m with TK that it prob was not a tornado. But then the damage is bad for some so it ends up being semantics I guess

  10. As for getting betters idea of a txt warning system of sorts for those who want to opt in

    I’m in and will help in any way. I would have txtd u in a second last night, getting better, if I knew your number and location.

  11. I was somewhat surprised to see a number of posts so early this morning from the previous blog, but given the stormy conditions to the N/W it is certainly understandable. Off the top of my head, I don’t recall many overnight posts here during big snows though.

    Thanks for the updates, everyone!

  12. Good morning. Despite what has been reported, uneventful night in JP, other than
    some decent rain for a change.

    I recorded 0.99 inch and I am most grateful for that.
    Btw, the 0.91 for Logan looks good.

    re: Damage reports

    I was not up. Did not look at a radar, so I really can’t comment.
    Based on what I have read, it sounds like it “could” have been a tornado.
    Frankly, I am surprised to hear that. IF it were a tornado, then the NWS
    was not crying wolf after all. Interesting.

    I am sure TK will update us as soon as he hears.

    1. YAY OLD SALTY!!! Near an inch. Wow.

      And my view which is worth a plug nickle, even it it is not determined to have been a tornado, it was close enough to have a warning from NWS ahead. It does keep people aware that it is possible and prepared even if it is only close to being one. If I am not mistaken, it has been mentioned here more than once that the straight line winds, etc. can do a lot of damage.

      1. I went to sleep NOT worried in the slightest and had
        NO intention of getting up to view the “action”. 😀
        I was just interested in SLEEP. 😀

        1. Believe me, I had not intended to be awake and was also not worried. Nada here except .56 rain. I was up at 2:00ish turning off the irrigation system which I had to figure out first. By the time I read the instructions with a magnifying glass (why do they make printing so tiny), I was really awake. So went to WHW – where else would I go – and saw Tom’s comment.

          So Tom and I had a bit of a party soon to be joined by Kane!! And I notice neither are here this am. Sleeping still 😉

          1. 🙂 :).

            Yup, feeling a little sleep deprived. It was nice having you and Kane to talk with.

            Seeing bits and pieces here and there on Twitter. Radar rotation shots, etc from 3 to 4 am last night. It won’t surprise me if that was an EF0/1, but it just as well could have been a microburst. I’m looking forward to the survey findings.

            2. Also, relative to other cloud tops in the line of rain showers, you can definitely see that storm looking back on IR from 3 to 4am. It definitely showed a colder cloud top, so I wonder how tall that cumulus cloud complex was.

            3. hehehe – I actually figured you were awake…. 😉

              I am also looking forward to seeing the findings. Oddly, it was nice having you and Kane here. I do recall a couple of other times (not many as Philip aptly pointed out) when some were on in the wee hours!

              1. Like a few of those snowstorms, especially Feb 2015. Especially the one that had that insane backlash that had thundersnow, the one where Cantore got a full fledged thunderstorm with 6 or 7 flashes in Plymouth.

    1. Thanks, JJ. I think Alcott Rd is right off center of Concord. I’ll have to check locations of other areas when I have a minute.

  18. Maybe they verified their spinning showers but they still got today’s sky condition wrong. 😉

      1. I think he is just saying that the rotation of updrafts verified, not
        necessarily a tornado. 😀

  19. I was actually up last night, because my weather radio went off, looked at radar, the storm looked impressive and there was rotation in the storm just to the south, could not see anything out the window, as it was very windy with heavy rain.

  20. JPDave this maybe the answer to your question
    Tweet from Terry Eliasen
    From @NWSBoston, earliest they may have some kind of determination of damage would be early afternoon

    1. Oh well, we wait then, don’t we? 😀

      I sure didn’t hear any thunder and I slept with an OPEN window
      just behind my head. I was prime for hearing it, IF it occurred. 😀

      As far as I could tell, it did not.

      BUT, I’ll happily take the rain. The vegetation looked very content this morning. I could almost here the trees saying AHHHHHHH

  22. Here is the tweet from NWS in Boston on that tornado
    BREAKING: EF-1 tornado confirmed in #Concord MA. Max wind 100 mph. 1/2 mi long & 400 yd wide. Occurred w/in larger area of wind damage.

    1. WOW!!!

      And I was denigrating the NWS for all of their tornado talk.
      They finally got it correct this time. You know the old saying?
      “Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn sometimes”
      Here I go again!! I should be saying: WELL DONE NWS. Very well done indeed!

      So, unless there was cloud-to-cloud lightning, there is proof that we
      can have a tornado without a thunderstorm. No? yes?

      Very interesting.

        1. Wankum kept mentioning it and said it was just odd – no lightening and time of night as well. I had seen prior on the lightening map that there was nothing.

          And that, JPD, was going to be my next question. I guess it does prove that.

      2. Except have they been wrong, JPD? I asked that yesterday. In the times this summer that they have said there is a possibility of rotation, if my memory (which doesn’t always work well) serves correctly, someone on here has seen signs of rotation.

        I would guess there is a very fine line between rotation and formation of a tornado but then that is an uneducated guess.

  24. Interesting on tornado. Can I assume they have looked at Marlborough area and determined it was not a tornado there? The damage there, from what I have read so may be incorrect, was much less.

  25. I was just on FB. Have not seen Matt here (may have missed his post) but he said there was Thunder (and of course lightening) in Billerica.

    I also wonder how close this was to GettingBetter.

          1. Yes. You cannot have thunder without lightning.

            None of the reporting stations in the area reported lightning.

  26. There have been two tornado touch downs so far in 2016 here in SNE both happening in August
    The EF 0 in North Haven, CT back on August 10th and this EF 1 tornado in Concord, MA.

  27. I am wondering about something. I looked at a map and seeing there was some damage in Marlboro and a little in Sudbury and then of course, in Concord – is it possible a funnel formed in Marlboro and went over Sudbury then touched down in Concord? I tried to what I think might have been the storm’s track from Marlboro to Concord and Sudbury was right in the middle. If there were straight-line winds in Marlboro, could that have been from a possible funnel cloud? (not sure; just asking) Marlboro to Concord is SW to NE and most tornadoes follow that track. However, I know there was wind damage in other areas, like Hopkinton which is not near any of these towns. I wonder what we might have seen if it was daytime w/o any rain – fascinating – butI would prob’ly hiding in the bathroom once a tornado warning went out.

      1. There has been some light damage on Hudson Rd., Concord Rd. at Union St. Just some branches down. Some branches down in our neighborhood, too.

  28. For all the criticism of NWS – and I am guilty of criticizing them mercilessly at times – it’s important that warnings are issued if warranted. Warnings are of course no guarantee something dangerous will occur. In fact, language contained in warnings is almost always probabilistic.

    The rain that fell overnight is welcome, of course. Nevertheless, as TK alluded to yesterday, it wasn’t going to be of the drought-busting kind. We’d need a week of one inch rainstorms to solve our drought problem.

    1. I agree, Joshua. And sadly, TK is very right that a bit of rain (even 1/2-1 inch) so occasionally just won’t do any good.

    1. Nice.

      I mentioned the met on one of the media channels (cannot remember which one) saying we would get our first taste of fall today and tomorrow yet having 80 degrees on the 5 day forecast panel. I was just out and heard several comments that the wind felt cold….one from my daughter 🙂 But one met has it possibly down in the 40s one night this week. Nice!

      And I do love love love the feel of today.

    2. Yup, the Rocky Mountain States do get snow late in August, much more so
      in September. Our own White mountains often get some snow late in
      September, but fairly rare in August.

      1. Most people don’t remember this, but while Hurricane Andrew was slamming into South Florida on August 24, 1992, a snowstorm dropped 6-10″ of snow on parts of Montana. Great falls had over 8″ and Helena had 6″.

        Still, it’s nice to see it on the models for the 1st time this season. Definitely a sign of the change in seasons.

        2. SAK, you haven’t been around here in the Winter or at least not posting. Some of us are Winter freaks. Sounds
          like you enjoy a good snow storm as well as many of us here.

    1. Complain as I might about the HHH weather, I am not quite ready for
      their weather just yet. Perhaps by mid-October or so, I’ll be ready. 😀

  34. 12z EURO going very intense with tropical system in Gulf of Mexico, west of Tampa, FL.

    I believe this might be the current Invest 99 ?

    2. I don’t know which is invest what???????

      Here it is at 240 hours. Where does it go from there?
      Up the coast OR out to sea?
      Hard to determine from the upper air data available to me, even with
      subsription, I only have 300MB and NOT 200 MB. At 300 MB it is
      a closed circulation, so I don’t have a clue where it is going from there.
      I am guessing ENE out to sea, but it could just as easily come up the coast.

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016082212/ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png

      1. Invest is short, I believe for Investigate. The NHC refers to them that way before they Are classified or named.

        950mb ……. Powerful indeed !

        Under that exact simulation, the right front quadrant landfalling right into the most concave part of Florida’s coastline.

        1. Oh I understand what the Invest means, I just don’t know which system is assigned which Invest number?????
          😀

          1. When I run a hurricane model for a specific
            invest number, 1 or more Other invests show
            in the same chart so I sometimes can’t tell which is which. 😀

  35. You never want to see a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico since its going to hit land. Thankfully this is out in future but the folks in Louisiana who went through that flooding don’t need a tropical system

    1. At this point, Florida is better equipped to hande a Hurricane than
      Louisiana is. It would be catastrophic if it hit Louisiana.

  37. Florida has not had a hurricane since Wilma a category 3 hurricane hit in late October in 2005. That system I remember was a category 5 at one point in the Caribbean and pressure was very low.

    1. Sorry, didn’t realize both images were on the same link.

      Just click on either one to view properly. Tx.

  39. for rainshine….I’m getting lost scrolling back up.

    The three areas that have the damaged…….Walker St (Marlborough) to Hudson Rd/Concord Rd (Sudbury) to Alcott Rd (Concord)… form pretty much a straight line SW-NE

    Out of curiosity for anyone in the know, it seems rainshine has an interesting question. The cell was traveling SW to NE. Could it have put down straight line winds at the start and then eventually developed into the tornado in Concord?

    Fascinates me, rainshine. Thanks!

    1. Storms can easily go between straight line and downburst or tornadic damage.

      They are fluid, very changing things.

        1. And thank you, Vicki, for replying to me. It was a scary situation, especially for those who got much damage. Especially w/o thunder and lightning. Let me say – as much as I enjoy following thunderstorms and watching the clouds, as long as they don’t cause damage or injury – I am truly looking forward to Autumn! Today is really nice – windows open – refreshing air. I love the change of seasons.

            1. I do enjoy these teases of things to come as well!

              Thanks go to you, rainshine. As you can tell, you intrigued me and gave me a fun focus for the day!

  40. Tweet from Eric Fisher talking about Concord tornado.
    Per @JoeDawg42, Concord #Tornado was 1st nocturnal (Midnight-5am) tornado in southern New England since 7/11/1970 in Townsend

      2. Wankum said that repeatedly. He was the only met covering anything that I found. Perhaps, others jumped in later but once I found him, I stuck with him.

        It was fun watching his fascination with the lack of T&L and also the timing. Like a wide eyed kid on Christmas morning. I always liked him when he was on the old 10:00 news.

  42. My word on last night’s tornado… would’ve weighed in earlier but spent the bulk of my day (ironically) at NWS, then had to run to an appointment.

    All I can say is the performance of the Taunton NWS last night was truly commendable, and I’m glad to see them getting the recognition they deserve (Gov. Baker even put out a tweet about their performance). Certainly the warranted well in advance mention of the low but non-zero tornado potential was excellent forecasting, not to mention a good call on the higher rain amounts, but more importantly the event itself was handled brilliantly. Warning went out at 3:01, touchdown was around or just before 3:20. Great lead time, on a midnight shift no less. I’ll be finishing my internship there tomorrow, and I’m very happy to have gotten the experience there.

    I’ll link our local storm report and rainfall totals. Special to me as these are the first products I’ve really worked on in person. The “JEO” at the bottom is me 🙂

    https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201608221412-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=LSR

    1. WxWatcher great work and I totally agree with you in regard to the NWS. They deserve the kudos. Amazingly….which was due to a power far greater than the NWS…the tornado set down in a heavily populated area without serious injury to any people.

    2. Thank goodness there were no major injuries from the early morning storms! Along with nocturnal, was it also a “rain wrapped” tornado? I recall hearing that term used frequently during the Spring tornado season.

      1. The rain wrapped possibility was discussed a little at the office; it’s sort of a moot point since it occurred at night and you wouldn’t be able to see it anyways, but it was probably rain wrapped based on radar.

        Vicki, thank you as always for the kind words and agree that the Concord area really got lucky with the lack of injuries!

        1. You are welcome. I am one of your biggest fans. At this point my kids would tell me I am embarrassing you but that is not my intent 🙂 I have no doubt you will be a great success in your future endeavors.

        2. Glad you got to do your internship. That’s pretty special to be able to do and was probably hard to get.

  43. Temperature 73 with Dew Point of 50. I did not feel the feel of Fall during the day.
    Just took out the trash and am definitely feeling it now!

  44. The 18z has taken a pass on the Gulf development.
    Also keeps everything well off shore. Even a subsequent African wave.

  45. I cannot fathom John Farrell’s moves and logic.

    The kind Benintendi hits his 1st major league triple and home run yesterday
    and he rides the bench today in favor of Chris Young. YIKES Farrell! what a pin-head
    dumb-ass! FIRE HIM already!!!

      1. My bad. No Problem with that one. I still don’t like the manager,
        even if this was a good move. 😀

  46. We had 1.63″ in Coventry, CT from the rain last night and a bit of thunder and lightning. Over 5.5″ of rain so far this month! I’m glad eastern MA got in on some of the action as you guys have had it much worse as far as drought is concerned.

    And WxWatcher – I’m happy to get my spotter report in your first public information statement!

    1. Cool Mark! The forecasting and fancy model graphics are cool and all, but ground truth observation is the backbone of the operation, and the precip information is especially important with the drought.

  48. Eeks! Just getting caught up – was wild at work today.

    First – Vicki God bless you for your thoughts – I’m guessing they helped steer the storm clear of me as a snored away! We live in Westford but just over Carlisle line so about 15 min from Concord Center. The rest of my family lives in Concord – the storm hit about a mile from my parents house.

    As silly as it sounds – but harmless as no injuries – I am glad that once in a while my chicken little thing does get validated. But I am so so glad that everyone is ok! I know many people who live in the Ridge – where I think the tornado hit – so I was very glad that there were no injuries.

    But WOW!!

    1. Yup – looks like it hit on “the ridge” which is the nickname for the streets/houses directly behind sleepy hollow right outside of the center. I believe Alcott is the road right next to the Orchard house that goes up the hill to Independence. Lots of new construction — we shall see how the new developers work stood the test – hehehe!! ;-). Ps I’m not a fan of tearing down and rebuilding huge monstrosities…

    2. I took several deep sighs as I read. And am very glad all is ok at your home and your families. A dear friend feom college used to live on Alcott which is why I know where it is.

      As I recall we may have others here who are in Westford. But I get the towns mixed up when they get further away feom concord.

      WOW sure sums it up

  49. Had a beautiful day hiking the Caps Ridge Trail up Mount Jefferson in the White Mtns Saturday. It was a top 10 day…..mostly sunny with highs in the lower 80’s at the base and in the upper 50’s near the summit with (relatively) light winds gusting to only about 25 mph. Visibility was somewhere in the 60-80 mile range. Some pics…

    Looking west from Jefferson towards Bretton Woods and the Mt Washington hotel. I like this picture (taken from about 5,500′) as you can see we are basically at the same elevation as the base of the cumulus clouds:
    http://i.imgur.com/rCmeYAh.jpg

    Looking north from Jefferson summit to Mt Adams:
    http://i.imgur.com/uXjiGXi.jpg

    Looking south to Mt Washington from Jefferson:
    http://i.imgur.com/eIyCh2z.jpg

    Summit of Washington was occasionally obscured by clouds but mostly in the clear. Great day, I love it up there.

    It is 37 on the summit now with 80 mph winds and a wind chill of 20. A taste of Fall for sure!

    1. Perfect day for you. I love looking at the pictures. I think I just stared as at each for about five minutes. Sounds more like a taste of winter on the summit. And I love it

  50. Proud nana here. Seven year old grandaughter has found storms in the southeast on radar and had to proudly let me know. I sent pics of the systems off Africa …and explained about tropical systems. When she can read a touch better, she may become the youngest WHW member.

  54. 0z spaghetti plots for Invest 99L:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=http://i65.tinypic.com/908yhd.jpg&key=a58d57ade1779750aa3cba651537768631495c9bd21ca3b05f43d216b7ed9734

    It would certainly appear that FLA is in the crosshairs if this thing develops. This is the disturbance that the 12z Euro blew up into hurricane and brought across FLA and into the eastern Gulf. GFS however wants nothing to do with it.

    1. Mark – what would be the timeline of a FL HIT if 99 L comes to fruition? We are headed to vero beach a week from today…

          1. The 12z Euro had it crossing FLA Wed 8/31 thru Thurs 9/1. But obviously TK is right – you cant predict exact time this far out or for that matter strength or location. The spaghetti plots show this hitting anywhere from the Carolinas to Cuba. I wouldn’t worry about right now and just keep monitoring.

    1. Your thoughts on the HWRF vs the GFDL?
      Are either or both any good? Frankly, I find the Euro to be superior.

  58. My tropics thoughts this morning…

    The easier one is “Gaston”, which still looks poised to become a strong hurricane as it moves out to sea. May not peak for close to a week. And again, that one isn’t really a threat.

    “99L”, on the other hand, is an extremely complicated forecast with many interactions and multiple factors on the large scale and small scale to contend with. For example, what becomes of TD Fiona could be very critical in how this all turns out. The remains of the tail of the cold front that passed us yesterday are also a factor. How these features interact will determine how it all plays out, and there’s no easy answer. I’d expect continued large swings in the models.

  59. New post. A bit short on time so it’s very short and not much “substance”. Will expand in comments as the day goes on.

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