Sunday Forecast

128 Comments

2:09AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 1)…
No changes today. Cold fronts due in the early hours of Monday and sometime later Wednesday. Ahead of front number 1 it warms up today, a few isolated showers occur near the front overnight, a slight cool-down occurs Monday before it warms again Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of front number 2, then cools down a little more significantly at the end of the period as a batch of cooler air arrives from Canada.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-80 shoreline, 80-86 interior. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Isolated showers/thunderstorms overnight. More humid. Lows 62-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Highs 77-85. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68. Highs 80-88, cooler Cape Cod.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Lows 62-70. Highs 82-90, cooler Cape Cod.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 55-62. Highs 73-80.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)…
Dry weather will dominate as high pressure dominates. This includes the Labor Day Weekend September 3-5. Temperatures near normal to start, then warming to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)…
No indication of a significant break in the dry and overall warm pattern.

128 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Tropics…
    Gaston: Hurricane. Recurving as expected. Fish storm.
    91L: Too much dry air. Will barely hold together as an entity.
    99L: Looks very disorganized. Conditions poor for development in the Florida Straits. Conditions slightly better for development as this gets into the eastern GOM but not expecting explosive development, rather a disjointed system with lots of rain over FL and very gusty showers in the eastern GOM. We’ll see if it has a future more organized, but it’s iffy at best. Probably destined to cross back over FL and then head into the western Atlantic. May produce some flooding rain in its overland travels.

      1. It was. When I went to sleep, the inside temp was 82. Hottest it’s been all summer when I had Windows open. Really was not what I’d expected

  5. Now that it appears that cool dry summer polar air will be arriving the end of the workweek, I have been wondering why is that back in the Don Kent days, this airmass would make fairly frequent visits even in the hottest summers but has been snubbing us for the past 30 years or so.

    Hopefully next weekend will feel mighty good. 🙂

    1. After he routinely trashes the GFS. This proves that it is nothing but pure hype. Disgraceful.

    1. Just a nice thunderstorm blow up. It’s very weak, disorganized, and being destroyed by dry air. Brief development, then it will weaken and turn back out to sea.

      1. TD 8 as of 11am. Agree with your thinking though that it will be short lived, hopefully low impact in the brief encounter with the coast too.

  9. Looking in the crystal 8-ball today…

    September: Hot & dry.
    October: Warm & dry.
    November: Mild & dry.
    December: Mild & dry.
    January: Cold & dry.
    February: Cold & dry.
    March: Cold & dry.
    April: Cool & dry.
    May: Warm & wet.

    Mark it down & score me. 😉

    1. Look to be tough getting that ocean temp down for snow chances.
      Perhaps more Ocean Effect chances?? who knows.

    2. I already think you are spot on….one, and most important, because you always are and two it works with my theory 😉

    3. Though I am wondering that, if its cold enough, even if it is relatively dry, we could have high snow ratio’s which will keep snowfall at least around normal??

          1. It’s not highly unusual to have back-to-back seasons of above or below. At least if it’s cold for part of the season the man made stuff will be doable. Again though, super long range outlook based on the feeling of how the overall long term indices go, and anticipated error in long range forecast guidance.

          2. In all honestly, Matt, the ski seasons have suffered for well over a decade. Their only saving grace is that they have better snow making equipment. Back in the day, this was far different.

    1. If you decide to go with Version 2, you really should specify somewhere what each region actually covers. My definition of the “Northeast” might not be the same as yours.

      Also, in my 25+ years of doing this, I have never once heard the term “Pacific Southwest”. It’s either the “Desert Southwest”, or more commonly, “Southwest”.

      2. I actually like the term “Pacific Southwest” to differentiate from
        “Desert Southwest”. Because it hasn’t be used, doesn’t make it invalid. 😀

      1. Ditto but agree with SAK’s suggestions. I’ve often been confused as to what area is under the overall name.

  11. I had to fix a couple comments made from my phone earlier. For some reason it was not letting me go over a couple lines without the post button vanishing. Even a reboot did nothing. Blah! Oh well. 😉

    1. It’s a small fighter, surrounded by bullies. Should be turning and running for the open Atlantic after an initial approach toward the coast…

  13. TK can we sneak some Noreaster’s in that cold and dry your predicting for January, February, and March.
    5 years ago today Irene was impacting the region. Vermont really got hit hard from this storm.

    1. It’ll snow a few times, don’t worry.

      That outlook is so general I probably shouldn’t bother posting it. But I like to toss the really far ahead general ideas out there and then keep track of it. Public long range prognostication is OK in my opinion so long as your audience has full understanding of what the message is here and not to set anything in stone. I also find that I like the challenge of having those calls out in the open, vulnerable to failure as much as success. It keeps one humble.

  14. The Hurricane Hunters are going out to fly a low-level mission into 99L this afternoon. I have my doubts that they’ll find anything. Having said that, I want to talk about the models in regards to 99L for a moment.

    We have now been watching this system for 9 days. That’s a long time for a system that hasn’t developed at all. We’ve seen a lot of different model solutions which has led at times, to ridiculous amounts of hype. The one model that has been fairly consistent for much of the time has been the GFS. It weas really the only one that has been insisting on little to no development, which has been the case. When you are looking at the models, the one thing you should always look for is consistency. Sure, a model can be consistent and still be wrong (like the HWRF), but usually, when it locks onto a solution and doesn’t change much, that’s a clue that its onto something. The ECMWF has flip-flopped several times with this storm, first it wasn’t doing anything with it, then it was blowing it up, then it was ignoring it again. now its blowing it up again. Keep this in mind when you look at the next several runs of the models. Don’t just look at what they are showing now. Go back and look at the last few runs, even the last few days worth of runs and see how much things have changed or not.

    1. Trends are KEY. Agree with all the points made here, not like that would surprise you. 😛

        1. A couple years ago, I went to the slot machines before a concert, won enough money to buy 2 t-shirts, quit while I was ahead, saw the show, and left with 2 great shirts for about $1 each. 😉

          1. Picture the Roulette When and I has come up
            Red 5 times in a row. Hmm let’s bet a bunch
            of Red. WHAM, it lands on black.

            Likewise, at a blackjack table. You’ve won 5 hands in a row and the dealer broke 3 times. Hmmm
            Bot huge! What happens? DEALER 21!!!

            Trends SUCK in gambling How do you think
            the casinos stay in business? 😀

  15. Look like we’re headed down to Lakeville shortly to make up for the time we
    had to cancel.

    I’m thinking about 85-87 down there. Does that sound about right?

    Thanks

  16. 77 at at the airport with East wind at 14 mph.

    I had to go down to Quincy earlier and was on Quincy Shore Drive. Car was reading
    only 76 with a STIFF wind blowing in from the water.

    Feels cooler out there today.

    1. Though the weather is fabulous, at the beaches there is quite the easterly breeze today. I see this quite evidently in the rippling of the umbrellas on the Hampton Beach web cam.

      1. I can attest to the coolness at the water’s edge. It even feels cooler
        here at the house, even though it is close to 85 here.

        😀

  17. Anyone notice what the 12Z GFS is doing with Invest99-L?
    DYI it takes it weakly across Florida and intensifies some over the Atlantic
    and sits for 2 days over the outer banks and slowly moves up to the VA coast.
    Now it is not intense mind you. the point is it is a tropical system and I am watching
    to see IF it could get up here and at least part of it to give us some RAIN!

    1. I can say this about the HWRF…
      It doesn’t develop invest99-L until the 48 hour mark and then it under goes
      rapid development.

  20. AccuWeather’s extended forecast today goes out to November 25, so that now includes Thanksgiving, and WATCH OUT because they have morning icing conditions followed by rain for Thanksgiving Day! 😉

        1. Well. I am heavy enough and gray enough. Just need
          to grow a bear, which would come out gray as well. 😀

    2. They were calling for that, a percentage increase, to happen once it got to the southeastern Gulf, so nothing has really changed.

      1. The 3 and 5 day percentages now are exactly the same as they were 4 days ago.

        ABNT20 KNHC 241150
        TWOAT

        TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
        NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
        800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

        For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

        The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
        Storm Gaston, located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
        Islands.

        Satellite images, surface observations, and radar data indicate
        that a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
        is located over the northern Leeward Islands. Showers and
        thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight and are
        showing signs of organization, but the system still appears to lack
        a well-defined circulation. Although environmental conditions are
        currently only marginally conducive for additional development, this
        system could become a tropical depression at any time during the
        next few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph
        across the northern Leeward Islands, near or over Puerto Rico,
        Hispaniola, and the Bahamas. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
        aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance late this
        morning. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and
        mudslides are expected to occur over portions of the Leeward
        Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern and central
        Bahamas. Please consult products issued by your local
        meteorological offices for further details. Interests in the
        northwestern Bahamas and Florida should also monitor the progress of
        this system.
        * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
        * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

  25. I find it fascinating and at the same time sad that we will have to wait another 9 months for this drought to end. At some point, double-digit deficits will likely be reached.

    1. I believe that if you go back to May or June of 2015 that we have a double digit deficit. I’m pretty sure someone posted that within the last month or so.

      1. Just checked the monthlies at the NWS site and according to my calc it looks like we are -15.63 inches from normal starting in Jan 2015.

          1. With the aquifers depleting …..related to factors other than drought….replacing the lack may well increase their depletion also.

            1. And the ground water level doesn’t reset each Jan 1st, so we are in quite a bit more of a deficit.

  26. 76 with a fresh ocean breeze out of the east at 21 MPH at Logan as of 3PM.

    The wind would have made each coast beaching a bit of a challenge today from blowing sand and difficulty setting umbrellas. Also with the dew point just under 60, even with the warm water you’d feel a chill upon getting out due to fairly rapid evaporative cooling.

    1. Except for the sand blowing around I love a day like this at the beach…still a lot of sun…no sweating…my kind of day.

  27. The saga of 99L (under that name) is over. We have TD 9! An active day for the tropics with two TD’s declared and Gaston now a major hurricane.

  29. Has anyone seen an explosion of flies in your yard? They are all over my pool and deck and can’t seem to get rid of them. I think they might be cluster flies, but not sure..

    1. Had cluster flies here (in and out) about 3-4 weeks ago. Still have some horse flies and deer flies (Man I thinki I hate those more than anything else in the insect kingdom)

    2. I chased one around house for two days last week. Seriously, it was possessed. And now I have another in the house.

  30. Disregard the 18z GFS beyond 240 hours.
    It’s going to mislead people and it’s better left alone.

      1. Same. I know old school model watchers like to go to 240 which was once the “outer limit” before they expanded into the 300+ territory.

  31. Looking ahead to Christmas, will there be a shortage of trees due to the drought?

    One has to wonder if there will be a tree OVER the presents come Christmas morning. 😉

    1. A lot of trees are brought in from elsewhere.

      Trees for this year were planted a while ago and probably did fine. A couple years down the line there may be more of an impact locally.

    2. Agree with TK re shortage. In past years there has been a problem with trees when they are cut and then there is a marked warmup. They are dormant and then want to wake up and at that point are confused enough to drop needles prematurely in house.

  32. Looks like no rain tonight. Storms already disappearing in NY state. Will have to hope TD 8 enhances anything we get from the front Weds/Thurs. Better shot of that happening near the Cape and SE MA.

      1. TD 8 will turn into a TS but never come close enough for rain, but it will be close enough to pretty much kill rain chances from the cold front on Wednesday.

  36. Had a wonderful afternoon and evening on the Lake in Lakeville.
    Great dinner and then some fishing out in the boat.

    Didn’t get any bass, but caught 3 of the largest perch I have ever seen in my life.
    2 Yellow perch, 12 & 14 inches and 1 White 14 inches. They were monsters.
    Also caught 3 smaller ones.

    The Mrs. Caught 1 small fish and lost a big one that actually broke the line.
    She had it for quite a while and it was ripping line off the reel. It finally turned
    forcefully and snapped the line. Line was 6 or 8 lb test. Likey to have been a really decent small mouth bass.

    Our Nephew who took us out in the Boat had a nice small mouth that jumped
    3 feet out of the water and spit the hook.

    Just a great day. The weather down there was perfect. There was an AccuRite
    weather station next door. Tops was 83.

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