Tuesday Forecast

149 Comments

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 30-SEPTEMBER 3)…
Slowing things down a little but the overall idea is the same. High pressure dominates today. Cold front approaches Wednesday but takes its time getting through the region during Thursday, which will be a bit more cloud-filled, though the wet weather chance will still be limited. Cooler and dry air mass arrives Friday into the start of the Labor Day Weekend.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-85, coolest at the coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes developing.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-68. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms late. Highs 77-88, coolest Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 58-66. Highs 73-80.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Lows 52-60. Highs 73-80.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Lows 48-56. Highs 75-82.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)…
Remainder of Labor Day Weekend September 4-5 looks dry with a warm-up. Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible September 6 with a cold front then fair and drier September 7-8.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)…
Dry pattern dominates. Temperatures above normal.

149 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK. Chris on 7 said now 20 days at 90. I also believe he said hottest August on record beating 1988. That will need confirmation as I was half asleep.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Seems like Eric is looking at the GFS as he said 09L had a chance to get up
    here and give us some rain most likely as a Tropical depression. Fat chance of that. 😀

      1. He wasn’t going with the CMC, was he? The 0Z GFS hints at
        coming up here and does throw some rain, but he would not have had access to either at the 11PM broadcast. But he did say it.

          1. I fully don’t expect it to.
            See it go exit stage right on the Euro is enough
            for me. Not to mention BOTH hurricane models
            do that same. 😀

    1. Wishing you a happy and successful year. Thank you for helping to shape our kids minds and futures.

      We sure have some exceptional folks on here who are working with our kids.

  5. Thank you TK! Beautiful morning. I did all I could not to drive right to Plymouth beach instead of my office.

  8. When it comes to record highs, I have noticed that the year 1948 has come up a few times in Boston climo stats. That must have been a fairly hot summer as well?

    1. Yes, I remember it well. … Not really. 16 years before my birth. But I can pretend I recall that long, hot summer. Curley was mayor. The bikini had just been introduced, to the shock and horror of Puritanical Boston. That was also the year the Indians and Red Sox played a tie-breaker to determine the AL pennant.

      1. I almost could remember it – if I had memory from time just prior my arrival 🙂

        You of course prompted me to look up bikini’s because I didn’t think they were popular until I had just about reached double digits.

        Seems they were first introduced in France in 1946. Leave it to those French eh? God bless my FIL, he wore a European bathing suit into his 70s….but I digress and just brought up a visual I’d rather forget.

        However, I found this “one of the earliest known visual documentations of a bikini, from the Ancient Roman Villa Romana del Casale”

        And of course a very “daring” song from 1960 which is what I recall.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICkWjdQuK7Q

        1. History of the bikini is interesting. Ironically, its history has been dredged up in light of the birkini controversy. (In full disclosure, I have no issue with either the bikini or birkini – to each her own).

          In Europe, the bikini didn’t really take off until the late 1950s, and even then it was considered taboo by most. In Italy, fines were levied on scantily dressed (ie, bikini-wearing) women. The mores quickly changed around 1960 – the song you reference is indeed from that year – and the bikini became a hit, particularly in France, but increasingly across most of Europe and even the U.S.

          My guess is that no-one wore a bikini to Revere Beach in 1948. I do think well-to-do Bostonians purchased bikinis on their trips to Europe in the late 40s and wore them around the house, in secret (almost like lingerie), or perhaps even on private beaches.

          1. You mean like the purple hat society, they had a tiny bikini society back in the day. Who’d a thunk 😉

            Good information, Joshua. And as I referenced, skimpy suits in Europe were not limited to women.

            1. Yes, as you corrected stated, skimpy suits in Europe were not limited to women. I remember back in the early and mid 70s on Nauset beach in Orleans hearing my mother say – “that man there must be from France or someplace in Europe wearing a thing like that.”

              1. hehe – I’m afraid I agree with your mom. And I think that may make me sexist. Or perhaps old fashioned. Is there a difference 😉

  9. I don’t think we can (yet) rule out the possibility of TD 9 affecting New England or the mid-Atlantic. It’s a less likely outcome, but the general trend has been more support for that solution. Today’s 12z GFS and UKMET both support the potential.

  10. Thank you, TK.

    The projected onshore flow (easterly and northeasterly wind) later this week and possibly through the weekend – is this because of Maritime high pressure, or ocean lows to our south and east?

  11. I do not like the look of the 12z models so far. Not at all. I have plans on Sunday to go to Kittery, Old Orchard Beach, and Portland.

        2. I would think that cold front would push any storm that does try to form and go up the coast out to sea.

          2. Tropical systems sometimes tend to slow the front or even bend it back slightly. I think that we shouldn’t discount this solution yet as it is still 5 days out. We always usually have a wrench in the plans when it will be a completely nice holiday weekend!

            1. There is also a weakness in the high pressure ridge on those models that is allowing it to come more north. Everything will need to work out right and the system has already been slower to begin with all along.

          3. That cold front will be long gone by the weekend. The GFS scenario is the one to watch out for. The high slides off into Atlantic Canada, which allows the storm to ride up the coast on the backside of the high. It has a lot of support from the GFS Ensemble.

            Not buying it just yet, but I’m not discounting it either. Let’s call it a gut feeling (channeling my inner Leroy Jethro Gibbs).

  12. Running the loop out to 144 hours on 12z EURO TD 9 looks to be going out to sea then at hour 144 starts to take a turn back to the west but still over water then at 168 looks to be near 40N 70W.

  13. The nice and simple forecast of dry and warm right through the holiday weekend doesn’t look so nice or simple any more.

    I know it’s just one run, and I’m not overreacting to it, but when the majority of the models make a shift like this and the Ensembles do too, I’ve got to take notice of that and factor it in.

  14. What up with the Euro. It has TD9 take a LEFT HAND 90 degree turn.
    I a few moments, I am going to put together a GIF loop of the EURO with precipitation.
    😀

  17. Many of the models have it going up the east coast to about the outer banks. Then its all over the place.

  18. SAK running the loop on EURO I am noticing high pressure to the east of whatever this will be up here which looks to be the reason were seeing a turn back to the west as that high is acting as a block. Please correct me if I am wrong.

    1. That’s exactly right. If the high slides too far to the east, it will block the out-to-sea- scenario and channel it right up the coast.

      1. This is excellent discussion and makes it clear to those without the knowledge you have. Thank you both.

  19. I have lost track of numbers. I believe that TD9 is the old 99L that was not going to get here. And now maybe. But would it be as a TD or could it gain strength over the Atlantic (which it appears in these spaghetti charts to travel for a bit) and become a minor hurricane. And I truly do understand that this is all conjecture but just curious.

    Also, it seems it would not have a direct impact…or not showing it yet.

    1. If it gets up here, at the worst it would be a Tropical depression, but more likely
      an extra tropical low. Either way, not a big deal, except Perhaps we finally
      get some much needed rain.

      1. Sorry, I cannot agree with this statement. if it comes up here, it could very well be a strong tropical storm, especially if the GFS scenario is right.

        1. Whoa – I think our horse went off course. Very interesting and thank you SAK and Dave. So still a watcher.

        2. That’s OK, it’s just my opinion.

          I’d be surprised if it were a strong tropical storm, honestly.
          Not impossible, but I’d be surprised.

          Time will tell.

  20. TD 9 is 99L. The NHC has this as a tropical storm with its current track once it gets past Florida.

  21. Another tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    We will have to watch Tropical Depression 9 very closely this weekend. Some local impact is possible.
    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan?lang=en

    I posted link to twitter page and with that tweet I posted you could see all the different computer model runs which makes me hungry looking at since its looks like spaghetti.

  22. Madeline is a hurricane not to sneeze at and its not going to pass too far south of the big island of Hawaii.

  23. Tropical depression 9 or whatever form it’s in is going to probably provide some surf during Labor Day weekend, which may be a safety issue given how many people will head to the coastline for one more blast of summer.

  24. SAK, I’m with you on this one – gut feeling. We’ve `lucked’ out all summer with basically all systems sliding beneath us or (storms) to our north. Hence, ample sunshine every weekend except perhaps that outlier of the 9th and 10th of July. But, from what I am seeing a different scenario may be setting up this weekend with the Maritime high causing the retrograde. Could be in for some much-needed rain. Not drought-busting, but these kinds of systems aren’t of the quarter-inch kind.

    1. By the time what’s left of it gets here, who knows.

      Euro calling for 1/2 to 3/4 inch generally for all of Eastern MA.

      Not a big deal in any way shape or form, UNLESS we can get things to change
      between now and then. 😀

      1. I’m afraid in this case I like snark-free. Snark is great for fun but I can follow the snark free better

          1. Only for understanding. Mostly I like snark…although I don’t think I’ve ever been known to be snarky 😈

  28. TD 9 is the classic case of a “decoupled” tropical cyclone. Always has been. There’s a surface circulation and a circulation in the middle levels, but the two are not aligned vertically. In fact, there’s a significant spread between them. That’s largely why, despite upper level conditions becoming more favorable, it hasn’t strengthened.

  29. I seem to recall Hurricane Felix wandered for quite a while and made it interesting to predict back in 1996(?). I could be confusing that with Danny which was in the same time period. I just remember being at Humarock for both and thinking of Felix as unpredictable as its namesake.

          1. And we thought all we had were bikinis around 1960. This is the precursor to the NSA surveillance drones

  30. Couple good tweets from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Speed of landfall of TD9 likely plays big role in future track. Later FL landfall = farther west track

    Slower landfall in FL increases odds of blocking ridge building over Canadian Maritimes closing “escape hatch” and a stall off Mid Atlantic

    1. Saw that last night on the news. Pretty cool. I thought these guys were fresh
      water?? Guess not. I guess they are switch hitters.

      1. winter they are in Blackish water (mangroves to avoid storms, predators and strong current for mating and giving birth.

    2. It is a very rare to see them as far north as Virginia, but Nantucket does have Sea grass beds and some of the water is very warm around Nantucket. Usually an animal gets disoriented, just like tropical fish traveling the gulf stream

  37. Looks like some potentially interesting weather coming up. It would be nice to get the rain but not the winds. This morning almost felt like fall. Nice and cool. But back to the 90’s again or close to it tomorrow. It’s still summer – but one can tell by the sun’s angle and the shortness of daylight (especially in the morning) that fall is not that far off.

  39. I spy a potential semi-universal model “mistake” regarding something that happens in the upper air over the eastern Great Lakes and eastern Ohio Valley a few days before the entity currently known as TD 9 makes its closest pass to New England. This may be the reason many of the models are doing the interrupted track scenario.

    Watch for a correction sometime in the next few runs, unless I’m completely out to lunch and will be looking like a fool in about 5 or 6 days. 😉

    1. Looking like a fool for seeing a different scenario……I don’t think so. And point me in the direction of anyone who says differently 🙂

      1. Thanks for your faith in me. This is based on something I’ve seen in the past, but I have no idea when. I have a weird memory for model quirks that lead to bad forecasts. Is this one of them? Time will tell…

    1. It’s not the weather team’s or even the station’s fault, but that is the worst web page. It’s a CBS “company-wide” design, and it sucks. 😛

      1. U mean for 7 and 5? And you know that I know the station and managerial staff are always the ones to blame.

  42. So for anyone that has a pool, I am having a issue with keeping the pool clean the past few weeks. There is this substance. (allergy) ( Pollen) that looks yellowish in color. It sinks to the bottom of the pool. The water is actually pretty clear but at times there is a white haze. I will put it to waste and vacum the bottom, it will remain clean for about 4 days after that before it is back. Any ideas what it could be and how I can fight it. It also is in the low flow zones mainly

    1. Shock and alficide problem solved . Keep pool running till pool clears . I put in a new pump this year and you run it 24 / 7 . They say it’s the most efficient pump on the market .

    1. Not at all. 2 model runs are not enough to change a sky condition forecast 6 days away. 🙂

  44. a potential semi-universal model “mistake”

    Pretty interesting. I am now awaiting the final outcome.
    Curious to know how all the models screw it up?

  46. Eric Fisher and I are having a bit of a disagreement on Twitter. He posted that the HWRF from 5 days ago verifying right now was “not that shabby” because it has the position just about right, but the intensity was off. I argued that intensity was half the forecast, and that it wasn’t just “off”, it missed by 80 knots. That’s not exactly a small miss. To me, that makes the forecast “pretty shabby”.

  47. Posted this to my FB page 🙂

    I am so fortunate to have travelled the world and seen many amazing things, but without a doubt one of most unique and fascinating places on earth is right in my back yard. Driving up the Mt. Washington road and seeing life basically end at 5K feet is simply incredible. It makes you appreciate the raw power of nature. How many places on earth do trees and most animals not survive at that elevation. Just think the most intense and powerful storms in the world are right up that road are at a measly 6K.

    1. Nice post. It is pretty amazing. And my wife and I have climbed that mountan twice. WhaT an experience.

    2. Love love love your comment, Hadi. Big smiles here. You had a wonderful trip indeed. Did the whole family go to summit? And did you drive? Is the cog running?

      My dad and so many others…including I think Aces dad?? – skied it more times that I am sure he could count. To him it was the most beautiful place on earth. My first time there all I could think of was I could reach out and touch the hand of God. My son has hiked it several times. Joshua, I seem to recall you have also.

    3. I hiked half of it, when I was healthier, my goal is to get back in shape for this skiing season, Hoping for a good year as it stunk, but not as much as the year before as it proved to be difficult to get up at times.

  48. So, I looked at Accuweather 45 day forecast, guess what it is based on. the long range CFS model.

      1. Sak, I was wondering what they were using, then you gave me that link the other day showing the CFS model. Then I realized that so called ( morning Ice event) that the Accuweather was talking about was right there on the CFS. I then looked at it and looked generally at the model and compared. Its almost identical. 😀

  49. GFS 18z
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016083018/gfs_mslpa_us_23.png

    GEF/GFS ensembles
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016083018/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_25.png

    EURO 12z
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016083012/ecmwf_mslpa_us_7.png

    EPS
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016083012/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_8.png

    CMC
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016083012/gem_mslpa_us_28.png

    GEPS
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016083012/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_25.png

    Hurricane Models (Tidbits)
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_tracks_18z.png

    I make a map like I do during the winter months, of all the models sometime tomorrow.

  50. Matt,
    Re: your pool.
    You have algae. You need to shock your pool. My guess is you chlorinate with those pucks? Am I correct?
    Those pucks contain chlorine stabilizer called cyanuric acid (CYA). It keeps the chlorine from burning off too fast in the sun. The down side is the more cya, the less effective the chlorine ( has to do with cya to chlorine equilibrium, pesky chemistry). Once late August rolls around, the cya is up around 70-100 ppm. At that level, the amount of chlorine you need to keep the pool clear is up around 10 ppm. My guess is your chlorine is waaay below 10 ppm. You need to go get several gallons of bleach and hold the chlorine at 20-25 ppm until it clears. Then get your cya level down to below 50 ppm. Only way to do it is to drain some water and replace it.
    The stop chlorinating with pucks and use bleach. Keep the cya at 40 ppm, and the chlorine around 4-5 ppm and it will stay crystal clear all season.
    Troublefreepool.com will keep help you keep your pool clear and with grocery store stuff. Stay out of the pool store. All that stuff is a rip off. Bleach, baking soda, and borax and a little stabilizer from Wally World and your good to go.

    1. Thanks from me too. Copied for one daughter in case. Other switched to salt water this year and they love it

      1. I have a chlorine generator too. Salt water, about 3500 ppm. Generates its own chlorine. I add the CYA at a set 40 ppm. Ive had the pool 8 years and never lost it to algea once.

    2. I have shocked the pool 2 times, did nothing. I wish I could change this pool to Salt, as it is much healthier for you and you do not get the allergy problem as much. We have one of the best filters that we put in about 5 years ago.

      1. You didn’t raise the chlorine high enough and hold it there. You need to keep the chlorine at 20-25 ppm and hold it there. It does no good to add a little shock and stop.
        What kind of shock did you add? Dichlor? Cal hypo? Lithium chloride? Liquid? If it it was dichlor, you just added more cya.
        Go get at least 10 gallons of bleach, bring it to 20 ppm and hold it there. You also need a proper test kit. Those strips are junk. You can’t get an accurate chlorine level with them. You need a FAS DPD drop based kit.

        1. it was liquid. Not Dichlor. The strips are junk, thing is that i have sent samples to the local pool store and the chemistry is perfect.

  51. What’s perfect to the pool store and reality are 2 different things. Pool store testing stinks. Get your own kit. Best $75 you’ll ever spend.
    Your chlorine is too low and your cya is sky high. I guarantee it. The key to shocking s pool is bringing the chlorine up and holding it there. Can’t stress that enough.
    Troublefreepool.com. Best site on the web for pool info. Read it, live it and you’ll never have a problem again. Start with their pool school.

    1. I be looking at it, thanks BlackStone. This started while I was gone this summer, so i blame my brother 😛

  52. Uncertainty for Labor Day weekend. Could be a low – sort of like a winter scenario – southeast of Nantucket giving us some rain and maybe even a bit of wind. But, it could also head harmlessly out to sea. I do hope we get some rain tomorrow night and early Thursday morning. My guess is we might squeeze out a quarter inch or so. Nothing to write home about, but at least it’s something.

    I’m now firmly in the JP Dave camp regarding John Farrell. Another loss against a terrible team, and another one-run loss. Why is Buchholz relieving at this point? He’s given you several good starts in a row. So, the manager decides to change everything and put him in a meaningful relief situation he’s never been in. (He’s done mop up duty, but that’s really the extent of his relief stints). Of course, he fails. He’s set up to fail in that situation. Then we see Kimbrel in the 9th with the team down a run. Why? Bradley’s epic demise at the plate continues and Farrell’s only answer is to hit him 9th. I love JBJ, but clearly he’s struggling mightily at this point. Take him out of the lineup. Clear his head. Be creative. Put Betts in center, Holt in right, etc … Also, Farrell doesn’t have good instincts regarding a player’s ability. Sandy Leon is a sub-par hitter – his great start notwithstanding. He’s reverting to form, as is JBJ. Leon should NOT be up in clutch situations. Seeing him take yet another called 3rd strike to end a game is pitiful.

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