Thursday Forecast

264 Comments

7:43AM

COMMENTARY…
A new month has arrived, and meteorological summer may be over, and tourist summer may be wrapping up after this coming long weekend, and “summer vacation” may have already ended or be just about to end for students of schools and colleges, but actual summer rolls on though in its late stages. And we know late summer means hurricane season, which really should be named tropical cyclone season, because we don’t just pay attention to these things when they are hurricanes only. We eye them (no pun intended) when they are tropical storms, tropical depressions, tropical waves, tropical disturbances, and “Invests”. We’re saturated by news of every cluster of cumulus in the tropics, where it might go, what it might do, who it might hit. For all of the overkill, it remains important to know, but let’s not kid ourselves. It’s not supposed to be so dramatic from a news standpoint. The weather can supply its own drama if you’re in the right place to see it. And this brings us to the long lasting saga of the system that was originally known as Invest 99L, then eventually Tropical Depression 9, and now Tropical Storm Hermine, which as of the writing of this blog entry, sits in the Gulf of Mexico, getting ready to make a run at the Florida Panhandle. As always I prefer my standard approach: Present the players and try to forecast their movement and impact. I am not going to pretend to know something that I don’t. So the forecast that follows this commentary will be the result of that approach. Read on to see.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)…
A cold front sluggishly moves through the region today with scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, but once again the region is not about to see a widespread beneficial rain. By tonight, the dry and cooler air will arrive in force and establish itself on Friday, although a little instability leftover in the atmosphere on Friday will mean some diurnal cloudiness and possibly a few showers. And then comes the Labor Day Weekend, and as you well know by now, there is plenty of question as to how it will turn out here, since the tropical system stayed in the Gulf of Mexico long enough for the pattern around the eastern US to arrange itself in such a way that the system can impact a larger segment of the East Coast states than would have been the case if the system was moving a little more swiftly. What I do know is that high pressure will protect the region on Saturday, though some cloudiness may be on the increase. What I also know is that if the system is going to impact the region, Sunday-Monday seem like the most likely days. What I do not know is the extent of the possible impact. There is still enough evidence to keep the near-miss scenario in play, with the system coming to a halt just to the south and barely getting its rain shield in before it retreats back to the south. But other possibilities exist too, as the system will be interacting with high pressure on 3 sides and upper level low pressure nearby. For now, I’m going to play the storm-to-the-south but close enough for some minor to moderate impact especially in terms of high surf and the possibility of some rain and gusty wind, especially in southern areas. The forecast will be worded simply, but know there will be many updates to come.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 73-81, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind light N.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs 72-79. Wind N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-57, coolest interior valleys, mildest urban areas. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Sunshine filtered at times by high clouds. Highs 72-82, coolest coast. Wind light variable becoming E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Thickening clouds. Risk of rain southern areas. Lows 58-65. Highs 68-75.
MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain southern areas. Lows 58-65. Highs 68-75.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)…
Watch the early period for a shower risk from both a tropical system from the south and a front from the west, then a drying trend with temperatures mostly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)…
Mostly dry weather. Temperatures above normal.

264 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK. Our last hurrah run to the Vineyard is looking like it’s going to betaken away by Hermine. Even if conditions aren’t bad, it’s not going to be the summery weekend we’d imagined.

      1. My very favorite time of year at the coast. May have a bit to do with the fact that I am not a sun sitter but prefer to watch and enjoy the changes the ocean provides us, I love the cool air as I walk along the beach and I am an introvert by nature so crowds make me a bit antsy 🙂

  4. Thank you, TK. More clouds in this forecast since May. I’m perfectly fine with that. We’ve been blessed with abundant sunshine this summer. I’m hoping we don’t get much more heat and humidity.

  5. Thanks TK !

    Very soupy out. We’ve had a few rain showers on the northern fringe of the precip.

    We’ll be down in Myles Standish this weekend.

    I’m not telling my wife, but I’ll bet on Sunday, they might close it down if a tropical storm advisory goes up for the south coast. You know how an advisory gets posted for part of a county but then once any part of a county has a watch or warning, the whole county gets put under the watch/warning even if the weather won’t affect that part of the county as much …….

    1. I’m also betting even if they do not close it you might cut your trip short and that is a shame. SIL is scheduled to take boys to a wedding Sunday night on the cape while daughter stays home with baby. A wedding is something that is very difficult to have a plan b in place. We shall see how it plays out.

      1. I’ll be going nuts without Internet/wifi 🙂

        That’s alright, have to rely on good old fashioned outdoor observations and what they are telling me.

    1. HA!

      We had rain and a thunderstorm over night. The storm was enough to wake everyone up with two claps and a shaking house. The rain didn’t even trip my rain gauge.

  7. And as I scroll down and read, last but never least.

    Thank you, TK. I saw that you were awake in the wee hours of the morning also!

      1. NHC website just google national hurricane center

        on top ……. Data and tools …. should get a drop down box

        select aircraft reconnaissance

        look under atlantic, Caribbean and gulf of mexico reconnaissance

        click vortex data message

  11. Good morning and thank you TK. Awesome write-up today not that it isn’t always, but especially good today. 😀

    I’m still in Camp FIIK.

    Anxiously awaiting the 12Z runs for the latest.

  12. If we miss the rain from Hermine it will be a huge disappointment and blow to an already serious drought situation. My gut says we don’t see a drop of rain from it. But, I am hopeful the pattern stays conducive for something tropical to get up here before the season is over.

  13. Thanks TK.
    Ryan Hanrahan’s tweet on GEFS ensembles
    Good consensus on the GFS ensembles – stall off Mid Atlantic then drift north? Fringe impacts here.
    meteorologist Ed Vallee tweet on EURO EPS
    Euro EPS confident in #Hermine NW FL landfall, but track thereafter uncertain-could be a Labor Day ruiner NJ–>MA.

  14. NHC has Hermine stalling out about 300 miles due east of the Delmarva by overnight Tuesday, WELL south of SNE, too far south to provide any impacts other than some clouds and high surf. Where it goes after that we shall see

    1. Frankly, I don’t trust their forecast. They certainly could be 100% correct, but
      imho, there is still too much uncertainty to definitively make that statement.

      Either way, this is going to be a close call.

      Would it surprise me if we didn’t get a drop? Not in the slightest.
      On the other hand, it wouldn’t surprise me if we got an inch+ of rain either.

      Still too early to call.

      At least we have something to watch one way or the other.

      Latest Satellite loop:

      Does NOT look impressive to me.

      http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/rbtop_lalo-animated.gif

      Water vapor loop

      http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

  17. Here is some twitter chatter between meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan and John Homenuk
    John Big concern for me is not even the type of system. Any system of that breadth near our shores is going to cause issues.
    Ryan k Especially the Jersey Shore – I’m a bit skeptical we bring gale force winds up this far but we’ll see.
    John Agreed on all parts. GFS very agressive with onshore winds. Interested to see 12z runs.
    Ryan I still think a southern solution is most likely – basically just using a climo argument for that.
    John Euro Ens have just been mirroring the OP for the past year now so they don’t offer as much help.
    Ryan So even though it’s semantics in terms of labeling it will actually have big impacts in terms of wx – tight core vs broad, etc
    Ryan I could see it going ET and then back to tropical off the Mid Atlantic though. That will impact how tight core is.

  19. If I may digress a tad.

    Farrell HAS to go. He almost cost the Sox yet another game yesterday!
    The man is a moronic IDIOT! His in game management skills are ZILCH!
    I totally question Upper management when they continue to support this BOZO!

    Ok, done for today and the Sox are not playing today, so nothing until at least
    after tomorrow’s game.

    Tonight we have the PATS! Let’s see how that goes.

    1. Upper winds at that time look to propel the system out to sea well South of us, HOWEVER, the winds appear to be digging and sharpening up which “may” allow it to get up here.

    2. Instant weather maps had too much debris on the chart. In looking at tropical tid-bits, it doesn’t actually make the coast until later Saturday afternoon or early Saturday evening, still in the vicinity of the Outer Banks of NC. We shall see.

    1. The locals are doing well just straight shooting it. The national media and Internet “news breakers”…not so well.

      1. I agree re locals. They are indeed being straight forward and handling it really well. And I think at this point it needs to be addressed. Always wise when there is doubt (especially by Friday) to ere on the side of caution. Seen too many messes getting off the cape to believe otherwise. But just my opinion.

    1. The NAM has it get pretty intense again just NE of the Outer Banks and then
      it stalls and starts a SW loop, NEVER getting up here during this run.

  24. So far anyway, NOT enough rain to trip the rain gauge which needs 0.01 inch
    to do so.

    btw, I have not heard anything today about Boston breaking the record for
    DRIEST Summer on Record?????

    1. It was by a small margine and a product of a well advertised dry pattern so it’s not a huge story. 😉

      1. I think it is. I still don’t understand why we haven’t heard anything about it. I understand why it may not be a huge story here. 😀

    1. Agreed and the north semi circle has cirrus fanning out and curving back to the north and northwest.

      Of course, future strength is anyone’s guess, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this strengthens to a decent cat 1 within the next 6 to 12 hrs

  27. 0.12 rain here. I’d love to give you total since I installed rain gauge on May 2 but grandson decided to push all the buttons and erased everything 🙂 In fairness, he was playing weatherman.

    And thank you to everyone for the really great discussion both today and yesterday. To me this is the fascination with weather that makes me love it.

    1. DAMN!!! That facuckta WZ website. It wouldn’t load the story or at least
      not within my patience limit!

      That website Blows!!!

      BUT, thank you for posting. That is what I wanted to see. 😀

      1. They are both lame record breaks. Especially the rainfall one. Regional differences are vast. How close was Nantucket to their all time driest June-August? I bet nowhere near. During the time of year that over 90% of your rainfall is dependent on convection, this type of record for any one location is nearly irrelevant.

        2. C’mon, you’re being Debbie Downer.

          How long has boston been keeping records?
          Since like 1876 or something like that.

          And this is the DRIEST Jun,JUL and AUG in all of that
          time?

          Irrelevant? I think not.

          It is very meaningful in my mind.

          2. As you know, I agree. I think the fact that each year since 2000 is hotter than the last and each continues to set a record is also meaningful. And telling. That is 16 years. And yes, I know we have had warmups before. What we have not had is our destruction of the earth. Add to that the drop in aquifers and I think at some point someone needs to take notice.

    2. If we didn’t change the pattern thanks to a western Pacific tropical cyclone at mid August 1988 then August 1988 would have set a record probably never surpassed.

      1. As I said earlier in response to your comment saying the same, 1988 is a summer that sticks in my memory as extremely hot. I didn’t have AC then so I suspect it is unfair for me to compare to this year but it sure did seem more difficult to cope with compared to this summer. And a good portion of this summer’s heat I didn’t have AC but did have ocean so again….I’m not a good judge in this case.

  30. Interesting. The 12Z GFS brings the rainshield up into ALL of SNE before doing some
    sort of Loop. Not how far enough for final outcome.

      1. GFS impact would be like a windy N’oreaster with about
        1-2 inches of rain across Eastern and Southern sections of SNE.

        Waiting on the Euro to say “Not so fast GFS”. 😀

  31. Just waking up and haven’t looked at anything yet (got home really late after a disastrous end to my shift), but just to echo what TK said, in the forecasts I sent out to our clients last night, in the discussion that accompanies it, I had the following:

    “A cold front crosses the region today producing some showers through early afternoon, then high pressure builds in with drier conditions for Friday and Saturday. After that, the forecast will be determined by the track of Tropical Storm Hermine. Current indications are that the storm should move off the Mid-Atlantic coast, then it may stall offshore. How far north it gets and where it stalls will have a large impact on our forecast. Right now, it looks like it will be a bit too far offshore, with gusty winds, rough surf and showers confined to coastal areas, but we’ll need to keep an eye on the storms progress to see exactly what impacts it will have on our region.”

      1. My thought is always that records are fine, as long as people realize that is is only valid for that one spot. Just because it was the driest summer on record at Logan Airport does not make it true for all of southern New England, or even all of Boston for that matter.

        Records for Boston, especially for temperatures, should always be taken with a grain of salt. Charlie Orloff wrote a small book for the Blue Hill Observatory about the history of weather records in Boston. It goes into the details about where the obs have been taken from over the years and how that impacted the actual observations. Some of the details might surprise people.

        If anyone is interested, it’s well-worth the $6 that it costs, and by buying it, you’d be helping to support the Blue Hill Observatory. http://bluehill.org/observatory/product/the-many-paths-of-bostons-long-term-weather-record/

        1. I agree that it is a small spot for rain. I also agree that Logan is a nasty barometer (if you will) for the state as a whole. I wonder what Blue Hills, for instance, has for records. The warmest year records, however, are worldwide so I believe give a far better picture.

  33. Big problem with GFS …..

    At hr 6 on the 12z run or 1pm, it projects the pressure to be 1002 mb. The most recent pressure by the recon plane is 991 mb. So ……….

  34. Tom I saw a comment on twitter about what you just said that the pressure is lower than where the initialization of the run starts.

  35. Two folks I am aware of have had their wells go dry. Both in this area. And it seems to me we have had a bit more rain down this way.

    Speaking of which it is raining again here.

  37. May I trouble any one of you for a forecast for Kingston area from 5-7 this evening? Light rain, heavy rain, no rain, storms?? Trying to figure out what to do about football practice. Obviously we like to make any decisions early enough for folks to plan if we require the parents to remain at the field during the duration of the practice.

    1. He is waiting until Saturday but looking as SIL may not head to wedding on cape. If people even just decide to head home Sunday because of rain Monday he could be stuck in nasty traffic with the boys.

  39. There’s that signal again on the 12z GFS ……

    Ignoring the specific projected pressures, the idea that this entity is going to strengthen somewhere during its stall or loop south of Long Island.

    This gives me some concern. Maybe not for New England but possible the jersey coastline or Long Island or NYC

  40. Tom to your point here is tweet from meteorologist Rich Hoffman
    very warm water south of LI – when storm hits ocean waters Saturday could intensify.

  41. Thanks JRW and if I am calculating that right there are parts of SNE that will tropical storm force wind gusts potentially at that time I posted in link above.

  42. Not something I’m overly confident in, but I think Hermine, or it’s post-tropical form, will come close enough to have impacts on at least far southern New England. Main reason being, it looks like it’ll end up a little stronger than anticipated, and may be better able to run through the block setting up. The 12z GFS generally shows this. With a big high to the north and this low to south though, there will at least be some pretty strong gradient winds setting up.

  43. I concur with TK and SAK that records are not as relevant as some in the media make them out to be. I appreciate TK’s no nonsense approach to our weather. And, I like reading SAK’s point of view, too. Nevertheless, I disagree that records, such as the one we just `achieved,’ are not that important. The drought in parts of SNE has had significant impact, just as last year’s snow record had significant impact. While sensationalizing events is silly and counterproductive, underestimating certain events’ real impact on human lives, crops, vegetation, and animals is not a good idea either.

    1. The problem is, that record that we just achieved is literally valid for Logan Airport. Blue Hill has had 1″ more than Logan over that same time frame. Both Providence and Worcester have had 3-4″ more than Logan over that time. But the media doesn’t tell you that. They tell you it was the driest summer on record, when the reality is that for 90% of the viewing area, it wasn’t. That doesn’t mean we’re downplaying it – it’s been a very dry summer, but for most of us, it was very clearly NOT the “driest summer on record”.

      1. June -August ranks:

        Boston – 1st driest
        Concord, NH – 2nd driest
        Blue Hill – 3rd driest
        Worcester – 18th driest
        Hartford – 28th driest
        Providence – 31st driest

        2. For completeness, summer temperature ranks:

          Blue Hill – 1st warmest
          Concord – 1st warmest
          Providence – 2nd warmest
          Hartford – 2nd warmest
          Boston – 4th warmest
          Worcester – 5th warmest

    2. Well stated, Joshua. To me, we also need to couple the “drought” conditions with the depleting acquifers (one of which is along the east coast of the US) and the fact that a good deal of our water is polluted in one form or another.

      Question. Does more water evaporate in hot or cold weather?

  44. Based on what I’ve seen, here are my preliminary thoughts:

    Big picture – storm moves off the Carolina/Mid-Atlantic coast and stalls east of the Delmarva Peninsula and sits there for a day or two at least. For the most part, most of the models agree on this.

    Details – Here’s the big problem. Where does it stall? How long does it stall? Which way does it drift once it does stall? How strong will it be? How large will the wind field be? How large will the precipitation field be? These are all details that have a HUGE impact on the forecast, and we just won’t be able to work them out with any confidence for at least another 24-48 hours.

    My advice – keep your Labor Day Weekend plans in place for now, but the farther south you are (or your plans are), be ready with a backup plan.

  45. SAK, Your points are valid. I’ve joked at times about there being a shield around Boston stopping all storms from entering. I’ve certainly noticed that other locales – while dry – are not as dry as Boston. And so, while Boston may be the hub of the universe, it should not be the exclusive focus of mets who report on the drought.

    1. Just look at the drought monitor. The areas in the severe drought are the ones that probably rank in the top 3 of driest summers on record. Within say 30-40 miles of Boston in all directions. Areal coverage not so impressive, but the population that affects is huge.

  47. So far and I know this isn’t written in stone, How does it look for Charleston? And Atlanta?

    Friends in Charleston and sister in law in Atlanta.

    Thank you.

    1. The only thing I will agree on is that the record was for Logan and most
      likely ONLY Logan, but a record for that location it was.

      Clearly NOT the driest Summer all over SNE.

      To me records in weather are just as valid as records in Sports. 😀

  51. During the winter of 2014, places west of Worcester, north of Concord NH, and NYC south didn’t even crack the top 20 in most snowfall. I’d say that was fairly local. And many of those historic storms were even more localized to Boston and the south shore.

      1. Yup. Even places are local as Wachusett didn’t get in on the historic snow. They were always on the western edge.

  53. Not being a Debbie Downer on the records thing. The point is, while it is significant for one anomalous place, it’s not necessarily representative of the region.

    1. Agree with that 100%.

      But they are still relevant. And I will disagree with that one until the day I die. 😀

    1. Even though we have gone over most of it, it is nice to see all put together.

      That is a great write up. It is exactly what I think people need to hear. Facts to begin then followed by the questions. But in that you also gave answers the public needs to hear (e.g.,locations that may or may not be affected and what you might see in them).

      I asked above what Atlanta and Charleston might see. I’m curious about Charleston as it is a place near and dear but know they are well versed in handling these systems. Atlanta is a bit more of a worry as my sister in law is there and she is not always as sure about what to do.

      1. I take that back again. Looking at different sites and some show the init and some the first panel is 6 hours. My BAD.

        996 it is. Sorry

  59. Stall on 12z EURO east of Del Marva. 12z GFS got as far as southern NJ 12z CMC got to south of Long Island.

  62. This tweet from Hurricane Tracker App
    12Z EURO once again forecasting possible impacts for the mid-Atlantic – New England. Details unknown at this point.

  63. Just a brief note – line of showers/heavy showers/thunder? moving southeast. I don’t know if line will affect east of Worcester. Sky is kind of weird – bright but cloudy. Raining lightly off and on in Sudbury.

    1. I was going to make some sort of wise-crack about this.

      Let me just leave it as I’d be SHOCKED if it is intact when it gets to Boston.
      I sincerely hope it is alive and well when it gets here. 😀

      1. Just looked at radar – make all the wise-cracks you want. I doubt we will get any more than a drop of rain out of this. I think it stays west of here, but could be wrong. Frankly, with all this talk about Hermine – I sincerely hope we get SOME beneficial rain. It would be awful if we got Nothing. I don’t want destructive winds or bad flooding – just some appreciable rain to make even a dent in this drought.

  65. Euro makes 2 attempts (so Far) at getting up here. On attempt #2 it throws the rain
    shield up here during the day on Monday. .75 to almost 2 inches across the area, most
    East and South.

    Let’s see if it makes attempt #3. 😀

    1. At 144 hours, after moving back South over warmer waters, it drops
      to 983 mb with wind gusts over 80 mph. Almost if not a hurricane at this
      point.

    1. first batch winding down, however, there is another line of showers. Just don’t know IF they hold together on the trip East and South.

  69. @Sue there’s a chance of showers this evening, but it shouldn’t cancel practice. Main band of rain is already leaving the area.

    1. Thanks bostbliz! It is always a struggle whether we declare a Red Flag day which means parents must stay at the field in case we get storms or heavy rain. If it is only showers then I think we can let our parents off the hook. 🙂

  71. JRW told me earlier with those wind knots to multiply by 1.15 with what is being shown and you will get the wind gusts.

    1. To be precise: 1 Knot = 1.15077945 mph

      And those maps you posted were for the wind field at 850mb or about
      5,000 feet. Those were NOT surface winds. 😀

  74. re: Additional showers this afternoon.

    Just looked very closely with my radarscope app.

    That line is already DIMINISHING. So what the bleep else is new.

    I’m with Joshua, Boston probably doesn’t see a drop from it OR if so, NOT enough
    to trip the rain gauge. 😀 😀 😀

    1. Don’t forget that it’s not just the existing showers. The boundary that is igniting them is going to take a few hours to move through eastern MA. Boston is not out of the woods yet.

      1. I’m watching and hoping. 😀 😀 😀

        What you say is understood. Didn’t always equate to rain here this Summer. Believe, me I hope we get some, I really do.

        Pretty nice cell up by Lowell.

        PS Love RadarScope. Thanks for turning me onto that app.
        I’m using that and not any radars on my desktop computer. 😀

  75. Hermine is strengthening rapidly now. The eye is already reduced in size since it became visible and the thunderstorms are clustering tighter around it. It wouldn’t surprise me if it made landfall as a very strong cat 1.

  76. We decided to cancel the trip on the sailboat to Martha’s Vineyard from Onset, and instead bring the boat through the canal and up to Winthrop on Saturday. We’re paying for the mooring in Onset when we have a “free” one in Winthrop. It doesn’t sound like Sunday will be terribly nice and Monday’s not going to be a day to be on the boat.

    We’ll just have to find some other ways to enjoy the long weekend. There are a couple of movies we’ve wanted to see: Jason Bourne and Star Trek Beyond. We did not have a rainy weekend yet this summer, so we shouldn’t complain (too much).

    1. I think a wise decision but doesn’t make it easier. Hope your weekend is fun!!

      And you prompted a story which I may have already shared so apologize if that is so. Way back when Mac was in high school, he and family were sailing into Anzio. The air was thick as soup so his dad took them as far as he dared. They dropped anchor for the night. In the morning, they climbed on deck and looked up and then up more and then up even more. They had dropped anchor in the middle of the fifth (not positive of number) fleet and could reach out and touch at least one ship.

  77. This tweet from meteorologist Ed Vallee to go along with what your saying AceMaster
    This rapid strengthening was a concern all along that is now coming to fruition. Not good for coastal FL

  80. See strong cell near Lowell. Wait 15 minutes and see strong cell turn into a WIMP!
    See other cells go POOF! Story of the whole freakin Summer.

  81. It looks like an eye is forming on visible satellite. Would not be surprised if this an 80 mph storm with 5 pm advisory

  82. Stall on 18z NAM takes place east of Virginia as there is no movement between hr 69 -72.
    If other computer guidance shows that will be in great shape here.

      1. Did that explain it, or you still don’t understand?
        Hopefully TK and/or SAK can explain.

        I have a pretty good idea, but I have to leave asap.

        Have to pick up pizza for supper so we are ready for the game tonight. 😀

  85. A bit strange seeing a hurricane heading for a landfall in FL. Been a long, long time. I’m watching TWC coverage. A throwback to my early childhood! It’s great coverage too.

      1. It might be a little bit. It’s firing new convection around the eye after an early afternoon lull. It may make one last push of strengthening in the next several hours before landfall.

  88. NWS policy allows NHC to write advisories on and issue tropical storm
    watches and warnings for post-tropical cyclones, when the system
    continues to pose a significant threat to life and property.
    NHC and the NWS Eastern Region have decided that this option will be
    invoked for Hermine. After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone,
    NHC will continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning
    products for as long as the system remains a significant threat to
    land.

    -Latest NHC discussion. Lessons learned from Sandy being put to the test.

  90. To address the earlier query on why landfalling hurricanes and tropical storms often produce tornadoes…

    These storms basically carry their own ingredients with them. They are made up of bands of showers/t-storms which are often tiny super cells. The storms also are made up of a layer of very warm/moist air just underneath and area of slightly cooler and less moist air which immediately provides instability. And tropical cyclones also have built-in wind sheer because of the rapid change of wind direction with height. So all of the ingredients are there in the lower levels to produce tornadoes, which are often small and short lived, and relatively weak because they are shallow. “Weak” does not mean they cannot cause damage, though most of them are of the EF-0 to weak EF-1 variety. It’s quite rare to see anything greater than EF-1 produced by a tropical system.

    It’s often not mentioned, but this does not occur on land only. There are probably many cases of hurricane and tropical storm spawned tornadoes that have occurred over water and have not been observed because they are so brief and no humans encountered them.

      1. Along these lines, how come
        A tropical system hardly eve produce those tornadoes
        When making landfall up here.

        1. Because almost every tropical system that makes landfall in New England has lost a lot of its tropical characteristics and part of that process is losing a lot of its low level wind shear. It doesn’t completely vanish though. Gloria did produce a tornado in Billerica MA on 9-27-1985.

          It was also suspected that Bob may have produced a small tornado near Billerica and Chelmsford MA on 8-19-1991 but this was later proven to be non-tornadic wind damage.

          1. the church at the center of Billerica by the common gets hit by Funnels all the time as its the highest point in the town.

          2. I can’t prove it, but I strongly suspect we
            had a brief tornado right here in JP during
            Gloria. There were a ton of trees down in my wife’s cousins yard a few house down from us and a bit around the corner. Winds from Gloria at the time were not sufficient to do this kind of damage. Some of his neighbors trees were also down. In examining the damage, including his totally flattened garage, it looked like tornado to me. The trees did not fall all in the same direction. It looked more circular to me. No I didn’t notify the NWS. The only one I mentioned my thoughts to were my wife and son.

            So I will never know, but it would be pretty tough to convince me otherwise. 😀 😀 😀

          3. Makes perfect sense. Btw, what about the Great Hurricane of 1938. I am wondering IF that one
            did spawn some tornadoes. Reporting probably wasn’t very good. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if
            that one did do just that.

          4. Bob produced a funnel cloud in Lowell. I know, I saw it go right by the window of Olney Hall on the campus of ULowell (GG also saw it). Don’t know if it ever touched down as we lost sight of it over the trees behind Olson Hall.

  91. Rain
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016090112/gem_apcpn_eus_34.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016090112/gfs_apcpn_neus_24.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=jma&region=us&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2016090112&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=564

    winds http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016090112/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_neus_4.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016090112/gem_mslp_uv850_neus_16.png canaidan strongest winds for southern New England
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016090112/gfs_mslp_uv850_neus_14.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2016090112/hwrf-p_mslp_uv850_09L_33.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2016090112/gfdl-p_mslp_uv850_09L_14.png

    A mix of rain and 850mb winds

    1. I’m not sure why they bother doing that if they don’t buy it, because someone inevitably will buy it, share it, and then you have another piece of bad info going around the net.

      1. I know Dan well, he’s a friend of mine and a great meteorologist. He wouldn’t mention it at all if he was completely ignoring it.

  96. Matt, you probably got notified that the last comment you posted went to moderation. That was because of the # of links in it. WP flagged it as spam, but since I know it isn’t, I’ve approved it and it’s now posted. 🙂

  98. Oh and for the record, here at JP, NOT a freakin drop from that last line
    of showers/storms. NOT a drop. Perhaps Logan squeezed out a few drops, I don’t know.
    For the day, rain gauge reads: 0.00. Last measurable rain was on 8/22, 10 days ago.

  100. Brady started and has looked pretty pedestrian so far. Can’t even get it done with the 1’s against the Giants scrubs

  101. I am just hoping the Cowboys get through the game without any more injuries. Losing Romo for 6-10 weeks is not good. Dak Prescott has looked good in preseason and hopefully that translates to regular season.

  102. Offense is sucking wind again.
    Defense looks good. I think they may have to win some games 17-10, 13-7 etc etc. Or lose by that margin.
    Still not sure why Jimmy G isn’t playing. Sure, the starter usually doesn’t play in preseason game 4, but this isn’t a normal situation.

  103. The summer is ending the way it began. Fronts pull through, deposit rain to our west, north, and south, but next to nothing in Boston. This evening was a classic example. Clouds looked threatening. My daughter – who just got in from her long car trip – said, “Dad, it’s finally going to rain in Boston.” To which I replied, “No, unfortunately it’s not.” And aside from a feeble drop here and there we received nothing.

    Red-winged blackbirds are preparing for their journey to Mexico and other southern climes. They tend to be among the first birds to return in spring and the first to leave in late summer, early fall. I saw several packing their bags early this morning. The ones that hatched in April and May are now rebellious teenagers, “Dad, do we have to go to friggin’ Mexico, why can’t we stay here, I do’t think I’d mind cold and snow.”

    1. 🙂

      I’ve enjoyed the red winged blackbirds here. We rarely saw them in framingham

      When do hummingbirds leave?

  104. Jimmy needs the work. He goes down, maybe they screwed for 4 games, maybe Brisset can win you one. Brady tears an acl tonight, their screwed for the last 12.

  105. I wouldn’t play TB or JG more than a couple snaps in this game. It’s meaningless. They’re both ready for the season. It’s not complicated at all. It’s football.

          1. It was a joke in the flavor of, let’s give every team a Vince Lombardi trophy just for playing the game. 😀

  106. Stellar forecast by HRRR model on some small cells near the NH Seacoast and adjacent coast of northeastern MA this evening. Right intensity. Right timing. Right movement, or lack-thereof.

  107. Vicki, Hummingbirds migrate early, too. But, there’s more variation with some leaving as soon as August and others in October. The latter like to hang around to see the foliage, while the former prefer to continue to experience 3-H weather as long as possible. Hummingbirds have been migrating farther north in recent decades, as have crickets. I frequently go to Quebec City (where there are no hummingbirds, at least not that I know of, not yet). You did not hear crickets there 25 years ago. Now you do. How much of this is climate related is unknown. One can surmise that general warming trends have something to do with it. I’m not going to pretend to know, because I don’t.

          1. I’m doing ok. My Aunt is still in hospice and still fighting, but it’s only a matter of time. Have my Mom at my house right now for a couple of weeks. She has taken a turn of late with the brain cancer so my brothers and I have helped her get her house on the market and find her a living arrangement that is suitable. Thanks for asking Vicki.

            1. oh Scott that is so much for you and your family. You remain in my thoughts and prayers. I know I can speak for all and tell you that we are always here. It sounds as if you are blessed with a close family. God Bless you all.

              1. Thanks Vicki that means a lot. My Mom has a fighting spirit and positive attitude through all she’s been through and it will continue to get her through this 🙂

  109. quick comment on the game. It’s a preseason game and game #4 at that.
    Given that, Brady took his sweet time getting warmed up, but then he was OK.

    Mingo looks like a defensive beast! And man can he get after the QB.

    Dobson may have increased his trade value because he ain’t sticking around.

    I hope Solder is OK. We can’t afford to have another O-line man go down.

    That’s about all I took from the 1st 1/2.

    Let’s see what Jacoby can do in 1/2 #2.

  110. TK and others, thanks for the commentary on tornadoes during landfalling hurricanes. Excellent info 🙂

  111. JPdave, that IR loop of Hermine looks impressive. Rapid intensification with still some time till landfall. Watch out FL!

    1. Just about where the forecast tracks from today had it. It has a bit of a broad center.

      The intensification rate has been quite slow this evening – top winds only up slightly from 75 to 80 mph, and they may edge up slightly more before landfall. Further intensification is becoming less likely.

        1. Very long lived, but behavior-wise, I have seen nothing overly unusual. Back about 10 years ago, a system like this was largely ignored as a disturbance other than by the NHC, and the rest of world knew about it when it was starting to develop into something.

  113. Why do I have this funny feeling I should have stuck to my guns about that thing never getting far enough north to bring any rain to New England at all? Like, zero rain, anywhere. Just a feeling…

    1. Would be the perfect cap to this dry Summer.

      We shall see.

      Eric said periods of Heavy rain. Right, and remember, I am Santa Claus. 😀

  115. 6z GFS keeps whatever is left of Hermine spinning around in circles south of us through next Thursday. Comes up to about Delmarva peninsula. Should be seeing some pretty good wave action.

    1. Other than people on the water, if anyone in New England listened to the forecast, I doubt they changed anything. They may come home early because of rain Monday.

  117. Scott, I am very sorry to hear about your mother and aunt. I wish you well during this very difficult period.

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