Sunday Forecast

102 Comments

2:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)…
Southern New England will be under the influence of the post tropical system affectionately known as Hermine for the next several days as the center wobbles around offshore of the Delmarva and southern New Jersey, south of New England. High pressure has prevented this system from charging across the waters south to east of New England. It will not be until the end of this 5-day forecast period that the much-decayed center of the system will finally wander off to the east and northeast on its way to the storm graveyard. In the mean time, it will still be fairly strong for a couple days and create lots of rough surf along the New England South Coast, with agitated surf but not as rough on the eastern shores. Though winds will be strong and gusty at times in southern areas, especially near the South Coast, significant wind damage is not likely. I continue to think that rain will be a minor to moderate part of the system, with bands of showers coming across the region in the storm’s fairly broad circulation. Though some downpours are possible, do not expect a widespread, heavy, beneficial rain. It will not evolve into a situation of day after day of overcast and rain.
TODAY: Variably cloudy with most sun north and west of Boston, least sun Cape Cod. Highs 68-75 Cape Cod and South Coast, 76-82 elsewhere, warmest well west of Boston. Wind E 5-15 MPH except up to 20 MPH at times Cape Cod.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of some rain Cape Cod, southeastern MA, and RI. Lows 60-66. Wind E 5-15 MPH interior, 15-30 MPH with higher gusts in coastal areas, strongest Cape Cod and South Coast.
MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of scattered showers. A few downpours possible. Humid. Highs 68-77. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH coast, with higher gusts especially South Coast.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Humid. Windy at times, especially coastal areas. Lows 60-68. Highs 68-78, coolest South Coast.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers possible. Humid. Breezy at times. Lows 60-68. Highs 75-83, coolest coastal areas.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-68. Highs 78-86, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)…
A few showers/thunderstorms possible during the September 9-11 period but likely just isolated and mainly rain-free during this time. Generally dry September 12-13. Warm to hot conditions expected.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)…
Pattern will favor limited shower threats and continued mainly above normal temperatures.

102 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

    1. Thank you, MassBay. You have a great memory. Mac had told me Phil is right handed but plays leftie because his dad taught him mirror image. Fascinating. I’ll show this to my grandson. He will get a kick out of it I know.

  6. Irony: The center of the post-tropical is a couple hundred miles further east than the forecast track had it at this time yesterday. 😉 This thing is going to come fairly close to the original idea in terms of distance offshore, just with the couple days’ hang-out. 😛

      1. Because there was a lot of speculation and worry of the center coming west. The GEM had it landfalling in NJ.

        NOPE!

  8. Daughter arrived to sunny Annapolis yesterday afternoon. No sign of Hermine at all, and it hasn’t rained a drop. Was updated again this morning. While it’s prudent to warn people, the overkill in terms of hype and sensationalism of this particular storm is beyond belief. Sadly, 2 people have lost their lives. But, we need to take a detached look at this storm’s overall impact to the U.S.. On a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being extreme, I’d say this storm is around a 5. In my view, it doesn’t come close to the impact that, say, Nemo (2013) had or even some of our winter storms in 2015. It’s nowhere near as dangerous as Sandy, Irene, and any number of tropical and extra-tropical storms that have hit the Eastern Seaboard and subsequently the interior. I must say that when the reporting on Hermine comes on I tune out or turn off the TV.

    1. I must be missing it thanks to fast forward and lack of coverage on hallmark channel. I did listen to 4 and 7 last night on websites as it was uncharacteristically quiet here. SIL was still pondering attending wedding on cape. 5 website is impossible. Neither 4 or 7 hyped so I can only think it is 5.

  9. DT surprisngly admitted his forecast busted. He still fails to aknowledge the bias of the euro for east coast storms, even with the recent improvements. Still over-amplifies and keeps storms closer to the coast. American models won this one.

    1. Even last night he kept insisting on HISTORIC flooding for the Delmarva and NJ, equaling that of Sandy, poo pooing all other forecasts. Insert foot in mouth with egg all over.

  10. NE is now completely out of the cone for Hermine with no signs of slowing down or coming any further north. See ya!

        1. We were out last night. Dinner and cards and then the Mrs. and I watched Steel Magnolias when we got home.
          Sad ending.

          1. Hehehe. Clearly you need to post your schedule as we all miss you when you are not here 🙂

            I was about to say I’d add steel magnolias to my movie list but I’m not good with sad endings 🙁

            1. If you haven’t see it, add “Great Expectations” to the list. Not the old one, but the newer one with Ethan Hawke.
              It is beyond excellent.

  12. JPD was out fishing this morning. Just got back. 😀
    Beautiful morning. There were some loud clouds to the South, but they went poof.

    12Z NAm and 4KM NAM still want to bring this thing close enough to give us plenty
    of rain as in up to 2 inches in Eastern Sections. We’ll see about that.

    Keeps system pretty intense all the way here. Interesting. Gfs not quite done, but
    does not agree with NAM.

    2. There you are. Yay. And loud clouds? It was just the echo of our smoke detectors going off for 40 minutes at 1:00 am. One went bad and set off the other seven in the line. Was ear splitting but Didn’t think we could be heard all the way to fishing spots.

          1. OK..Bunch of little fish, a 10 or 11 inch bass, a 15 inch pickerel (measured) and a missed bigger pickerel that I was able to see before it spit the hook. Water was extremely low.
            Many normal spots were unfishable. 😀

            1. Is this Charles? I remember in the past when the sudbury around framingham was low that you didn’t notice the same with Charles. This is really not good at all. A shame we couldn’t have a decent amount of rain from hermine

    1. Yup and I suppose it will win out. Still foolishly hopeful that the NAM
      will be correct for once. 😀

      FWIW, the HRRR has Hermine on the move Backing up this way and brings
      precip close through 15 hours. Not sure what happens after that.

  15. Vicki and others, I agree that this storm wasn’t as overhyped by local media as it was nationally. The national forecasts, however, bordered on hysterical. And I don’t mean funny hysterical. It actually harmed local economies, especially on the Maryland and Jersey shores. People canceled vacations, left early, for what … nothing, as in nada. No rain, hardly much wind at all. Maryland, Virginia, and Louisiana were much more impacted by rainstorms and flooding this summer that killed many people. We did hear about this nationally, but somehow the talk surrounding Hermine has been incessant and disproportionate by comparison. At its worst Hermine was a Cat 1 hurricane and not a monster storm.

    2. Good points, Joahua. Did it have a chance of doing damage in those areas? I didn’t watch national news so am just curious. If it has the potential of being bad, then I understand but it it never has the chance then that is just ugly.

      I did hear some people…here I think…mention some had compared damage to sandy which even to me seemed irresponsible. But then that area is just getting back on its feet so it might not take much to set it back. I guess I’ll have to watch in the future. I was following charleston news and they seemed to handle it well but they have been through this enough.

      1. You make a good point. It could have been a damaging storm (hence the warnings), but thankfully veered east and didn’t impact the mid-Atlantic.

  17. JP Dave, I want to ask you whether you’ve noticed a green film of what looks like excessive algae growth on the Charles – probably a result of the drought. There are a lot of dead fish floating in the Esplanade lagoon, as there were last year (which was dry, too). The smell of algae growth is not pungent, but not pleasant, either. I sure hope the NAM is correct (which it won’t be – Boston will be lucky to get a tenth of an inch the coming days), because the waterways need a good dousing.

    1. Nope, in fact where I was, the water was as clear as I have ever seen it.
      Could clearly see the bottom all the way to the other side. No algae growth
      at all. In some areas there was normal plent growth from the bottom growing up to the surface. I was in Dedham and mostly Needham, just beyond the Dedham line near 128. If it were hot enough our, I wouldn’t have hesitate to have a swim, that’s how nice and clean it looked.

        1. Yup, different animal.
          I wonder IF there still aren’t some old sewer connections
          emptying out into the river?? I don’t know for sure.

    2. Joshua there is a lot of green out here but I don’t have the knowledge to understand if it is growth from the bottom that Dave spoke of or algae. It’ll take me a bit to figure this area’s water. Perhaps blackstone does.

  18. Commenting on the forecasting and media coverage of Hermine…

    Honestly, I haven’t watched much local or national news lately, because it’s just nothing I feel a need to see. I watched some of the local weathercasts the past few days and they generally seemed reasonable to me, because we have a lot of good TV mets around here, thankfully. Ultimately, it looks like the mid-Atlantic and SNE are going to get pretty lucky with Hermine; minimal impact for most except for immediate coastal areas. However, had this thing backed into the coast as a hurricane force cyclone, and spun just offshore for several days, as seemed very possible just a couple days ago, it would’ve been a disaster costing tens of billions of dollars. IMO, from an official forecast perspective, everything so far has been justified. What the media does with it, well, I don’t really care anymore, because it’s not something any of us can control.

    People have compared Hermine to Sandy. Not the comparison I prefer, but I can see how they make the connection; it’s not totally far-fetched, especially based on the guidance a couple days ago. Sandy was an unprecedented catastrophe; a storm doesn’t have to be that bad to cause upheaval, not even close. Better safe than sorry.

    1. Thank you for both of your posts WxWatcher. You answered many of my questions. If at any point a system has the potential of being destructive, especially a hurricane along the coast and especially on a major holiday weekend, I truly believe all options have to be presented. It it does not pan out, then the question is did they hype it. I am inclined to think they did not as long as there was a legitimate concern. SAK brought up Eduardo a while ago. It was questionable but people chose to ignore it and there was a mess leaving the cape once they finally reacted. Katrina is another excellent example. Those in power were remarkably irresponsible. And too many people didn’t listen which is sadly human nature. Heck, the blizzard of 78 is an example of people not listening.

      1. Agreed. I think we’re thinking along the same lines. Bad timing, but the warnings got people to react, and I hope the majority are smart enough to know that even though this one will turn out mainly as a false alarm, the next one may not.

        1. That is the catch all. People by now should have enough information to know weather is not predictable far enough ahead ….no matter how good the guidance…to do more than give scenarios. But for some reason human nature wants to only hear the worst case scenario even though many are presented. And then if the worst case doesn’t happen, they fall back on that next time.

  19. A big part of the problem with Hermine is that it was so overhyped at the very beginning. Remember a few weeks (yes, weeks) ago when the GFS showed it as a major hurricane barreling up the East Coast? Then the Euro started showing a major hurricane in the Gulf? Then everything stopped developing it? Then it finally developed? Then the projections of a stalled hurricane off the East Coast? Just so many twists and turns. The lack of predictability and the “big ticket” potential were a perfect storm for media hype. Again, the official forecasts did a very good job I thought of straddling the fine line between appropriate concern and hype.

      1. Thanks Joshua. I definitely understand your angle as well regarding cancelled vacations, economic impact, etc. It’s unfortunate the way the timing worked out. It just comes down to risk management I think. And I don’t doubt you for a second that it was overhyped from the national media; that’s the last place I’d go for weather information.

      2. Joshua I second WxWatchers comments and also completely understand your comments. That area has had enough and to lose any business on a major tourist weekend is something I hate to see happen.

  22. Meanwhile we have had a great stretch of weather. 73.8 here today with 54 DP and a mostly east wind gusting into the teens.

    1. You could be right John. We shall see.

      If the GFS wins the battle of the models, then absolutely Boston gets next
      to nothing, perhaps a tenth or 2. 😀

      If the NAMS win out, then Boston gets wet.

      Euro is about like the GFS at this point.

  25. 72 with 55 dp and wind NE at 17 mph at the airport.

    It’s about 74 here. I have one reading high and one reading low.

  26. I have a theory about hype. It’s about naming and culture. Without a name a storm generally doesn’t get hyped – deserved or not. With a name, a storm invariably gets hyped – deserved or not. The autumnal North Atlantic storms often bring strong gales with hurricane-force gusts, destruction, loss of life, etc … to Ireland, the British Isles, Netherlands, and Scandinavia. I experienced them as both exciting and unnervingly powerful. We just generally don’t have gales like they do. Until very recently none of these storms had names. None got hyped. In fact, the opposite may be true. And this may be more a function of a Northern European phlegmatic attitude than anything else. The Dutch are notoriously even-keeled, for example. If you say “that’s terrific,” or “that’s extraordinary,” they’ll say, “oh, it’s not that special.” Similarly, if you say “that’s terrible,” or “that’s a disaster,” they’ll say, “I’ve seen far worse.”

    1. Yes, this is true. Loved fishing since I was a little kid. My Grandfather first took me when I was 5 years old. Believe me I have tried eating them. I just can’t stand the taste. If the taste is totally masked by sauces or lemon juice or something, I may be able to just barely get it down. So I don’t even try. I stay away from it.

      We went to dinner with 2 other couple last night and one of them sitting beside me had the Haddock. I nearly barfed all over the table just from the smell.
      It’s funny, but I love to catch them, but can’t stand eating them.
      And the smell of the fish just out of the water is far different than the smell
      when they are dead and cooked. 😀

      1. Very ironic. I would be curious if those who actually make a living fishing are like that as well. Thanks for sharing! 🙂

      2. Oddly, I love fish both catching and eating but if I am not eating it And someone else is, I don’t like the smell either. A friend of Macs family was with FAO Rome. He said fresh fish should never have an odor.

  28. NWS says as Hermine approaches, even if we don’t get into the Wind shield of the storm itself, the gradient between Hermine and the High to the North will produce very strong winds anyway.

  29. Was just chatting with a neighbor. There was a really strong wind gust a bit ago. It took down a tree at the top of the hill. Same house lost a tree during the severe storm we had in early July when our across the street neighbors flag pole snapped in half.

    I’m thinking this tree is a result of the dry ground. The earlier one would have been more a result of the winds

      1. It was just one really strong gust. My windows are wide open and it blew stuff around inside about 15 feet from any window.

        Winds more quiet here now.

  30. One of the best weather days of the summer. Very much enjoyed Hurricane Harbor and now the next 4 1/2 hours will be spent in the regular part of Six Flags. 🙂

  31. Three nights in a row I’ve heard what sounds like a huge flock of geese fly north at almost the exact same time. Are they trying to tell us something

    1. There are a lot of Canadian geese in the area right now. They run in patterns and tend to linger for periods of time.

      1. Been seeing them all summer But every night for three at same time is a bit unusual. Son was outside and said at least 50 in this group. Perhaps they are getting ahead of the mass exodus in November 😉

        2. Geese tend to be risk-averse. Not known as venture capitalists or bungee-jumpers. More the nest egg saver types, always prepared for a rainy day.

  32. Holding out hope that at least the Cape can get 1″ out of this. NHC now has Hermine tracking inside of the benchmark, which is a shift west. Not sure what they are seeing.

    1. Wow. Low 70s here with a cool breeze. Sure was a beauty of a day to go to six flags. Or just to enjoy!! 56.3 currently.

  34. I doubt the tropical storm previously known as Hermine gets inside the benchmark, but maybe it will. If it does, I would expect the Cape to get more than an inch of rain, especially given that the storm will stall and the rain and showers will occur over a fairly long stretch of time.

  35. Truly thrilling football game between Notre Dame and Texas in humid Austin, Texas. Basically everything’s happened in this one.

  36. Judging with amateur eyes the storm has reasserted itself if you will over the Atlantic and appears to be heading in a northerly direction which would take it very close to the benchmark. We’ll see. It’ll be an interesting Monday and Tuesday over the Cape and Islands.

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